n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 1 Buy-and-holders intend to say they are "investors", not "speculators". In
addition they look down on short-term traders while highly regard themselves.
Their arguments are from the historical data, which is essentially empirical
. But what is the true cause of this "long-term up legend"? Is it because of
market itself, or because of external powers? A good example is the policy
of pension and 401k, which encourage, and even force retirement saving to
be put into stock market.
I don't know if th | h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 2 You are absolutely right! Would you please write an essay on "The Death of
Equities" and send it to Business Week, Forbes, Times and any other mass
media for publishing? As an investor, I would be very grateful that you can
enlighten the world.
themselves.
empirical
of
policy
I
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: Buy-and-holders intend to say they are "investors", not "speculators". In
: addition they look down on short-term traders while highly regard themselves.
: Their arguments are from the historical data, which is essentially empirical
: . But what is the true cause of this "long-term up legend"? Is it because of
: market itself, or because of external powers? A good example is the policy
: of pension and 401k, which encourage, and even force retirement saving to
: be put into stock market.
: I don't know if th
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 3 I'm serious. If you don't agree, speak your point in a simple way.
can
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You are absolutely right! Would you please write an essay on "The Death of
: Equities" and send it to Business Week, Forbes, Times and any other mass
: media for publishing? As an investor, I would be very grateful that you can
: enlighten the world.
:
: themselves.
: empirical
: of
: policy
: I
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 4 It has to do with 科技生产力 bah?
If you believe in the future people will fly UFO to work, then you
should invest in stocks -- coz UFO is probably $1 billion a piece,
you won't be able to afford it if you just buy CDs.
themselves.
empirical
of
policy
I
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: Buy-and-holders intend to say they are "investors", not "speculators". In
: addition they look down on short-term traders while highly regard themselves.
: Their arguments are from the historical data, which is essentially empirical
: . But what is the true cause of this "long-term up legend"? Is it because of
: market itself, or because of external powers? A good example is the policy
: of pension and 401k, which encourage, and even force retirement saving to
: be put into stock market.
: I don't know if th
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 5 I don't know how many times I have said: business creates value. That
is because the business activity by definition is using the limited
resources to satisfy the unlimited human needs. The only people that
I know of who have no needs have body temperature considerably
below 37 degree and equanimity is their only attribute. They tend to
live inside a box under the ground.
Until the day comes when the majority of the human being are living
in that condition, I don't worry about the business persp
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: I'm serious. If you don't agree, speak your point in a simple way.
:
: can
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 6 When you buy a farm, you want to hold it for at least couple of years. Your
corn harvest is the way to make money from the farm.
When you buy a rental properties, you want tenants come to rent your condos
so that you can make money. You still don't buy condo set A today and exchan
ge for set B tomorrow, you want to hold it.
When you buy a private business, for example, a local McDonald's, you want t
o run it, you want to eat the dividends. You normally don't sell it the next
day or 3 months late
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: I'm serious. If you don't agree, speak your point in a simple way.
:
: can
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 7 I agree business creates value. No problem at all.
But how come this point could justify stock market will go up in a long run?
Are you assuming the value being created will serve as return. But in which
form, dividend? How much is the total dividend and how much is the
transaction cost in the whole market scale? I don't have specific data but I
highly suspect this is a 0-sum even negative-sum game.
For the purpose of raising funds, what's the necessity of stock market? Why
can't we just stick t
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: I don't know how many times I have said: business creates value. That
: is because the business activity by definition is using the limited
: resources to satisfy the unlimited human needs. The only people that
: I know of who have no needs have body temperature considerably
: below 37 degree and equanimity is their only attribute. They tend to
: live inside a box under the ground.
: Until the day comes when the majority of the human being are living
: in that condition, I don't worry about the business persp
| k****t
发帖数: 12697 | 8 the economy as a whole will grow - more people, higher living standard,
consuming more, producing more, more services... even you don't need more,
companies will tell you you need this you need that. on smaller scale,
geographically or by sector there can be perpetual declining but as whole it
will grow - will not grow to the eternity but as far as the days I can live
to, I believe it will grow. | b****e
发帖数: 460 | 9 You think about a cow. A cow makes milk just like a store makes money.
And the businesses of the stock market as a whole is a farm with thousands o
f cows, the milk output of the farm is approximately the summation of the mi
lk provided by each cow. The businesses of the stock market outputs money, i
t can either retain it or it will distribute it as div.
So, here, if there is no stock market at all. Businesses are still businesse
s. If there is no livestock exchange, cows will still make milk.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: I agree business creates value. No problem at all.
: But how come this point could justify stock market will go up in a long run?
