G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 1 发信人: GoodLuck888 (GoodLuck), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: strong buy UNG Jan 22 '11 $5 Call
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 30 10:46:52 2010, 美东)
Thu Sep 30 10:43:52 2010 Buy 30 UNG Jan 22 '11 $5 Call Executed @ $1.28 | b********t
发帖数: 8181 | 2 不算便宜，SD $3的callpremium 只有几分钱。 | G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 3 发信人: GoodLuck888 (GoodLuck), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Re: strong buy UNG Jan 22 '11 $5 Call-- Bought SCO
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct 15 16:02:19 2010, 美东)
added more | l******n
发帖数: 9344 | 4 I am losing quite a lot on ung call now. but when winter comes, the gas
price will go up and ung will be surely over 6. | b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 5 股市没有必然之事。相信必然的人一多，自然就都亏钱了。
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: I am losing quite a lot on ung call now. but when winter comes, the gas
: price will go up and ung will be surely over 6.
| h******o
发帖数: 6113 | 6 lol
【在 b*******e 的大作中提到】
: 股市没有必然之事。相信必然的人一多，自然就都亏钱了。
| B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 7 Even if NG price goes up after 6 months, UNG can still go down by then.
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: I am losing quite a lot on ung call now. but when winter comes, the gas
: price will go up and ung will be surely over 6.
| g****u
发帖数: 695 | 8 It's very dangerous to trade something that you don't even understand.
True, winter comes, natural gas price will go up. But that doesn't mean
UNG will go up. UNG invests in Future contracts which have already priced
in the demand change in every winter from the first day people start
trading it.
The only chance you have is to hope that the winter is much colder than
people has expected, which may or may not happen.
其实这里人盯着 UNG 不放的原因就只有一个：便宜，已经跌了好多了。
Unfortunately, this is the worst excuse to buy something in market.
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: I am losing quite a lot on ung call now. but when winter comes, the gas
: price will go up and ung will be surely over 6.
| g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 9 True.
But, it is a good reason to watch. | g****u
发帖数: 695 | 10 To watch for what? To catch a rebound? Don't you think there are many many
other good stocks that more worths your time?
UNG is such a loser product. The moment you have it in your hand, you put
yourself into a huge trading disadvantage. It's a trash with underlying
fundamentally bad and itself ill-constructed. Wall Street knows how
ridiculous it is yet they still put it in the market because they know
there are people who don't ask why but just buy and hope.
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: True.
: But, it is a good reason to watch.
| t********s
发帖数: 4503 | 11 Does it have time value decay like FAZ? It keeps dropping all the way.
【在 g****u 的大作中提到】
: It's very dangerous to trade something that you don't even understand.
: True, winter comes, natural gas price will go up. But that doesn't mean
: UNG will go up. UNG invests in Future contracts which have already priced
: in the demand change in every winter from the first day people start
: trading it.
: The only chance you have is to hope that the winter is much colder than
: people has expected, which may or may not happen.
: 其实这里人盯着 UNG 不放的原因就只有一个：便宜，已经跌了好多了。
: Unfortunately, this is the worst excuse to buy something in market.
| g****u
发帖数: 695 | 12 Neither FAZ nor UNG has time value decay.
The problem with FAZ is the fact that they reset the capital every day. In
other words, their 3x leverage is put on daily return. For example, if XLF
drop 10% today and rise 11% tomorrow, it doesn't lose anything in total.
Correspondingly, FAZ will drop 30% today and rise 33% tomorrow, but then
it lose 7% in total.
The problem with UNG is the roll-over loss. When they roll from the expiring
contracts to the next month, roll-over loss incurs. Theoretically the roll
over loss is there due to the storage cost, although it could be a little
more complicated than that. But anyway, you buy and hold UNG, you are paying
the cost to storage natual gas every day, which is very high (not hard
to understand), and for no good reason. Supply of natural gas in US is
over demand. Unlike other commodities, there is no China or India buying.
It's entirely local. The technology break in the last decade has hugely
increased the production in USA. Although the price keeps going low, the
inventory is always on the high end. This is completely a buyer's market.
You pay the storage cost for a loser, you are a double loser. Look at the
charts, natual gas price lost 50% from Oct 2008, during the same period,
UNG lost about 85%. I don't understand why somebody would want to buy
or even watch something designed to lose value.
【在 t********s 的大作中提到】
: Does it have time value decay like FAZ? It keeps dropping all the way.
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