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发帖数: 5125 | 1 外国网民猜测中国何时赶超美国(转载)点击：8389 回复：41 作者：上帝使者笑了
发表日期：2010-12-24 19:05:00 回复
【译文-中文】【经济学人】中国来了！预测号
【原文-英国】save the date
【原文地址】：http://www.economist.com/blogs/d ... date?page=1&sort=recommend
【译文来源】：网贴翻译论坛
【翻译作者】：康康Tainy
【联名作者】：传输用
【译文地址】：http://www.ptfcn.com/ptfcn/j/140.html
Save the date
Dec 16th 2010, 12:31 by P.W. and D.H
We invite you to predict when China will overtake America
CHINA jumped ahead of Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second-
biggest economy, but when will it grab the number-one slot?
The Economist’s interactive chart allows you to make your own
predictions. The relative paths of GDP in dollar terms in China and America
depend not only on real growth rates but also on inflation and the yuan’s
exchange rate against the dollar. Over the past decade real GDP growth
averaged 10.5% a year in China and 1.7% in America; inflation averaged 3.8%
and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the
yuan has risen by an annual average of 4.2%. Our best guess for the next
decade is that annual real GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in
America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3%
a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2019. But
if China’s real growth rate slows to an annual average of only 5%, then (
leaving the other assumptions unchanged) China would become number one in
2022. Please place your own bets.
保存数据
我们邀请您参与预测中国何时赶超美国
2010年中国一举超越日本成为世界第二大经济体，不过什么时候他会抓住第一的宝
座的？经济学人的互动图让你展示你的预测。用美元统计的相对GDP不光依赖于实际增
长率，还受到通货膨胀和人民币兑美元汇率的影响。在过去十年，中国的GDP增长是每
年10.5%美国是1.7%；年均通膨中国是3.8%美国是2.2%；自从北京2005年解除紧盯美元
的政策，人民币对美元每年升值4.2%。我们对未来10年最好的估计是中国实际GDP每年
增长7.75%，美国2.5%；通膨中国每年4%，美国1.5%；人民币每年升值3%。以这些数据
计算中国会在2019年赶上美国。但是如果中国实际GDP增长为每年5%（其他条件不变）
，那他要到2022年才能做上第一的宝座。现在大家来下注吧。
下载 (38.55 KB)
9 小时前
Real GDP Growth 是GDP实际增长率
Inflation是通胀率
Yuan appreciation是人民币增值率
这些数据无论是中国的还是美国的都可以改，大家来试一试吧。
评论翻译
Brookse wrote: Dec 16th 2010 3:17 GMT .
Prediction: China overtakes the US in 2021.
The US responds by annexing Mexico and Canada, with strong "political
ties" to Central and South America, and calls itself "Oceania".
China responds by annexing SE Asia, with strong "polical ties" to South
Asia, and the Middle East, calling itself "Eastasia".
Europe and Russia create a strong political bond, with strong "political
ties" to Africa, and calles itself "Eurasia".
Wait, I think I’’ve heard this before:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_book
Recommend (115)
我的预测结果：中国将会在2021年超过美国。
于是美国吞并了墨西哥和加拿大，和中美洲和南美洲建立了牢固的“政治关系”，
并把自己叫作“大洋洲”。
于是中国也吞并了东南亚，和南亚和中东建立了牢固的“政治关系”，把自己叫作
“东亚洲”。
而欧洲和俄罗斯则订下了盟约，和非洲建立了牢固的“政治关系”，并把自己叫作
“欧亚洲”。
等等，我觉得我在哪里看过这种说法：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_book
支持（115）
iewgnem wrote: Dec 17th 2010 5:22 GMT .
I think the elephant in the room is whether or not the USD will still be
used to measure GDP in 10 years time.
Recommend (108)
我认为大家一直避而不谈的是，美元在10年后是否还会被人拿来计算GDP。
Endema wrote: Dec 17th 2010 5:20 GMT .
Could we please have a similar chart including also India and the EU if
possible? Thank you.
Recommend (71)
可以的话，能否把印度和欧盟也添加进图表里面？先谢谢了。
支持（71）
Nguoiphanbien wrote: Dec 20th 2010 4:25 GMT .
I just don’’t understand why people are so silly to spend their
precious time responding to this gimmick of getting more eyeballs for the
magazine. Very soon you will find the anti-China crowds rushing in to give
all kinds of dire predictions for China and the pro-China crowds will
certainly jump in to respond in kind, and the cycle continues. In the
meantime, the Economist is laughing all the way to the bank.
Recommend (70)
我就是不明白为什么人们这么笨，把他们宝贵的时间浪费在这个纯粹是为这个网站
刷人气的玩意上。很快你们就会看到反中大部队冲进来给出各种各样的对中国的绝望预
测，而挺中大部队当然也会跳进来作出针锋相对的回应，于是两边厢你来我往周而复始
。而《经济学人》呢，就在你们的背后数它的钞票。
支持（70）
nkab wrote: Dec 20th 2010 5:01 GMT .
The Economist should better focuses its well regarded chart-graphic
technology to the prediction of world peace, greenhouse effects and global
weather anomalies, not to stoke the US-China relations already in distress
of some sorts.
China simply has no intention nor the facility to overtake America for
the foreseeable future. No good will come out of any wild prediction.
The US economy is still three times as large as China’s (and you don’t
want to know the per capita GDP or per capita anything in China).
《经济学人》应该把它小有名气的图表技术更多地用在预测世界和平，温室效应和
全球气候异常之上，而不是往已经够紧张的中美关系上面再添一把火。
在可预见的将来，中国都没有意图也没有能力来超越美国。任何粗浅的预测都是毫
无用处的。
美国的经济规模仍然3倍于中国（我还没说人均GDP呢，任何中国的人均数据你都不
会想知道）。
The US is still the world’s largest manufacturing base. The US dollar
still dominates world’s financial affairs by far.
The US outspends China in defenses 10 to 1 in real terms, with thousands
of military bases posted overseas and China has practically none, not even
one lousy aircraft carrier to prowl around its own coastal waters (all other
BRIC members have at least one to show for).
