z****n
发帖数: 5870 | 1 http://www.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/11/04/dalai.lama.trade.china/index.htm
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China trade: The 'Dalai Lama Effect'
Beijing, China (CNN) -- Countries whose top leadership meet with the
Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, lose on average 8.1
percent in exports to China in the two years following the meeting,
according to a recent study.
Called the "Dalai Lama Effect," the study by the University of
Gottingen in Germany found the negative impact on exports began when
President Hu Jintao took office in 2002.
The study is the first empirical analysis demonstrating the economic
consequence of such meetings. Machinery and transportation equipment
exports suffered the most consistent negative impact, following
meetings with the 14th Dalai Lama, according to study authors Andreas
Fuchs and Nils-Hendrik Klann.
"We wanted to find out the impact of the rising role of China in the
world ... to find out what we should expect of China's role in the
world in the coming years," researcher Fuchs told CNN. "It is clear
that politics has played a huge role in China's commercial
relationships."
China says it opposes politicizing trade and economic ties. However,
prior to each of the Dalai Lama's meetings with leaders, the Chinese
government often openly threatens that such meetings will lead to
damaged trade relations with China.
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am spokesman for Tibetans Dalai Lama on science, spirituality
Using data from the United Nations, Fuchs and Klann tracked exports
from 159 countries doing trade with China from 1991 to 2008. They
discovered that exports to China decreased only after the Dalai Lama
met with heads of state, such as presidents, prime ministers, kings,
queens and the Pope.
The Dalai Lama's meetings with heads of state -- including U.S.
presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, German chancellor Angela
Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy -- have been a consistent
source of diplomatic tension with China.
No negative impact was found after meetings of the Dalai Lama with
lower-ranking officials, the study said.
Dalai Lama talks of retirement
In response to the study findings, Tenzin Taklha, joint secretary for
the Dalai Lama in Dharamsala, told CNN: "His Holiness has no intention
of causing any inconvenience to the host country he visits."
Taklha added, "It is unfortunate that the Chinese government views
everything His Holiness does through a political angle."
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment.
The "Dalai Lama Effect" is not permanent, according to the study. The
negative impact on exports disappeared on average two years after each
meeting takes place.
"China has an interest in having its commercial relationships restored.
On the other hand, they have interest to really show their anger about
a Dalai Lama reception or meeting," Fuchs said.
My Take: Why the Dalai Lama became a global icon
The study went on to say, "China's political leadership may be willing
to bear the economic and political costs that arise from diverting
trade away from the Dalai Lama-receiving countries if such 'punishment'
increases the likelihood of its political survival."
The implications of decreased exports to China could hurt the Chinese
economy. "Blocking trade endangers Chinese economic growth, both from a
immediate short-term perspective, and longer-term perspective as trade
partners seek to diversify away from a potentially-aggressive China,"
said Alistair Thornton, China Analyst at IHS Global Insight, a
macroeconomic research firm.
Moreover, the government may not be responsible for the negative impact
on exports in the aftermath of meetings with the Dalai Lama.
"The possibility remains that Chinese companies are taking it upon
themselves to curb trade links, rather that it being a direct order
from the highest levels," Thornton said. "As machinery tools are
strongly linked to trade missions, and the government controls the
trade missions, the government would appear to be in control here. But
it could be less that the government has ordered a freeze on imports,
rather than removed one easy way for companies to strike deals for
those imports."
More than 95 percent of the Dalai Lama's visits to foreign countries
are non-political in nature, says the Dalai Lama's joint secretary, but
his meetings have long been the subject of intense debate in Beijing.
When the Dalai Lama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989, China
threatened to sever economic ties with Norway if Norwegian leadership
attended the ceremony.
In February of this year, U.S. President Barack Obama met with the
Dalai Lama in Washington despite warnings from Beijing. Following the
meeting, Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai summoned the U.S.
ambassador to express China's discontent.
"The U.S. act grossly interfered in China's internal affairs, gravely
hurt the Chinese people's national sentiments and seriously damaged the
Sino-U.S. ties," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu in a
statement in February.
The long term impact of the "Dalai Lama Effect" is uncertain.
"Chinese trade relations are not free of political biases ... the
country seems to exploit trade ties as a foreign policy tool," Fuchs
and Klann wrote. "[However] such an economic punishment mechanism will
only prevail as long as the expected political gains from stabilizing
the regime outweigh the losses from trade diversion." | c*******l
发帖数: 7820 | 2 很无聊啊
【在 z****n 的大作中提到】
: http://www.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/11/04/dalai.lama.trade.china/index.htm
: l
: China trade: The 'Dalai Lama Effect'
: Beijing, China (CNN) -- Countries whose top leadership meet with the
: Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, lose on average 8.1
: percent in exports to China in the two years following the meeting,
: according to a recent study.
: Called the "Dalai Lama Effect," the study by the University of
: Gottingen in Germany found the negative impact on exports began when
: President Hu Jintao took office in 2002.
| c***l
发帖数: 2395 | | l******e
发帖数: 12192 | 4 其实有点夸大了
不过，他们自己联系起来还是蛮好的
【在 c***l 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵，对付西方流氓就得比他们还流氓
| c***l
发帖数: 2395 | 5 未必啊，对于TG这种国家资本主义国家
要做到这点比民主国家容易多了
【在 l******e 的大作中提到】
: 其实有点夸大了
: 不过，他们自己联系起来还是蛮好的
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