n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 1 这个Ray Lucia显然是个大忽悠。
Heard from The Ray Lucia Show this morning.
1) absolute return note
works this way: say there is a range of -15% to +15%. If S&P never
breaks that range in a full year, you get the absolute return of
S&P at year end. (absolute means: -14% becomes +14%.) If at any
time during the year, S&P breaks the range, you get 0%. FDIC
insured.
没想明白banker是怎么实现稳定套利的。应该是有另一个对赌协议对冲，反正不会赔。
这里的FDIC insured是个噱头。
2) index annuity
If the S&P is negative, you get 0%; if the S&P is 0-7%, you get
S& |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 Ray Lucia is not a big 忽悠。Yes, all talk show hosts 忽悠，but
he is nowhere near "BIG" 忽悠。He is among the 15% financial
planners that actually thinks in your shoes instead of trying
to sell more.
I've proposed an easier home-made annuity before. Say 10 year
term:
a) put 71% of your money into a 3.5% 10-year CD.
(This 71% will become 100% in 10 years.)
b) put the rest 29% into SPY index. (it will become something
in 10 years.)
How do you make 15% if S&P is 5%? |
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 3 For example, buy 100 SPY @ 87, sell 1 SPY 2010Mar91C @ 8.7. Today's price.
Next March, SP500 up 5%. SPY 87 x 1.05 = 91.35, your return is (91-87)*100 +
870 = 1270. Rate 1270/8700 = 14.6%.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Ray Lucia is not a big 忽悠。Yes, all talk show hosts 忽悠，but
: he is nowhere near "BIG" 忽悠。He is among the 15% financial
: planners that actually thinks in your shoes instead of trying
: to sell more.
: I've proposed an easier home-made annuity before. Say 10 year
: term:
: a) put 71% of your money into a 3.5% 10-year CD.
: (This 71% will become 100% in 10 years.)
: b) put the rest 29% into SPY index. (it will become something
: in 10 years.)
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 4 It looks weird to me. Isn't "selling call" supposed to lose money if
SPY rises? @_@
Anyway, I am too new to options to understand the prices. Maybe someone
can take a look?
+
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: For example, buy 100 SPY @ 87, sell 1 SPY 2010Mar91C @ 8.7. Today's price.
: Next March, SP500 up 5%. SPY 87 x 1.05 = 91.35, your return is (91-87)*100 +
: 870 = 1270. Rate 1270/8700 = 14.6%.
|
t*******d
发帖数: 2570 | 5 That is why the upside is capped at 15% in your original article. Notice the
upside is capped, not buffered. Even if SPY rise 45% or 100%, the upside of
the third method is still capped at 15%. You pay for the downside buffer by
losing the upside potential.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: It looks weird to me. Isn't "selling call" supposed to lose money if
: SPY rises? @_@
: Anyway, I am too new to options to understand the prices. Maybe someone
: can take a look?
:
: +
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 6 是啊。哪有无条件缓冲的。羊毛终归要出在羊身上。
the
of
by
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: That is why the upside is capped at 15% in your original article. Notice the
: upside is capped, not buffered. Even if SPY rise 45% or 100%, the upside of
: the third method is still capped at 15%. You pay for the downside buffer by
: losing the upside potential.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 7 I was saying it's weird to me that selling calls on SPY would earn
the extra 10% if SPY rises 5% -- in my memory selling calls would
lose money if SPY rises 5%.
the
of
by
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: That is why the upside is capped at 15% in your original article. Notice the
: upside is capped, not buffered. Even if SPY rise 45% or 100%, the upside of
: the third method is still capped at 15%. You pay for the downside buffer by
: losing the upside potential.
|
h******s
发帖数: 100 | 8 NO. you wont' lose money if it's done correctly
for example, you can sell calls with striking price 20% above current
price. the price to hit that is slim. if it hit, good. you get 20% for that
year
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I was saying it's weird to me that selling calls on SPY would earn
: the extra 10% if SPY rises 5% -- in my memory selling calls would
: lose money if SPY rises 5%.
:
: the
: of
: by
|
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 9 You need basic option knowledge to be a serious investor. Just knowing MF's
is by far unenough.