China just wants to develop itself to better prosperity for its people,
never mind that “overtaking” nonsense talk.
Recommend (69)
美国仍然是全球最大的制造基地。目前美元仍然统治着全球的金融活动。
按实际花费而言，美国在国防上的支出是中国的10倍，它拥有数千个海外军事基地
，而中国毛都没有，甚至找不到一条破烂的航母在它自己的海域附近巡航（金砖四国的
其它成员至少都有一条能拿得出手）。
中国只是想发展自己，让自己的人民生活得更富裕而已，从来不关心“超过”美国
什么的嘴炮。
支持（69）
G C wrote: Dec 20th 2010 3:12 GMT .
China’’s economy still lacks a strong middle class and a sustaining
domestic industry. China’’s GDP per capita is still miles behind its
European, American, and Japanese counterparts (aka, while the country
produces a lot, it’’s people are still poor). We have yet to see how China
handles the transition to an economy of consumption, and not just an export
economy that maintains an artificially low exchange rate. How will China
fare when it stops piggy-backing on peddling cheap goods to the rest of the
world? Some day, it needs to alters its domestic spending habits. Can China
handle that transition with 1 billion citizens, most still living below the
poverty line?
For more political-economic commentary, see www.GregContente.com.
Recommend (67)
中国的经济仍然缺乏一个强大的中产阶级以及可持续发展的国内产业。中国的人均
GDP仍然被它的欧洲、美国和日本对手远远甩了好几公里（或者这样说，虽然这个国家
生产了很多，但它的人民仍然很贫困）。我们仍要看中国如何转变成一个消费大国，而
不仅仅是一个人为地把汇率维持在低水平的出口大国。如果中国政府不再继续支持它的
企业向其他国家兜售低价商品，中国会变成什么样子？终有一天，中国要改变它的国内
消费习惯。中国能带着10亿大多数还生活在贫困线以下的人民，成功完成这一转变吗？
想要了解更多的政经评论，请登录www.GregContente.com。
支持（67）
（美帝打广告的业务水平也这么高，看来在美帝真不好混╮(╯_╰)╭
）
JawjahTek wrote: Dec 20th 2010 5:29 GMT .
Where are the charts from 20 years ago that confidently predicted the
date when Japan would overtake America?
Recommend (60)
你那个20年前就信心满满地预测出日本将在哪一天超过美国的图呢？
支持（60）
Jeremy Wong Fischer wrote: Dec 21st 2010 12:19 GMT .
There’’s some interesting implications here, and some interesting
debate.
First and foremost we should address what ’’taking-over’’ means. All
it means is that by aggregate GDP terms, China’’s statistic will be
higher than that of the U.S. But what does this actually mean? In reality
China is far far behind the United States in almost every way. Even when
2020 rolls along, millions of young, educated, and promising graduates will
still look to move abroad (mostly the US) for work. The US still produces
the majority of the world’’s scientific output, and not much happens
around the world without something that traces itself back to the US.
American cultural dominance around the world is unchallenged, even in places
traditionally considered hostile to the US. The reality is that US
dominance in every facet of modern life is quite entrenched and it will take
years and decades for it to subside, if it ever does.
这里有一些有趣的观点和讨论。
首先最重要的是，我们要搞清楚什么叫做“超过”。按《经济学人》的说法，“超
过”的意思是从GDP总量的角度看，中国的统计数字将会比美国的高。但这有什么实际
的意义呢？事实上，中国在几乎每个方面都远远落后于美国。即使在2020年到来的时候
，中国数百万年轻的受过教育的有远大前程的大学毕业生仍会想法移民到国外（主要是
美国）工作。美国仍然生产了全球大部分的科学成果，没有美国，这个世界将没什么精
彩之处。美国文化在世界上的统治地位是不可撼动的，即使在人们普遍认为的美国敌对
国里依然如此。事实上，美国在现代生活的方方面面都已经确立起了牢固的统治地位，
这种统治将会持续好几年甚至几十年，如果它也有尽头的话。
In addition, China’’s growth is bound to slow by 2020. By the
Economist’’s modest prediction, China’’s economy will hit roughly $50
trillion by 2025 (in fifteen years), almost doubling the size of the US. Is
this realistic?
All of that being said, aggregate economic output, regardless of whether
it’’s from cheap manufactured goods or higher-value products, is the new
bargaining chip of the 21st century. As such having China’’s economic
output exceed that of the US while it still trails in almost every other way
(health care, income, civil society etc.) will provide for an interesting
balance on the global scene. Indeed, a G-2 formation is likely - where it is
in the interest of both states to cooperate to ensure a stable global
economic environment (ie not Cold War II).
另外，中国的经济增长速度将会在2020年之前回落。根据《经济学人》的理性预测
，中国的GDP也会在2025年前（15年内）达到大约50万亿美元的地步，差不多是美国的
两倍。这可能吗？
话虽如此，巨大的经济体量，无论是来自廉价产品还是高价产品，都是21世纪谈判
桌上的新筹码。如果中国真的这样在经济产出上超过美国而在几乎其他所有方面（医疗
，收入和市民社会等等）仍然拖着后腿，这将在全球形成一个有趣的平衡。事实上，一
个G2的世界结构是有可能的——在这个结构里面，中美互相合作，维持一个稳定的全球
经济环境对双方都有好处（换言之，G2不是指第二次冷战）。
Crucially, however, two things about China cannot be understated,
particularly coming from an often ill-informed Western perspective often
exemplified by the Economist’’s flaming China-bashing articles. The first
is that the Chinese party-state, for better or for worse, has developed an
authoritarian system that has balanced the people’’s economic needs and
social stability. Many more Chinese approve of their leaders in Beijing than
their Indian, Brazilian, or Russian counterparts - and this is visible when
you talk to ordinary Chinese people, even those who have immigrated. China
’’s strategic investments in the "next emerging markets" such as Sub-
Saharan Africa, Latin America, and other countries often ignored by "the
West" will begin paying dividends in twenty-thirty years time. This will
give China an unparallel and largely unforseen advantage when the time comes.
