f****0
发帖数: 835 | 1 HORRIBLE toilets. Stagnant puddles buzzing with dengue-spreading mosquitoes.
Collapsing masonry. Lax security. A terrorist attack. India’s preparations
for the 72-nation Commonwealth games, which are scheduled to open in Delhi
on October 3rd, have not won favourable reviews. “Commonfilth”, was one of
the kinder British tabloid headlines. At best—assuming that the organisers
make a last-minute dash to spruce things up—the Delhi games will be
remembered as a shambles. The contrast with China’s practically flawless
hosting of the Olympic games in 2008 could hardly be starker. Many people
will draw the wrong lesson from this.
A big sporting event, some people believe, tells you something important
about the nation that hosts it. Efficient countries build tip-top stadiums
and make the shuttle buses run on time. That India cannot seem to do any of
these things suggests that it will always be a second-rate power.
Or does it? Despite the headlines, India is doing rather well. Its economy
is expected to expand by 8.5% this year. It has a long way to go before it
is as rich as China—the Chinese economy is four times bigger—but its
growth rate could overtake China’s by 2013, if not before (see article).
Some economists think India will grow faster than any other large country
over the next 25 years. Rapid growth in a country of 1.2 billion people is
exciting, to put it mildly.
Related items
•Business in India: A bumpier but freer road
Sep 30th 2010
People power
There are two reasons why India will soon start to outpace China. One is
demography. China’s workforce will shortly start ageing; in a few years’
time, it will start shrinking. That’s because of its one-child policy—an
oppressive measure that no Indian government would get away with. Indira
Gandhi tried something similar in the 1970s, when she called a state of
emergency and introduced a forced-sterilisation programme. There was an
uproar of protest. Democracy was restored and coercive population policies
were abandoned. India is now blessed with a young and growing workforce. Its
dependency ratio—the proportion of children and old people to working-age
adults—is one of the best in the world and will remain so for a generation.
India’s economy will benefit from this “demographic dividend”, which has
powered many of Asia’s economic miracles.
The second reason for optimism is India’s much-derided democracy. The
notion that democracy retards development in poor countries has gained
currency in recent years. Certainly, it has its disadvantages. Elected
governments bow to the demands of selfish factions and interest groups. Even
the most urgent decisions are endlessly debated and delayed.
China does not have this problem. When its technocrats decide to dam a river
, build a road or move a village, the dam goes up, the road goes down and
the village disappears. The displaced villagers may be compensated, but they
are not allowed to stand in the way of progress. China’s leaders make
rational decisions that balance the needs of all citizens over the long term
. This has led to rapid, sustained growth that has lifted hundreds of
millions of people out of poverty. Small wonder that authoritarians
everywhere cite China as their best excuse not to allow democracy just yet.
No doubt a strong central government would have given India a less chaotic
Commonwealth games, but there is more to life than badminton and rhythmic
gymnastics. India’s state may be weak, but its private companies are strong
. Indian capitalism is driven by millions of entrepreneurs all furiously
doing their own thing. Since the early 1990s, when India dismantled the “
licence raj” and opened up to foreign trade, Indian business has boomed.
The country now boasts legions of thriving small businesses and a fair
number of world-class ones whose English-speaking bosses network confidently
with the global elite. They are less dependent on state patronage than
Chinese firms, and often more innovative: they have pioneered the $2,000 car
, the ultra-cheap heart operation and some novel ways to make management
more responsive to customers. Ideas flow easily around India, since it lacks
China’s culture of secrecy and censorship. That, plus China’s rampant
piracy, is why knowledge-based industries such as software love India but
shun the Middle Kingdom.
India’s individualistic brand of capitalism may also be more robust than
China’s state-directed sort. Chinese firms prosper under wise government,
but bad rulers can cause far more damage in China than in India, because
their powers are so much greater. If, God forbid, another Mao were to seize
the reins, there would be no mechanism for getting rid of him.
That is a problem for the future. For now, India’s problems are painfully
visible. The roads are atrocious. Public transport is a disgrace. Many of
the country’s dynamic entrepreneurs waste hours each day stuck in traffic.
Their firms are hobbled by the costs of building their own infrastructure:
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【在 f****0 的大作中提到】
: HORRIBLE toilets. Stagnant puddles buzzing with dengue-spreading mosquitoes.
: Collapsing masonry. Lax security. A terrorist attack. India’s preparations
: for the 72-nation Commonwealth games, which are scheduled to open in Delhi
: on October 3rd, have not won favourable reviews. “Commonfilth”, was one of
: the kinder British tabloid headlines. At best—assuming that the organisers
: make a last-minute dash to spruce things up—the Delhi games will be
: remembered as a shambles. The contrast with China’s practically flawless
: hosting of the Olympic games in 2008 could hardly be starker. Many people
: will draw the wrong lesson from this.
: A big sporting event, some people believe, tells you something important
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