q****6
发帖数: 837 | 1 今天问了儿科医生, 没想到还真有答案. 她本人很自信这个算法.
儿子: 妈妈身高加5英寸, 再和爸爸身高平均.是你儿子将来身高. 误差在5英寸之内.
女儿: 爸爸身高减5英寸, 再和妈妈身高平均. 是你女儿将来身高.误差在5英寸之内
(当然5英寸是个大误差)
这身高在18-20岁定型. 现在6,7 岁的 percentile is quite indicative of future
percentile. Especially if the current percentile match the percentile you
got from number based on formula.
Exception 1: For early puberty kid (they are taller now but shorter later)
You can look for indication based on if parents had early puberty when they
grew up to look for signs for kids.
Exception 2: If kids percentile today is much higher than future percentile
based on calculated number from formula, then today's percentile is more
indicative than the formula number (assume no early puberty). |
I*****e
发帖数: 7085 | 2 5inch error is huge
they
【在 q****6 的大作中提到】
: 今天问了儿科医生, 没想到还真有答案. 她本人很自信这个算法.
: 儿子: 妈妈身高加5英寸, 再和爸爸身高平均.是你儿子将来身高. 误差在5英寸之内.
: 女儿: 爸爸身高减5英寸, 再和妈妈身高平均. 是你女儿将来身高.误差在5英寸之内
: (当然5英寸是个大误差)
: 这身高在18-20岁定型. 现在6,7 岁的 percentile is quite indicative of future
: percentile. Especially if the current percentile match the percentile you
: got from number based on formula.
: Exception 1: For early puberty kid (they are taller now but shorter later)
: You can look for indication based on if parents had early puberty when they
: grew up to look for signs for kids.
|
w********t
发帖数: 18315 | 3 误差5 inch？
1米7可以到182了，恩，这公式是正确的
they
【在 q****6 的大作中提到】
: 今天问了儿科医生, 没想到还真有答案. 她本人很自信这个算法.
: 儿子: 妈妈身高加5英寸, 再和爸爸身高平均.是你儿子将来身高. 误差在5英寸之内.
: 女儿: 爸爸身高减5英寸, 再和妈妈身高平均. 是你女儿将来身高.误差在5英寸之内
: (当然5英寸是个大误差)
: 这身高在18-20岁定型. 现在6,7 岁的 percentile is quite indicative of future
: percentile. Especially if the current percentile match the percentile you
: got from number based on formula.
: Exception 1: For early puberty kid (they are taller now but shorter later)
: You can look for indication based on if parents had early puberty when they
: grew up to look for signs for kids.
|
G***a
发帖数: 27294 | 4 。。。。在我身上误差8英寸。。。。8英寸20cm多了。。。
还不如说，预测地球人大多数都在１５０和２米之间呢。。。
完全没误差。。
they
【在 q****6 的大作中提到】
: 今天问了儿科医生, 没想到还真有答案. 她本人很自信这个算法.
: 儿子: 妈妈身高加5英寸, 再和爸爸身高平均.是你儿子将来身高. 误差在5英寸之内.
: 女儿: 爸爸身高减5英寸, 再和妈妈身高平均. 是你女儿将来身高.误差在5英寸之内
: (当然5英寸是个大误差)
: 这身高在18-20岁定型. 现在6,7 岁的 percentile is quite indicative of future
: percentile. Especially if the current percentile match the percentile you
: got from number based on formula.
: Exception 1: For early puberty kid (they are taller now but shorter later)
: You can look for indication based on if parents had early puberty when they
: grew up to look for signs for kids.
|
d******i
发帖数: 448 | 5 我的妈，误差5英寸也就是12.7cm的范围内，还好意思说。这个儿医是个忽悠啊。
they
【在 q****6 的大作中提到】
: 今天问了儿科医生, 没想到还真有答案. 她本人很自信这个算法.
: 儿子: 妈妈身高加5英寸, 再和爸爸身高平均.是你儿子将来身高. 误差在5英寸之内.
: 女儿: 爸爸身高减5英寸, 再和妈妈身高平均. 是你女儿将来身高.误差在5英寸之内
: (当然5英寸是个大误差)
: 这身高在18-20岁定型. 现在6,7 岁的 percentile is quite indicative of future
: percentile. Especially if the current percentile match the percentile you
: got from number based on formula.
