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Military版 - 未完工的桥梁和烂尾的中俄伙伴关系
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An Unfinished Bridge, and Partnership, Between Russia and China
By ANDREW HIGGINS July 19, 2016
ANDREW HIGGINS 2016年7月19日
NIZHNELENINSKOYE, Russia — Trumpeted for the past decade as
an emblem of Russia’s destiny as an Asian as well as a European
power, the huge steel bridge thrusts out from the Chinese side of the
Amur River, stretching more than a mile across the turbid waters that
divide the world’s most populous nation from its biggest.
俄罗斯下列宁斯科耶——过去10年里,这座钢架大桥被大加颂扬,称它
象征着俄罗斯作为亚洲和欧洲强国的天命。它从阿穆尔河(中国称黑龙
江——译注)的中国一侧河岸探出逾一英里,越过混浊的河水,要把全
世界人口最多的国家和面积最大的国家连接起来。
Then something strange happens: The bridge abruptly stops, hanging
in the air high above the river just short of the Russian shore at
Nizhneleninskoye, a remote frontier settlement nearly 4,000 miles from
Moscow.
然后,奇怪的事情发生了:这座桥的工程戛然而止,高悬在河面上,只
差最后一点即可到达位于俄罗斯一侧的下列宁斯科耶。下列宁斯科耶是
一个偏远的边疆地区,距离莫斯科将近4000英里。
The gap between the bridge and the riverbank — left by Russia’s
failure to build its own, much shorter share of the project — exposes
the reality behind the pledges of an ever closer Russian-Chinese
partnership made when President Vladimir V. Putin met in Beijing last
month with China’s president and Communist Party chief, Xi Jinping.
It was their 15th meeting.
桥梁与河岸之间的缺口是俄罗斯留下的,它负责建造比中方这截短得多
的另外一截,但却没能完成。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V.
Putin)和中国国家主席、中共中央总书记习近平上月在北京会面时,做
出了建立更亲密的中俄伙伴关系的承诺——那是他们的第15次会面。而
这个缺口揭示了该承诺背后的现实。
United by a shared distaste for Western models of democracy, wariness
of American power and eagerness to find new sources of growth,
Russia and China have never been closer, at least at the leadership
level. With each meeting, leaders produce numerous agreements for
joint projects and pledges to support a Russian “pivot to Asia,” an
eastward shift in economic and political focus championed by Mr.
Putin since his relations with the West soured over Ukraine in 2014.
中俄都厌恶西方的民主模式,都对美国的影响力抱有戒心,都急于寻找
新的增长源,这让两国的关系空前密切,至少在领导层面是如此。每次
会面,双方领导人都会就开展合作项目达成大量协议,还会做出支持俄
罗斯版“转向亚洲”战略的约定。自从普京与西方世界的关系在2014年因
乌克兰问题而恶化之后,他就开始倡导经济和政治重心的东移。
The unfinished rail bridge across the Amur River, however, offers a
more realistic picture of the chasm separating what the Russian foreign
minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, recently described as the “truly
inexhaustible potential” of Moscow’s “strategic partnership” with
Beijing and the reality of unfulfilled promises and thwarted hopes.
俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·V·拉夫罗夫(Sergey V. Lavrov)最近曾表示,莫斯
科与北京的“战略伙伴关系”具有的“无尽潜力”。但这种潜力和承诺无法
兑现、希望归于破灭的现实之间存在巨大的鸿沟。横跨阿穆尔河的铁路
大桥的未完工,就是这条鸿沟在现实世界的投影。
Once completed, the bridge would slash the cost of transporting iron
ore mined in Russia to China, cutting the journey to a big Chinese steel
mill to just 145 miles, from 646.
大桥一旦建成,把俄罗斯的铁矿石运往中国的成本就会大幅降低——到
中国一座大型钢厂的路程会从646英里减少至145英里。
The only sign of construction in Nizhneleninskoye on a recent
afternoon was a group of border guards from Russia’s Federal
Security Service, digging with their bare hands and a shovel near a
security fence.
不久前的一个午后,在下列宁斯科耶仅有的施工迹象是:来自俄罗斯联
邦安全局(Federal Security Service)的一群边防人员正手持铁锹,在一片防
护栏附近挖着什么。
Russian officials insist that construction work is about to start and that
the bridge will be ready to carry rail traffic within two years or so — a
decade after the Russian and Chinese governments agreed to proceed
on the project.