然而关键的是，中国有两个地方不能低估，尤其是站在受到误导的西方立场上——
《经济学人》火上添油的对中国的抨击文章就是这种受误导立场的典型。第一是中国的
党国系统，无论怎样，它已经发展出了一个威权体系，在人民的经济需求和社会的稳定
性之间建立了平衡。支持自己政府的中国人要比支持自己政府的印度人、巴西人和俄罗
斯人多得多——当你和普通的中国人交谈的时候你就能体会得到，即使你是和中国的移
民交谈。中国对撒哈拉以南的非洲，拉丁美洲和其他经常被西方“忽略”的“下一批新
兴市场”国家的战略投资，将会在未来20到30年内开始获得回报。到了那时候，这将会
为中国带来一个很大程度上无法预料的非对称战略优势。
The second thing is that the purchasing power of the Chinese consumer is
already on a steady (and now steep) climb. Contemporary Chinese culture is
very materialistic - for example, China is now the world’’s largest luxury
goods market. Consumer goods spending is increasing much faster than GDP
growth. That, added onto the undervalued Yuan and purchasing power parity,
means that the approximate number of Chinese people who are now living
middle class lives comparable to their OECD peers is around 100-150 million.
The real Chinese middle class (defined as those who have a reasonable
amount of residual income on discretionary expenses) is somewhere around
400mln, more than the entire US population. You cannot ignore sheer size.
第二是中国消费者的购买力已经稳定地踏步前进（现在更是大踏步前进）。当前中
国的文化相当物质化——例如，中国现在已经是全球最大的奢侈品市场。消费产品的支
出一直要比GDP的增长速度快得多。如果我们把低估的人民币汇率和购买力平价也加进
来考虑，这意味着现在正过着能与经合组织*国家的中产阶级相匹配的生活的中国人大
致有1亿到1.5亿人。中国真正意义上的中产阶级（定义是那些刨除杂七杂八的花费后仍
然剩下相当程度的收入来供他们随意使用的人）大致有4亿人，超过整个美国人口。你
不能无视绝对数量。
*：OECD都是富逼国家。
In addition, the country is making headway into various high-value
markets, such as superconducters, aerospace engineering, and renewable
energy. This fact spills cold water on User G C’’s seemingly poignant post
about "peddling cheap goods" and "most population still below poverty line"
. Poverty in China has been largely eradicated in the last thirty years - (
latest statistic of those living under poverty line is 2% in China vs. 28%
in India). Even though a lot of the rural population still live on what
appear like measly incomes - food, water, shelter, electricity and other
basic needs have been fulfilled in the vast majority of the country. This
has yet to be reproduced in any other large developing country, including
Brazil. This is not to mention that China’’s infrastructure development,
such as that in high-speed rail, has already outpaced the US.
另外，这个国家正拼命挤进各个高端市场，例如超导体，航空工程和可再生能源。
这个事实恐怕要打那个叫G C的ID（楼上上）的脸了，他那个贴子似乎很酸呢，说什么
“兜售廉价产品”，什么“大多数人口仍然活在贫困线以下”。在过去的30年中国基本
上消灭了贫穷——关于贫困线以下人口的最新统计数字是中国2%对印度的28%）。尽管
很多农村人口仍然要靠看上去少得可怜的收入来维持生活——大部分人口的食品，水，
房屋，电力和其他基本的生活需求，中国都已经满足了。包括巴西在内的其他发展中大
国至今都未能做到这点。我们还没说中国的基建发展，例如高铁，已经超越了美国呢。
For everything that the Economist writes bashing China, I’’d like to
see an article one day describing what the Chinese government has done right
in the past thirty years. It is not an easy job to lift something like 800
million people out of poverty in thirty years and logically only a very
competent government could have done so. In my view, two things are
absolutely crucial for China’’s continued growth - will the country be
able to retain its human capital (its best and brightest) and will it become
a nexus of international transactions (people, money, goods) in its own
right? Development of civil society and rule of law is also crucial, but I
have an optimistic feel that this will come with time and a better educated
population (10-20 years). I am worried the least about political reform and
"democracy".
.Recommend (49)
面对《经济学人》所写的抨击中国的每处地方，我仍然相信有朝一日这里会有一篇
正确地描述了中国政府在过去30年所做的事情。在30年内让像8亿这样庞大的人口脱贫
并不是一件易事，逻辑上，只有一个非常称职的政府才能做到。在我看来，中国要想继
续发展，有两件事是绝对关键的——这个国家能否保住它的人力资本（它最优秀和最聪
明的人）和能否凭自己的力量成为全球流通（人流，资金流和物流）的枢纽。市民社会
和法制建设同样重要，但我对此很乐观，随着时间过去（10到20年后），中国的人口得
到更好的教育，这是能做到的。我对政治改革和“民主”最不关心。
支持（49）
wikilearn wrote: Dec 18th 2010 10:52 GMT .
If the US does not improve local economy; I guess China will catch up in
2017. China will trades more with Asia, and also EU will invests more in
Asia. US corporations will produce goods in Asia or whereever the cheapest
labor costs, unemployments remain high.
The US government must overhaul political economic structure,and
reengineer education system.
Recommend (39)
如果美国不能改善当地的经济，我猜中国会在2017年追上它。中国会和亚洲进行更
多的交易，同样欧洲也会在亚洲投资更多。美国的公司仍然会在亚洲或其他劳动力成本
最低的地方生产它的商品，本土的失业率不会好转。
美国政府必须对其政经结构进行大刀阔斧的改革，并调整它的教育系统。
支持（39）
mazim wrote: Dec 20th 2010 3:20 GMT .
China predictibilly will not overtake United States by 2019, 2022 or
even 2030. Yes, GDP growth in China still remains at 10% average but that
growth level will come to fall by year 2015 at 5% or less given the upward
growth of the US at 5% or better. This pace of growth in the US will keep
the Chinese behind in its economic growth. China will falter beacuse of its
institutional weaknesses vis,a,vis banking sector let alone other Government
sectors. The United States is beginning to place its house in order to
tackle this problem with economic growth per say. Therefor, keep predicting
and guessing what if China will take over the mantle of economic power from
the United States. One thing is good though about this prediction game that
policy makers in Washington DC will take this issue seriously and work it to
ddvelop an economic plan that will keep us number one in the world in that
realmn.
