t****y
发帖数: 576 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Money 讨论区 】
发信人: tracyy (YY), 信区: Money
标 题: 投资还是down payment
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 29 09:33:51 2009, 美东)
本来想把钱留下来买房子的时候多付点down payment.昨天和一个理财顾问咨询的时候
说，这么说不合适，现在morgage也就5%左右，他们给做的保守一点的理财方案也有8%-
10%的投资回报率。如果真是这样，把钱拿去做投资，贷款买房也未尝不是个好办法啊？
大家说说呢？ |
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 2 It depends on your life style.
If you really don't have any use of the extra money (and can't
think of anyway to use it in the future), pay down.
If your life is full of challenges, experiences and adventures,
listen to the adviser, but don't believe his/her 8-10% estimate
(it's not gonna be that high in the long term, however beating
5% seems to be quite likely).
%-
啊？
【在 t****y 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Money 讨论区 】
: 发信人: tracyy (YY), 信区: Money
: 标 题: 投资还是down payment
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 29 09:33:51 2009, 美东)
: 本来想把钱留下来买房子的时候多付点down payment.昨天和一个理财顾问咨询的时候
: 说，这么说不合适，现在morgage也就5%左右，他们给做的保守一点的理财方案也有8%-
: 10%的投资回报率。如果真是这样，把钱拿去做投资，贷款买房也未尝不是个好办法啊？
: 大家说说呢？
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 3 I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities
during this century –envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends
and 8% from price appreciation – are implicitly forecasting a level of
about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about
doubledigit returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it
will faze him. Many helpers are apparently direct descendants of the queen
in Alice in Wonderland, who said: "Why, sometimes I’ve beli |
X****r
发帖数: 3557 | 4 Your mortgage is someone else's bond. Why that someone else would
like to purchase your mortgage if they could just get 8%-10% from
somewhere else? Either these people are very stupid, or they
think that 8%-10% is either unrealistic or more risky than your
5%.
%-
啊？
【在 t****y 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Money 讨论区 】
: 发信人: tracyy (YY), 信区: Money
: 标 题: 投资还是down payment
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 29 09:33:51 2009, 美东)
: 本来想把钱留下来买房子的时候多付点down payment.昨天和一个理财顾问咨询的时候
: 说，这么说不合适，现在morgage也就5%左右，他们给做的保守一点的理财方案也有8%-
: 10%的投资回报率。如果真是这样，把钱拿去做投资，贷款买房也未尝不是个好办法啊？
: 大家说说呢？
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 5 Many people who bought mortgage bonds have certain needs to
generate fixed income out of a large asset.
In another word, they don't have sufficient income to live
on and/or they can't live for another 30 years.
Some others bought them using money they would otherwise put in
CD, which has a lower rate now.
【在 X****r 的大作中提到】
: Your mortgage is someone else's bond. Why that someone else would
: like to purchase your mortgage if they could just get 8%-10% from
: somewhere else? Either these people are very stupid, or they
: think that 8%-10% is either unrealistic or more risky than your
: 5%.
:
: %-
: 啊？
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 6
This logic does not hold anymore. The FED is printing money to buy mortgage-
backed security. If I can print money out of thin air, I will buy everything
that I can lay my eyes upon.
【在 X****r 的大作中提到】
: Your mortgage is someone else's bond. Why that someone else would
: like to purchase your mortgage if they could just get 8%-10% from
: somewhere else? Either these people are very stupid, or they
: think that 8%-10% is either unrealistic or more risky than your
: 5%.
:
: %-
: 啊？
|
X****r
发帖数: 3557 | 7 As long as FED is not the only one buying those the logic still
holds.
mortgage-
everything
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
:
: This logic does not hold anymore. The FED is printing money to buy mortgage-
: backed security. If I can print money out of thin air, I will buy everything
: that I can lay my eyes upon.
|
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 8 I think it's true that the 8%-10% is more risky than the 5% mortgage return.
But it only means OP should pay down mortgage if he doesn't want to take
any risk.
【在 X****r 的大作中提到】
: Your mortgage is someone else's bond. Why that someone else would
: like to purchase your mortgage if they could just get 8%-10% from
: somewhere else? Either these people are very stupid, or they
: think that 8%-10% is either unrealistic or more risky than your
: 5%.
:
: %-
: 啊？
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 9 The point is the buyer's motivation (FED included) could be very different
from the seller.
In a trade, normally no one is really stupid because everyone's utility of
the same amount of money (or goods) is not the same.
【在 X****r 的大作中提到】
: As long as FED is not the only one buying those the logic still
: holds.
:
: mortgage-
: everything
|
X****r
发帖数: 3557 | 10 How many risk the OP is willing to take can be only answered by
the OP himself, and highly depends on his individual situation.
(BTW, paying mortage is not risk-free either. It reduces your
option to walk away in the case of dramastic decline of the value
of said real estate)
I just wanted to point out that his advisor might not have given
him the entire picture when quoting the 8%-10% number
(and of course, finacial advisors usually have the incentive not
to do so)
return.
take
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: I think it's true that the 8%-10% is more risky than the 5% mortgage return.
: But it only means OP should pay down mortgage if he doesn't want to take
: any risk.
|
|
|
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 11 pay mortgage downpayment has risk too. u lose the oppotunity to walk away
with less loss if there are any loss.
return.
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: I think it's true that the 8%-10% is more risky than the 5% mortgage return.
: But it only means OP should pay down mortgage if he doesn't want to take
: any risk.
|
X****r
发帖数: 3557 | 12 That's definitely true. On the other hand, if there is such a
sure way to earn 10% in average for the next 30 years, some
one would have already set up a fund and sell the 6% bond to
gather capital to do so.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: Many people who bought mortgage bonds have certain needs to
: generate fixed income out of a large asset.
