S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 1 WASHINGTON (AP) — Efforts to save the nation from going over a year-end "
fiscal cliff" were in disarray as lawmakers fled the Capitol for their
Christmas break. "God only knows" how a deal can be reached now, House
Speaker John Boehner declared.
President Obama, on his way out of town himself, insisted a bargain could
still be struck before Dec. 31. "Call me a hopeless optimist," he said.
A look at why it's so hard for Republicans and Democrats to compromise on
urgent matters of taxes and spending, and what happens if they fail to meet
their deadline:
New Year's Headache
Partly by fate, partly by design, some scary fiscal forces come together at
the start of 2013 unless Congress and Obama act to stop them. They include:
Some $536 billion in tax increases, touching nearly all Americans,
because various federal tax cuts and breaks expire at year's end.
About $110 billion in spending cuts divided equally between the military
and most other federal departments. That's about 8 percent of their annual
budgets, 9 percent for the Pentagon.
Hitting the national economy with that double whammy of tax increases and
spending cuts is what's called going over the "fiscal cliff." If allowed to
unfold over 2013, it would lead to recession, a big jump in unemployment and
financial market turmoil, economists predict.
What if they miss the deadline?
If New Year's Day arrives without a deal, the nation shouldn't plunge onto
the shoals of recession immediately. There still might be time to engineer a
soft landing.
So long as lawmakers and the president appear to be working toward agreement
, the tax hikes and spending cuts could mostly be held at bay for a few
weeks. Then they could be retroactively repealed once a deal was reached.
The big wild card is the stock market and the nation's financial confidence:
Would traders start to panic if Washington appeared unable to reach accord?
Would worried consumers and businesses sharply reduce their spending? In
what could be a preview, stock prices around the world dropped Friday after
House Republican leaders' plan for addressing the fiscal cliff collapsed.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned lawmakers that the economy
is already suffering from the uncertainty and they shouldn't risk making it
worse by blowing past their deadline.
What if they never agree?
If negotiations between Obama and Congress collapse completely, 2013 looks
like a rocky year.
Taxes would jump $2,400 on average for families with incomes of $50,000 to $
75,000, according to a study by the non-partisan Tax Policy Center. Because
consumers would get less of their paychecks to spend, businesses and jobs
would suffer.
At the same time, Americans would feel cuts in government services; some
federal workers would be furloughed or laid off, and companies would lose
government business. The nation would lose up to 3.4 million jobs, the
Congressional Budget Office predicts.
"The consequences of that would be felt by everybody," Bernanke says.
The Taxes
Much of the disagreement surrounds the George W. Bush-era income tax cuts,
and whether those rates should be allowed to rise for the nation's
wealthiest taxpayers. Both political parties say they want to protect the
middle-class from tax increases.
Several tax breaks begun in 2009 to stimulate the economy by aiding low- and
middle-income families are also set to expire Jan. 1. The alternative
minimum tax would expand to catch 28 million more taxpayers, with an average
increase of $3,700 a year. Taxes on investments would rise, too. More
deaths would be covered by the federal estate tax, and the rate climbs from
35 percent to 55 percent. Some corporate tax breaks would end.
The temporary Social Security payroll tax cut also is due to expire. That
tax break for most Americans seems likely to end even if a fiscal cliff deal
is reached, now that Obama has backed down from his call to prolong it as
an economic stimulus.
The spending
If the nation goes over the fiscal cliff, budget cuts of 8 or 9 percent
would hit most of the federal government, touching all sorts of things from
agriculture to law enforcement and the military to weather forecasting. A
few areas, such as Social Security benefits, Veterans Affairs and some
programs for the poor, are exempt.
There's more at stake
All sorts of stuff could get wrapped up in the fiscal cliff deal-making. A
sampling:
Some 2 million jobless Americans may lose their federal unemployment aid
. Obama wants to continue the benefits extension as part of the deal;
Republicans say it's too costly.
Social Security recipients might see their checks grow more slowly. As
part of a possible deal, Obama and Republican leaders want to change the way
cost-of-living adjustments are calculated, which would mean smaller checks
over the years for retirees who get Social Security, veterans' benefits or
government pensions.
The price of milk could double. If Congress doesn't provide a fix for
expiring dairy price supports before Jan. 1, milk-drinking families could
feel the pinch. One scenario is to attach a farm bill extension to the
fiscal cliff legislation — if a compromise is reached in time.
Millions of taxpayers who want to file their 2012 returns before mid-
March will be held up while they wait to see if Congress comes through with
a deal to stop the alternative minimum tax from hitting more people.
Call the whole thing off?
In theory, Congress and Obama could just say no to the fiscal cliff, by
extending all the tax cuts and overturning the automatic spending reductions
in current law. But both Republicans and Democrats agree it's time to take
steps to put the nation on a path away from a future of crippling debt.