Recommend (33)
我预测中国在2019年、2022年甚至2030年之前都不能超过美国。对，中国的GDP增
长速度多年平均下来仍维持在10%的水平，但在2015年之前它就会下滑至5%甚至更低的
水平，而美国则会上升至5%或更高的水平。在这个水平下，美国将把中国的经济增长压
在它下面。中国将会举步维艰，因为它存在制度上的缺陷，我们对比一下中美两国的银
行部门就知道了，更不用说其他的政府部门了。美国为了解决这个经济增长的问题，已
经开始管好自己的事了。所以，猜猜如果中国接管了美国的全球经济霸权会发生什么事
。但这个预测游戏还是有一个好处的，那就是华盛顿的政策制定者将会严肃处理这个问
题，行动起来，制定出一个让我们在这个领域稳坐全球第一宝座的经济计划。
支持（33）
ObsTheTimes
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 5:26 GMT
This will be truly a seminal moment and bitter sweet when it happens.
Its very important to point out that we lost because China was so great
but also because we spent our national energy in a bunch of futile wars.
Wars galore!, one after the other after the other. Starting from Korea, then
Vietnam, then Desert Storm 1, 2, Afghanistan and a bunch of tiny ones in
between. These wars sapped our national strength and turned our young men
into warrior imbiciles instead of Engineers and manufacturers like the
Koreans and Chinese.
When Japan was gaining traction in automobiles we were fighting in
Vietnam and when Korea/Taiwan was gaining in semi conductors we were in
Desert Storm 1...
Recommend
(18)
这将是一个对历史影响巨大的时刻，这一时刻有苦有甜。
需要指出的是我们失败了因为中国是如此的巨大，但更重要的是我们把国家的经历
都花在一切毫无益处的战争之上。光荣的战争啊！一个接一个。先是朝鲜，然后是越南
。再然后沙漠风暴1,2，阿富汗还有中间一连串的小战争。战争逐渐削弱了我们的力量
，我们的年轻人都成了鲁莽的战士而不是韩国中国那样的工程师和产业工人。
日本走上汽车产业道路的时候我们在打越南战争，台湾韩国发展半导体的时候我们
再打沙漠风暴1~~
Carlos Collaco
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 4:39 GMT
The economy is not an exact science, leaving ample space for variation.
Going by economic history for the past 2 decades, more so the last one,
the trends for China and the US are very nearly .(?)
The multiple reasons for growth potential in either country too.
The logic of full-blown American invented capitalism - free capital flow
, free markets, free trade, free banking and finance - all now favour China
not the US.
If, however, an unforeseen event or circumstance crops up that alters
current assumptions then those trends can head off in a different direction.
Right now that seems unlikely though.
Japan, the previous runner-up failed badly to fulfil predictions made
earlier on in the 80’’s. Why?
It is not difficult to find sensible answers.
China, however, even if it were not racing along at breakneck speed is
an altogether different story.
Need I only mention the country’’s size, demography, still untapped
potential and its apparent collective focus?
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经济学不是一门精确地科学，其中可以变化的地方很多。
从过去20年特别是最近10年的情况看来，中美两国的发展趋势基本可以确定。（?）
两国的发展原因也基本如此。
成熟的美国逻辑创造出资本主义——自有资本流动，自由市场，自由贸易，自由的
银行和金融系统——这些东西现在反而对中国有利而非美国。
不过，如果有能改变现有假设的不可预见的事件或者环境转变突然出现，所有的形
式就将大逆转。
为什么之前的经济亚军日本完全没有达到80年代初的预期呢？
我想合理的答案不难找到。
而即使中国以前的速度不是一直那么惊人，她也和日本不同，她是另一回事。
需要我谈谈中国的规模，人口，发掘不完的潜能或者他明显的集体主义（原文是全
体的共同关注点）吗？
Drew Magoo
wrote: Dec 20th 2010 3:18 GMT
Top-stuff. I’’m a sucker for an interactive tool.
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这玩意棒极了，我就是互动式工具的爱好者。
KACEY1
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 11:15 GMT
According to Economist BigMac index, Chinese yuan is undervalued by 45%.
One bottle of Nestle drinking water in Beijing is one RMB Yuan, that is
15 cents. The same bottle of wter in a convient store in San Francisco is 2
USD, so the Chinese yuan is undervalued by 86%.
One bus ride in beining is 40 cents RMB, that is 6 cents USD, the same
bus ride in San Francisco is 2 USD, based on that Chinese Yuan is
undervalued by 97%.
One subway ride in beijing is 2 Chinese Yuan in a brand new 14 lines
system with free transfer, that is 30 cents USD. The same BART ride in San
Francisco is 6 dollars, the ride is horrible and slow like hell, it is
nothing like the Chinese brand new trains and stations.
But, the cost of a MBZ in China is hell lot more expensive than U.S.
China has 2.6 triilion USD as foreign reserve, it is incrasing 100
billion per month recently, on the other hand USD is running few billion
dollar deficits per day with hundreds of trillion underfunded obligations or
budegt deficits.
Chinese saves 25% to 50% of their income, while people in U.S. keeps on
getting more debts, student loans, mortgage debts, and all kinds of debts.
I think China will become the biggest economy somewhere around 2015 by
purchasing power.
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从经济学的巨无霸指数来看（就是用相同的货物来对比货币价值），人民币本低估
了45%。
北京的一瓶雀巢瓶装水只要1元，就是15美分。相同的水在圣佛朗西斯科的便利店
售价2美元，所以人民币被低估了86%。
北京的一张汽车票4毛钱，就是6美分，圣佛朗西斯科的车票2美元，于此算来人民
币被低估了97%。
北京在14条地铁线上随便坐的地铁票2人民币，就是30美分。圣佛朗西斯科的捷运
票要6美元，而且超级超级慢，根本不像中国的新车新站。
不过中国的奔驰车可比美国的贵多了。
中国有2.6万亿美元的外汇储备，现在还在以每月1000亿美元的速度递增，换句话
说，美国在数十万亿的赤字和债务之上每天又增加数十亿美元的赤字。
中国人把25%-50%的收入都储蓄起来，而美国人还在接着扩大自己的负债，什么学
生贷款啊，抵押贷款啊，还有种种的债务。
我想以购买力计算的话中国2015年就会成为最大的经济体。
Darian2
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 3:06 GMT
What does the US needs to do to leapfrog forward?