: Are you assuming the value being created will serve as return. But in which
: form, dividend? How much is the total dividend and how much is the
: transaction cost in the whole market scale? I don't have specific data but I
: highly suspect this is a 0-sum even negative-sum game.
: For the purpose of raising funds, what's the necessity of stock market? Why
: can't we just stick t
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 10 My point is, I don't see the connection b/w economy growth and market growth.
If you are saying, in the past economy grew and so did market, I'd say it
could be two independent events, not necessarily correlated to each other.
China stock market is such a perfect example. But does the connection really
exist in "mature" market like US? I don't know.
it
live
【在 k****t 的大作中提到】
: the economy as a whole will grow - more people, higher living standard,
: consuming more, producing more, more services... even you don't need more,
: companies will tell you you need this you need that. on smaller scale,
: geographically or by sector there can be perpetual declining but as whole it
: will grow - will not grow to the eternity but as far as the days I can live
: to, I believe it will grow.
| | | b****e
发帖数: 460 | 11 In the short run, market doesn't represent economy very well. However, in th
e long run, markets do follow the economy. In the short run, a leaf will go
with wind higher and lower. In the long run, the leaf will get to ground.
And, actually, as an investor to make money, you don't need a market that fo
llows the economy.
growth.
really
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: My point is, I don't see the connection b/w economy growth and market growth.
: If you are saying, in the past economy grew and so did market, I'd say it
: could be two independent events, not necessarily correlated to each other.
: China stock market is such a perfect example. But does the connection really
: exist in "mature" market like US? I don't know.
:
: it
: live
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 12 I think that's why equity theory is plausible.
If you have a car, then you have a car that you can drive. But what if you
just have a wheel? Although you can claim you have a piece of car, it's
useless. Although your neighbor has another wheel, your buddy has the engine
, your colleague has the transmission. You guys can't just say you have a
car. Or, even if you can, none of you can actually drive it. You guys even
may have conflict of interests to prevent anyone from driving it.
The reality is
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: When you buy a farm, you want to hold it for at least couple of years. Your
: corn harvest is the way to make money from the farm.
: When you buy a rental properties, you want tenants come to rent your condos
: so that you can make money. You still don't buy condo set A today and exchan
: ge for set B tomorrow, you want to hold it.
: When you buy a private business, for example, a local McDonald's, you want t
: o run it, you want to eat the dividends. You normally don't sell it the next
: day or 3 months late
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 13 You misunderstood the major point of stocks. With a car, you can be translat
ed from one place to another. With a wheel, you can't. With a whole business
, you can get dividend as return of your investment. With slices of a busine
ss, you still get dividend as return of your investment. You get the similar
function by dividing it.
engine
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: I think that's why equity theory is plausible.
: If you have a car, then you have a car that you can drive. But what if you
: just have a wheel? Although you can claim you have a piece of car, it's
: useless. Although your neighbor has another wheel, your buddy has the engine
: , your colleague has the transmission. You guys can't just say you have a
: car. Or, even if you can, none of you can actually drive it. You guys even
: may have conflict of interests to prevent anyone from driving it.
: The reality is
| k****t
发帖数: 12697 | 14 growing economy generates more wealth. the money needs a place to stay. as
you said in the "mature" market more money will be funneled to stock market.
in US people have less savings but more "investing". 50% have stocks. I am
sure far less that 50% in China own stocks.
as well as more money is funneled to stock market, the index will go up. it
is like a giant ponzi scheme. | n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 15 You forgot another possibility. The milk squeezer may drink a lot and even
take a bucket back to home, like those WS executives simply put the money
into their pocket even when they have big loss in biz.
So, unless you yourself squeeze the milk and take care of the cow, which
means you need to know both skills. The guy you hire (and actually someone
hire it for you) could steal the milk and make the cow sick and report you a
false health report.
o
mi
i
businesse
e
commis
busi
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: You think about a cow. A cow makes milk just like a store makes money.
: And the businesses of the stock market as a whole is a farm with thousands o
: f cows, the milk output of the farm is approximately the summation of the mi
: lk provided by each cow. The businesses of the stock market outputs money, i
: t can either retain it or it will distribute it as div.
: So, here, if there is no stock market at all. Businesses are still businesse
: s. If there is no livestock exchange, cows will still make milk.
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 16 Right, sometimes, you get phony things. That's why you need to do your own f
undamental analysis. You hire an honest guy who gets a fair share.
You need to look at your cards while playing cards.
a
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: You forgot another possibility. The milk squeezer may drink a lot and even
: take a bucket back to home, like those WS executives simply put the money
: into their pocket even when they have big loss in biz.