In my example, please google OTM leap call. You'll know where the profit
comes from.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: I was saying it's weird to me that selling calls on SPY would earn
: the extra 10% if SPY rises 5% -- in my memory selling calls would
: lose money if SPY rises 5%.
:
: the
: of
: by
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 10 So the same example would get -5% return if SPY is -15%? @_@
I was reluctant to learn options because I felt it's too expensive.
It's true that options give you a lot of flexibility, but due to my
cheapstake personality, I would rather go with simplier strategies
(that are cheaper). I mentioned the home-made annuity idea in a
previous example which is likely to be cheaper than a strategy that
involves option.
For the "buffered note" type of return, it is also possible to do that
by buying/sellin
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: You need basic option knowledge to be a serious investor. Just knowing MF's
: is by far unenough.
: In my example, please google OTM leap call. You'll know where the profit
: comes from.
|
|
|
a**e
发帖数: 5794 | 11 假设SPY现在是100，你以一块钱的价格卖了strike 120的一个三个月
call，现在落袋100块。
只要SPY在三个月内不涨到120块，那100是赚到了。涨到121，你恰好
持平。再往上每涨一块，你亏一百。
至于它在120以下跌到哪里，和你无关。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: So the same example would get -5% return if SPY is -15%? @_@
: I was reluctant to learn options because I felt it's too expensive.
: It's true that options give you a lot of flexibility, but due to my
: cheapstake personality, I would rather go with simplier strategies
: (that are cheaper). I mentioned the home-made annuity idea in a
: previous example which is likely to be cheaper than a strategy that
: involves option.
: For the "buffered note" type of return, it is also possible to do that
: by buying/sellin
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 12 你这是裸的，风险太大了。
【在 a**e 的大作中提到】
: 假设SPY现在是100，你以一块钱的价格卖了strike 120的一个三个月
: call，现在落袋100块。
: 只要SPY在三个月内不涨到120块，那100是赚到了。涨到121，你恰好
: 持平。再往上每涨一块，你亏一百。
: 至于它在120以下跌到哪里，和你无关。
|
a**e
发帖数: 5794 | 13 风险和收益是成正比的啊
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: 你这是裸的，风险太大了。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 14 If you really want to do this, do a spread, a 130c will save
your ass in extremely case.
【在 a**e 的大作中提到】
: 假设SPY现在是100，你以一块钱的价格卖了strike 120的一个三个月
: call，现在落袋100块。
: 只要SPY在三个月内不涨到120块，那100是赚到了。涨到121，你恰好
: 持平。再往上每涨一块，你亏一百。
: 至于它在120以下跌到哪里，和你无关。
|
h******s
发帖数: 100 | 15 selling naked call is dangerous
covered call is much safer, although you have to keep the stock during
the period
if you want to hold some stock for a while, sell some OTM call is a good
choice
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: If you really want to do this, do a spread, a 130c will save
: your ass in extremely case.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 16 The more I read this thread, the more I feel newgumin's original
proposal cannot mimic the "buffered note" using only one option
strategy. i.e., different option trades are needed according to
SPY's current YTD in order to mimic the 10% buffer effect.
In that case it's reasonable for a bank to sell such a service
since it's not obvious how to home-make it.
My assumption would be true if newgumin's strategy fails to meet
any of the following criteria:
1) when SPY is 5%, would the return be 15%? (
【在 h******s 的大作中提到】
: selling naked call is dangerous
: covered call is much safer, although you have to keep the stock during
: the period
: if you want to hold some stock for a while, sell some OTM call is a good
: choice
|
s*****n
发帖数: 2174 | 17 Why not?
Say you hold SPY stock while write a covered call of +5% strike price. When
SPY only increase for 5%, the call expires worthless. You can use the premiu
m of the call to pay that 10% buffer.
It is always true as long as the stock does not go abover 5%. Once it go bey
ond that, your return is capped at 5% + premium.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: The more I read this thread, the more I feel newgumin's original
: proposal cannot mimic the "buffered note" using only one option
: strategy. i.e., different option trades are needed according to
: SPY's current YTD in order to mimic the 10% buffer effect.
: In that case it's reasonable for a bank to sell such a service
: since it's not obvious how to home-make it.
: My assumption would be true if newgumin's strategy fails to meet
: any of the following criteria:
: 1) when SPY is 5%, would the return be 15%? (
|
