R***a
发帖数: 2605 | 1 Natural Gas, Contango, And UNG
1 comment | February 1, 2012 | about: UNG, includes: USO, VXX
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I have talked at length in this space about the contango and negative roll
yield issues that plague VXX. Periodically these discussions trigger a
question from a reader about the impact of contango on some of the other
ETPs.
Just to be clear, as far as ETPs are concerned, contango and backwardation
issues are limited solely t... 阅读全帖 |
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c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 3 There are many reasons to be bearish on UNG, and they are right ones.
But there is at least one reason to have a bullish bias on UNG. Now
NG is very cheap.
Remember last December around Christmas? Oil was dirty cheap. There
were every reason to be bearish on USO, But look at USO there-after.
It is one thing to be bearish at UNG=$100, $50, ... $15. It is another
thing to be bearish at $9, $8, $7, ...
I can tell you a dirty secret about USO and UNG. The trading and volume
of USO and UNG do not cou |
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q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 4 天然气的许多公司股票比如APA等都还不错？
但是天然气的ETF：UNG绝对是毒药？
本胡想想在投机赌博UNG上损失惨重？
建议新手绝对禁止碰UNG？
自己的血汗钱自己做主啊？
UNG是美女式毒药和毒蛇啦？ |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 5 买UNG的同学们。。。还是要先搞清楚UNG是干嘛的。。
UNG几乎没有time decay，但是UNG有futures contracts rolling。。
这个月的holding会拿来买下个月的contract。。如果下个月价格涨，
下个月的contract就贵鸟。。。开销就大了，小户人家的，不值当。
买了UNG，大家自然希望天然气价格涨，但是支出随之高了，你的收益
就被限制了。天然气价格小幅震荡你就划不来，如果还走低，那就更没戏了。 |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 6 Neither FAZ nor UNG has time value decay.
The problem with FAZ is the fact that they reset the capital every day. In
other words, their 3x leverage is put on daily return. For example, if XLF
drop 10% today and rise 11% tomorrow, it doesn't lose anything in total.
Correspondingly, FAZ will drop 30% today and rise 33% tomorrow, but then
it lose 7% in total.
The problem with UNG is the roll-over loss. When they roll from the expiring
contracts to the next month, roll-over loss incurs. Theoreticall... 阅读全帖 |
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w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 7 09年天然气2元4的时候UNG 有100元，现在天然气快4元钱了，UNG 20 元。
就3年时候，天然气当前期货涨50%以上，UNG跌80%。
呵呵，不过UNG 好像油水也不多了.
VXX一年的跌幅更是惊人。 |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 8 你的7的call会快速decay，即使UNG猪，
如果UNG继续跌，更不好了，
如果你真的看好UNG，也要short put spread比较好， |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 9 买入UNG weekly put，同时买入5月到期的 15call，但是10点半后上涨那一波，我的
UNG call设的卖出limit price，距离今天最高价多三分钱，没有卖出，不然手上的UNG
puts就变成零成本了。
只好买入4月下周过期的15 put,然后在UNG一波下跌过程中卖出weekly put，这样手上
就是4月put加5月call, 准备忍一个星期。 |
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h****o
发帖数: 351 | 10 UNG很差很差，为什么？天然气的升水有10%-20%。
也就是说，如果价格恒定，UNG每个月亏掉10-20%。
你可以参考UNG的长期曲线。ETF不是股票，没有抄底一说。 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 11 UNG is trading natural gas future so has premium contango problem. Just like
buying option, there is time value of future contract. If natural gas price
is only going up 20% while time premium is 30%, you lose 10% on UNG. IN the
meanwhile, natural gas price goes up 20%. Those future cotracts are often
written by natural gas companies. So your money goes to traders and those
companies. If you bet natural gas in longer term, just buy and hold of
companies not UNG. The natural gas price will keep l |
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b****o
发帖数: 117 | 12 好像看到有人说UNG不宜长期持有，为啥？
UNG反映demand，长期看，经济迟早要回来的，demand终究是要回去的，UNG回到60多美
金，
对否？呵呵！ |
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B*********h
发帖数: 800 | 13 不要长期持有,是因为潜在的仓储费用太高.季节变动倒不是主要的.因为短期的供应量
太大，造成近期的NG期货大幅跳水，forward curve太陡。UNG就是个固定期货组合，死
公式还没有更新（据说快了），搞得现在UNG根本就不跟NG走，如果要跟踪NG还不如去
买Royalty Trust,或者相关个股。
我觉得UNG还是能在月底前冲上八块的。所谓的新技术到能够影响产量还要好几年。我
自己上车晚了，但是这个东西最好是反复follow trend,不要长期持有。 |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 14 It's very dangerous to trade something that you don't even understand.
