u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 1 http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/12/save_date
We invite you to predict when China will overtake America
AMERICA'S GDP is still roughly twice as big as China’s (using market
exchange rates). To predict when the gap might be closed, The Economist has
updated its interactive chart below with the latest GDP numbers. This allows
you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and
America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar.
Over the past ten years, real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a year in China and
1.6% in America; inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averaged 4.3%
and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the
yuan has risen by an annual average of just over 4%. Our best guess for the
next decade is that annual GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in
America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3%
a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2018.
Alternatively, if China’s real growth rate slows to an average of only 5%,
then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) it would not become number
one until 2021. What do you think?
A broader analysis by The Economist finds that China has already overtaken
America on well over half of 21 different indicators, including
manufacturing output, exports and fixed investment. The chart below predicts
when China will surpass America on the rest. By 2014, for example, it could
be the world’s biggest importer and have the largest retail sales. America
still tops a few league tables by a wider margin. Its stockmarket
capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s, and it spends five times
as much on defence. Even though China’s defence budget is growing faster,
on recent growth rates America’s will remain larger until 2025. | m**********n
发帖数: 27535 | | L********h
发帖数: 657 | 3 文科佬的数据真很不可靠
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per
按照文科佬膜拜的IMF的预测
中国去年的人均GDP PPP是7,544USD
美国是46,860 USD
怎么会是0.5?难道不是0.16？
has
allows
and
【在 u***r 的大作中提到】
: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/12/save_date
: We invite you to predict when China will overtake America
: AMERICA'S GDP is still roughly twice as big as China’s (using market
: exchange rates). To predict when the gap might be closed, The Economist has
: updated its interactive chart below with the latest GDP numbers. This allows
: you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and
: America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar.
: Over the past ten years, real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a year in China and
: 1.6% in America; inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averaged 4.3%
: and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the
| L********h
发帖数: 657 | 4 你赚的是购买力（依靠美军）很强大的美元
怕什么
【在 m**********n 的大作中提到】
: 不说中国经济马上就垮了么？
| p**********6
发帖数: 3408 | 5 图里的不是per capita
【在 L********h 的大作中提到】
: 文科佬的数据真很不可靠
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per
: 按照文科佬膜拜的IMF的预测
: 中国去年的人均GDP PPP是7,544USD
: 美国是46,860 USD
: 怎么会是0.5?难道不是0.16？
:
: has
: allows
: and
| u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 6 还说明一个问题，中国确实是和平发展:军费涨得最慢 |
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