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发帖数: 2482 | 1 nvestors should strongly consider cutting their stock exposure this coming
May Day and parking the proceeds in cash until Halloween. 投资者应
该认真地考虑：在即将到来的五一劳动节前减持股票，并在万圣节前一直把现金利得攥
在手中。
That advice comes courtesy of a famous piece of Wall Street folklore that is
known by the adage 'sell in May and go away.' 这条建议其实源自于华尔街
一条广为流传的格言，即“五月清仓，离场观望”(sell in May and go away)。
Unlike most of the other stories investors tell, however, the historical
evidence in favor of this one is surprisingly strong. And deeper drilling
into the data suggests there are ways to tweak the approach so that you don'
t have to dump stocks entirely to capture some of the benefit. 然而，与
投资者讲述的大多数其他故事不同的是，支撑这一论点的历史证据却是出人意料地确凿
。不过，对过往数据更深入的挖掘表明，有途径对这个投资方法稍加变通，这样一来，
不必非要抛空手里的股票，你也能抓到某些收益。
You might also know of the 'sell in May' pattern by its other name, the '
Halloween indicator.' Both refer to the pronounced tendency for the stock
market, on average, to turn in its best returns between Halloween and May
Day─referred to loosely as the 'winter' months. 你或许还知道“五月清仓
”模式的另一个别名──“万圣节信号灯”(Halloween indicator)。这两种说法指的
都是美国股票市场的一个显著趋势，即平均来看，从万圣节到次年五一劳动节之间的这
段时间，股市带来的回报最丰厚。这个时间段可以粗略地称为“冬季月份”。
The stock market's average return during the other half of the year, the '
summer' months, is far lower. 而在另外半年，也就是“夏季月份”中，股票市
场的平均回报要低得多。
This pattern has been very much in evidence in recent years. Since the
seasonally favorable period began last Halloween, for example, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average has gained 11.5%. During last year's unfavorable six-
month period, by contrast, the Dow lost 0.9%. The year before that saw a 10.
5% gain during the winter months and a 6.7% loss during the summer months.
在最近几年，这种趋势一直颇为明显。例如，在始自去年万圣节的“冬季月份”中
，道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average Index)截至目前已经上涨了11
.5%。相比之下，在去年六个月的“夏季月份”中，道琼斯工业平均指数下滑了0.9%。
此前一年，道琼斯指数在“冬季月份”实现了10.5%的涨幅，在“夏季月份”则下跌了6
.7%。
To be sure, the pattern hasn't always worked out this well. But it has far
more often than not: Over the past 50 years, the Dow on average has produced
a gain of 7.5% during the winter months and lost 0.1% during the summer
months. 诚然，这种模式并非屡试不爽。但是它应验的时候远远多于失灵的时候：
在过去的50年间，道琼斯指数在“冬季月份”平均上升7.5%，在“夏季月份”则平均回
落0.1%。
The 'sell in May' pattern also exists in other countries besides the U.S.
Ben Jacobsen, a finance professor at Massey University in New Zealand,
reached that conclusion after studying all available historical evidence
from each of 108 separate stock markets around the world. For example, his
statistical tests detected the seasonal pattern in the United Kingdom stock
market as far back as 1694. “五月清仓”这一模式在美国以外的其他国家也有
体现。新西兰梅西大学(Massey University)的金融学教授本•雅各布森(Ben
Jacobsen)在通过对全球108个独立股市全部有记录可循的历史数据进行了研究后，得出
了这一结论。例如，他的统计数据表明，英国股市早在1694年便已存在这种季节性模式。
Mr. Jacobsen, in an interview, emphasized that the Halloween Indicator isn't
merely the product of a shameless, after-the-fact data-mining exercise. He
said that he found an article as long ago as 1935─in the Financial Times─
in which the 'sell in May' pattern is referred to as something that was
already well known and followed. 雅各布森在一次接受采访时强调，“万圣节
信号灯”可不只是厚着脸皮、事后诸葛亮式的数据挖掘的产物。他表示，他发现早在
1935年，《金融时报》(Financial Times)就有文章将“五月清仓”描述为人们已经熟
知并遵循的模式。
Even though the pattern nearly 80 years ago already had a solid historical
foundation, Mr. Jacobsen notes, since then the difference between the
average returns in winter and summer has become even bigger. 雅各布森指
出，尽管这种模式在近80年前就已经具备了坚实的历史根基，但和那时相比，如今“冬
季月份”和“夏季月份”股市平均回报间的差距甚至拉得更大了。
This is a crucial point, he argues, since the all-too-usual tendency is for
patterns to begin to evaporate once investors become aware of them and try
to exploit them. 雅各布森主张，这一点至关重要，因为通常的情况是，一旦投
资者觉察到某些模式并试图藉此谋利的时候，这些模式往往就会开始销声匿迹。
The most obvious investment implication of this seasonal pattern is to
liquidate your stock portfolios at the end of this month and sit comfortably