True, winter comes, natural gas price will go up. But that doesn't mean
UNG will go up. UNG invests in Future contracts which have already priced
in the demand change in every winter from the first day people start
trading it.
The only chance you have is to hope that the winter is much colder than
people has expected, which may or may not happen.
其实这里人盯着 UNG 不放的原因就只有一个：便宜，已经跌了好多了。
Unfortunately, this is the worst excuse to bu... 阅读全帖 |
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r***k
发帖数: 13586 | 15 ung暂时不要空吧，偶要等ng上5再考虑short UNG。 |
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l***n
发帖数: 812 | 16 有趣。
根据下面的文字，用spot price当benchmark是不合适的，应该用near month future
price。
This is quoted from UNG website：
The investment objective of UNG is for the changes in percentage terms of
the units' net asset value to reflect the changes in percentage terms of the
price of natural gas delivered at the Henry Hub, Louisiana, as measured by
the changes in the price of the futures contract on natural gas traded on
the New York Mercantile Exchange that is the near month contract to expire,
except when the near mon... 阅读全帖 |
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b******e
发帖数: 9 | 17 【 以下文字转载自 TAX 讨论区 】
发信人: ByMySide (ByMySide), 信区: TAX
标 题: Schedule K-1, UNG
关键字: UNG
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Apr 12 23:24:14 2011, 美东)
收到UNG寄来的K-1表。去年买了这支股，股价一直跌也一直没有卖。没想到还会给我寄
过来K-1，显示有1000+刀的损失。
不明白的是，我又没有卖出股票，损失的话也是UNREALIZED呀。我就这样填到我的1040
里去吗？
有没有有相关经验的？？？谢谢了。 |
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w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 18 ung 长期来看肯定是要跌的。做多只能日内做。每个月的衰减比FAZ还厉害。
天然气价格还是很高，现在远一点的期货都是4元多，关键有SB在4元多买，天然气公司
就只好拼命生产。 我很奇怪是一些脑残到什么程度的基金一直在买远期的期货，到了
跟前一看，根本没人需要。 除非这些基金一直做空UNG. 长期来看，做空UNG不敢说100
%挣钱，99.9999999999999999%挣钱是肯定的。 |
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w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 19 你第一思维是人家做多UNG。其实 ，散户大部分是做空UNG的，所以天然气不动，每个
月也固定收益。何况天然气肯定是要跌的。股市里面最稳定的投资就是空UNG，UVXY。
任何时候空了这２个东西，你就可以几个月不看盘，然后几个月回来看看挣了多少就行
了。 |
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w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 20 现在去烧UNG，会死得很惨。首先，CONTANGO现在很小，１年以后的价格和现在一样，
这是这几年从没见过的，也就是对UNG有利。
另外，现在库存比５年平均少很多，RIG 基本历史最低。 现在去烧UNG，以后死都不
知道怎么死的。 |
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w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 21 现在去烧UNG，会死得很惨。首先，CONTANGO现在很小，１年以后的价格和现在一样，
这是这几年从没见过的，也就是对UNG有利。
另外，现在库存比５年平均少很多，RIG 基本历史最低。 现在去烧UNG，以后死都不
知道怎么死的。 |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 22 天然气开采成本据说1块多点，现在期货价格2块多，三块多，反正美国的大的开采公司
已经用期货或者其他办法锁定利润了，他们使劲采气，争取挤垮小公司。
经济不好，美国用气的不增加，供需严重过度，现在存的气太多都没法继续存了，反而
采气公司还要继续采，不采也是亏，要亏大家一起亏........