: So, unless you yourself squeeze the milk and take care of the cow, which
: means you need to know both skills. The guy you hire (and actually someone
: hire it for you) could steal the milk and make the cow sick and report you a
: false health report.
:
: o
: mi
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 17 Can you decide the dividend?
Can you trust the ones deciding it, after seeing such a mess?
translat
business
busine
similar
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: You misunderstood the major point of stocks. With a car, you can be translat
: ed from one place to another. With a wheel, you can't. With a whole business
: , you can get dividend as return of your investment. With slices of a busine
: ss, you still get dividend as return of your investment. You get the similar
: function by dividing it.
:
: engine
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 18 You know, in investment world, you are hiring someone else to make money for
you. So, you have to trust someone. That's the way investment works. Of cou
rse, you don't blindly trust everyone.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: Can you decide the dividend?
: Can you trust the ones deciding it, after seeing such a mess?
:
: translat
: business
: busine
: similar
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 19 The thing is, with little power and little knowledge, how can you find the
good company and good executive. Most of time you just follow others' words.
Remember this is a info asymmetric market. The company insider know much
more than you. It's like 2nd-hand car market example. The final result is
bad cars pushing out good cars from the market.
Even buying funds have the same issue. You don't know who's the next Madorf.
And these standards from Morning star is not reliable as well. I remember I
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Right, sometimes, you get phony things. That's why you need to do your own f
: undamental analysis. You hire an honest guy who gets a fair share.
: You need to look at your cards while playing cards.
:
: a
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 20 The thing is, you need the ability to tell which car is a good one. You need
the ability to tell which business makes milk. You don't even need insider
information at all. There are more important information sitting there waiti
ng us to find out. And, the beauty of investment is if you don't understand
it, you don't have to touch it.
words.
Madorf.
I
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: The thing is, with little power and little knowledge, how can you find the
: good company and good executive. Most of time you just follow others' words.
: Remember this is a info asymmetric market. The company insider know much
: more than you. It's like 2nd-hand car market example. The final result is
: bad cars pushing out good cars from the market.
: Even buying funds have the same issue. You don't know who's the next Madorf.
: And these standards from Morning star is not reliable as well. I remember I
| | | n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 21 How much you know your stock's executive team and your MF's manager,
excluding the info from news and reports?
It's impractical to really know someone. You have to trust but you can't
find such one. What you do, I think, is to pick up someone who looks more
trustful. But you don't have a solid ground, do you?
for
cou
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: You know, in investment world, you are hiring someone else to make money for
: you. So, you have to trust someone. That's the way investment works. Of cou
: rse, you don't blindly trust everyone.
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 22 You never get the all information. Like to play bridge, you always get parti
al information, and if odds favor you, you act.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: How much you know your stock's executive team and your MF's manager,
: excluding the info from news and reports?
: It's impractical to really know someone. You have to trust but you can't
: find such one. What you do, I think, is to pick up someone who looks more
: trustful. But you don't have a solid ground, do you?
:
: for
: cou
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 23 No, I do have my own understanding. Investment or speculation, they are just
two different types of gambling, requiring different skills, like cash game
and tournament in poker. The whole market go up just because more players
are playing this game.
Back to the car example. If you assume buyers can tell what is good car and
what is not, how could bad cars push out good cars from the 2nd-hand market?
I don't see how you tell the good company. Maybe you have some secret recipe
. :)
need
insider
w
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: The thing is, you need the ability to tell which car is a good one. You need
: the ability to tell which business makes milk. You don't even need insider
: information at all. There are more important information sitting there waiti
: ng us to find out. And, the beauty of investment is if you don't understand
: it, you don't have to touch it.
:
: words.
: Madorf.
: I
| n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 24 Well, from these words I do see a trader. :)
parti
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: You never get the all information. Like to play bridge, you always get parti
: al information, and if odds favor you, you act.
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 25 man, if you consider every risk-taker as a trader or a gambler, you are
going too far. As a matter of fact, you live through every day by a
matter of probabilities. But you call that life, you don't call that
gamble, right?
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: Well, from these words I do see a trader. :)
:
: parti
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 26 Just because governments are always more or less corrupted, you don't
say a country doesn't need a government. Same for capital markets.
I have a way to get you out. And I believe it's a great way and I would
like to invite everybody think about it, it will benefit a lot even if
you are a trader, at least it benefits me a lot.
Think seriously, really seriously, otherwise it would be meaningless.
Assume you have 500 Million dollar, and that's all the money you
have, what do you do with it?
run?
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: I agree business creates value. No problem at all.
: But how come this point could justify stock market will go up in a long run?