Indeed, the automatic spending cuts set for January were created as a last-
ditch effort to force Congress to deal with the debt problem.
If Washington bypassed the fiscal cliff, the next crisis would be just
around the corner, in late February or early March, when the government
reaches a $16.4 trillion ceiling on the amount of money it can borrow.
Boehner says Republicans won't go along with raising the limit on government
borrowing unless the increase is matched by spending cuts to help attack
the long-term debt problem. Failing to raise the debt ceiling could lead to
a first-ever U.S. default that would roil the financial markets and shake
worldwide confidence in the United States.
To avoid that scenario, Obama and Boehner are trying to wrap a debt limit
agreement into the fiscal cliff negotiations.
So what's the holdup?
They're at loggerheads over some big questions.
Obama says any deal must include higher taxes for the wealthiest Americans.
Many House Republicans oppose raising anyone's tax rates. Boehner tried to
get the House to vote for higher taxes only on incomes above $1 million but
dropped the effort when it became clear he didn't have the votes.
Republicans also insist on deeper spending cuts than Democrats want to make.
And they want to bring the nation's long-term debt under control by
significantly curtailing the growth of Medicare, Medicaid and Social
Security — changes that many Democrats oppose.
Obama, meanwhile, wants more temporary economic "stimulus" spending to help
speed up a sluggish recovery. Republicans say the nation can't afford it.
It's not just Washington
Seems like they could just make nice, shake hands and split their
differences, right?
But there's a reason neither side wants to give ground. The two parties
represent a divided and inconsistent America. True, Obama just won re-
election. But voters also chose a Republican majority in the House.
Republican and Democrats alike say they are doing what the voters back home
want.
Neither side has a clear advantage in public opinion. In an Associated Press
-GfK poll, 43 percent said they trust the Democrats more to manage the
federal budget deficit and 40 percent preferred the Republicans. There's a
similar split on who's more trusted with taxes.
About half of Americans support higher taxes for the wealthy, the poll says,
and about 10 percent want tax increases all around. Still, almost half say
cutting government services, not raising taxes, should be the main focus of
lawmakers as they try to balance the budget.
When asked about specific budget cuts being discussed in Washington, few
Americans express support for them.
The countdown
Time for deal-making is short, thanks to the holiday and congressional
calendars. Some key dates for averting the fiscal cliff:
Lawmakers aren't expected to return to the Capitol until after Christmas
, leaving less than a week to vote on a compromise before year's end.
Obama and his family also were leaving town for a Christmas vacation in
Hawaii. The president said because the fiscal cliff was still unresolved, he
would return to Washington next week.
If lawmakers reach Dec. 31 without a deal, some economists worry that
the financial markets might swoon.
The current Congress is in session only through noon Eastern time on Jan
. 3. After that, a newly elected Congress with 13 new senators and 82 new
House members would inherit the problem. | i*********n
发帖数: 5465 | 2 奥巴马去夏威夷度假了
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
【在 S*********g 的大作中提到】
: WASHINGTON (AP) — Efforts to save the nation from going over a year-end "
: fiscal cliff" were in disarray as lawmakers fled the Capitol for their
: Christmas break. "God only knows" how a deal can be reached now, House
: Speaker John Boehner declared.
: President Obama, on his way out of town himself, insisted a bargain could
: still be struck before Dec. 31. "Call me a hopeless optimist," he said.
: A look at why it's so hard for Republicans and Democrats to compromise on
: urgent matters of taxes and spending, and what happens if they fail to meet
: their deadline:
: New Year's Headache
| S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 3 年底前还回白宫谈判吗？
【在 i*********n 的大作中提到】
: 奥巴马去夏威夷度假了
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.7
| b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | | e***z
发帖数: 7126 | 5 －－－From WSJ:
Mr. Boehner told the president, "I put $800 billion [in tax revenue] on the
table. What do I get for that?"
"You get nothing," the president said. "I get that for free." | i*********n
发帖数: 5465 | 6
the
好像报导说 republican这边开始松口了？
【在 e***z 的大作中提到】
: －－－From WSJ:
: Mr. Boehner told the president, "I put $800 billion [in tax revenue] on the
: table. What do I get for that?"
: "You get nothing," the president said. "I get that for free."
| S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 7 共和党其实没有任何筹码
不知道为什么一直坚持
【在 i*********n 的大作中提到】
:
: the
: 好像报导说 republican这边开始松口了？
| p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 8
Exactly, if the deal can not be made. Everything will be expired
automatically.
Basically, the poor will have to pay more tax, but the rich will have to pay
much more tax than before.
【在 S*********g 的大作中提到】
: 共和党其实没有任何筹码
: 不知道为什么一直坚持
|
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