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http://online.wsj.com/articles/political-diary-california-gop-e
California GOP Eyes Bay Area Seat
By ALLYSIA FINLEY
Oct. 6, 2014 3:28 p.m. ET
Democrats currently hold every legislative seat in the California’s Bay
Area. But a voter revolt against public unions could give Republicans an
outpost in the East Bay.
A recent poll in the 16th Assembly district commissioned by the California
Chamber of Commerce’s JobsPAC shows Republican Catharine Baker, an attorney
from Pleasanton, running even with the Democratic mayor of Dublin, Tim
Sbranti. Democrats enjoy an eight-point voter registration advantage in the
predominantly white, affluent suburban district.
Ms. Baker has benefitted from a knock-out primary fight between Mr. Sbranti
and Gov. Jerry Brown’s former adviser Steve Glazer. While the two Democrats
spent millions beating each other up, Ms. Baker cruised to first place in
the top-two primary with 36.7% of the vote. Keep in mind that legislative
campaigns rarely cost more than a few hundred thousand dollars.
Catharine Baker ENLARGE
Catharine Baker BAKERFORASSEMBLY2014
A self-styled pro-business Democrat, Mr. Glazer flogged his opponent’s
union friends. (Mr. Sbranti used to head the California Teachers Association
’s Political Involvement Committee.) Labor groups hit back by portraying Mr
. Glazer as a corporate lobbyist. Their primary beef was that a couple years
ago he worked as a hired gun for the state’s Chamber of Commerce, which
had sought to topple two pro-labor Democratic incumbents.
Mr. Sbranti edged out Mr. Glazer for second place with 29% of the vote. Yet
the Chamber poll shows that about a quarter of Democrats still aren’t sold
on him, and independents favor Ms. Baker by two points. His coziness with
the public unions may be to blame.
The liberal editorial page of the San Francisco Chronicle endorsed Ms. Baker
for her “centrist sensibilities” and support for the Vergara court ruling
in June striking down the state’s teacher tenure and seniority laws. By
contrast, the Chronicle wrote, Mr. Sbranti is “a traditional Democrat—
especially when it comes to toeing the party line in resistance to education
reforms that intrude on the unions’ comfort zone.”
The Chronicle also criticized Mr. Sbranti’s refusal to endorse a ban on
strikes by the Bay Area mass transit workers. A strike last year by the Bay
Area Rapid Transit (BART) workers, who earn on average $76,500 per year,
effectively shut down the Bay Area. By using the Vergara case and BART
strike as wedge issues, Ms. Baker could run away with the race.
Republicans need to pick up one seat in the Senate or two in the Assembly to
deny Democrats a supermajority. The GOP’s top targets are in Southern
California and the Central Valley, which traditionally provide the most
fertile ground for conservative candidates. But Republicans may be able to
expand the playing field by capitalizing on voters’ animus toward out-of-
control government unions. |
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