Economic growth. How?
Real Profit Sharing Will Stimulate Economic Recovery.
The National Bureau of Economic Research has defined the 5 components of
a healthyeconomic recovery.
They are: 1.Increased personal income 2.Increased employment 3.Increased
industrial production 4.Increased business sales volume 5.Increased Gross
Domestic Product statistics for 2 or more consecutive months.
What ONE economic strategy can accomplish all five of these at once?Real
profit sharing. Not profit sharing in its present puny form. If we want
rapid results, there must be a generous cash-back, frequent, predetermined
percentage of profits, shared with workers. And what would incentivize
private interests to participate? A tax credit. Allow businesses a tax
credit for their profit-sharing, up to 15-20% of net profits. A contingent
tax cut, in essence. 1.Profitsharing would rapidly raise household incomes,
causing increased supply and demand.2.An increase in supply and demand
precedes job creation. 3.Higher pay (linked to profits) incentivizes job
seekers, and hard work. - A motivated workforce increases industrial
productivity.4.Increased supply and demand also leads to increased sales
volume.5.A profitsharing tax credit is a built-in stimulus, which creates a
sustained healthy GDP.6.Additionally if this is practiced world-wide, it
could revitalize the global economy as well, and perhaps restore our nation
to a position of moral and economic leadership, by demonstrating a more
egalitarian model of free enterprise. All of the above, of course, leads to
a wider tax revenue base, and greater tax revenues.More jobs, more people
working, higher incomes lead to more paycheck with-holdings. It would
therefore replenish the Medicare and social security coffers as well. It
leads to a leaner government, that is more citizen and business friendly.
The profitsharing tax credit makes it easier for the unemployed “on-the-
street” to attain financial stability. It helps families pay for mortgages
and health care. It helps prevent the extremes of poverty and wealth by
natural design. Most importantly, it is politically neutral. It is the
missing link of conservative supply-side economics and the missing link of
liberal economic democracy. It dovetails liberal and conservative ideals. It
is two opposite turning gears doing work for the betterment of the people.
Why not try it in one state first, like NC, and if it works, expand the
program. The profitsharing tax credit will work. We can still be an economic
leader if we do this. If not we will shrink to a third world status.
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美国为了达到跨越式发展应该做些什么？
经济增长？怎么增长？
真正的分享利润才能刺激经济复苏。
国家经济研究局对健康的经济复苏有5方面定义。
他们分别是：1个人收入增长 2就业增长 3工业生产增长 4商品销售量增长 5国内
生产统计数字有2-3个月的持续增长。
什么样的经济策略能做到以上5点呢？只有真正的利润分享，现在这种只给一点点
的分享形式是不能奏效的。如果我们想办法能快速见效就要必须有大量的的现金回笼，
必须与工人频繁的有一定比例的分享利润。拿什么东西可以让私人参与到我们的计划当
中呢？那就是减税。对从业人员分到的利润应该见谁，税收只占纯利的15%-20%即可。
事实上减税应该视情况而定。1分享利润就可以提高家庭收入，进一步增进供给与需求
。2增加的供给与需求可以创造新的工作岗位。3好工资（与利益分享相联系的）会激励
找工作的热情和努力工作的动力——充满干劲的劳动力可以增加工业品生产。4增加的
的供给与需求又会扩大销售量。5基于利润分享的减税本身是创造稳定健康GDP的内在促
进因素。6如果这种模式在全世界推行全球经济也能复苏，说不定我们的国家还能重新
回到道德与经济领袖的地位上，因为我们又主导了一种更加公平化的模式。以上说的将
会产生更大的税收基础（更多的纳税人）和更多的税收岁入。更多的工作机会，更多工
作的人，更高的收入都会带来持股人更大的获益。医保和社保的资金也会更加充裕。同
时，政府将被精简成为一个对国民和公司都更加友好的机构。基于利益分享的减税可以
让大街上的失业者们更容易得到稳定的工作，也让家庭们更容易偿还抵押贷款和购买健
康保险，还能使国家中少出现财富的两极分化，最重要的是它在政治上是中立的，这正
是保守主义经济和自由民主经济中缺失的环节。基于利润分享的减税与两党的理念都能
吻合，两党像是两股相反的力量，不过他们也都是为了人民好，为什么不像NC一样先在
一国试行这种政策，如果有用就推广到全世界。这种减税一定可行，如果我们用它就还
能成为经济领袖，如果不用我们就会成为第三世界国家。
JoshuaJin
wrote: Dec 20th 2010 8:27 GMT
@Lucano Two very important correction.
1) Chinese are far richer than you think, and due to some reason, the so
-called overpriced stockmarket and real estate market is not as bad as
people think. Actually about the emerging China’’s real estate market, I
have something very interesting to say later.
2) Chinese people are pretty tough, unlike protesting europeans, when it
comes to hardship, Chinese people prefer shut up and work their way out
instead of blaming others.
Again the two fact above I said are more psychological than economic.
Chinese have a strong belief about family, but not only family members, the
house itself is a very important symbol of a stable,satisfied family life.
Parents buy their child a house as their graduation gift&wedding gift. Would
you buy a house for 50years leasehold at 1 million pounds(about 10k per
month) when you can rent a house at same size,same location at monthly rate
2 grand? In China, you will find most people give you YES. Reason is simply
"I need to feel home".
