o*****c
发帖数: 241 | |
a****i
发帖数: 46 | 2 What's the best way to hedge against USD?
I still think gold is best, as other countries will likely to debase as well.
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 3 sp500 is better than gold.
As WB said, human intelligent is the best thing to retain your purchasing
power. You either invest on your own brain, or you invest on other people's
brains.
well.
【在 a****i 的大作中提到】
: What's the best way to hedge against USD?
: I still think gold is best, as other countries will likely to debase as well.
|
h*9
发帖数: 38 | 4 A country can either manipulate its interest rate or exchange rate. BUT,NOT
BOTH. Fed is messing with interest rate with $ printed from thin air. A
dangerous proposition... an inflated asset price (stock or real estate like
70?) ..., does it do any good in the long term? Not sure. What if it really
sink $, the best all time export of this country?
Alchemy, alchemy...
Better to hold energy and gold as hedge.
btw, about suspending M2M rule, why bother do any accounting at all, just let them report |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 5 Based on simple chart analysis, SPY is below declining 200MA,
and GLD is above climbing 200MA. I'd take gold.
s
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: sp500 is better than gold.
: As WB said, human intelligent is the best thing to retain your purchasing
: power. You either invest on your own brain, or you invest on other people's
: brains.
:
: well.
|
a****i
发帖数: 46 | 6 That's theoretically correct, but it can also be said a year ago.
If stagflation comes up as I expect, I can't imagine stock would perform
well.
s
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: sp500 is better than gold.
: As WB said, human intelligent is the best thing to retain your purchasing
: power. You either invest on your own brain, or you invest on other people's
: brains.
:
: well.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 7 Let's look at 100 year chart
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Based on simple chart analysis, SPY is below declining 200MA,
: and GLD is above climbing 200MA. I'd take gold.
:
: s
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 8 人都活不过100岁，看100年的图有何用？
留子孙吗？没必要，看看中国富起来的一代，二代多半是败家。
任何事务都有兴衰周期，人，国家，社会都是一样，你没有力量改变。
美国的现在和上世纪初的英国，17－18世纪的中国地位类似
繁荣之后就是衰败，历史之必然，股市也一样。也许你的股票能创新高
但对应股票价值的购买力却未必会有同样的高度了。
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Let's look at 100 year chart
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 9 您的论据来源于您的历史知识的“总结”
说明您也同意历史知识是可以被用来借鉴的
我看100年的图只是为了从历史上证明一下而已
我在之前应该说过投资大脑的重要性
请您再读一遍
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 人都活不过100岁，看100年的图有何用？
: 留子孙吗？没必要，看看中国富起来的一代，二代多半是败家。
: 任何事务都有兴衰周期，人，国家，社会都是一样，你没有力量改变。
: 美国的现在和上世纪初的英国，17－18世纪的中国地位类似
: 繁荣之后就是衰败，历史之必然，股市也一样。也许你的股票能创新高
: 但对应股票价值的购买力却未必会有同样的高度了。
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 10 //nod, 还是移民索马里比较有前途，现在海盗业好像很发达，而且那地方垄断
一个巨长海峡。。。
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 人都活不过100岁，看100年的图有何用？
: 留子孙吗？没必要，看看中国富起来的一代，二代多半是败家。
: 任何事务都有兴衰周期，人，国家，社会都是一样，你没有力量改变。
: 美国的现在和上世纪初的英国，17－18世纪的中国地位类似
: 繁荣之后就是衰败，历史之必然，股市也一样。也许你的股票能创新高
: 但对应股票价值的购买力却未必会有同样的高度了。
|
|
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 11 在哪里都好，开心就好了。拿命换钱，本末倒置。
挣多少钱都是个数字，死了啥都带不走的。
理财的目的是insure 有生之年，如果拖家带口，万一本人不幸早逝或残疾，可以i
nsure他们的生活，也就足够了。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: //nod, 还是移民索马里比较有前途，现在海盗业好像很发达，而且那地方垄断
: 一个巨长海峡。。。
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 12 btw, what's so good about holding metals or stones rather than holding
hardworking people and learning machines?
