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a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 1 PLEASE Note - This is not research and is not intended as such. This has
been prepared by individuals on the sales/trading desks of the Securities
Division. This material does not represent a formal or official view of
Goldman Sachs as the views expressed herein are solely those of the author(s
), which may differ from those of Global Investment Research. All prices
are indicative only. All references to “we/our” refer to the observations
of the sales and trading desk.
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, April 1, 2014
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
COMMENTS
· Somewhat stealthily, equities reach new highs with Tech leading
the move. Almost every sector up with tech +1.5%, consumer serv +1.1%, and
healthcare +0.73. Maybe April is the month where a solid uptrend emerges.
Better question, what’s the best NFP number for stocks? Given the last FOMC
probably 150-200k; a Goldilocks not too hot, not too cold type scenario.
Closes: SPX +0.70% at 1885.52; DJIA +0.46% to 16,532.61, NASDAQ +1.64% to
4268.04.
· The VIX is down 0.78 to 13.10.
· USDJPY higher again (+0.4%) as clients look to get long ahead of
NFP later this week. Our trading desk is long and looking to add if we can
break 103.75/80. EURUSD rallies intraday but fails to break above 1.3815/20
and we think it will continue to struggle ahead of the ECB on Thursday.
Given the EONIA spike on month end there is definitely room for the ECB to
act. EM strength continues: USDTRY trades sub 2.14, USDKRW sub 1060, and
USDMXN below the 200dma at 13.0510 to a low sub 13.03.
· Treasuries sold off 3.5bps in 10s on a relatively quiet day in
which 10s traded in a 3bp range during the NY session. Flows in cash were
skewed to better buying, despite the price action.
· Brent and WTI both move consistently lower throughout the day on
what appeared to be primarily technicals. $100.00 in May WTI and 106.00 in
Brent acted as support briefly intraday but the selling pressure proved to
be too great as WTI is now 99.57 and Brent now trades 105.54. The grains
complex followed through yesterday’s price action after the USDA report as
May beans traded up 1.33% and May corn traded up 1%. The precious complex
holds its breath in anticipation of NFP this coming Friday as gold trade in
a $10 range.
· Tomorrow brings US ISM-NY, Factory Orders, and ADP; China Non-
manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI; Eurozone PPI; UK
Construction PMI and Home Prices; Spain Unemployment; Brazil IP; Australia
Retail Sales and Trade Balance; Norway Unemployment; and Japan PMI. In terms
of policy, COPOM will announce the SELIC target - we expect another 25bp
hike to 11.00% and the committee to leave the door open for additional hikes
. Additionally we will hear speeches from RBA Governor Stevens, the Fed's
Lockhart, and the IMF's Largarde.
HIGHLIGHTS
· Bloomberg: Rising Manufacturing Orders Signal Further U.S. Growth
· Reuters: U.S. public pension gap widended to nearly $1 trillion
in fiscal year 2012
· Bloomberg: ECB’s Constancio Says No Deflation Seen as Recovery
Gains
· ISM Manufacturing: 53.7 – lower than expected. Consensus 54.0.
Previous 53.2.
FLOWS (BONDS, EQUITIES, COMMODITIES)
US BONDS – 10 YR UST Down -0-10 at 99-30 YTM 2.756% 30 YR UST Down -0-28 at
100-11 YTM 3.606%
DJIA Up +74.95 at 16,532.61 (+0.46%) S&P Up +13.18 at 1,885.52 (+0.70%)
NASDAQ Up +69.05 at 4,268.04 (+1.64%)
GOLD Down -3.20 at 1,280.70 (-0.25%) WTI Down -2.23 at 99.35 (-2.20%)
AMERICAS
Date Time
Event
Consensus
Actual
Previous
04/01/14 09:45
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
56.0
55.5
55.5
04/01/14 10:00
ISM Manufacturing
54.0
53.7
53.2
04/01/14 10:00
ISM Prices Paid
59.5
59.0
60.0
04/01/14 10:00
Construction Spending MoM
0.00%
0.10%
-0.20%
04/01/14 10:00
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
46.0
48.0
45.1
04/01/14 15:39
Domestic Vehicle Sales
12.30M
12.78M
11.98M
04/01/14 15:39
Total Vehicle Sales
15.80M
16.33M
15.27M
· Bloomberg: Rising Manufacturing Orders Signal Further U.S. Growth
by gains in production and orders, in the latest sign that the economy is
shaking off its winter doldrums and building momentum into the second
quarter. The Institute for Supply Management’s index increased to 53.7 from
53.2 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Readings
above 50 indicate expansion. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of
economists was 54. Ford Motor Co., Chrysler Group LLC and Toyota Motor Corp.
today reported March sales that beat analysts’ estimates as consumers,
whose confidence is at a six-year high, returned to auto dealers and
shopping malls as the weather warmed.”
