S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 1 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732458150457823564
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Bullish 46.4% up 7.7
Neutral 26.6% up 1.5
Bearish 26.9% down 9.3
Note sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 2 similar observation by business insider
http://www.businessinsider.com/historic-equity-fund-inflows-thi
even on this board, more and more posts ask about investment ideas due to
their losing patience with the low interest. I guess everybody would be
happy with the tiny interest when the stock market was at the bottom, lol
this tells you where we are.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732458150457823564
: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
: Bullish 46.4% up 7.7
: Neutral 26.6% up 1.5
: Bearish 26.9% down 9.3
: Note sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators.
|
c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 3 Ya, agree with LZ and LS. Normally, I may think this is a contrarian
indicator hinting the last leg of a bull market; but like LS said, the extra
-low interest rate is driving people to other asset classes including stocks.
Regarding money flow and sentiment indicators, here is a good and very
recent article
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-follow-stock-market-mon |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 4 I agree with your thought of it being the last leg of a bull market
this cyclical bull market since March 2009 has been grinding higher
after a strong initial surge.
most bull markets in the past did not end in the grinding phase
instead, they ended with a parabolic spike
a good example is Nasdaq in 2000
so we could be entering such a euphoria stage of this cyclical bull market
big boys will need such a spike to exit their positions
extra
stocks.
【在 c*****e 的大作中提到】
: Ya, agree with LZ and LS. Normally, I may think this is a contrarian
: indicator hinting the last leg of a bull market; but like LS said, the extra
: -low interest rate is driving people to other asset classes including stocks.
: Regarding money flow and sentiment indicators, here is a good and very
: recent article
: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-follow-stock-market-mon
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s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 5 那请问big boys撤出的资金会去哪里呢？ 好像也没什么地方可去。
如果没地方可去， 会不会就不撤出了？
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I agree with your thought of it being the last leg of a bull market
: this cyclical bull market since March 2009 has been grinding higher
: after a strong initial surge.
: most bull markets in the past did not end in the grinding phase
: instead, they ended with a parabolic spike
: a good example is Nasdaq in 2000
: so we could be entering such a euphoria stage of this cyclical bull market
: big boys will need such a spike to exit their positions
:
: extra
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 6 all bubble bursts
I don't know exactly where the money will flow to after exiting from
a bubble, but this is not what we need to worry about. Money will
find its place to go anyway.
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: 那请问big boys撤出的资金会去哪里呢？ 好像也没什么地方可去。
: 如果没地方可去， 会不会就不撤出了？
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 7 I don't have a comment on bull or bear.
But I am surprised to see people talking about bubble at this stage.
What bubble?
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: all bubble bursts
: I don't know exactly where the money will flow to after exiting from
: a bubble, but this is not what we need to worry about. Money will
: find its place to go anyway.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 8 it's a general comment
most of the time, there are bubbles existing in some assetts
for stocks, if SP500 rushes to 1700 in a short period of time, I think it
would
qualify as a bubble
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I don't have a comment on bull or bear.
: But I am surprised to see people talking about bubble at this stage.
: What bubble?
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c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 9 At least a long bond bubble, no? :)
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I don't have a comment on bull or bear.
: But I am surprised to see people talking about bubble at this stage.
: What bubble?
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 10 We are in an extremely slow recovery, not even in a prosperous stage yet.
Generally, I doubt there is any bubble until we are there.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it's a general comment
: most of the time, there are bubbles existing in some assetts
: for stocks, if SP500 rushes to 1700 in a short period of time, I think it
: would
: qualify as a bubble
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|
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 11 I did not say we are in a bubble on the stock market
in fact, I specifically said in the earlier post that we might be entering
the final phase of this cyclical bull market
we are not there yet
in a longer time frame, I am in the camp that we are still in a secular
bear market since 2000. If you are looking for a bubble in the end of of
a secular bull market, yes, there is a long long long way to go. We havent
even started a secular bull market yet IMO.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: We are in an extremely slow recovery, not even in a prosperous stage yet.
: Generally, I doubt there is any bubble until we are there.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 12 I agree with you that we are still in a secular bear market. That's why I
don't see bubble. But I guess if S&P breaks out to a new high, say above
1600, we might be seeing the start of a new secular bull. In the past a few
months, funds are rotating out of growth names and into cyclicals. That's a
sign of market discounting expansion, not just recovery. Well, things can
change in an unexpected way. We'll see.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I did not say we are in a bubble on the stock market
: in fact, I specifically said in the earlier post that we might be entering
: the final phase of this cyclical bull market
: we are not there yet
: in a longer time frame, I am in the camp that we are still in a secular
: bear market since 2000. If you are looking for a bubble in the end of of
: a secular bull market, yes, there is a long long long way to go. We havent
: even started a secular bull market yet IMO.
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 13 CAPE already north of 22.
few
a
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I agree with you that we are still in a secular bear market. That's why I
: don't see bubble. But I guess if S&P breaks out to a new high, say above
: 1600, we might be seeing the start of a new secular bull. In the past a few
: months, funds are rotating out of growth names and into cyclicals. That's a
: sign of market discounting expansion, not just recovery. Well, things can
: change in an unexpected way. We'll see.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 14 I don't care much about PE. A high PE only means the market is pricing in a
growth/expansion. Whether the market is correct or not, that only time will
tell.
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: CAPE already north of 22.
:
: few
: a
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 15 a secular bull market starts when nobody wants stocks, not when the index
breaks to new highs
I did not say we have bubble in the stock market right now. I was saying
the money sitting on the sideline the last few years rushing into stocks
might start building a bubble.
