b****n
发帖数: 1179 | 1 我很赞同里面的2个观点。
1。利率跟房价关系不大。
2。房价在高通胀下必定猛涨。看看1980年左右的房价就知道了。
John Paulson（约翰·保尔森），这位2006 年名不见经传，现在已经人人熟知的对冲
基金经理，夸张地说，从房地产信贷危机爆发至今，如果全世界都输了，而他就是那个
最大的赢家。华尔街日报记者 Gregory Zuckerman 刚出了一本书"The GreatestTrade
Ever"，书中近距离揭示John Paulson 危机前的操作手法和心路历程，可以让我们从另
一个角度（即如何最大限度获取利润）了解危机。
除了对这本书和里面内容的介绍，本期“精译”还会关注John Paulson 最近的两大赌
注，包括最引人瞩目的黄金投资和最受争议的花旗股票。
不过，“精译”也注意到，对John Paulson 的评论是他进行了“最伟大的交易”，而
非“最伟大的投资”，两者有怎样的区别呢？会不会前者在需要关键时刻“稳、准、狠
”，而后者则需要耐得住寂寞，守得住信仰？无论如何，但凡称得上个“最”字，都有
其偶然与必然吧。
1994 年，John Paulson 成立了自己 |
a******t
发帖数: 99 | |
k*****a
发帖数: 1463 | 3 Unfortunately, you are not in line with John Paulson. His major position has
not been in real estate (neither your story seem to infer). Mid-2009, he made a bet on gold, later 2009 to now, his bet is shorting U.S. bond and buying some banks shares.
There is major difference today vs 1980s. Today's housing market is
artificially supported by low mortgage rates through these non-exist before
agencies. These agencies are culprits of making lofty house prices by
lending to these people cann't afford
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: 我很赞同里面的2个观点。
: 1。利率跟房价关系不大。
: 2。房价在高通胀下必定猛涨。看看1980年左右的房价就知道了。
: John Paulson（约翰·保尔森），这位2006 年名不见经传，现在已经人人熟知的对冲
: 基金经理，夸张地说，从房地产信贷危机爆发至今，如果全世界都输了，而他就是那个
: 最大的赢家。华尔街日报记者 Gregory Zuckerman 刚出了一本书"The GreatestTrade
: Ever"，书中近距离揭示John Paulson 危机前的操作手法和心路历程，可以让我们从另
: 一个角度（即如何最大限度获取利润）了解危机。
: 除了对这本书和里面内容的介绍，本期“精译”还会关注John Paulson 最近的两大赌
: 注，包括最引人瞩目的黄金投资和最受争议的花旗股票。
|
j********l
发帖数: 551 | 4 Paulson is indeed making bets on real estate's upside now. But this time, he
is w/o Pellegrini.
http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/05/john-paulson-starting-real-estate.html
has
now
before
.
years to unwind, and get rid of these non-deserving "owners".
Government's as of today is getting credit rating below coorperate.
Artifical supporting the housing market is draining government, and has been
withdrawn last week, and coming end of month. The yield shot up 0.25 last
week in a high unemployment env
【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】
: Unfortunately, you are not in line with John Paulson. His major position has
: not been in real estate (neither your story seem to infer). Mid-2009, he made a bet on gold, later 2009 to now, his bet is shorting U.S. bond and buying some banks shares.
: There is major difference today vs 1980s. Today's housing market is
: artificially supported by low mortgage rates through these non-exist before
: agencies. These agencies are culprits of making lofty house prices by
: lending to these people cann't afford
|
k*****a
发帖数: 1463 | 5 He was starting a distressed RE fund (well, I also think there are distressed gems out there and worth flipping in an ever declining market. Even fund like UNG makes money, why not him. Just don't understand why people are still willing to pay for a premium.)
Here was his biggest bets (BTW, he shorted lots of dollar, does not look
very smart today. Besides that, it does not warrant that anyone should follow him after he took position already. He might just be able to dump it with a publisized po
【在 j********l 的大作中提到】
: Paulson is indeed making bets on real estate's upside now. But this time, he
: is w/o Pellegrini.
: http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/05/john-paulson-starting-real-estate.html
:
: has
: now
: before
: .
: years to unwind, and get rid of these non-deserving "owners".