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 您的论据来源于您的历史知识的“总结”
: 说明您也同意历史知识是可以被用来借鉴的
: 我看100年的图只是为了从历史上证明一下而已
: 我在之前应该说过投资大脑的重要性
: 请您再读一遍
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 13 because without rice, you cannot cook.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: btw, what's so good about holding metals or stones rather than holding
: hardworking people and learning machines?
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 14 I fully aware the importance of precious metal, I personally have physical
precious metals. However, it only works well when you are in a society where
money system is TOTALLY malfunctioned. And, I guess at that time, people
will takeover all your belongings including those yellow things with their
arms.
However, I won't bet too much on those stones. I bet on human beings'
ability to survive. Now we say during 1930s, it was smart to go all-in when
DJIA was 42. However, when history really repeat
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: because without rice, you cannot cook.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 15 But that's a strong reason for speculators to buy gold at this point ah.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: I fully aware the importance of precious metal, I personally have physical
: precious metals. However, it only works well when you are in a society where
: money system is TOTALLY malfunctioned. And, I guess at that time, people
: will takeover all your belongings including those yellow things with their
: arms.
: However, I won't bet too much on those stones. I bet on human beings'
: ability to survive. Now we say during 1930s, it was smart to go all-in when
: DJIA was 42. However, when history really repeat
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 16 I was a silver fan. But, after some intensive study, I feel I still don't
quite understand silver, so as gold. So, I steer away from it.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: But that's a strong reason for speculators to buy gold at this point ah.
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 17 I can't speak for 100 years. Actually, I wouldn't care what will happen
in more 3 years.
Gold is in a big bull market since 2001, while we have no gain in stocks
for the last decade.
when
" |
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 18 That's perfectly fine. What do you think the value of a troy ounce gold is?
and why? Or at least how much you think it worths? and why? For example, a
rim of letter paper. The paper experts can tell me how much is the cost to
deliver a rim of paper from APP to LA, how much is the cost to deliver it to
NY..., and how much is the cost to manufacture the paper...
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: I can't speak for 100 years. Actually, I wouldn't care what will happen
: in more 3 years.
: Gold is in a big bull market since 2001, while we have no gain in stocks
: for the last decade.
: when
: "
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 19 Should i care? I speculate gold will stay well above $1000 by the end of
the year, that's all it matters for me. Do you check a company inside out
before buying its stock?
?
to
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: That's perfectly fine. What do you think the value of a troy ounce gold is?
: and why? Or at least how much you think it worths? and why? For example, a
: rim of letter paper. The paper experts can tell me how much is the cost to
: deliver a rim of paper from APP to LA, how much is the cost to deliver it to
: NY..., and how much is the cost to manufacture the paper...
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 20 I read its 10Ks, if possible, I read its competitors 10Ks, and I estimate at
least how much it worths from multiple approaches.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Should i care? I speculate gold will stay well above $1000 by the end of
: the year, that's all it matters for me. Do you check a company inside out
: before buying its stock?
:
: ?
: to
|
|
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 21 Hehe, my ultimate goal is to track the index by speculating without even
knowing what company a ticker represents -- purely based on risk management
and hoping the volatility is big.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Should i care? I speculate gold will stay well above $1000 by the end of
: the year, that's all it matters for me. Do you check a company inside out
: before buying its stock?
:
: ?
: to
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 22 You read 10K and I read chart, different styles.
There are more than 1 ways to make money in stock market.
at
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: I read its 10Ks, if possible, I read its competitors 10Ks, and I estimate at
: least how much it worths from multiple approaches.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 23 She'll say she do check inside out.
Then you'll argue why it's even possible.
Then she'll say public information is all she need.
Then you'll list some example when inside info rules.
Then she'll argue that's because you didn't check public data carefully.
Then you'll say what if the data is fake.
Then she'll say don't touch things you don't understand.
Of course, during this course she'll beat you (or bore you, or sick you)
to hell by quoting WB's words here and there.
Please kind let me accele
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Should i care? I speculate gold will stay well above $1000 by the end of
: the year, that's all it matters for me. Do you check a company inside out
: before buying its stock?
