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发帖数: 734 | 1 Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5&
#8201;°C and 2.0 °C warming
The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the
global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in
future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely
populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming.
For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM
runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The
annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million
inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5&#
8201;°C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming
, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved
adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If
all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional
warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9
thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11283-w |
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