总而言之，天然气价格没有任何上升空间。
那么期货，就有疯狂的contago，就是天然气现货价格不变，UNG每天都掉钱，更何况天
然气在9 10月是消费最低的时候，现货价格都上不去的。
可能到11月天然气价格会有好转，不过那时候UNG多少钱就不知道了。
现在因为监管，UNG已经不是ETF，还有premium的问题，雪上加霜。 |
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D**p
发帖数: 293 | 23 如果想SHORT的话，今天是好时候啊。我可是昨天刚买了一些。你们在这个水平上烧UNG
那是找死啊。 UNG 是TRACK 天然气价格的，他永远不会到零。现在如果不是底的话，
也非常接近底了。从RISK/REWARD RATIO 看： 近期可能有10%的DOWNSIDE RISK.但是有
100% UPSIDE REWARD； 从长期（6个月）看，DOWNSIDE RISK 几乎为零。。。不看
FUNDAMENTAL,光看CHART，要害死人的。
建议你们查查石油和天然气几十年来的价格比例，就知道SHORT UNG 有多危险。 |
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G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 24 I only know UNG for 天然气.
I often buy UNG $5 call @ its low, and short UNG at its High. |
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G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 25 did you short UNG, UNG droped more than 2% today.
I did not short UNG because I hold too many SCO. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 26 If there exists a thing that mimics the price of natural gas,
I would have bought it long time ago, when natural gas price
was at around $2 and still falling. After looking at UNG's
curve, I just gave up the idea.
QUOTE:
发信人: KennyD (|-==-|), 信区: Investment
标 题: 还是不敢买UNG
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 8 10:38:12 2009, 美东)
虽然价格这么便宜。Contango ah contango, //sigh...
只得放弃。投机选择又少了一样，5555.
I believe GLD is the only thing that one can buy without getting
the physical stuff. Gold is heavy and expensive, so it d |
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l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 27 我前几天发贴说现在现在是long USO short UNG的好时候，后来我发现一个重大的错误
，我把$XNG当成天然气的价格指
数，而实际上这个跟DJUSOG类似，是主要15个主要的天然气公司的指数。在
stockcharts里反应天然气期货价格的应该是
$NATGAS, 我重新比较乐一下历史的石油和天然气价格比，发现现在的价格比已经远远
偏离乐正常水平。结论却和我上次
得出的相反， 石油/天然气价格比明显偏高。 其实原因我想不外呼 石油更能反应人们
对inflation的担心，而天然气更能反
应demand.
而且最近UNG屡屡创出天量，这和2月的USO比较接近。 |
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l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 28 Natural gas is still in the uptrend. It rise from March low 2.62 to today's
4.77. UNG for some reason cannot track the natural gas price at all.
So, if you are bullish on natural gas, buy some shale gas companies. Don't
stick to UNG.
.
But
of |
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m*****u
发帖数: 5534 | 29 他当初听我的推荐，奥因UNG，那时候我也不懂。
后来我明白了，趁一次反弹赶紧出去了。他就一直捂着。给他讲UNG不能捂的道理，他
都明白，但是赌性太重，说什么都没用。他就是要做长线，跌到5块钱都不卖，说只要
不卖，就不算亏。
因为所有钱都进去了，而且马金，最近看他压力很大，脾气也不好，根本不敢跟他提股
票。
特别让我担心的是，最近他还说全毁了，钱也亏光了，学业也废掉了，对比本人小赚了
一点（不多），会不会他悄悄买一桶天然气然后同归于尽呢？我最近还买了些收藏品，
很可能又刺激他了。而且他还跟我说过，“你xxx说一将成名万骨枯，你怎么知道自己
不是万骨呢？”
真的好怕……
咋办阿？废了…… |
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c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 30 ung=dba.
both are bitches. Do u fuck with bitch?
is he/she your boy/girlfriend? sell UNG and find a chance to buy EJ around
15.5 instead. |
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o*********l
发帖数: 1807 | 31
came
but
OH my man, You need to read what the underlying is for this ETF. It buys
Natgas Future contract and it is in contango which means current price(Spot
Price) is much lower than Future Price (UNG's underlying). Moreover, UNG
doesn't own any physical inventory. It just keep rolling future contracts
over when it expires and this rolling is eating big chunk out of your Net
asset Value(aka current etf price). |
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n*********e
发帖数: 665 | 32 请问怎么看UNG和天然气价格关系的趋势图？我在8.33进的UNG,准备在6.66 开始
average down,不知道可不可行。 |
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y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 33 也不需要研究什么contango这种英语里面的词汇，说白了就是仓储费用，你买下一个月
的天然气，那个天然气现在必须就要存在，所以一个月的储藏费你出。所以什么USO,
UNG等只会越来越低，就算天然气涨价，UNG也不可能回到60。GLD，SLV这些贵金属，储
藏费很小，才有可能比较接近得跟踪市价
contango". |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 34 说句实话，所有商品，金银油气，这个世界目前都是不缺的，只是投机资金在推高价格
而已，
而天然气在储存上，UNG在ETF的结构设计上，是天生缺陷的，不能和有大量资金投入的
金银油相比，
告诉大家个小秘密，天然气期货市场上有一半的contracts是UNG这个白痴机构持有的，
如果我没记错的话，可能数字有点误差， |
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b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 35 看看一年图，这些大都比UNG好。UNG就是送人去地狱的列车。 |
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h*********f
发帖数: 367 | 36 do you really know UNG?
