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发帖数: 125 | 1 A crown prince is anointed in a vast kingdom facing vaster stresses. China
is in
a fragile state(在一个面临更大挑战的巨大王国，继承者被选定。中国处于脆弱的状
态。)
“The next emperor”(下一位皇帝)
www.economist.com（经
济学网
站）
“WITH you in charge, I am at ease,” Mao Zedong is supposed to have told
his
successor, Hua Guofeng. It proved a disastrous choice. Mr Hua lasted a
couple of
years before being toppled in 1978.A decade later succession plans once
again
unravelled spectacularly, against a backdrop of pro-democracy unrest. Only
once,
eight years ago, has China’s Communist Party managed a smooth transfer of
power—
to Hu Jintao. Now a new transition is under way. The world should be nervous
about
it for two reasons: the unknown character of China’s next leader; and the
brittle
nature of a regime that is far less monolithic and assured than many
foreigners
assume.
“你办事，我放心”，当年毛泽东对他的继任者华国锋说了这样的话。但现在看来那是
个糟糕
的选择，因为华先生执政两年后，在1978年被推翻。十年后，继任计划再次在民运动荡
的背景
中轰然倒塌。只有在八年前的那次，中国共产党实现了权力的顺利移交——胡锦涛接任
中国。
现在，一场新的交接正在进行。国际社会对此（习近平接任）非常关注，因为两个原因
：他们
还不是非常了解习的风格；这个政权远没有很多外国人想象的那样坚不可摧，其本质其
实非常
脆弱。
The man ordained to take over Mr Hu’s twin roles as party chief in 2012 and
president the following year is hardly a household name. On October 18th
Vice-
President Xi Jinping was given a new job as vice-chairman of China’s
Central
Military Commission, which Mr Hu heads. This is a position for leaders-in-
waiting.
The portly son of one of Communist China’s founders, little known to the
outside
world until a few years ago, Mr Xi is preparing to take the helm of a
country with
the world’s second-biggest economy and its biggest armed forces—and which
is in
the midst of wrenching social change.
这位计划取代胡锦涛在2012年接任党中央总书记、次年接任国家主席两个职位的男人并
不是非
常家喻户晓。10月18日，习近平被委以由胡锦涛担任主席的中央军委的副主席职务，这
是一个
继任主席者的专属职位。这位共和国缔造者之一（习仲勋）的魁梧儿子，直到最近几年
才为世
人所熟悉。习近平正在准备着掌舵这个位居世界第二大经济体却处于社会转型变革痛苦
期的国
家政权及其核心军事力量。
Quite how he has risen so high in a party that, for all its growing
engagement
with the world, remains deeply secretive, is unclear.Mr Xi’s appointment
was
eerily similar to the recent anointing of Kim Jong Un in North Korea: he too
was
made vice-chairman of a military commission after a closed-door party
conclave,
without public explanation. China’s leaders at least offered a sentence on
Mr
Xi’s appointment, albeit at the end of an arid 4,600-character communiqué
after
the fifth party congress.
至于他究竟是如何在党内迅速地上升，以及以后将如何与世界对接，仍然是个谜，并不
清楚。
习先生的委任与不久前朝鲜王储金正恩的接任非常相似：后者也是在一场党的封闭秘密
会议后
被宣称接任国家军委副主席，并没有公开说明什么。不过中国领导层至少还有一句关于
习先生
接任的说明，虽然被放在了仅4600字的五中全会公报结尾。
On the positive side, Mr Xi has held some big posts in the most economically
dynamic and globally integrated parts of the country: the coastal provinces
of
Fujian and Zhejiang as well as, briefly, Shanghai. He is a relatively
cosmopolitan
figure. His wife is a popular singer. But it is impossible to assess how
well
qualified he is to run the country or how assured his succession is. On the
face
of it, one engineer whose father was denounced during the Cultural
Revolution is
handing over to another. But Mr Xi is a relative newcomer to the inner
circle; he
has not served as long as Mr Hu had in 2002. There are plenty in the party
who
resent the rise to power of well-connected “princelings” like Mr Xi. A two
-year
transition will be a test.（党内有很多势力对于习近平这样一个出身高官家庭的年
轻“王
储”被精心安排到权力中心表示不满，两年的交接期会是一场考验。）
All this one day will be yours（这一摊子将全都交给你）
All the same, it is the immensity of the task, not the obscurity of the man,
that
should make the world nervous. For all their outward expressions of unity,
there
are signs of disagreement among Chinese leaders over what the country’s
priorities should be—both on the economy and on political reform.
尽管如此，吸引国际社会关注的并不是他的低调，而是他所面临的庞大任务。虽然表面
上看去
仍然团结一致，但我们已经可以看到分歧的迹象，中国领导层内部关于国家工作重点—
—经济
发展和政治改革的看法并不一致。
The economy is sprinting along by Western standards, but China faces a hard
adjustment to wean itself off excessive investment and exports in favour of
more
reliance on consumption.The communiqué unveiled guidelines for a new five-
year
economic plan.This calls for a more sustainable pace of growth, with wage-
earners
getting a bigger share of the national income. This would be good for China
and
the world, helping to narrow the trade surplus that annoys America so much.
But the
change will not be painless. Exporters fear business will suffer if wages
soar or
the yuan rises fast. Powerful state-owned enterprises, used to cheap credit,
land
and energy, will resist threats to these privileges.