: Are you assuming the value being created will serve as return. But in which
: form, dividend? How much is the total dividend and how much is the
: transaction cost in the whole market scale? I don't have specific data but I
: highly suspect this is a 0-sum even negative-sum game.
: For the purpose of raising funds, what's the necessity of stock market? Why
: can't we just stick t
| g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 27 Inflation and new tech, or simply because we dig more stuff from
the earth.
themselves.
empirical
of
policy
I
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: Buy-and-holders intend to say they are "investors", not "speculators". In
: addition they look down on short-term traders while highly regard themselves.
: Their arguments are from the historical data, which is essentially empirical
: . But what is the true cause of this "long-term up legend"? Is it because of
: market itself, or because of external powers? A good example is the policy
: of pension and 401k, which encourage, and even force retirement saving to
: be put into stock market.
: I don't know if th
| u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 28 Very good discussion. I agree with a previous post at "...as well as more
money is funneled to stock market, the index will go up. it
is like a giant ponzi scheme".
As to your scenario, I would invest it in a business - a business which can
get me real cash flow each and every quarter and I can dictate if that money
to be retained by the business or go to my bank account. In reality, I used
to work for a BRA company, I studied their income statements carefully (not
a public company, so won't be
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Just because governments are always more or less corrupted, you don't
: say a country doesn't need a government. Same for capital markets.
: I have a way to get you out. And I believe it's a great way and I would
: like to invite everybody think about it, it will benefit a lot even if
: you are a trader, at least it benefits me a lot.
: Think seriously, really seriously, otherwise it would be meaningless.
: Assume you have 500 Million dollar, and that's all the money you
: have, what do you do with it?
:
: run?
| m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 29
But then we do also stipulate that with "a government is a necessary
evil." and we don't say the same thing about the financial market.
Maybe OP's point does have some merit in it. Maybe the idea of publicly
owned companies is indeed fundamentally flawed - just as flawed as
the idea of socialism and communism.
"What would I do if I had a million dollars? 2 chicks at the same time!"
Seriously though, if I had 500 million dollars, I would put it in some safe
vehicles, retire, live off of the 2%
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Just because governments are always more or less corrupted, you don't
: say a country doesn't need a government. Same for capital markets.
: I have a way to get you out. And I believe it's a great way and I would
: like to invite everybody think about it, it will benefit a lot even if
: you are a trader, at least it benefits me a lot.
: Think seriously, really seriously, otherwise it would be meaningless.
: Assume you have 500 Million dollar, and that's all the money you
: have, what do you do with it?
:
: run?
| b****e
发帖数: 460 | 30 Right, real money is the point. When you have a cow, you want the real milk.
can
money
used
not
is
【在 u****d 的大作中提到】
: Very good discussion. I agree with a previous post at "...as well as more
: money is funneled to stock market, the index will go up. it
: is like a giant ponzi scheme".
: As to your scenario, I would invest it in a business - a business which can
: get me real cash flow each and every quarter and I can dictate if that money
: to be retained by the business or go to my bank account. In reality, I used
: to work for a BRA company, I studied their income statements carefully (not
: a public company, so won't be
| | | b****e
发帖数: 460 | 31 Investment and speculation are 2 different types of gambling. Investment is
I put my money betting on that a piece of leaf will drop on the floor
someday somewhere. Speculation is I put my money betting on when or where
will the leaf drop on the floor, or even betting on where will the leaf be 2
seconds later.
From the beginning, you whole point was about a vivid stock market. What if
we can only trade one week a year, like most livestock market? What if every
individual can only trade 20 times
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: No, I do have my own understanding. Investment or speculation, they are just
: two different types of gambling, requiring different skills, like cash game
: and tournament in poker. The whole market go up just because more players
: are playing this game.
: Back to the car example. If you assume buyers can tell what is good car and
: what is not, how could bad cars push out good cars from the 2nd-hand market?
: I don't see how you tell the good company. Maybe you have some secret recipe
: . :)
:
: need
| s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 32 hehe, I knew somebody will say this. Come on, be more ambitious.
To make it more relevant, let's assume we are not somebody who is
confident to run a business, like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs.
safe
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
:
: But then we do also stipulate that with "a government is a necessary
: evil." and we don't say the same thing about the financial market.
: Maybe OP's point does have some merit in it. Maybe the idea of publicly
: owned companies is indeed fundamentally flawed - just as flawed as
: the idea of socialism and communism.
: "What would I do if I had a million dollars? 2 chicks at the same time!"
: Seriously though, if I had 500 million dollars, I would put it in some safe
: vehicles, retire, live off of the 2%
| m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 33
That is not to say that I don't trust the capital market as a
whole or the idea of long-term investing in general. I still do
believe that the economic growth is correlated to growths in
markets.