Don't play with it, it is like FAZ.
UNG and FAZ both have serious decay as time goes.
Stay away from them. Man. |
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w*******r
发帖数: 1699 | 37 嗯, 所以俺put了ung. option真的好夸张, 快涨快跌的, 很适合俺这样性子急的. |
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G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 38 发信人: GoodLuck888 (GoodLuck), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: Re: Call UNG
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 3 11:19:50 2010, 美东)
Thanks! wagmal,TitanAE
but I doubled my UNG call.
Mon May 03 09:40:06 2010 Buy 40 UNY May 22 '10 $7 Call Executed @ $0.24 |
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l*******t
发帖数: 717 | 39 My broker's no long allowed us to trade UNG since early this year, though I
made about 10 grand on trading this stock last year.
UNG is a very interesting stock, its K-1 loss helped me waived about 2 grand
bucks on tax. You might have a loss on trading
and still need to pay tax or benefit from it.just like me, made money and
save tax. |
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a*u
发帖数: 2334 | 40 比我强, 我在上次UNG砸坑的时候, 以6.25卖了
UNG砸坑的记录可不是一次两次了 |
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G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 41 发信人: GoodLuck888 (GoodLuck), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: strong buy UNG Jan 22 '11 $5 Call
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 30 10:46:52 2010, 美东)
Thu Sep 30 10:43:52 2010 Buy 30 UNG Jan 22 '11 $5 Call Executed @ $1.28 |
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l******n
发帖数: 9344 | 42 I am losing quite a lot on ung call now. but when winter comes, the gas
price will go up and ung will be surely over 6. |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 43 mayoutu trapped by UNG?
I was amazed to see UNG at 5.xx. This is as bad a 2X, 3X ETF. fast decaying.
I may buy some at 4.XX, just to catch some dead cat bounce. |
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l******n
发帖数: 9344 | 44 这个UNG我上周上了10个6$的call,亏了50%出来了
我也是考虑到冬天来了之后，对于天然气的需求会持续上升，而且随着石油价格的走高
，天然气价格也应该有回升。
UNG从8月份开始从8$开始跌，处于一个非常明显的下降通道。从TA上看，没有短期的上
升的可能性，put/call ratio上看，大部分人不看好它的价格会回调。
现在就看有没有什么消息突然出来，比如天气突变之类的。
祝你好运 |
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M*********l
发帖数: 214 | 45 Because of the shale gas, the natural gas price will become cheaper and
cheaper. Even the price is super low right now, current producer still can
make profit and can accept even lower gas price.
UNG is just buying futures or swaps, and roll to next month when those
expires. Just short UNG. |
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w*****2
发帖数: 1584 | 47 UNG，unlimited negative growth。 |
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z***i
发帖数: 123 | 48 【 以下文字转载自 pennystock 俱乐部 】
发信人: zishi (zishi), 信区: pennystock
标 题: 为什么ung underperform benchmark这么多？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 27 14:33:56 2011, 美东)
看图 从九月开始NGUSHHUB INDEX已经回涨了这么多 可UNG还是那样 请高人指点 |
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g********4
发帖数: 4959 | 49 I cannot imagine you, a disciplined trader, would play UNG.I think you have
rule to tell you that some EFT/stock you will never touch. I by myself,
think UNG is one of them. |
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G*********8
发帖数: 644 | 50 发信人: GoodLuck888 (GoodLuck), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: short UNG.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 25 15:43:55 2011, 美东)
the best way is to short UNG or USO because their their value drops 1-2%
every month. |
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