f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 1 usually they are negatively coorelated,
but this year and last year, they are pasitively coorelated.
any insight? |
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 2 我的理解是原来投资者是两边换手，
现在是两边同时撤出或同时进入
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: usually they are negatively coorelated,
: but this year and last year, they are pasitively coorelated.
: any insight?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 3 why?
for example, last year, when interest rate ->0, the bonds should be up. but
they were not.
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 我的理解是原来投资者是两边换手，
: 现在是两边同时撤出或同时进入
|
l******n
发帖数: 641 | 4 $usd down
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: usually they are negatively coorelated,
: but this year and last year, they are pasitively coorelated.
: any insight?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 5 can explain for this year.
then last year, both down, and why?
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: $usd down
|
K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 6 USD up?
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: can explain for this year.
: then last year, both down, and why?
|
o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 7 when inflation is moderate, bonds and stocks are generally negatively
correlated. but if inflation is high or fears of high inflation rise, bonds
and stocks start to act in the same direction.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: usually they are negatively coorelated,
: but this year and last year, they are pasitively coorelated.
: any insight?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 8 inflation up -> rate up -> bonds down?
bonds
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: when inflation is moderate, bonds and stocks are generally negatively
: correlated. but if inflation is high or fears of high inflation rise, bonds
: and stocks start to act in the same direction.
|
o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 9 inflation up-> bonds down
stocks down too.
inflation or fear of inflation fading->bonds & stock both up.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: inflation up -> rate up -> bonds down?
:
: bonds
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 10 what "bond" do you refer to?
if you refer to the credit markets -- commercial papers/corporate bonds/MBS/
high-yield bonds, the return is determined by both risk-free interest rate (
i.e. Treasury etc) and credit spread (i.e, chance of default /bankrupcy).
During the crisis last year, credit spread widened dramatically -- some part
of the credit market literally forzen in the mid of the panic.
While, the tide turned and credit spread narrows this year (so far). |
|
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 11
sorry, I think stock up?
why bonds up in this case? thanks
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: inflation up-> bonds down
: stocks down too.
: inflation or fear of inflation fading->bonds & stock both up.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 12 let us talk about gov bonds, so that we don't need to bring credit spread in.
last year, the rate was down, gov bonds should be up. but bonds were actually
down (right?).
MBS/
(
part
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】
: what "bond" do you refer to?
: if you refer to the credit markets -- commercial papers/corporate bonds/MBS/
: high-yield bonds, the return is determined by both risk-free interest rate (
: i.e. Treasury etc) and credit spread (i.e, chance of default /bankrupcy).
: During the crisis last year, credit spread widened dramatically -- some part
: of the credit market literally forzen in the mid of the panic.
: While, the tide turned and credit spread narrows this year (so far).
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | |
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 14 thanks. so i am wrong, and the 2008 returns for all the gov bonds are
positive?
【在 l**********t 的大作中提到】
: "last year, the rate was down, gov bonds should be up. but bonds were
: actually down (right?)."
: 10YR yield
: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TNX#symbol=^TNX;range=2y
: interm government EFT price
: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IEI#chart5:symbol=iei;range=20071226,20091022;indicator=sma(250)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
: long-term government ETF price
: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IEF#symbol=IEF;range=2y
: and vs. SP500 YTD -- seems negatively correlated.
: http:
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 15 Equities, gold and government bonds all produced double-digit returns over
the past three months. That has occurred only twice before in the past 50
years. On each occasion when it broke down, the casualties were equities and
the gold price as the economy slipped into a double-dip recession.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: usually they are negatively coorelated,
: but this year and last year, they are pasitively coorelated.
: any insight?
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 16
and
how about gov bonds then?
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Equities, gold and government bonds all produced double-digit returns over
: the past three months. That has occurred only twice before in the past 50
: years. On each occasion when it broke down, the casualties were equities and
: the gold price as the economy slipped into a double-dip recession.
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 17 2 points do not show trend. The future is always unpredictable. But one
thing is certain: the three asset classes have very different exposures to
risk (equities are risky, bonds and gold are safe havens) and to inflation (
gold is a good inflation hedge, bonds are not, and equities lie somewhere in
between). So when they do rise at the same time, it's because one or the
other of them is mistaken. Fair-price is always boring so it should be
exciting to see some mis-price in the current market. T
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
:
: and
: how about gov bonds then?
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 18 That's correct. But it doesn't explain why gold is going in the same
direction. High inflation/inflation expectation will push bond/stock price
down while the gold price rises.
Last time when that happened, the economy is entering double-dip recession
in late 1982. The gold traders thought the inflation will come back up by
the FED's easing to fight the recession. The equity and bond holders
believed that Volker will stand firm. The equity and bond market traders
both enjoyed 20 years of rally a
【在 o*****c 的大作中提到】
: when inflation is moderate, bonds and stocks are generally negatively
: correlated. but if inflation is high or fears of high inflation rise, bonds
: and stocks start to act in the same direction.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 19 On each occasion when it broke down, the casualties were equities and
the gold price as the economy slipped into a double-dip recession. |
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 20
Yes. And it could happen again. After all, 20 years into their crisis, and
with gross government debt heading for 200% of GDP, Japanese bonds yield
just 1.3%. So ten-year treasury bond yields of 3.5% may be reasonable after
all.
The question is still, would the future be inflationary or deflationary?
Government bonds work great in a deflationary world.
【在 f****t 的大作中提到】
: On each occasion when it broke down, the casualties were equities and
: the gold price as the economy slipped into a double-dip recession.
|
l******n
发帖数: 641 | 21 in the deflation case, china has a good opportunity to exit the us bond mark
et, which i don't think that's the case.
after
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
:
: Yes. And it could happen again. After all, 20 years into their crisis, and
: with gross government debt heading for 200% of GDP, Japanese bonds yield
: just 1.3%. So ten-year treasury bond yields of 3.5% may be reasonable after
: all.
: The question is still, would the future be inflationary or deflationary?
: Government bonds work great in a deflationary world.
|
f****t
发帖数: 1063 | 22 so in history, both cases are deflationary?
after
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
:
: Yes. And it could happen again. After all, 20 years into their crisis, and
: with gross government debt heading for 200% of GDP, Japanese bonds yield
: just 1.3%. So ten-year treasury bond yields of 3.5% may be reasonable after
: all.
: The question is still, would the future be inflationary or deflationary?
: Government bonds work great in a deflationary world.
|
