t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 1 http://www.marketplace.org/topics/world/chinas-hangover/china-r
By Rob Schmitz, Marketplace for Wednesday, July 3, 2013
The financial district of Yujiapu in the port city of Tianjin aims to be a
rival to Manhattan within ten years. The government has spent billions
building replicas of Rockefeller Center, Lincoln Center, and are building
China's largest high-speed rail station here. Economists question the
district's future.
A construction worker rests underneath a bulldozer amidst the rubble of
Yujiapu, one of the largest construction sites in the world, where the city
of Tianjin is building dozens of skyscrapers in an effort to create one of
the world's largeste financial centers.
The buildings rising from a saltwater marsh in the port city of Tianjin
looks an awful lot like New York City. But don't be fooled, says Lin Lixue,
a dapper young spokesman for a local developer. This Manhattan replica aims
to be a bigger Apple.
"Our goal is to create the world's largest financial center, right here,
within ten years," says Lin. "We're building skyscrapers, we've got China's
largest high-speed railway station coming soon, we're building a tunnel
under the sea, and we'll soon build several subway lines."
Li sounds like a boy whimsically building sandcastles. And this is a very
big sandbox. The city‘s called Yujiapu. It's now one of the biggest
construction sites on the planet. Workers are completing dozens of
skyscrapers, many over 50 stories tall.
Zhang Xiaoying is a real estate analyst for Tianjin Centaline Property
Consulting. Her job is to advise those who are interested in investing in
this area. What is she telling them about China's next Manhattan?
"Don't invest here!" Zhang says loudly, "It's way too risky. Some developers
have re-sold entire buildings at a loss just so they can pull out of here
as soon as possible. For the projects that are finished, the investors are
now pulling out."
The way Zhang sees it, Yujiapu is more Detroit than Manhattan, and it hasn't
even been built yet. So I ask her: why IS it being built?
"Hu Jintao," Zhang says with a nervous giggle.
Under Hu's presidency, China's economy grew at an unprecedented rate. The
formula for much of that growth has been pretty straight-forward, says
economist Anne Stevenson-Yang.
"All the land belongs to the government. The government has the right to
clear the land. Take it over, and then to either build stuff on it
themselves, sell it to a developer or use it as collateral for loans. They
do all three, and they've made a killing doing it."
Stevenson stands in the ravine-like surroundings of a narrow avenue between
giant half-finished skyscrapers in Yujiapu. She says the Tianjin government
took this land, assessed it at many times its current value, and then used
it as collateral for loans. She says Tianjin has borrowed nearly as much as
its entire annual GDP to pay for Yujiapu. With China's economy now in
slowdown mode, Stevenson-Yang says the region's future is bleak.
"Think of it: every single dollar made in Tianjin, one for one, is lent to
this particular district which will be written off to no more than a tenth
of its value. Where does that money go? It just doesn't disappear. It
becomes everybody's debt."
She predicts that ten years from now, China's property bubble will have
burst, land will be worth around half of what it is now, and squatters will
inhabit Yujiapu's half-built skyscrapers, like something out of a "Mad Max"
movie.
"This is going to be 'Apocolypse Then.' It's sad. I've lived in china for 23
years. I have a huge batch of Chinese in-laws. I like China. I wish things
were different. But I don't see how they can be." In the meantime, China's
Manhattan project marches forward, thanks, in part, to support at the
highest levels of government.
An ambitious former Tianjin mayor, Zhang Gaoli, helped secure funding for
this district. He now works in Beijing as China's Vice Premier. After
hearing Stevenson-Yang's grisly predictions for Yujiapu, I return to the
dapper young developer's office to ask a few more questions.
Inside, the only sign of life is a receptionist. She's sleeping at the front
desk. A tense-sounding piano tune plays over the PA system, echoing through
the marble halls. In front of her desk are framed advertisements for the
future city. One proclaims in English: "Concentrate world capital and set
China's ambition."
Outside, a city is being built. And the receptionist continues to sleep. | a****8
发帖数: 733 | | t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 3 天津市的发展要注重均衡, 不能只盯着滨海新区, 而忽略了市区. 毕竟天津市的人口主
要集中在市内六区及其周边郊县.
文中所说的于家堡金融区基本都是商业建筑, 容易导致地产泡沫, 风险比较大, 要提高
警惕, 当心变成第二个海南或是鄂尔多斯. | N******K
发帖数: 10202 | 4 天津市区 道路狭窄 乱哄哄
【在 t***h 的大作中提到】
: 天津市的发展要注重均衡, 不能只盯着滨海新区, 而忽略了市区. 毕竟天津市的人口主
: 要集中在市内六区及其周边郊县.
: 文中所说的于家堡金融区基本都是商业建筑, 容易导致地产泡沫, 风险比较大, 要提高
: 警惕, 当心变成第二个海南或是鄂尔多斯.
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