─if unexcitedly─in cash for six months. Because the stock market doesn't
always produce disappointing returns during the summer months, however, you
might want to dedicate just a portion of your equity portfolio to following
this market-timing strategy. 应对这种季节性模式最简单的方案就是：在本月
底把你所有的股票配置清仓变现，并在接下来的六个月中踏踏实实地离场观望，前提是
你能够做到不为所动。不过，由于在“夏季月份”中，股市的表现并非总是令人失望，
你可能只想拿出自己股票配置中的一部分来迎合这种市场择时策略。
There might be another way to follow it without going to cash. Mr. Jacobsen
reports that the 'sell in May' seasonal pattern is most pronounced among
those U.S. stock-market sectors that focus on manufacturing and production,
and is 'almost absent' in sectors such as consumer goods, financial services
, technology and telecommunications. 或许还有另外一种办法能让你不必把股
票变现也可以追随这种策略。雅各布森指出，“五月清仓”这一季节性模式在美国股市
各大板块中表现最显著的主要集中在生产制造业上，而消费品、金融服务、科技以及电
信等板块则“几乎不受影响”。
He told me that a hypothetical sector-switching portfolio would have beaten
an index fund by 3.3 percentage points per year over the past decade by
investing during the winter months in the sectors for which the Halloween
Effect is strongest, and switching in the summer months into those for which
the pattern is nearly absent. 他对我说，如果我们重演这种板块转换的配置
方法，即在“冬季月份”投资于“万圣节效应”表现最显著的类股，并在“夏季月份”
转而投资于对这种模式近乎免疫的类股，那么在过去十年间，这种投资法将年均跑赢指
数基金3.3个百分点。
Exchange-traded funds provide an easy and inexpensive way to gain exposure
to each of these sectors. IShares has offerings that are benchmarked to the
various Dow Jones indexes for these sectors: the iShares Dow Jones U.S.
Consumer Goods Sector Index Fund, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial
Sector Index Fund, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund
and the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Sector Index Fund. Each
has an expense ratio of 0.46%, or $46 for every $10,000 invested. 交易所
买卖基金(ETF)提供了一种投资股市各个板块的简便廉价的方式。安硕(IShares)提供挂
钩于不同道琼斯指数的ETF产品，比如：安硕道琼斯美国消费品业指数基金(iShares
Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Sector Index Fund)、安硕道琼斯美国金融业指数基
金(iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Sector Index Fund)、安硕道琼斯美国科技业
指数基金(iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund)以及安硕道琼斯
美国电信业指数基金(iShares Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Sector Index
Fund)。上述ETF的费率均为0.46%，即每投资10,000美元收取46美元的费用。
You also might not want to wait until May Day to make these portfolio
changes, according to Jeffrey Hirsch of the Almanac Investor Newsletter and
Sy Harding of Sy Harding Investor Forecasts. Both advisers, who are among
the many tracked by Hulbert Financial Digest, maintain a model portfolio
that attempts to exploit the 'sell In May' pattern. 《投资者通讯年鉴》(
Almanac Investor Newsletter)的杰弗里•赫希(Jeffrey Hirsch)及《赛•
哈丁投资者预测》(Sy Harding Investor Forecasts)的赛•哈丁(Sy Harding)称
，你也许不应该等到五一劳动节才调整自己的股票配置。这两位投资顾问都有一个利用
“五月清仓”模式来规划投资配置的样板投资组合，与其他著名投资人一样，他们受到
了《赫伯特金融资讯解读》(Hulbert Financial Digest)的关注。
They argue that if the stock market's shorter-term trend turns down in the
weeks leading up to May Day, followers of this seasonal pattern should sell
immediately rather than waiting until the beginning of May. To the extent
they are successful, they will improve on the already stellar returns of the
original version of the 'sell In May' pattern. 他们指出，在五一劳动节到
来前的几周内，如果股票市场的短线前景转淡，利用这一季节性模式的投资者应该立即
将股票出手，而不应该等到五月初才采取行动。只要投资者能够成功地做到这一点，他
们借助“五月清仓”法收获的投资回报还将锦上添花。
The key, of course, is in correctly identifying that shorter-term trend. Mr.
Hirsch believes it already has turned down, and therefore has sold many of
the positions in his model 'sell in May' portfolio and instructed clients to
sell their remaining equity holdings if they fall very much from current
levels. 当然，其中的关键之处在于能够正确地识别市场的短线前景。赫希认为当
前股市已经呈现出走低趋势，因此他已经售出了自己的“五月清仓”样板投资组合中的
很多头寸，他还建议客户，如果目前持有的股票大幅缩水，他们应将其沽清。
Mr. Harding, in contrast, is still giving equities the benefit of the doubt.
But he says that, as May Day approaches, he will be increasingly inclined
to sell at the first sign of market weakness. |
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