: Exception 1: For early puberty kid (they are taller now but shorter later)
: You can look for indication based on if parents had early puberty when they
: grew up to look for signs for kids.
|
w********t
发帖数: 18315 | 6 我猜楼主没听清楚
【在 d******i 的大作中提到】
: 我的妈，误差5英寸也就是12.7cm的范围内，还好意思说。这个儿医是个忽悠啊。
:
: they
|
e**p
发帖数: 4259 | 7 5英寸应该是标准差（standard dev）,不是standar error吧？
爸妈的身高是孩子身高的决定因素之一，其他影响因素还有很多，比如说营养，锻炼，
环境毒物等，所以5英寸的标准差还是很合理的。 |
B******1
发帖数: 9094 | 8 I trust LZ's English level . . . |
d***a
发帖数: 13752 | 9 Should give some probability distribution function...
they
【在 q****6 的大作中提到】
: 今天问了儿科医生, 没想到还真有答案. 她本人很自信这个算法.
: 儿子: 妈妈身高加5英寸, 再和爸爸身高平均.是你儿子将来身高. 误差在5英寸之内.
: 女儿: 爸爸身高减5英寸, 再和妈妈身高平均. 是你女儿将来身高.误差在5英寸之内
: (当然5英寸是个大误差)
: 这身高在18-20岁定型. 现在6,7 岁的 percentile is quite indicative of future
: percentile. Especially if the current percentile match the percentile you
: got from number based on formula.
: Exception 1: For early puberty kid (they are taller now but shorter later)
: You can look for indication based on if parents had early puberty when they
: grew up to look for signs for kids.
|
q****6
发帖数: 837 | 10 I asked her how accurate is the formula, she said pretty accurate. Then I
asked her "no error?", she said within 5 inches, she did also say 5 inch is
a big variance. My take is it's a bell curve type of thing with the middle
being the calculated number, so you have high probability of end up having
that calculated height and low probability of getting a height of that
number plus or minus 5 inch. Of course I don't know if 5 inches means 3
sigma or not. Maybe I should have asked her the source of it but a baby next
door was crying hard so that ended our visit. I have not yet run Jeremy Lin
's height calculation yet.
I'm just sharing the info with other parents that are keen on their kids
sports future like me. Hope to trigger more quality input which can
eventually lead us to a better source or a more solid theory.
I do believe in what she said about early puberty affects your final height
negatively. I have seen enough examples of that. I was happy and told him
that my son didn't lose teeth yet so maybe he doesn't have early puberty,
then she said teeth is a totally different topic and no indication. |
|
|
q****6
发帖数: 837 | 11 Also the Ped said for example if a kid is within 10 percentile now, but the
formula indicates the kid should have an average height at 20 years old,
then the kid is allowed to get growth hormone. Then she said since my son is
not in that case, no need to discuss further on that. -- So from there you
can see a doctor does use the formula to make judgement calls on medication.
I think that is also why she gave me the answer so quickly and sounded so
confident about it. There is something to it, at least. |
q****6
发帖数: 837 | 12 I also suggest other parents who is reading this to ask the same question to
your kid's ped if you have a visit coming up soon. Our family doesn't have
anything scheduled in new future, unless the kids get sick unexpectedly, of
course hope not! |
d***a
发帖数: 13752 | 13 That's very good information about how peds work. Thanks for sharing. Don't
take "probability function" seriously; there is no truly such thing for
human scenarios. :-)
the
is
you
medication.
【在 q****6 的大作中提到】
: Also the Ped said for example if a kid is within 10 percentile now, but the
: formula indicates the kid should have an average height at 20 years old,
: then the kid is allowed to get growth hormone. Then she said since my son is
: not in that case, no need to discuss further on that. -- So from there you
: can see a doctor does use the formula to make judgement calls on medication.