俄罗斯官员坚称,施工即将开始,大约两年后,大桥上就能跑火车了
——届时,距离中俄政府同意推进这一项目便有10年时间了。
The gulf between expectation and reality has become a recurring
feature of Russia’s relationship with China. After promises by leaders
to increase trade between the nations to $100 billion by this year and
$200 billion by 2020, for example, two-way trade volume slumped last
year by 28 percent, to just $68 billion. It picked up a few percentage
points in the first few months of this year.
在中俄关系中,经常能看到期望与现实之间的鸿沟。例如,中俄领导人
曾经承诺,让两国之间的贸易额在今年增至1000亿美元,到2020年增至
2000亿美元。但中俄双向贸易额去年大幅下降28%至680亿美元;今年
前几个月只回升了几个百分点。
The sheen has also dulled on a 30-year gas deal estimated to be worth
$400 billion when it was signed during a visit by Mr. Putin to China in
May 2014. A pipeline that Russia needs to build to transport the gas
has stalled.
此外,普京于2014年到访北京期间,中俄双方签下了一项期限为30年的
天然气供应协议,其价值据估计高达4000亿美元。但现在,它的光环变
得黯淡了。俄方得修建一条管道来输送天然气,却迟迟没取得进展。
At a conference in May in Moscow, Chinese speakers complained that
Russia needed to improve its performance. Li Fenglin, a former
Chinese ambassador to Moscow, expressed dismay over the slow pace
of construction on the so-called Power of Siberia gas pipeline and
other projects.
今年5月,中方人员在莫斯科的一个会议上抱怨说,俄方的表现有待改
善。前驻俄大使李凤林对这条名为“西伯利亚力量”的天然气管线以及其
他项目的缓慢进度表达了失望之情。
“Don’t just drag your feet. You should start working energetically,” Mr.
Li said. He added that China and Russia had “a single destiny” but
would get their partnership into gear only if they moved away from
mammoth state-sponsored ventures and shifted toward market-driven
interaction between small and medium-size companies.
“别再拖了,你们应该开始积极工作,” 李凤林说。他还表示,中国和俄
国是“命运共同体”,但要让两国的伙伴关系更上一层楼,就必须让经济
合作逐步从以国有企业大项目为主导,向以市场为主导的大、中、小型
企业并举转变。
There is also frustration on the Russian side, particularly among
businesspeople whose dreams of tapping Chinese markets and pools
of cash have mostly fizzled.
俄罗斯方面也很头疼,尤其是商人,他们梦想着利用中国的市场和资
金,但这些希望大多化为泡影。
“What should be noted from the results of our work of the last year is
that there has been a catastrophically low level of cooperation between
the two countries,” said Viktor F. Vekselberg, a billionaire and the
chairman of the Russian chapter of the Russian-Chinese Chamber for
Commerce in Machinery and High Technology Products, at the
Moscow conference.
“回顾我们去年的工作成果,有一点值得注意:两国之间的合作处于极低
的水平,”在俄罗斯的俄中机电及高科技产品商会(Russian-Chinese
Chamber for Commerce in Machinery and High Technology Products)担任主
席的亿万富豪维克托·F·塞尔伯格(Viktor F. Vekselberg)在莫斯科的会议上
表示。
In the long run, China and Russia have too much of what the other
badly needs — natural resources in Russia and a huge market and
capital in China — not to lift their friendship beyond grand but often
hollow declarations by leaders.
从长远看,中国和俄罗斯都有对方迫切需要的东西——俄罗斯有自然资
源,中国有巨大的市场和大量资金——不能让两国的友谊仅存于两国领
导人宏大而空洞的声明里。
That is certainly the hope of officials and mining executives here in the
Jewish Autonomous Oblast, a resource-rich but cash-poor region in
Russia that has long looked to the Amur River rail bridge as a way to
tap into China’s economic dynamism. If ever completed, it would be
the first year-round link between Russia and China along a stretch of
frontier more than 2,000 miles long.
下列宁斯科耶所在的犹太自治州,是俄罗斯的一个资源丰富、资金贫乏
的地区,一直把阿穆尔河上的铁路大桥视为引入中国经济活力的渠道。
显然,对这里的官员和矿业高管而言,这座大桥是希望所在。如果能完
工,在绵延2000多英里的边境线上,它将成为第一条全年无休地把中俄
两国衔接起来的通道。
Valery A. Samkov, the head of the district government in Leninskoye,
a border area that includes Nizhneleninskoye, said he hoped the bridge
and the business opportunities it would generate would revitalize a
community whose population has shrunk to 18,000 from 30,000 since
the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991.