: In another word, they don't have sufficient income to live
: on and/or they can't live for another 30 years.
: Some others bought them using money they would otherwise put in
: CD, which has a lower rate now.
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 13 The OP's situation equals to "is it worth it to invest for
30 years instead of gaining 5% sure money for 30 years?"
My opinion is that on a 30-year basis, the chance a stock
index can beat 5% APY is not low (dividend included), or,
the risk is not that high.
【在 X****r 的大作中提到】
: That's definitely true. On the other hand, if there is such a
: sure way to earn 10% in average for the next 30 years, some
: one would have already set up a fund and sell the 6% bond to
: gather capital to do so.
|
X****r
发帖数: 3557 | 14 I totally agree with your opinion. The OP didn't mention 30
years though, and the investment horizton is one of the
deciding factors, too.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: The OP's situation equals to "is it worth it to invest for
: 30 years instead of gaining 5% sure money for 30 years?"
: My opinion is that on a 30-year basis, the chance a stock
: index can beat 5% APY is not low (dividend included), or,
: the risk is not that high.
|
c*v
发帖数: 93 | 15 “保守一点的理财方案也有8%-10%的投资回报率” 这个听着不靠谱啊。楼主把方案细
节贴出来看看，这里高手不少，大家看看就知道是不是保守了。 |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 16 “他们给做的保守一点的理财方案也有8%-10%的投资回报率。”那是非常胡扯的。
我可以很负责任的告诉你，如果往回看十年，他们所谓 8%-10% 的“保守方案”
平均年回报不会超过 4%。
所谓的理财顾问，实际上大都是 sales。他们的主要任务是向你推销高费用的投资
产品，而不是告诉你真正的理财方法。
虽然这么说，是应该投资还是应该 down pay 仍然是一个值得讨论的问题。
%-
啊？
【在 t****y 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Money 讨论区 】
: 发信人: tracyy (YY), 信区: Money
: 标 题: 投资还是down payment
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 29 09:33:51 2009, 美东)
: 本来想把钱留下来买房子的时候多付点down payment.昨天和一个理财顾问咨询的时候
: 说，这么说不合适，现在morgage也就5%左右，他们给做的保守一点的理财方案也有8%-
: 10%的投资回报率。如果真是这样，把钱拿去做投资，贷款买房也未尝不是个好办法啊？
: 大家说说呢？
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 17
I think there is not much to debate here. This is just an asset allocation
problem. Fixed income v.s. risky
investment. Classical asset allocation based on risk tolerance, age, taking
into account of human capital, etc.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: “他们给做的保守一点的理财方案也有8%-10%的投资回报率。”那是非常胡扯的。
: 我可以很负责任的告诉你，如果往回看十年，他们所谓 8%-10% 的“保守方案”
: 平均年回报不会超过 4%。
: 所谓的理财顾问，实际上大都是 sales。他们的主要任务是向你推销高费用的投资
: 产品，而不是告诉你真正的理财方法。
: 虽然这么说，是应该投资还是应该 down pay 仍然是一个值得讨论的问题。
:
: %-
: 啊？
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 18 那个MBS还不到5%。估计3%就不错了。
要不然银行家能脑满肠肥？
【在 X****r 的大作中提到】
: Your mortgage is someone else's bond. Why that someone else would
: like to purchase your mortgage if they could just get 8%-10% from
: somewhere else? Either these people are very stupid, or they
: think that 8%-10% is either unrealistic or more risky than your
: 5%.
:
: %-
: 啊？
|
u******b
发帖数: 483 | 19 理财顾问肯定不建议你downpay太多。大家都把钱放到房子里了，谁还买他的理财产品
呢？
投资，记住一点－回报永远是和风险成正比的。你收益８％－１０％是可能的，但他一
定不会担保你的。否则大家都贷款去投资了。你收益高出利息的部分，就是对未来风险
的溢价。 |
u******b
发帖数: 483 | 20 从这点也反映出为什么中国政府这么没出息，总是买美国国债。就是看中了美国国债的
风险最小。不求有功，但求无过。谁要是买了高风险的亏了，就成了卖国贼了。
【在 u******b 的大作中提到】
: 理财顾问肯定不建议你downpay太多。大家都把钱放到房子里了，谁还买他的理财产品
: 呢？
: 投资，记住一点－回报永远是和风险成正比的。你收益８％－１０％是可能的，但他一
: 定不会担保你的。否则大家都贷款去投资了。你收益高出利息的部分，就是对未来风险
: 的溢价。
|
s**p
发帖数: 518 | 21 偶劝搂主多付点downpay吧。不是巴西你，能问这个问题就说明楼主的钱坚决不能交给
“理财专家”。钱永远是自己保管好。不会投资就减少债务。
%-
啊？
【在 t****y 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Money 讨论区 】
: 发信人: tracyy (YY), 信区: Money
: 标 题: 投资还是down payment
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 29 09:33:51 2009, 美东)
: 本来想把钱留下来买房子的时候多付点down payment.昨天和一个理财顾问咨询的时候
: 说，这么说不合适，现在morgage也就5%左右，他们给做的保守一点的理财方案也有8%-
: 10%的投资回报率。如果真是这样，把钱拿去做投资，贷款买房也未尝不是个好办法啊？
: 大家说说呢？
|
s*******d
发帖数: 126 | 22 I have heard of this quote many times and I never undersand what Warren
means by this. The math does work out this way and 2100 is 90 years away.
And 90 years ago, the Dow Jones industrial average was around 40!
as
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities
: during this century –envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends
: and 8% from price appreciation – are implicitly forecasting a level of
: about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about
: doubledigit returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it
: will faze him. Many helpers are apparently direct descendants of the queen
: in Alice in Wonderland, who said: "Why, sometimes I’ve beli
|