: I think that is also why she gave me the answer so quickly and sounded so
: confident about it. There is something to it, at least.
|
w********t
发帖数: 18315 | 14 这不是相信不相信你的问题，也不是相信你儿医的问题
而是这种公式，说了等于没说，毫无价值
比如你想知道你儿子大概会长多高
人家回答你可能高在170-182之间，这样的答案你满足吗？
is
next
Lin
【在 q****6 的大作中提到】
: I asked her how accurate is the formula, she said pretty accurate. Then I
: asked her "no error?", she said within 5 inches, she did also say 5 inch is
: a big variance. My take is it's a bell curve type of thing with the middle
: being the calculated number, so you have high probability of end up having
: that calculated height and low probability of getting a height of that
: number plus or minus 5 inch. Of course I don't know if 5 inches means 3
: sigma or not. Maybe I should have asked her the source of it but a baby next
: door was crying hard so that ended our visit. I have not yet run Jeremy Lin
: 's height calculation yet.
: I'm just sharing the info with other parents that are keen on their kids
|
r*f
发帖数: 39119 | 15 哈哈哈
【在 w********t 的大作中提到】
: 这不是相信不相信你的问题，也不是相信你儿医的问题
: 而是这种公式，说了等于没说，毫无价值
: 比如你想知道你儿子大概会长多高
: 人家回答你可能高在170-182之间，这样的答案你满足吗？
:
: is
: next
: Lin
|
F*********Y
发帖数: 714 | |
c****b
发帖数: 3362 | 17 应该是10英寸的范围吧。上下误差5英寸。
【在 d******i 的大作中提到】
: 我的妈，误差5英寸也就是12.7cm的范围内，还好意思说。这个儿医是个忽悠啊。
:
: they
|
c****b
发帖数: 3362 | 18 你说小了，算出来170，加上误差，所以可能是158-182。
无论如何LZ的信息应该是准确的。
【在 w********t 的大作中提到】
: 这不是相信不相信你的问题，也不是相信你儿医的问题
: 而是这种公式，说了等于没说，毫无价值
: 比如你想知道你儿子大概会长多高
: 人家回答你可能高在170-182之间，这样的答案你满足吗？
:
: is
: next
: Lin
|
w********t
发帖数: 18315 | 19 我错了，我英语不好
【在 c****b 的大作中提到】
: 你说小了，算出来170，加上误差，所以可能是158-182。
: 无论如何LZ的信息应该是准确的。
|
az
发帖数: 16686 | 20 我估计人家医生的意思就是没公式啊
【在 d******i 的大作中提到】
: 我的妈，误差5英寸也就是12.7cm的范围内，还好意思说。这个儿医是个忽悠啊。
:
: they
|
|
|
c****b
发帖数: 3362 | 21 我都没看英文，只是觉得误差5英寸是上下各5英寸.
【在 w********t 的大作中提到】
: 我错了，我英语不好
|
y******5
发帖数: 3836 | |
f**********g
发帖数: 4709 | 23 嗯，应该是个比较靠谱的预测
因为只有爸妈身高两个参数，导致预测结果误差非常之大。不知道你这个5英寸是
standard deviation 还是95% confidence interval
Anyway, 都没有任何现实指导意义
they
【在 q****6 的大作中提到】
: 今天问了儿科医生, 没想到还真有答案. 她本人很自信这个算法.
: 儿子: 妈妈身高加5英寸, 再和爸爸身高平均.是你儿子将来身高. 误差在5英寸之内.
: 女儿: 爸爸身高减5英寸, 再和妈妈身高平均. 是你女儿将来身高.误差在5英寸之内
: (当然5英寸是个大误差)
: 这身高在18-20岁定型. 现在6,7 岁的 percentile is quite indicative of future
: percentile. Especially if the current percentile match the percentile you
: got from number based on formula.
: Exception 1: For early puberty kid (they are taller now but shorter later)
: You can look for indication based on if parents had early puberty when they
: grew up to look for signs for kids.
|
J*******2
发帖数: 2457 | 24 haha
【在 w********t 的大作中提到】
: 这不是相信不相信你的问题，也不是相信你儿医的问题
: 而是这种公式，说了等于没说，毫无价值
: 比如你想知道你儿子大概会长多高
: 人家回答你可能高在170-182之间，这样的答案你满足吗？
:
: is
: next
: Lin
|
