t******h
发帖数: 519 | 1 http://www.apsanet.org/content_35328.cfm
IT IS WONDERFUL!
October 17, 2006: Political Scientists' Models Predict Democratic Takeover
of House of Representatives
APSA Press Release
For Immediate Release
Contact: Bahram Rajaee
202-483-2512
Political Scientists' Models Predict Democratic Takeover of House of
Representatives
In forecasts made as long as six months ago, scholars predict likely
Democratic gain of 22-29 seats in the House, and 2-3 seats in the Senate.
Washington, DC--Election forec | s******1
发帖数: 239 | 2 Weather forecast is also complicated, and natural scientists would not be
surprised to predict it with high accuracy all the time. The question is: to
what extent should Pser take natural science as the model? What other
things can PSer predict other than voting behaviors in American Politics
subfield? Or can PSer predict at all?As an overall trend, political science
can describe, can explain, but it is almost impossible to predict?
Politics is sure to be more complicated than clock, maybe to so
【在 t******h 的大作中提到】
: http://www.apsanet.org/content_35328.cfm
: IT IS WONDERFUL!
: October 17, 2006: Political Scientists' Models Predict Democratic Takeover
: of House of Representatives
: APSA Press Release
:
: For Immediate Release
: Contact: Bahram Rajaee
: 202-483-2512
: Political Scientists' Models Predict Democratic Takeover of House of
| t******h
发帖数: 519 | 3 well said. but is political world really "more than what the "cloud" can
match"? is political world really more complicated than "physical world" or
just we have not found the way into it? Related question is: why should we
expect PSer to do more than what natural scientists are doing? PSer is just
researcher. It is Ok for them just to do research, though somebody can still
do more. | w***t
发帖数: 404 | 4 他们这几个的预测好像没特别的地方，首先senate就错了。看这些模型还不如直接看民
调，更准确。
to
science
it
【在 s******1 的大作中提到】
: Weather forecast is also complicated, and natural scientists would not be
: surprised to predict it with high accuracy all the time. The question is: to
: what extent should Pser take natural science as the model? What other
: things can PSer predict other than voting behaviors in American Politics
: subfield? Or can PSer predict at all?As an overall trend, political science
: can describe, can explain, but it is almost impossible to predict?
: Politics is sure to be more complicated than clock, maybe to so
|
|