I just wanted to point out that the inability of shareholders
to have material influence in the public companies they own
is actually a real issue.
Of course, the common answer (and a legitimate one at that) to
that is "so don't buy those shares". But then that answer kind
invalidates the idea of publi
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
:
: But then we do also stipulate that with "a government is a necessary
: evil." and we don't say the same thing about the financial market.
: Maybe OP's point does have some merit in it. Maybe the idea of publicly
: owned companies is indeed fundamentally flawed - just as flawed as
: the idea of socialism and communism.
: "What would I do if I had a million dollars? 2 chicks at the same time!"
: Seriously though, if I had 500 million dollars, I would put it in some safe
: vehicles, retire, live off of the 2%
| h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 34 The things that you worried can be corrected by the equity market itself.
Yes, everyone could be running a ponzi game, but how long can they run
it? How long did Madoff run? Can he extended it for 30 years? 100 years?
Overall, investor would demand higher sustained value creation over a
long period of time, otherwise those bad businesses and capital will say
goodbye to each other.
Yes, in the worst possible scenario, if everyone just blindly buy-and-hold
then we will have trouble. But we have gr
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: I think that's why equity theory is plausible.
: If you have a car, then you have a car that you can drive. But what if you
: just have a wheel? Although you can claim you have a piece of car, it's
: useless. Although your neighbor has another wheel, your buddy has the engine
: , your colleague has the transmission. You guys can't just say you have a
: car. Or, even if you can, none of you can actually drive it. You guys even
: may have conflict of interests to prevent anyone from driving it.
: The reality is
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 35 Give $250 millions to Wall Street big cow to manage for me.
Leave $200 millions to my children to play with.
Eat interest out of the rest $50 millions for the rest of my life.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: hehe, I knew somebody will say this. Come on, be more ambitious.
: To make it more relevant, let's assume we are not somebody who is
: confident to run a business, like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs.
:
: safe
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 36 There are laws preventing people from doing that -- i.e., once caught
cheating, you will go to jail.
Because of that type of 威慑力，the majority of population don't cheat.
(Like me.)
Therefore, I don't worry too much in trusting the guys who make
financial reports, just as I would trust my LD or children on the
things I ask them to do.
engine
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: I think that's why equity theory is plausible.
: If you have a car, then you have a car that you can drive. But what if you
: just have a wheel? Although you can claim you have a piece of car, it's
: useless. Although your neighbor has another wheel, your buddy has the engine
: , your colleague has the transmission. You guys can't just say you have a
: car. Or, even if you can, none of you can actually drive it. You guys even
: may have conflict of interests to prevent anyone from driving it.
: The reality is
| p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 37 所有权和经营权分离就会出现你说的问题，和stock market无关
你这种思维属于家族式企业的思维方式
engine
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: I think that's why equity theory is plausible.
: If you have a car, then you have a car that you can drive. But what if you
: just have a wheel? Although you can claim you have a piece of car, it's
: useless. Although your neighbor has another wheel, your buddy has the engine
: , your colleague has the transmission. You guys can't just say you have a
: car. Or, even if you can, none of you can actually drive it. You guys even
: may have conflict of interests to prevent anyone from driving it.
: The reality is
| p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 38 学过马克思的资本论就应该知道，资本靠剥削剩余价值获得利润，而stock market就是
融资的场所
themselves.
empirical
of
policy
I
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: Buy-and-holders intend to say they are "investors", not "speculators". In
: addition they look down on short-term traders while highly regard themselves.
: Their arguments are from the historical data, which is essentially empirical
: . But what is the true cause of this "long-term up legend"? Is it because of
: market itself, or because of external powers? A good example is the policy
: of pension and 401k, which encourage, and even force retirement saving to
: be put into stock market.
: I don't know if th
| u*****n
发帖数: 160 | 39 there are three fundamental factors that drive long-term prosperity,
hence stock market (for example s&p index):
1) population growth,
2) efficiency,
3) and inflation, which is actually not true-growth at all, only in feeling.
Long-term profitability (for example measured in term of
margin ratio) is very stable, around 6% (if I remember correctly).
Very few companies can sustain double digits profitability over a very long
(10 years) owing to competition. Such high-profitable companies such as K | p********t
发帖数: 1219 | 40 In fact, there are tons of publications with similar view points.
can
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: You are absolutely right! Would you please write an essay on "The Death of
: Equities" and send it to Business Week, Forbes, Times and any other mass
: media for publishing? As an investor, I would be very grateful that you can
: enlighten the world.
:
: themselves.
: empirical
: of
: policy
: I
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