下列宁斯科耶所属的边境地区列宁斯科耶的政府负责人瓦列里·A·萨姆科
夫(Valery A. Samkov)表示,希望大桥和它即将带来的商业机会能让该地
区恢复活力。自1991年底苏联解体以来,当地的人口已从3万缩减至1.8万。
He said he was optimistic that progress was being made on the Russian
side. After years of visits by “men with ties and nice haircuts,” he
noted, he is now receiving tieless visitors from construction companies
who ask where they can dump their garbage and find water when
work actually starts.
他自称对俄罗斯一方取得的进展持乐观态度。他说,此前多年,来的都
是“系着领带、发型考究的男人”,现在他接待的是不系领带的建筑公司
人员,他们来询问工程真的开工后,垃圾应该倾倒在哪里,水源在哪里。
Why it has taken so long is a study in how Russia, despite the
concentration of immense power in the Kremlin under Mr. Putin, has
carried forward many of the dysfunctions that characterized the chaotic
rule of President Boris N. Yeltsin in the 1990s, an era that Mr. Putin
has vowed to banish. While the cacophony of the Yeltsin-era
democracy has quieted, a thicket of competing bureaucratic, security
and financial interests survives, stalling even strategic projects backed
by the Kremlin.
要想知道为何建造大桥会花费这么长时间,就得弄清楚尽管在普京治下
巨大的权力都集中于克林姆林宫,俄罗斯为何还存在那么多标志着上世
纪90年代鲍里斯·N·叶利钦(Boris N. Yeltsin)总统的混乱统治时期的失调与
障碍,而普京曾发誓驱散那个年代的遗留影响。虽说叶利钦时代嘈杂的
民主之声已经平息,但众多存在竞争的官僚利益、安全利益和金融利益
依然存在,即便是获得克里姆林宫支持的战略性项目也会因之拖延。
Mr. Putin has strengthened and empowered the Russian state and
disciplined it to speak with one voice in public. But its various
agencies rarely move in lock step or swiftly, particularly when large
sums of money are at stake for well-connected insiders.
普京巩固了俄罗斯政府的地位,赋予它更大权力,同时又以严格的纪律
管束,使之对外以同一口径发声。但该国各个机构很少步伐一致,也鲜
有行动迅速的时候,尤其是在人脉深厚的内部人士面对大额资金牵涉其
中的情况下。
Victor Larin, a leading Russian expert on China at the Far East branch
of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Vladivostok, said Russia’s
fumbling of the bridge showed that parts of the country’s elite
remained in the grip of “the China threat syndrome.” He was referring
to a deep-seated wariness in Russia of a neighbor whose population is
nearly 10 times bigger, economy more than five times larger and
military spending twice as large.
俄罗斯数一数二的中国专家、来自俄罗斯科学院(Russian Academy of
Sciences) 位于海参崴的远东研究机构的维克托·拉林(Victor Larin)说,俄
罗斯大桥项目进程缓慢,显示出该国一部分精英依然患有“中国威胁综合
症”。他指的是俄罗斯对其邻国存有的根深蒂固的警惕心理,这个邻国人
口比它多将近10倍,经济规模大五倍多,军费开支则是它的两倍。
All the power that has accrued to Mr. Putin, Mr. Larin added, has left
Russia “under manual control” by the Kremlin, meaning that little gets
done on any issue unless the president intervenes directly and forcefully.
拉林还提到,所有的权力都集中到普京的手中,令俄罗斯处在克里姆林
宫的“人工控制之下”。这意味着,除非总统进行直接而有力的干预,在
任何事上,都少有进展。
So while the Kremlin has endorsed the bridge, others lower in the
Russian government ranks, Mr. Larin said, have stalled, with finance
officials in Moscow complaining about the cost and military officers
asking, “Why build a bridge over which Chinese tanks can come?”
所以尽管克里姆林宫支持大桥项目,但下面的政府官员却使之陷入停
顿,拉林说道。莫斯科的财政官员会抱怨项目开销大,军队官员则质问
“为何要建一座可以让中国坦克开过来的大桥?”
The Kremlin, he said, has a clear vision of where it wants relations
with China to go, but “the lower you go, the worse it gets.” Much of
Russia’s elite “has not made the turn psychologically” to viewing
China as a reliable partner rather than a potential enemy.
拉林称,克里姆林宫明确表示过它希望与中国发展什么样的关系,但“越
往下层走,情况越糟”。俄罗斯的精英阶层有许多人“没有在心理上转过
这个弯”,他们不把中国视为可靠的伙伴,而是看作潜在的敌人。
Though initially conceived as a private project, the Amur River bridge
quickly evolved into a venture funded and carried out by the Russian
and Chinese governments. The arrangement, said Valery Gurevich, a
former vice governor of the Jewish autonomous region, allowed China
to take the lead.
