r*s
发帖数: 2555 | 1 According to the blog fivethirtyeight, operated by statistician Nate Silver,
Tech has a 1 percent chance of making it into the four-team field for the
College Football Playoff.
The assessment was based on 10,000 simulations of the weekend’s games. No.
11 Tech is given a 36 percent chance of winning. The Jackets would need help
after that. In one possible scenario, Tech might have a chance if No. 1
Alabama beat No. 16 Missouri in the SEC title game,
No. 2 Oregon beat No. 7 Arizona,
No. 3 TCU beats Iowa State,
No. 5 Ohio State loses to No. 13 Wisconsin and
No. 9 Kansas State beats No. 6 Baylor.
The win probability website atomicfootball.com gives all six results falling
in this pattern a 3 percent chance of probability.
In this case, the nos. 4, 5, 6 and 7 teams will have lost. No. 8 Michigan
State and No. 10 Mississippi State are idle, not having qualified for their
conference title games. Tech could leapfrog the Spartans and Bulldogs on the
strength of beating the No. 4 team in the country for the ACC championship.
Then, Tech would have to be judged against Florida State (12-1 in this
scenario), Ohio State (11-2), Baylor (10-2), Arizona (10-3) and Kansas State
(10-2), all of whom except for Kansas State will have just lost and none of
whom could claim a conference championship, again except for Kansas State. | l*****y
发帖数: 4887 | 2 以前有计算机评分，还可以做simulation
现在委员会关门讨论，
说你行你就行
说你不行你就不行
你看FSU赢球都不管用
所以根本没法simulation
也没法算多少%的机会 | s****h
发帖数: 3979 | 3 感觉就是独立事件算概率，怎么需要用simulation? | d****n
发帖数: 10034 | 4 蒙特卡洛模拟
【在 s****h 的大作中提到】
: 感觉就是独立事件算概率，怎么需要用simulation?
| b***c
发帖数: 1460 | 5 这个基本是扯淡，忽悠商科还行，体育比赛就算了吧
【在 d****n 的大作中提到】
: 蒙特卡洛模拟
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