: Government's as of today is getting credit rating below coorperate.
|
w****j
发帖数: 6262 | 6 中国房市的投机市场能搞这么大，很大程度也是中国的金融衍生产品不够开放，从而没
有人能从房价下
跌中获利。你看空房市，就只能不跳进去，在旁边看着它疯狂，却没有办法从中赚钱。
GreatestTrade
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: 我很赞同里面的2个观点。
: 1。利率跟房价关系不大。
: 2。房价在高通胀下必定猛涨。看看1980年左右的房价就知道了。
: John Paulson（约翰·保尔森），这位2006 年名不见经传，现在已经人人熟知的对冲
: 基金经理，夸张地说，从房地产信贷危机爆发至今，如果全世界都输了，而他就是那个
: 最大的赢家。华尔街日报记者 Gregory Zuckerman 刚出了一本书"The GreatestTrade
: Ever"，书中近距离揭示John Paulson 危机前的操作手法和心路历程，可以让我们从另
: 一个角度（即如何最大限度获取利润）了解危机。
: 除了对这本书和里面内容的介绍，本期“精译”还会关注John Paulson 最近的两大赌
: 注，包括最引人瞩目的黄金投资和最受争议的花旗股票。
|
l****o
发帖数: 2909 | 7 胡扯鸡巴蛋。老子的phd差点就做了cdo。cdo根本就不是那时候出来的。 |
f******x
发帖数: 2260 | 8 This is a shxx load of gold
distressed gems out there and worth flipping in an ever declining market.
Even fund like UNG makes money, why not him. Just don't understand why
people are still willing to pay for a premium.)
follow him after he took position already. He might just be able to dump it
with a publisized portfolio):
【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】
: He was starting a distressed RE fund (well, I also think there are distressed gems out there and worth flipping in an ever declining market. Even fund like UNG makes money, why not him. Just don't understand why people are still willing to pay for a premium.)
: Here was his biggest bets (BTW, he shorted lots of dollar, does not look
: very smart today. Besides that, it does not warrant that anyone should follow him after he took position already. He might just be able to dump it with a publisized po
|
b****n
发帖数: 1179 | 9 我现在更关心的是savings/loans stocks的表现。现在制造业的股票很多都已经很贵了
。而银行股很多从06年一路跌下来，现在price/book都在40%甚至更低。除了Wells
Fargo等大银行以外。买这种股票都等于是买一个blind pool，关键还是看整体房市的
表现是否理想。你觉得如何能从房市判断这些S/L stock是否已经见底呢?
has
made a bet on gold, later 2009 to now, his bet is shorting U.S. bond and
buying some banks shares.
before
.
years to unwind, and get rid of these non-deserving "owners".
government is getting credit rating below coorperates. Artifical supporting
the housing market is draining government, and has been withdrawn las
【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】
: Unfortunately, you are not in line with John Paulson. His major position has
: not been in real estate (neither your story seem to infer). Mid-2009, he made a bet on gold, later 2009 to now, his bet is shorting U.S. bond and buying some banks shares.
: There is major difference today vs 1980s. Today's housing market is
: artificially supported by low mortgage rates through these non-exist before
: agencies. These agencies are culprits of making lofty house prices by
: lending to these people cann't afford
|
H**********k
发帖数: 2158 | 10 有人感兴趣研究如何从未来世界各地的房地产市场崩盘中获利么？
http://www.unknownspace.org/club_bbsdoc/HousingBears.html
有没有感兴趣的同道成立一个公司先作学术和市场上的研究，等到
天朝房地产崩盘之时按照既定方针捞一把？我想John Paulson的成
功至少可以一定程度上复制。
GreatestTrade
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: 我很赞同里面的2个观点。
: 1。利率跟房价关系不大。
: 2。房价在高通胀下必定猛涨。看看1980年左右的房价就知道了。
: John Paulson（约翰·保尔森），这位2006 年名不见经传，现在已经人人熟知的对冲
: 基金经理，夸张地说，从房地产信贷危机爆发至今，如果全世界都输了，而他就是那个
: 最大的赢家。华尔街日报记者 Gregory Zuckerman 刚出了一本书"The GreatestTrade
: Ever"，书中近距离揭示John Paulson 危机前的操作手法和心路历程，可以让我们从另
: 一个角度（即如何最大限度获取利润）了解危机。
: 除了对这本书和里面内容的介绍，本期“精译”还会关注John Paulson 最近的两大赌
: 注，包括最引人瞩目的黄金投资和最受争议的花旗股票。
|
|
|
b****n
发帖数: 1179 | 11 美国已经崩完了。现在要从房地产复苏中获利了。中国不能做空，所以不好复制。
【在 H**********k 的大作中提到】
: 有人感兴趣研究如何从未来世界各地的房地产市场崩盘中获利么？
: http://www.unknownspace.org/club_bbsdoc/HousingBears.html
: 有没有感兴趣的同道成立一个公司先作学术和市场上的研究，等到
: 天朝房地产崩盘之时按照既定方针捞一把？我想John Paulson的成
: 功至少可以一定程度上复制。
:
: GreatestTrade
|
H**********k
发帖数: 2158 | 12 美国的居民地产也许崩得差不多了，
但是Commercial RE还远未到底。
中国不能做空，复制起来难度可能
高一些。
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: 美国已经崩完了。现在要从房地产复苏中获利了。中国不能做空，所以不好复制。
|
b****n
发帖数: 1179 | 13 感觉居民地产确实从去年3月开始就一直在筑底。为啥Commercial RE还没有到底呢？
Commercial RE跟居民地产有什么区别，决定了它还要跌？
【在 H**********k 的大作中提到】
: 美国的居民地产也许崩得差不多了，
: 但是Commercial RE还远未到底。
: 中国不能做空，复制起来难度可能
: 高一些。
|
f*******h
发帖数: 721 | 14 Buffett has become bullish about us real estate also. |
k*****a
发帖数: 1463 | 15 The bond market is always smarter than stock.