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Lucano 有两个很重要的地方需要修正
1中国人远比你想象的富有，由于某些原因，那些被称为过热的股市和房市并没有
我们想象的那么糟糕。事实上关于中国的房市我等等有话要说。
2中国人很能吃苦，不像被抗议困扰的欧洲，中国人遇到困难会用自己的方法解决
而不是抱怨别人。
我再重复一下，以上两点针对心理超过针对经济本身。中国人对家庭有很强的信念
，这种信念不管是指家庭成员，还包括房子本身，房子在中国是稳定的，令人满足的家
庭生活的重要象征。父母们会买房子给孩子做为毕业或者结婚的礼物。如果有一套房子
，你可以花100万英镑（每月10K，我不知道这是多少，请高人指点）50年分期贷款买下
它，或者在同样的地段找同样大小的房子租下来每月2000英镑租金，你选哪一个？在中
国，大部分人都选择买下来，原因很简单“我需要家的感觉”
thejsto
wrote:
Dec 21st 2010 12:09 GMT
What do you mean "When China overtakes the US"? They already have! They
produce more goods than the US exponentially, they are expanding (not just
in population but) in business, sciences and new construction. The list
doesn’’t end.. Economist your question should have been worded differently
, something along the lines of: "When will America accept the fact that they
are no longer the super power?"
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你问“中国何时取代美国”是什么意思？他们已经取代美国了！中国生产的货物比
美国多，而且多的要以指数计算，他们的商业，科学，新建设都在扩展（但然还有人口
），这个名单还有很长~~经济学人的问题措辞应该不同，比如用“美国何时能够接受他
们不再是超级大国的事实？”更好。
Michael Dunne
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 5:12 GMT
What is the implication of higher inflation?
I ask because I heard that China possibly is experiencing a real
inflation rate that may be higher than the official inflation rate.
Now if I substituted 8% for the 4% given as the default setting for
China’’s inflation, I noticed the period for matching the US’’ in
economic side moves forward to 2017 or so.
I would have thought the crossover would have moved to a later time
period...
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高通胀到底是何含义？
我这样问是因为听说中国可能正在经历一场比官方发布数据更高的通胀。
现在，如果在中国通胀率一栏提交8%而不是默认的4%，我发现中国赶上美国的时间
提前到了2017年。
我本以为这样会让交点推后一段时间的。
GeorgeFarahat
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 5:06 GMT
Economics is at the heart of growth. One thing that can help economic
growth is offering good university education at a low cost so more people
become educated with quality education. I think that culturally the U.S. is
behind China in terms of offering free education to its citizens.
Individualism which is the product of capitalism does not help, but on the
other hand collective socialism is worse. The solution should be in finding
a middle way.
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经济的核心就是增长。对经济增长帮助很大的一件事就是向公民提供低价的良好大
学教育，这样国民就会成为有高质量的教育背景的人。我想从文化上说来美国就是在向
国民提供免费教育这点上落后于中国。资本主义产生的个人主义对此没什么帮助，不过
社会集体主义就更糟糕，真正的解决办法应该在两者之间。
BailoutNation
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 10:45 GMT
Around 2020 sounds about right, especially if the Dems retain their
Senate majority and stay in the White House past 2012. And if god forbid
Sarah Palin wins in 2012, China will overtake us even sooner.
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要说是在2020年比较靠谱，特别是民主党能保持他们在参议员的多数席位而且2012
年以后还能留在白宫的话。如果上帝都不让佩林赢得2012年大选，中国超越我们的时间
点还会来的更早。
GeorgeFarahat
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 4:52 GMT
@Darian2
I am interested in discussing your ideas if they are feasible. My
question is how these ideas can be extended to the global economy? How can
they help African peoples get out of their miseries? It seems to me that
economic recovery is entangled with political will, and since it is hard to
predict human will, it is therefore hard to imagine a world of real shared
profits.
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Darian2（就是说了一大段减税的那位）
我想和你谈论一下你的注意是否可行。我的问题是怎样将这些计划在全世界推行？
他们要怎么帮助非洲人摆脱他们可悲的命运呢？对我来说经济复苏总是被政治意愿所困
，因为人的意愿是很难预测的，所以想象一个真正分享利益的世界也挺难的。
new student 2009
wrote:
Dec 21st 2010 3:40 GMT
Nothing lasts forever, so America will be taking over.
It is no important for me whether America will be taken over by China or
by other country, as long as China is developed according to its plan so
that Chinese people will enjoy a better life in the future.
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没有什么是天长地久的，所以美国将被超过。
对我来说美国会不会被中国或者其他什么国家超过都不重要，只要中国能按自己的
计划发展，中国人以后能过上好生活就行了。
bluenoserboy
wrote: Dec 20th 2010 7:06 GMT
If China is replacing America on the world-stage, then I hope that they
never hear a rumour that we have WMDs here in Canada.
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如果中国在世界舞台上取代了美国，到时我希望不要传出我们加拿大有大规模杀伤
性武器的谣言。
xinglongnite
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 9:26 GMT
If you remove the frame of reference and unplug the country from the
rest of the world, then that country would no longer be comparable by way of
disappearance.
For that reason I believe China would overtake the US substantially
sooner than 2019. What the Fed is doing to the dollar today is indeed making
the US less credible and less relevant in a hurry. But the Fed has to do
what it has to do, because the spendthrift Americans and the gridlocked
Washington didn’’t offer a better choice.
All China has to do is to continue its 18% annual money supply growth to
help ’’discover’’ the true worth of its land, goods, and labor, and its
so-called hypergrowth would continue effortlessly, thanks to the same
efficiently interconnected world.
You prosper by globalization, and you perish by globalization. But
globalization didn’’t just start when China acceded to the WTO, or even
when Nixon shook hand with Mao. Those who should take the credit for letting
China into this banquet came much earlier, so no one alive today should
take the blame for China’’s success.
In fact we should not even worry about when would China catch up with
the US, we should first worry about what’’s the Fed to do to land the US
economy after the QE era. Where is China and when depends up the frame of
reference, the US, and it’’s the future of the US we’’d better debate
about.