· Reuters: U.S. public pension gap widended to nearly $1 trillion
in fiscal year 2012. “The unfunded liabilities of public-employee pension
plans rose by 10 percent in fiscal 2012 to a record $914 billion, hit by low
investment returns, missed contributions and unfunded benefits,
underscoring the pension funding crisis in U.S. states and cities, a report
by the Pew Charitable Trusts said. Factoring in promises made by local
governments to fund pension benefits for their employees, total pension debt
climbed to over $1 trillion as of June 30, 2012, the end of the most recent
budget year for which data is available. “Even though we've seen recent
market gains and reforms, the funding gap has continued to grow for pensions
,” said David Draine, a senior researcher at the Pew Center on the States.
Pew's study does not reflect the hefty gains in equity markets since the
second half of 2012.”
· Reuters: Obamacare enrollment exceeds seven million target
despite setback. “President Barack Obama's national healthcare program
signed up more than 7 million people by the last day of March, the White
House said on Tuesday, notching a rare victory after a months-long, glitch-
filled rollout of the law. Obama is scheduled to make a statement about the
Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare, at 4:15 p.m. EDT in the
White House. His remarks could be the start of a victory lap for the
administration, which suffered from the botched unveiling of the program's
primary website, HealthCare.gov, and wavering support from Americans years
after the U.S. Congress passed the healthcare law over Republican objections
.”
WORLD
· Bloomberg: ECB’s Constancio Says No Deflation Seen as Recovery
Gains. “The euro area will probably avoid outright deflation as a “soft”
economic recovery gradually reduces spare capacity in the economy, European
Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said. “The prospects for
inflation are a cause for concern,” Constancio said at a press conference
in Athens today, a day after figures showed euro-area inflation slowed in
March to 0.5 percent, the lowest level in more than four years. “If indeed
the recovery consolidates, it means that the slack in the recovery is
reduced, and that will help on that score.” The Frankfurt-based ECB meets
this week for its monthly monetary-policy meeting against a backdrop of
improving economic data with gains in prices lagging behind.”
· Reuters: European ministers take sobering look at social impact
of crisis. “The economic crisis in Europe has put 6 million people out of
work and driven others into poverty, according to a think-tank study looking
into the social impact of the slump that was examined by EU finance
ministers for the first time on Tuesday. As host, Greece, the first euro
zone country to be bailed out during the crisis, put it on the agenda of the
regular meeting of EU finance ministers that has more usually focused on
appeasing financial markets with tough spending reforms. The meeting was
taking place a short distance from Syntagma Square, the focus of often
violent clashes over austerity measures imposed under the country's bailout,
although protests had been banned for this meeting.”
ECONOMIC/POLITICAL EVENTS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY:
Date Time
Country
Event
GS Forecast
Consensus
Previous
04/02/14 18:30
Australia
AiG Perf of Services Index
55.2
04/02/14 20:30
Australia
Retail Sales MoM
0.30%
0.30%
1.20%
04/02/14 20:30
Australia
Trade Balance
1.4B
800M
1433M
No New Zealand Releases
04/02/14 19:15
Japan
Markit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI
52.0
04/02/14 19:15
Japan
Markit Japan Services PMI
49.3
04/02/14 19:50
Japan
Japan Buying Foreign Stocks
-￥54.1B
04/02/14 19:50
Japan
Japan Buying Foreign Bonds
-￥395.5B
04/02/14 19:50
Japan
Foreign Buying Japan Bonds
-￥399.6B
04/02/14 19:50
Japan
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks
-￥191.0B
04/02/14 05:00
Eurozone
PPI MoM
0.00%
-0.40%
04/02/14 05:00
Eurozone
PPI YoY
-1.60%
-1.40%
04/02/14 04:00
Norway
Unemployment Rate AKU
3.60%
3.60%
04/02/14 02:00
United Kingdom
Nationwide House PX MoM
0.80%
0.60%
04/02/14 02:00
United Kingdom
Nationwide House Px NSA YoY
9.70%
9.40%
04/02/14 04:30
United Kingdom
Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI
63.0
62.6
04/02/14 07:00
United States
MBA Mortgage Applications
-3.50%
04/02/14 08:15
United States
ADP Employment Change
200K
195K
139K
04/02/14 09:45
United States
ISM New York
57.0
04/02/14 10:00
United States
Factory Orders
1.00%
1.20%
-0.70%
No Canada Releases
| M****n
发帖数: 411 | 2 谢谢
(s
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.0.1
【在 a**********2 的大作中提到】
: PLEASE Note - This is not research and is not intended as such. This has
: been prepared by individuals on the sales/trading desks of the Securities
: Division. This material does not represent a formal or official view of
: Goldman Sachs as the views expressed herein are solely those of the author(s
: ), which may differ from those of Global Investment Research. All prices
: are indicative only. All references to “we/our” refer to the observations
: of the sales and trading desk.
: NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, April 1, 2014
: 微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
: COMMENTS
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