The banks were enjoying the best time because of the artificially low
interest rate bank can borrow from FED. Then they put the same money back to FED
via government bond, it is federal reserve's free money giveaway. All tax
payer is paying into the banking system. Therefore banks are on the winning
side of table for sure.
The scale of the FED support of housing is astronomical. The way to do is
also simply purchasing MBS. There is 100 houses for sal
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: 我现在更关心的是savings/loans stocks的表现。现在制造业的股票很多都已经很贵了
: 。而银行股很多从06年一路跌下来，现在price/book都在40%甚至更低。除了Wells
: Fargo等大银行以外。买这种股票都等于是买一个blind pool，关键还是看整体房市的
: 表现是否理想。你觉得如何能从房市判断这些S/L stock是否已经见底呢?
:
: has
: made a bet on gold, later 2009 to now, his bet is shorting U.S. bond and
: buying some banks shares.
: before
: .
|
b****n
发帖数: 1179 | 16 多谢分析。现在还在筑底的是不是也就只有银行股了？09年最后一个季度，很多银行的
Non-performing loan都暴涨，而最近这段时间，那个季度的报表刚出，所以股价还在
受到打压。我看别的股，好点的没怎么受到经济危机影响的公司早都已经涨的很厉害了
。银行股里面也就只有些很小的银行还比较低，大银行像wells fargo, chase, citi也
都挺高了。
另外像gold stock，有什么建议的没？我只做stock不买fund，所以要想从黄金上涨来
受益就只能买gold stock。
to FED
winning
$5
【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】
: The bond market is always smarter than stock.
: The banks were enjoying the best time because of the artificially low
: interest rate bank can borrow from FED. Then they put the same money back to FED
: via government bond, it is federal reserve's free money giveaway. All tax
: payer is paying into the banking system. Therefore banks are on the winning
: side of table for sure.
: The scale of the FED support of housing is astronomical. The way to do is
: also simply purchasing MBS. There is 100 houses for sal
|
B*******t
发帖数: 135 | 17 从今天的新闻来看，这里面讲的除了说CDO是为这个deal量身打造这一点不符合事实（
估计写或者翻译这个的人自己没搞清楚）之外，故事的主要情节很有可能是真的。。。
。。。
GreatestTrade
【在 b****n 的大作中提到】
: 我很赞同里面的2个观点。
: 1。利率跟房价关系不大。
: 2。房价在高通胀下必定猛涨。看看1980年左右的房价就知道了。
: John Paulson（约翰·保尔森），这位2006 年名不见经传，现在已经人人熟知的对冲
: 基金经理，夸张地说，从房地产信贷危机爆发至今，如果全世界都输了，而他就是那个
: 最大的赢家。华尔街日报记者 Gregory Zuckerman 刚出了一本书"The GreatestTrade
: Ever"，书中近距离揭示John Paulson 危机前的操作手法和心路历程，可以让我们从另
: 一个角度（即如何最大限度获取利润）了解危机。
: 除了对这本书和里面内容的介绍，本期“精译”还会关注John Paulson 最近的两大赌
: 注，包括最引人瞩目的黄金投资和最受争议的花旗股票。
|
