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发帖数: 538 | 1 华尔街日报最新文章。德国哥庭根大学两位经济学家发现，由于墨客儿07年打破惯例会
见“打癞”喇嘛，导致德国对中国出口比应该有的水平缩减了12.5%.
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2010/11/03/a-%e2%80%9cdalai-lama-effect%e2%80%9d-on-exports-to-china/?mod=rss_WSJBlog&mod=chinablog
A “Dalai Lama Effect” on Exports to China
WSJ, 11/03
In 2007, Angela Merkel became the first chancellor of Germany to meet with
the Dalai Lama. Her decision broke with many years of avoiding official
contact with the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, and was sharply criticized
by China.
Bloomberg
President Barack Obama’s February meeting with the Dalai Lama hasn’t yet
hurt U.S. exports to China, which were up 31.5% annually in August.The event
was also met with great misgivings domestically. At the time, German
businesspeople worried that the meeting with a figure branded a separatist
by the Chinese government would lead to the loss of lucrative contracts in
China. The fear of such economic retaliation has long led many government
leaders to downplay contacts with the Dalai Lama.
But just how big a threat is China’s displeasure? Businesses tend not to
publicize, and newspapers not to report, deals that don’t happen. So it’s
not always clear whether the threatened retaliation actually comes through.
Two economists at the Georg August University of Goettingen in Germany,
Andreas Fuchs and Nils-Hendrik Klann, have crunched international data on
trade to find an answer.
In their paper, the researchers say they find solid statistical evidence of
such retaliation. Their numbers show a country’s exports to China are
smaller than they otherwise would be for about two years after that country
’s leaders meet with the Dalai Lama. “We find that Dalai Lama meetings
decrease exports to China by 12.5% on average,” they write. (The Dalai Lama
’s busy travel schedule is available here.)
The effect seems to be confined to exports of machinery and transport
equipment – the kind of high-value products that are often the subject of
negotiations between national trade delegations. A typical example is
airplanes: European plane maker Airbus is reportedly angling for a big deal
linked to President Hu Jintao’s visit to France this week. French president
Nicolas Sarkozy had riled China with his own meeting with the Dalai Lama in
2008, which led the Chinese trade delegations to Europe the next year to
bypass France.
Interestingly, the researchers only find statistical evidence of such
retaliation during Hu’s tenure in office, a period many observers feel has
been marked by a more aggressive Chinese posture in international affairs.
Their data only goes up to 2008, and since then China’s economic importance
to the rest of the world has only increased, thanks to its continued strong
growth amid a weak global recovery.
“We find strong evidence that bilateral political relations matter for
trade with China,” Fuchs and Klann conclude. “Chinese trade relations are
not free of political biases and the country seems to exploit trade ties as
a foreign policy tool.”
It’s not hard to find evidence for such a strategy in the public comments
of Chinese officials. In February, a Communist Party official warned http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7011834.ece of unspecified consequences should U.S. President Barack Obama go ahead with his planned meeting with the Dalai Lama.
“If the U.S. leader chooses to meet the Dalai Lama, that would damage trust
and co-operation between our two countries; how would that help the United
States surmount the current economic crisis?” the official, Zhu Weiqun,
said at a press conference. “We will take corresponding measures to make
the relevant countries realize their mistakes.”
In the event, Obama went ahead with the meeting. So far in this case, the ‘
Dalai Lama effect’ is not yet obvious: U.S. exports to China were up 31.5%
from a year earlier in August.
–Andrew Batson | l******e
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【在 i******n 的大作中提到】
: 华尔街日报最新文章。德国哥庭根大学两位经济学家发现，由于墨客儿07年打破惯例会
: 见“打癞”喇嘛，导致德国对中国出口比应该有的水平缩减了12.5%.
: http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2010/11/03/a-%e2%80%9cdalai-lama-effect%e2%80%9d-on-exports-to-china/?mod=rss_WSJBlog&mod=chinablog
: A “Dalai Lama Effect” on Exports to China
: WSJ, 11/03
: In 2007, Angela Merkel became the first chancellor of Germany to meet with
: the Dalai Lama. Her decision broke with many years of avoiding official
: contact with the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, and was sharply criticized
: by China.
: Bloomberg
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