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发帖数: 376 | 1 The Market's Cooling
The boom came on so fast and so strong this year that it was scary. Buyers
this spring were like a bear that had hibernated for six years and finally
woke up famished, eating everything in sight. Prices shot up at
unsustainable rates.
That has begun to change. In the last 60 days, mortgage rates jumped from 3.
4% to 4.5%. By the end of June, prices had risen 18.7% over last year, which
really can't happen two years in a row. Rising prices and rising rates
combined to increase the mortgage payment for a home by 33%.
And this has now given buyers a moment of pause. The market may keep rising
but it will be at a more modest pace than we saw this spring; in some places
prices will go up and down this winter.
The number of homes for sale has been increasing since April, which is also
when bidding wars began to ease. Over the last seven days, the number of
Redfin customers signing offers has declined by 25% from the average weekly
rate in June. At the same time, 9% more people contacted us for the first
time, so the changing market is still drawing buyers into the market, not
just scaring them away.
Tales of Joy and Woe
How fast has the market shifted in buyers favor? Well here are a few
examples:
In Washington DC, listing agents at other brokerages called last week to say
our agents forgot to include an escalator clause in the offer, promising
more money in a bidding war. We said no, we didn't forget: this is our final
offer.
In LA, Redfin agent John Venti won three straight offers last weekend with
no counter-offers or competition. "That hasn't happened," he said, "since
December 2011."
But not everything has changed. Almost 70% of sales are still a bidding war.
In Boston, when Redfin agent Sandy Rosen lost out on a bidding war for a $
600,000 Sudbury home, we stayed in touch with the listing agent. After
negotiations over repairs stalled, the listing agent called us back and we
snatched the deal away from the initial buyer.
In the Bay Area, where homes are selling for hundreds of thousands above the
asking price, we've been winning deals not with the highest bid, but by
promising the seller we've got enough cash to make up for any shortfall in
the appraisal. Redfin's Jess Williams just beat out 28 other offers using
this tactic on a $700,000 San Francisco listing.
The Return to Normalcy
Are we worried that the market is cooling? No. We were worried back in April
, when we warned against a frothy market:
And there's one change that is about to come: rates will rise. In our survey
of 1,100 home-buyers, 58% cited "low interest rates" as a primary reason
for buying now, but mortgage bankers now expect rates to rise from 3.5% to 4
.5% over the next year. When that happens, the frothiest markets could be in
for a setback.
Buyers are still out in force, with inventory down 19% from last year, rates
still 2 points below historical norms, and prices 26% south of their 2006
peak.
What has happened after six years of depression, and six months of manic
bubbliness, is that we have returned at last to a normal market: you'll pay
more now than you would have at the absolute bottom in late 2012, but there
will be more -- and better -- homes to choose from, and a better chance of
buying one.
That sounds like a good deal to us. What's your take on the market? Just
leave a comment on our blog or on Facebook.
Best, Glenn
Glenn Kelman | CEO, Redfin
Twitter | Blog | l*****a
发帖数: 130 | 2 房价涨了，到底要不要买呢？等一等呢？还是马上抢下来？ | c****o
发帖数: 32446 | |
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