:
: ?
: to
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 24 Thank you.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: She'll say she do check inside out.
: Then you'll argue why it's even possible.
: Then she'll say public information is all she need.
: Then you'll list some example when inside info rules.
: Then she'll argue that's because you didn't check public data carefully.
: Then you'll say what if the data is fake.
: Then she'll say don't touch things you don't understand.
: Of course, during this course she'll beat you (or bore you, or sick you)
: to hell by quoting WB's words here and there.
: Please kind let me accele
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 25 You are welcome.
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: Thank you.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 26 Btw, the points you presented might be misleading.
My understanding about insider info is that I don't put my investment rely
on it. That is, even the "insider info" turned 180 degree, I won't change my
investment at all.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: She'll say she do check inside out.
: Then you'll argue why it's even possible.
: Then she'll say public information is all she need.
: Then you'll list some example when inside info rules.
: Then she'll argue that's because you didn't check public data carefully.
: Then you'll say what if the data is fake.
: Then she'll say don't touch things you don't understand.
: Of course, during this course she'll beat you (or bore you, or sick you)
: to hell by quoting WB's words here and there.
: Please kind let me accele
|
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 27
where
+1. That's what I keep telling my friends too. I mean
I'm not against buying gold as part of the diversification,
but thinking that the only safe way now is to convert
the majority of one's wealth into physical gold is just
totally panick-mode.
If we are worried about our society is going to
completely melt down tomorrow, post-apocalyptic,
nuclear winter style, then we'd do better stocking
up guns and ammunitions than gold.
Short of that, there simply isn't enough physical gold
to provid
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: I fully aware the importance of precious metal, I personally have physical
: precious metals. However, it only works well when you are in a society where
: money system is TOTALLY malfunctioned. And, I guess at that time, people
: will takeover all your belongings including those yellow things with their
: arms.
: However, I won't bet too much on those stones. I bet on human beings'
: ability to survive. Now we say during 1930s, it was smart to go all-in when
: DJIA was 42. However, when history really repeat
|
u*****n
发帖数: 160 | |
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 29 货币，一般等价物，这种特殊商品能直接和普通商品比较么？
你扛着一箱纸上街能轻易换到吃的用的么？
?
to
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: That's perfectly fine. What do you think the value of a troy ounce gold is?
: and why? Or at least how much you think it worths? and why? For example, a
: rim of letter paper. The paper experts can tell me how much is the cost to
: deliver a rim of paper from APP to LA, how much is the cost to deliver it to
: NY..., and how much is the cost to manufacture the paper...
|
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 30
I do think it very dangerous to trade these things solely based
on chart reading. No charts would have told you the Fed was
going to buy $300Bln treasuries. And if you happened
to have been on the wrong side of a gold trade this past
wednesday, you would've been seriously burned.
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: Should i care? I speculate gold will stay well above $1000 by the end of
: the year, that's all it matters for me. Do you check a company inside out
: before buying its stock?
:
: ?
: to
|
|
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 31 一般等价物的定义是什么？我如果不知道一个物品的价值，我如何确定价格？我如何进
行交换？
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 货币，一般等价物，这种特殊商品能直接和普通商品比较么？
: 你扛着一箱纸上街能轻易换到吃的用的么？
:
: ?
: to
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 32 So nobody agrees with me that it's possible for a trader not to read
the chart and still beat the index? Just pure discipline -- limit
orders + careful risk management -- that's it.
Of course, only if the market environment continues to be in a piggish
mode.
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
:
: I do think it very dangerous to trade these things solely based
: on chart reading. No charts would have told you the Fed was
: going to buy $300Bln treasuries. And if you happened
: to have been on the wrong side of a gold trade this past
: wednesday, you would've been seriously burned.
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 33 I have given up a large part of chart reading.
The only charts I read are long-term historical charts which cover at
least decades. In some sense, I don't even look at current price any
more.