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如果你把参考系都弄走再把一个国家从其他国家中分离出来，这个国家就不能再用
（因为参考系消失而）消失了的方法进行比较。
基于这个原因，我认为中国超过美国会远早于2019年。现今美联储对美元做的事情
已经很快就让美元的信用下降，变得不可靠。但是美联储做的又是他不得不做的事，因
为挥霍无度的美国人和处处被动的华盛顿提不出更好的选择了。
中国要做的就是继续他每年18%的货币供应增量以帮助她“发现”她的土地，商品
，劳动力的真正价值，她的高增长还会不费吹灰之力，这真的感谢被相互有效关联的世
界。
全球化带给你繁荣，全球化带给你毁灭。但是全球化不是从中国加入WTO以后才开
始的。甚至不是尼克松和毛握手的时候开始的。这两样都只是让中国参加全球化盛宴更
早了一点，所以现在活着的人没有一个需要为中国的成功收责备。事实上我们不应该为
中国何时赶上美国担心，倒是该先想想在量化宽松之后美联储怎么让美国经济着陆。中
国在哪里还有何时赶上取决于她的参考系美国，还有就是我们要好好说说美国的未来。
*最后一句我也没看明白*
shenburke
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 8:08 GMT
@ Michael Dunn
The reason that a higher rate of inflation, with all else being held
equal, makes China’’s economy grow more quickly relative to the US’’ is
because higher inflation not only means higher prices, but higher wages and
profits as well.
Normally, an increase in inflation will lead to a decrease in the value
of the domestic currency (so if you put 8% for inflation, yuan appreciation
would most likely decrease or become negative). In theory, these two effects
would cancel each other out, and neither changes in inflation or changes in
the exchange rate would have any "real" effects on the GDP.
But the world rarely behaves as theory would predict (especially in
economics).
It is plausible that both inflation and the yuan appreciation rate
remain high over the next decade or so, especially if the yuan is indeed
heavily undervalued. The combined effect of the two rates would make foreign
goods cheaper for Chinese consumers, and Chinese goods more expensive to
foreigners, thus leading to the correction of what is likely a large
economic imbalance.
However, this is exactly the combination that would also lead to a
Chinese economy which overtakes the American one even sooner.
So, you really can’’t have it both ways.
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Michael Dunn
如果其他条件不变，高通胀就会让中国的增长速度相对美国来说更快，因为高通胀
不光意味着高价格还意味着高工资，还意味着高工资和高利润。
一般来说，通胀的增加将会导致国内货币价值的减少（如果你在通胀一栏填8%，人
民币的价值上升就会为零或者负值）。理论上说来，通胀的改变和汇率的改变可以互相
抵消，“真正”影响GDP的（统计）效果。
不过世界很少按着理论预测的发展（特别是经济学）我们有理由相信通胀和人民币
升值在未来十年还会保持高位，特别是在人民币被严重低估的情况下。以上两者的共同
作用会使得外国商品对中国顾客变得便宜而中国商品对外国顾客变贵，这样就能纠正世
界上貌似最大的不平衡经济体的不平衡现状。
但是这也正是让中国经济能更快超过美国的组合。
所以，你不能两者兼有。
Skier1
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 11:20 GMT
I’’d be interested to read where all the fossil fuels, minerals and
metals buried unerground are coming from to resource a Chinese and Indian
population 7 times bigger than the US and all expecting to achieve American-
style consumption levels over the next 50+ years...
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(10)
我想知道的是中国和印度，这两个7倍于美国人口，而且打算在50多年内达到美式
消费标准的国家发展需要的石油，矿产和金属现在埋在世界的什么地方？
ChineseCentury
wrote:
Dec 21st 2010 4:37 GMT
i see that american sympathisers cannot accept that fact that china will
leave the US in the dust.
america is nothing compared to china.
america is a totally corrupt society that is based on lies, manipulation
and media propaganda.
china is the world’’s only economic superpower, china has been
propping up the dead american economy for over 15 years now.
without china, america will collapse and break up like the soviet union.
america will collapse soon, mark my words, massive debts, currency
collapse through unlimited printing, military overstretch, higher taxes and
much higher interest payments on the debt will make sure the United States
ends up like another soviet union.
china will rule the world.
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我看到美国同情者们不能接受中国将把美国甩在脑后的事实，美国没什么能和中国
比。
美国建立在谎言，操纵和媒体宣传基础上的社会已经完全腐败了。
中国是世界的唯一经济超级大国，她已经支撑了将死的美国经济超过15年。
没有中国，美国就会崩溃，像苏联那样垮掉。
我预言，美国就要崩溃，大量的债务，因为无止境的印钞造成的货币崩溃，军事过
度扩张，高税收还有债务的高利率都会让美国像另一个苏联一样完蛋。*中国人？中国
支持者？*
COMEME
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 11:57 GMT
If China progresses as it has been without outside interferences, it
will certainly overtake the US within 10 to 15 years in GDP. I am not
talking about per capita income. That will take much loger times. But you
can be rest assure the US and the West will not allow China to grow the way
it has been. Thank about what the US and the West did to a fast rising Japan
in the 80s. They stopped Japan on its track, so that it could never post a
threat to them again. Never mind Japan had been a democractic country. The
US and the West will do whatever they can by hook or crook to make sure
China will not overtake them economically, politically and militarily. You
can bank on it. At every chance they get they will stoke revolt inside China
as a way to foster regime change. They will conspire together to put
economic pressures on China, such as putting up protectionist rules against
Chinese made products, raising tariff on its goods and pressuring China to
appreciate it currency and on and on. All of these measures are taken to
ensure Chinese economy will collapse.
Hence, Chinese revolt will follow and a democratic government will
emerge in the image of the US and the West. This is the ultimate goal of the
US and the West. If it comes to past, the predominated white West and the
US will continue to dominate the world until may be India will rise to
challenge them.
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如果中国像他以前那样不受任何外界干扰的发展，只要10-15年GDP就会超过美国。
我说的不是人均收入，这方面中国还得花更长时间。不过西方和美国是不会让中国按她
原有的模式发展的。感谢美国和西方80年代对日本所做的一切，日本的发展停止了，这
样日本就不能再对他们构成威胁了，他们根本不在乎日本是民主国家了。美国和西方会
不择手段的阻止中国在经济，政治，军事上超过他们，这一点可以确信。他们一有机会
就挑动中国内部暴动，把这当做是促进政权更迭的方法。他们联合起来谋划如何对中国
经济施压，比如针对中国商品采取贸易保护政策，提高中国商品关税还有促进人民币升
值等等，所有这一切手段都是为了让中国经济崩溃，然后中国就会发生反叛，民主政府
就会出现在美国和西方的视线里，这就是美国和西方的终极目标。如果这些实现的话，
主导世界的美国和西方白人就会接着主导世界直到印度的兴起挑战了他们，这只是可能。
Ed (Brazil)
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 7:17 GMT
I don’’t believe China will overtake the US. Something will change
before that happens. Maybe the second part of this crisis, which is not over
yet. Not even close to over. Expect disruptions, and you will be more
prepared. Don’’t, and just put any year for your forecast. It doesen’’t
matter. It won’’t happen.