经济发展正沿着西方的标准模式前进，但是中国面临着由依靠投资、出口转向更多地依
靠内需
消费的艰难调整。会议公包披露了新的五年经济发展计划指导意见。要求一个更加可持
续的增
长，使劳动者更多地分享国民收入。这对中国和世界都是有利的，可以帮助压缩让美国
人很恼
火的外贸盈余。但是转型期肯定会有痛苦。出口企业担心工资猛增和人民币升值会伤害
到他们
的业务。强大的国有企业，已经习惯了便宜的信贷、土地和能源，却可以抵制威胁。
As for political reform, Chinese leaders have talked about democracy for the
past
30 years, but done little. Rapid growth and the spread of the internet and
mobile
phones have enabled Chinese citizens to communicate, vent their grievances
and
pursue their dreams more freely than before, so long as they do not attack
the
party. But some are now demanding more say in how the country is run. In the
past
few weeks China’s more liberal newspapers have enthused about calls by the
prime
minister, Wen Jiabao, for “political reform”. Conservative newspapers have
censored them.
至于政治改革，中国领导人在过去的三十年里一直在谈民主，但几乎没有什么行动。快
速的增
长和网络、手机的普及使中国人联系大为便捷，他们可以更加自由地表达和追逐自己的
梦想。
当然，前提是不可以攻击党。但是一些人要求关于国家运行的更多发言权。在过去的几
周里，
中国比较自由的报纸已经在热心地关注着温家宝总理的“政改”呼唤，保守的报社则选
择了回
避。
There is next to no chance of the cautious Mr Hu bringing in big reforms
before he
steps down. This week’s communiqué hailed the “political advantages of
China’s
socialist system” and mentioned political reform only briefly, saying—as
Chinese
leaders so often do—that it will require “vigorous yet steady” effort.
Even Mr
Wen, who will step down at the same time as Mr Hu, has wanted to move at
glacial
speed.
但是，在谨慎的胡先生卸任前，几乎没有大规模改革的可能性。就在本周的五中全会上
，还在
高呼“中国特色社会主义的政治优势”，仅是很简短地提及了“政治改革”——恰如中
国领导
人一贯做法地说“这需要‘持久的’努力”。即便是要和胡锦涛同时卸任的温家宝，也
只是主
张缓慢的移行。
Expect paranoia and you may be pleasantly surprised（期待激进者的话你会很惊
喜）
Might Mr Xi speed things up? There is no shortage of conservatives arguing
for
caution, but there is also a pragmatic argument for change: China’s
economic
gains could be jeopardised by a failure to loosen the party’s hold.
Explosions of
public discontent, fuelled by resentment of government callousness towards
ordinary citizens, are becoming increasingly common in villages, towns and
cities
across the country. The (admittedly patchy) official data show a more than
tenfold
increase in the annual number of large protests and disturbances since 1993,
with
more than 90,000 cases reported in each of the past four years. In the past
China’s leaders have relied on growth to secure social stability. If and
when a
more serious slowdown strikes, popular grumbles could increase.
习近平可能会加快改革步伐吗？虽然从来不缺少保守派呼唤谨慎，但也有务实地主张改
革的：
如果不能成功地放松党的控制（禁锢），中国的经济增长将会受到严重危害。政府对民
生问题
的麻木，激起社会不满情绪爆发的情况在全国的乡村、城镇和城市越来越普遍。所谓（
公认地
经“和谐”）的官方数据显示，自1993年以来每年的较大规模抗议和骚乱事件增长了十
倍以
上，过去四年里，每年上报的都超过90000次。过去几年里，中国领导层依靠经济增长
来保障
稳定，如果什么时候一场更加严重的（经济）减速袭来，社会的不满肯定激增。
The right path for Mr Xi should be clear: relax the party’s grip on dissent
, lift
its shroud of secrecy and make vital economic reforms. But the rest of the
world
would be unwise to assume that reason will prevail. In times of uncertainty,
the
regime is wont to appeal to nationalist sentiment. Large anti-Japanese
protests
erupted during the latest party meeting. America and the West have also been
subjected to tongue-lashings. The party meeting called on officials to
strengthen
“the country’s comprehensive national power”.
留给习近平的正确路线其实很清楚：放松党对持异见者的压制，提高管理工作的透明度
，推行
迫在眉睫的经济改革。但是，那些期待理智会胜出的国际社会未必是正确的，在这个不
确定的
时代里，政治制度习惯于迎合民族主义情绪。大规模的抗日游行在此次五中全会期间爆
发。美
国以及西方社会也曾服从于强烈的民众意见，本次五中全会也号召领导人加强“国家的
综合力
量”。
Too many Westerners, including those urging trade sanctions over the yuan,
assume
that they are dealing with a self-confident, rational power that has come of
age.
Think instead of a paranoid, introspective imperial court, already
struggling to
keep up with its subjects and now embarking on a slightly awkward succession
—and
you may be less disappointed.
很多西方人，包括那些强烈要求对人民币汇率贸易审查的，都认为他们在面对一个自信
、成熟
的理智力量。认为一个善于反省而不是偏执的国家政权，已经在努力地跟上他的主题，
并且正
在着手一场细长、艰难的转变——你可能不会失望的。
由于水平和时间有限，没有全文翻译。且疏漏难免，敬请谅解。
仅供参考，欢迎交流批评！ | p******u
发帖数: 14642 | |
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