We will see how the stock market works during the summer.
few
a
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I agree with you that we are still in a secular bear market. That's why I
: don't see bubble. But I guess if S&P breaks out to a new high, say above
: 1600, we might be seeing the start of a new secular bull. In the past a few
: months, funds are rotating out of growth names and into cyclicals. That's a
: sign of market discounting expansion, not just recovery. Well, things can
: change in an unexpected way. We'll see.
|
s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 16 2009年三月为什么不是secular bull market的开始呢？ 那时候很多人都
不玩股市了。
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: a secular bull market starts when nobody wants stocks, not when the index
: breaks to new highs
: I did not say we have bubble in the stock market right now. I was saying
: the money sitting on the sideline the last few years rushing into stocks
: might start building a bubble.
: We will see how the stock market works during the summer.
:
: few
: a
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 17 it's indeed possible we started a secular bull market since then
we got out of the mess by kicking the can down the road further without
solving the real problems. the massive QE money can eventually cause
more troulbes by squeezing the profit margin with higher inflation, which
might bring us a even worse recession.
so, I am still staying with the thesis of a secular bear market
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: 2009年三月为什么不是secular bull market的开始呢？ 那时候很多人都
: 不玩股市了。
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 18 Of course in retrospect, you can pinpoint when the secular bull actually
kicked off and you can make sense of all the early signs. My point was that
if the market is not strong enough to break into new high, it's not safe to
say it's a secular bull yet. In fact, in the past years, there were times
that nobody wanted stocks, and we might be still in this 10+ years secular
bear. I'm not hurry in jumping into conclusions on whether the secular bear
has ended or not. Just let the market proves itself. I'm not in predicting
business. Rather, I'm simply observing and interpreting.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: a secular bull market starts when nobody wants stocks, not when the index
: breaks to new highs
: I did not say we have bubble in the stock market right now. I was saying
: the money sitting on the sideline the last few years rushing into stocks
: might start building a bubble.
: We will see how the stock market works during the summer.
:
: few
: a
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 19 new high could also be sign of top.
that
to
bear
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Of course in retrospect, you can pinpoint when the secular bull actually
: kicked off and you can make sense of all the early signs. My point was that
: if the market is not strong enough to break into new high, it's not safe to
: say it's a secular bull yet. In fact, in the past years, there were times
: that nobody wanted stocks, and we might be still in this 10+ years secular
: bear. I'm not hurry in jumping into conclusions on whether the secular bear
: has ended or not. Just let the market proves itself. I'm not in predicting
: business. Rather, I'm simply observing and interpreting.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 20 Yes.
In the investment world, there is no sure thing.
【在 n******n 的大作中提到】
: new high could also be sign of top.
:
: that
: to
: bear
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s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 21 理解。
我的担心也在这个巨大的债务， 和未来qe withdraw对系统的打击。
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it's indeed possible we started a secular bull market since then
: we got out of the mess by kicking the can down the road further without
: solving the real problems. the massive QE money can eventually cause
: more troulbes by squeezing the profit margin with higher inflation, which
: might bring us a even worse recession.
: so, I am still staying with the thesis of a secular bear market
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 22 Unfortunately we don't have the luxury to just let the market proves
itself while we only sit on the sideline observing and interpreting.
We are in the market, all the time. We are forced to make a dicesion no
matter what. We don't need to marry to a position and are better to
keep an open mind. Preparing for all possible scenarios while playing
the best odds. That's all.
that
to
bear
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Of course in retrospect, you can pinpoint when the secular bull actually
: kicked off and you can make sense of all the early signs. My point was that
: if the market is not strong enough to break into new high, it's not safe to
: say it's a secular bull yet. In fact, in the past years, there were times
: that nobody wanted stocks, and we might be still in this 10+ years secular
: bear. I'm not hurry in jumping into conclusions on whether the secular bear
: has ended or not. Just let the market proves itself. I'm not in predicting
: business. Rather, I'm simply observing and interpreting.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 23 I'm observing and interpreting, but not from the sideline. I'm holding a few
quality stocks as well as funds. If the market continues to show strength,
I wade in even deeper; If it turns tail, I'm out. Interpreting doesn't mean
I have to be on the sideline.
There is in fact no such thing as sideline in the sense that holding on to
cash is also a position and it has risk too. I agree with you that it's
better to keep an open mind and don't be stubborn at a pre-set scenario we
think it's going to happen. A secular bull? A bubble? Or a trap that drags
us to deeper recession? Nobody knows. That's why I said "interpreting"
rather than "predicting".
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: Unfortunately we don't have the luxury to just let the market proves
: itself while we only sit on the sideline observing and interpreting.
: We are in the market, all the time. We are forced to make a dicesion no
: matter what. We don't need to marry to a position and are better to
: keep an open mind. Preparing for all possible scenarios while playing
: the best odds. That's all.
:
: that
: to
: bear
|
c*****e
发帖数: 1106 | 24 With fiscal cliff band-aided, and GOP moving debt limit 3 months down the
road, and Bernanke standing firm on QE, it seems deficit spending will go on
as usual for a while.
Everyone is happy, where is the problem? Stocks making multi-yar high, and
the volatility index has tumbled to pre-crash level.
太平盛世， Yeah! |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 25 http://rt.com/business/news/us-major-deposit-withdrawal-740/
it seems pretty clear where the money flowing into stocks was from
here came the dumb money, lol
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732458150457823564
: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
: Bullish 46.4% up 7.7
: Neutral 26.6% up 1.5
: Bearish 26.9% down 9.3
: Note sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators.
|
