s*****V
发帖数: 21731 | 1 Facebook will bleed the majority of its users over the next three years,
according to a pair of Princeton researchers in a new paper (PDF).
Those researchers, John Cannarella and Joshua Spechler, arrived at that
conclusion by comparing Facebook to an infectious disease. That’s sort of
logical: both depend on networks of human beings to “transmit” and grow;
and just as people shake off viruses, they should (according to the theory,
at least) eventually stop using Facebook: “Recovery spreads infectiously as
users begin to lose interest in the social network.”
But how do a bunch of determined scientists actually trace Facebook’s
theoretical rise and fall? Cannarella and Spechler decided to use the
frequency with which “Facebook” is typed into Google as their main dataset
(various other studies have also relied on Google Trends as the basis for
predictions). Those search queries reached a peak in December 2012.
The researchers took that dataset and plugged it into prebuilt model for the
spread of infectious disease, tweaked things a bit, and found that Facebook
—like any plague that’s burned through a significant portion of a
population—will decline before the decade is out.
“The search query data suggests that Facebook has already reached the peak
of its popularity and has entered a decline phase, as evidenced by the
downward trend in search frequency after 2012,” the paper noted. “
Extrapolating the best fit into the future shows that Facebook is expected
to undergo rapid decline in the upcoming years, shrinking to 20 [percent] of
its maximum size by December 2014.”
Between 2015 and 2017, it added, Facebook will lose 80 percent of its peak
user base—if the social network actually follows the “best fit” model
established by the researchers’ underlying algorithm. It’s equally likely,
the researchers wrote, that Facebook ends up declining at a slower rate
than the one predicted by that model. “The reason for this asymmetry is
that the decline is entirely dictated by data occurring in after 2012,”
they wrote. “If the post-2012 data is ignored, a solution in which Facebook
continues indefinitely at a constant size is possible.”
In other words, multiple models exist for Facebook’s triumph, stagnation,
or outright ruin—all supported by the data (that’s science for you). To be
fair, the researchers ran the term “MySpace” through their model and
found it traced that social network’s rise and fall with some accuracy; but
Facebook is much larger than MySpace at its peak, and woven much more
pervasively throughout the fabric of the Web—thousands of Websites rely on
the Network That Zuckerberg Built to connect with users, advertise, sell
products, and much more. That prevalence alone should slow any Facebook
decline.
In addition, Facebook has begun releasing standalone apps such as Messenger,
as part of a broader strategy to expand the company’s branding and
functionality beyond its core Website. (The Instagram acquisition was part
of this effort, as well.) Whether that helps Facebook maintain its userbase
in coming years is an open question, especially as new generations of
startups arise to take it on—but it’s clear that the social network, like
any good virus, intends to mutate into ever-hardier forms. | T**E
发帖数: 1892 | | m****n
发帖数: 2754 | 3 买买提号称“海外华人第一阴户”
既然是阴户，肯定有人来插
【在 T**E 的大作中提到】
: 那买买提呢？
| t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | 4 千门万户瞳瞳日，总把新桃换旧符。。。又要过年啦 ～～ | z******o
发帖数: 3073 | 5 不说其他的，那twitter比新浪微博差的也太远了。 | d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 6 社交网站都是这个下场， 就是一代人的热乎。
早前国内什么5460， 人人之类的， 也都曾经红火10。
这种东西更像快节奏网游。 要不断的开新服。
每个人尤其年青人都喜欢人前显赫的感觉， 不喜欢去钻别人的旧圈子。
fb要想长久， 还是要找到新服模式 | e***l
发帖数: 710 | 7 Facebook 的人用类似的手段分析出普林斯顿几年后就没有学生了, 哈哈 | b****l
发帖数: 23606 | 8 这不可能。我绝对压facebook死在普林斯顿前面。
【在 e***l 的大作中提到】
: Facebook 的人用类似的手段分析出普林斯顿几年后就没有学生了, 哈哈
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