阿穆尔河大桥最初是作为一个私人项目提出,但它很快演变成有风险投
资、由俄罗斯和中国政府实施的项目。当地的犹太自治州前任州长瓦列
里·古列维奇(Valery Gurevich)表示,这样的安排使中国占据了领先地位。
“Over there, one party decides everything,” he said. “This makes
things much easier.”
“在那里,一党决定一切,”他说。“办事容易得多。”
Even the seemingly simple issue of where the bridge’s pillars would
stand, Mr. Gurevich recalled, stirred a hornet’s nest of arguments
between three state landowners in Nizhneleninskoye — the Federal
Security Service, the state forestry fund and municipal authorities.
古列维奇回忆,即便是表面看来比较简单的议题,比如桥柱子的位置也
会引发下列宁斯科耶地区三个国有土地所有者的混乱争执。这三方分别
是俄罗斯联邦安全局(Federal Security Service)、国家林业基金会和市政当局。
“At times, you just wanted to hang yourself,” he said.
Tougher still was the question of who, on Russia’s side, would get
construction contracts potentially worth hundreds of millions of
dollars. The Chinese decided years ago to entrust the construction of
their portion of the bridge to a state-owned engineering company,
which quickly got to work and, according to Chinese state television,
finished the job two years ago.
“有时候,搞得人真想去上吊,”他说。不过,更难解决的问题是,俄罗
斯一方由谁签署价值有可能达到数亿美元的建筑合同。据中国官方电视
台报道,中国在多年前就已将该国负责的那部分大桥修建工程委托给一
家国有工程公司,后者很快开工,在两年前完成了这项工程。
But in Russia, where state-funded projects invariably go far over
budget and yield expansive opportunities for theft, it took until June to
choose among different construction companies, each with powerful
backers in Moscow. The winner was SK Most Group, a
well-connected private Russian company known for its role in
building a bridge in Vladivostok that ended up costing the state more
than $1 billion.
但在俄罗斯,国家资助的项目不可避免地大大超出预算,产生无数窃取
资金的机会。直到6月,俄方才在不同的建筑公司中选定中标企业,这
些公司每家都在莫斯科有力量强大的支持者。胜出者SK Most Group是一
家人脉甚广的私人企业,因在海参崴修建一座大桥最终花费俄罗斯政府
10亿多美元资金而为人所知。
The recent arrival in Nizhneleninskoye of heavy construction
equipment has raised hopes that the bridge to China might finally be
finished. The regional government, in response to written questions,
said the delays were because “this project is unique with no analog in
world practice and required the solving of a long list of questions.”
The government said the Russian portion would cost 9 billion rubles
(around $140 million) and would be finished by June 2018.
一批重型建筑设备最近抵达下列宁斯科耶,带来了通往中国的大桥最终
完工的希望。作为对时报提出的书面问题的回应,地方政府表示,工程
延期是因为“这个项目是独一无二的,在世界上没有类似的实践,需要解
决一长串问题。”该政府还表示,俄罗斯负责修建的部分费用将达到90
亿卢布(约合9.5亿人民币),将于2018年6月完工。
Chinese criticism has stung Russian pride. In a recent interview with a
local television station, Dmitri Astafyev, the head of Rubicon, a
statecontrolled
company supervising the project, urged China to curb its criticism.
中国的批评刺痛了俄罗斯人的自尊。在最近接受当地电视台采访时,由
国家控股的负责监督该项目的Rubicon公司负责人德米特里·阿斯塔菲耶
夫(Dmitri Astafyev)敦促中国遏制其批评言论。
“We’re being criticized because our partners in China have built two
kilometers already while we’re not able to build as little as 309
meters,” Mr. Astafyev said.
“我们之所以被批评,是因为我们在中国的合作伙伴已经修建了两公里,
而我们还没能修完区区309米,”阿斯塔菲耶夫说。
“While the Chinese are, of course, talented, they have, for starters,
built the easy part,” he said. “But the key point is the following: They
say they’ve built the bridge. Good. But it’s not suitable for traffic.”
“当然,中国人是很能干,但首先来说,他们修建的是比较容易的部
分,”他说。“而且关键点在于:他们说自己建成了大桥。很好。但它不
适合通车。”
Copyright © 2016 The New York Times Company. All rights reserved.
Oleg Matsnev自莫斯科对本文有报道贡献。
翻译:纽约时报中文网
Copyright © 2016 The New York Times Company. All rights reserved.
D*****i
发帖数: 2068
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集权专制贪污腐败是俄罗斯帝国的一贯优秀传统,农奴制的好传承。
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