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（自称是巴西人的人）
我不相信中国会超过美国，在这一事件发生之前一定会有变故。可能会是经济危机
的第二部分，虽然他的第一部分现在还没有结束，甚至都没有接近结束。中断一下，你
会更有准备。不要预测年份了，这是无所谓的东西，超越不会发生。
The Magic Dragon
wrote:
Dec 21st 2010 3:22 GMT
I’’ve lived in China for five years (all over China). They’’re going
to take over the world! Why? History, they’’re due, they want it badly!
They’’re motivated, and hard working -- just as intelligent as any group!
When I told a woman in Beijing that ’’they’’ (the country) were
going down ’’the wrong road,’’ she looked at me and said, ’’We want
what you’’ve had!’’
But, they think it’’s all ’’upside’’ just like we mistakingly
thought (the bubble would never burst). They too will end up ’’killing the
goose that laid the golden egg!’’ -- with all the concomitant problems:
over population chasing scarcer resources (war), congestion, pollution,
corruption, etc.
In the meantime, I suggest you make sure your children study the Chinese
language, as language is culture. If they’’re bi-lingual more likely to
get a job and survive!
That is if we don’’t ’’off ourselves’’ in the interim!
H.
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我在中国已经呆了5年（全国各地）。他们正在超过美国！为什么？由于历史，他
们非常想得到他们！他们很有动力，工作也很努力——而且和任何团体一样聪明！
当我跟一个北京妇女说“他们”（中国）走在“错误的路上”时，她看着我说“我
们要你们现在拥有的一切！”
但是，他们认为这是“向上走”就像我们错误的认为（泡沫永不会破裂）。他们还
有结束“杀鸡取卵”的意愿——还有随之而来的问题：过多的人口追求稀缺的资源（战
争），拥挤，污染，腐败等等。
同时，我建议你们让你们的孩子学汉语，因为语言就是文化。如果他们会双语就更
容易找到工作和生存。
我们不要把自己排除在这个过渡时期之外。
An Drew
wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 9:26 GMT
I know I am prejudiced and don’’t want to accept reality but it hurts
me emotionally when I think of the US not being no.1 anymore...
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我知道我有偏见，也不愿意接受现实，可是想想美国不再是世界第一我的感情就很
受伤。
voice for freedom
wrote:
Dec 21st 2010 10:18 GMT
As a Chinese,I feel China’’s GDP is inflated and it’’s a false glory
. what we really see is the deepening gap between the rich and the poor, the
unprecedented corruption of bureaucrats, the skyrocketing housing price and
increasing cost of living. What do people get from the GDP?
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作为一个中国人我认为中国的GDP是被夸大的，就是虚假繁荣。我们真正看到的是
贫富之间深刻的差距，官僚们空前的腐败，飞涨的房价和生活支出。人们从GDP中到底
得到了什么呢？ | S******8
发帖数: 24594 | 2 我多次跟公司的老美说到，中国的实际GDP, 还有财富产出，早已经超过美国了，他们
都比较坦然地接受这个事实 | s****r
发帖数: 31686 | 3 然后我们公司好多老美都在琢磨移民中国， 我告诉他们， 没戏， 他们条件不够， 一
个个郁闷了好几个月
【在 S******8 的大作中提到】
: 我多次跟公司的老美说到，中国的实际GDP, 还有财富产出，早已经超过美国了，他们
: 都比较坦然地接受这个事实
| S******8
发帖数: 24594 | 4 你应该告诉他，美国再烂，那也是你的家，还是努力工作，建设好自己的家乡，争取不
要被中国甩得太远
【在 s****r 的大作中提到】
: 然后我们公司好多老美都在琢磨移民中国， 我告诉他们， 没戏， 他们条件不够， 一
: 个个郁闷了好几个月
| s****r
发帖数: 31686 | 5 我是这么开刀他们的， 不过似乎效果不大
【在 S******8 的大作中提到】
: 你应该告诉他，美国再烂，那也是你的家，还是努力工作，建设好自己的家乡，争取不
: 要被中国甩得太远
| S*********4
发帖数: 5125 | 6
你们太不谦虚了。
应该跑去告诉他们，中国尽管经济快速增长，但是专制独裁。相比之下，印度尽快债台
高筑、贱民四溢，但是民主自由。美国应该宁要印度的民主自由，不要中国的专制独裁
。
【在 S******8 的大作中提到】
: 你应该告诉他，美国再烂，那也是你的家，还是努力工作，建设好自己的家乡，争取不
: 要被中国甩得太远
| T******y
发帖数: 14506 | 7 some of 我们公司老美 even wanted to waif wsnv. I told them 关键是彼此对对方
的印象。
| C***J
发帖数: 7594 | 8 人均超美国， 不仅你看不到，2代，3代也看不到。 | S*********4
发帖数: 5125 | 9 。
这个我相信，就好比我们永远无法人均超苏联了一样，因为苏联已经不存在了。
【在 C***J 的大作中提到】
: 人均超美国， 不仅你看不到，2代，3代也看不到。
| b*******t
发帖数: 4756 | 10 就这智商，应该不会甩太远。
【在 S******8 的大作中提到】
: 你应该告诉他，美国再烂，那也是你的家，还是努力工作，建设好自己的家乡，争取不
: 要被中国甩得太远
| e**s
发帖数: 4638 | 11 目前只有 A3 有这个胆气这么说 ～～～～～～～lol
【在 S******8 的大作中提到】
: 你应该告诉他，美国再烂，那也是你的家，还是努力工作，建设好自己的家乡，争取不
: 要被中国甩得太远
|
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