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
:
: I do think it very dangerous to trade these things solely based
: on chart reading. No charts would have told you the Fed was
: going to buy $300Bln treasuries. And if you happened
: to have been on the wrong side of a gold trade this past
: wednesday, you would've been seriously burned.
|
m******t
发帖数: 2416 | 34
Define "not to read the chart". Surely you don't mean literally
never set your eyes on a chart.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: So nobody agrees with me that it's possible for a trader not to read
: the chart and still beat the index? Just pure discipline -- limit
: orders + careful risk management -- that's it.
: Of course, only if the market environment continues to be in a piggish
: mode.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 35 Literally means "no chart".
Only read the bid/offer prices, market cap, and some basic statistics
(like 1-6 month yield, 1-10 year yield, standard deviation of curves,
dividends, etc.).
【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
:
: Define "not to read the chart". Surely you don't mean literally
: never set your eyes on a chart.
|
t**3
发帖数: 421 | 36 生命有限，还是老话
太久的trend用处不大。
我不能预测100年以后黄金的美元价格是多少，但我可以100% sure,all of us will
die.
我认为，合理的以年为单位的trend才是真正有用的，再久借鉴意义不大。
当然，历史上的事件仍然有借鉴意义，那是片段，比如历次泡沫的出现，其实特征全一样
以后也还会不断再现
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I have given up a large part of chart reading.
: The only charts I read are long-term historical charts which cover at
: least decades. In some sense, I don't even look at current price any
: more.
|
d*****z
发帖数: 114 | 37 Good summary.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: She'll say she do check inside out.
: Then you'll argue why it's even possible.
: Then she'll say public information is all she need.
: Then you'll list some example when inside info rules.
: Then she'll argue that's because you didn't check public data carefully.
: Then you'll say what if the data is fake.
: Then she'll say don't touch things you don't understand.
: Of course, during this course she'll beat you (or bore you, or sick you)
: to hell by quoting WB's words here and there.
: Please kind let me accele
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 38 一百年的数据里面可以有10年的数据的信息，甚至有每一年的信息
但是10年的数据里面没有100年的信息
一样
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 生命有限，还是老话
: 太久的trend用处不大。
: 我不能预测100年以后黄金的美元价格是多少，但我可以100% sure,all of us will
: die.
: 我认为，合理的以年为单位的trend才是真正有用的，再久借鉴意义不大。
: 当然，历史上的事件仍然有借鉴意义，那是片段，比如历次泡沫的出现，其实特征全一样
: 以后也还会不断再现
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 39 Interesting, I totally agree "太久的trend用处不大". I would rather say
historical trend is pretty much meaningless.
I actually look into long-term historical chart for highest and lowest
points.
【在 t**3 的大作中提到】
: 生命有限，还是老话
: 太久的trend用处不大。
: 我不能预测100年以后黄金的美元价格是多少，但我可以100% sure,all of us will
: die.
: 我认为，合理的以年为单位的trend才是真正有用的，再久借鉴意义不大。
: 当然，历史上的事件仍然有借鉴意义，那是片段，比如历次泡沫的出现，其实特征全一样
: 以后也还会不断再现
|
n**********w
发帖数: 620 | 40 关键部位会受伤的
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
|
|
|
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 41 价格不是由你确定的，价格是由市场决定的
【在 b****e 的大作中提到】
: 一般等价物的定义是什么？我如果不知道一个物品的价值，我如何确定价格？我如何进
: 行交换？
|
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 42 老大现在投资是着眼于多长的周期？
will
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Interesting, I totally agree "太久的trend用处不大". I would rather say
: historical trend is pretty much meaningless.
: I actually look into long-term historical chart for highest and lowest
: points.
|
b****e
发帖数: 460 | 43 价格是市场定的
但是我要做投资，我首先得估算一个投资产品的价值
估算出了价值才能确定现在的市场价格是不是有投资的意义
短期内，市场价格可以远离价值，因为市场价格是你我这样的人肉订出来的，肯定就有
偏差，而且有时偏差还会很大
长期来讲，大部分投资产品的价格都会回到产品本身的价值，如果某个产品价格长期都
回不到本身的价值，那说明价值算错了
但是首先，我得算出个价值才能决定我是否投资
不估算价值就进行投资就好像打牌不看牌一样
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 价格不是由你确定的，价格是由市场决定的
|
