p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 1 原想买 PGH, 但它涨的太多了些。
PWE cut dividend 和 capital spending is good news for long term.
It's better to leave oil in the ground instead of getting it
out and sell it for cheap price.
看他们 board members 自己买了那么多，应该不会让自己公司死掉吧。 |
x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 2 ZAN...
我还企盼砍分红能有最后一跌的。犹豫啊，贪心啊 |
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 3 又要去见1.95的。
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 原想买 PGH, 但它涨的太多了些。
: PWE cut dividend 和 capital spending is good news for long term.
: It's better to leave oil in the ground instead of getting it
: out and sell it for cheap price.
: 看他们 board members 自己买了那么多，应该不会让自己公司死掉吧。
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 4 I agree with you that the move today is a good one. However it is still a
weak player. The biggest concern is covenant. The payoff might be great for
you but the risk is still too high. Same for the PGH due to low netback even
before the crash. The both are good for short term bounce play, but for
long term hold, you probably need to buy strong ones including CLR, CHK and
EOG. Just my two cents.
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 原想买 PGH, 但它涨的太多了些。
: PWE cut dividend 和 capital spending is good news for long term.
: It's better to leave oil in the ground instead of getting it
: out and sell it for cheap price.
: 看他们 board members 自己买了那么多，应该不会让自己公司死掉吧。
|
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 5 I am kind of cheap, like to buy undervalued stocks because they usually give
much better percentage return. I expect it can be doubled in 2 years(
assuming oil price go back to $75-$80 level).
Also, psychologically I just treated as I didn't sell it at $5.x,
now I got more than double number of shares.
The oil price bust probably is good thing to many Canadian oil E&P companies
long term because there will be no more US shale oil investment in
next a couple of years. may be even no more investment in the deep sea
offshore drilling business. The low oil price also will affect a lot of
alternative energy business, such as ethanol. Relevantly, Most of Canadian
oil E&P company have some low cost oil fields. So does PWE.
PWE can just do oil drilling in the low cost areas now. Since it has the
lowest valuation in terms of PB and price to oil reserve, it has bigger
possibility to be acquired by a cash rich oil company or even some
private investors.
for
even
and
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: I agree with you that the move today is a good one. However it is still a
: weak player. The biggest concern is covenant. The payoff might be great for
: you but the risk is still too high. Same for the PGH due to low netback even
: before the crash. The both are good for short term bounce play, but for
: long term hold, you probably need to buy strong ones including CLR, CHK and
: EOG. Just my two cents.
|
b*******3
发帖数: 8135 | 6 你精神分裂的厉害。
当时买入的理由是PWR出售不良资产，还有分红，所以你认为好。
现在不卖资产了，也没有分红了，你又认为这个是你买入的理由。
你丫有谱没谱。
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 原想买 PGH, 但它涨的太多了些。
: PWE cut dividend 和 capital spending is good news for long term.
: It's better to leave oil in the ground instead of getting it
: out and sell it for cheap price.
: 看他们 board members 自己买了那么多，应该不会让自己公司死掉吧。
|
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 7
彼一时，此一时。 现在原油价格是去年的 60%. 现在的股价是 去年的 1/4。
卖资产是要在油价好时卖，才卖的出好价钱。 你会在 2008-2009 把房子卖掉吗 ？
today's volume is huge， 4x of average。 看来今天大的基金同意我的看法。
【在 b*******3 的大作中提到】
: 你精神分裂的厉害。
: 当时买入的理由是PWR出售不良资产，还有分红，所以你认为好。
: 现在不卖资产了，也没有分红了，你又认为这个是你买入的理由。
: 你丫有谱没谱。
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 8 I agree with you most of the points except for one.
Like I mentioned before, the asset valuation is based upon commodity pricing
. With oil at $100, the asset worth north of $6B. However, with current
price of $55 oil, I am not sure the asset would worth more than $2B. If you
agree with this, then the asset and debt are pretty much on par at this
point with a couple hundred millions to burn through next year.
Don't get me wrong, I do see the stock goes back to 5 when oil price gets
back
to $75 to 80. But the chance of dipping below $1 equally exists with oil
price stay around $60 for the next 12 month. If the later happens, the
covenant and default will be called into question.
give
companies
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: I am kind of cheap, like to buy undervalued stocks because they usually give
: much better percentage return. I expect it can be doubled in 2 years(
: assuming oil price go back to $75-$80 level).
: Also, psychologically I just treated as I didn't sell it at $5.x,
: now I got more than double number of shares.
: The oil price bust probably is good thing to many Canadian oil E&P companies
: long term because there will be no more US shale oil investment in
: next a couple of years. may be even no more investment in the deep sea
: offshore drilling business. The low oil price also will affect a lot of
: alternative energy business, such as ethanol. Relevantly, Most of Canadian
|
f*******e
发帖数: 74 | 9 老大，油价应该会猪一阵，这块就反弹，谁的目的都没达到，基本面没有任何变化没人
减产，没人破产没人说我要大量油，凭啥大涨呢？
现在因该是要么继续跌，要么猪 |
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 10 严重同意，我觉得猪可能性更大。
【在 f*******e 的大作中提到】
: 老大，油价应该会猪一阵，这块就反弹，谁的目的都没达到，基本面没有任何变化没人
: 减产，没人破产没人说我要大量油，凭啥大涨呢？
: 现在因该是要么继续跌，要么猪
|
|
|
x***n
发帖数: 2658 | 11 谁讲的故事，让所以人都洗脑觉得油要崩了？
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: 严重同意，我觉得猪可能性更大。
|
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 12
pricing
you
I don't think assets value is completely based on the oil price.
The assets valuation has many parts, it's largely composed of two parts.
* Equipment.
* Land with oil and NG reserves. The price for developed and undeveloped
oil/NG reserves are also different. The undeveloped reserves are
usually only count for $10-15/B(not much relevant to the current oil price
).
The developed reserves may be somewhat relevant to the current oil price,
but
still is not 100% relevant to the oil price.
I think oil should be able to stay above $50.
It is kind of similar to 2009, when oil was at around $35-$37 range, some
bearish analysts called oil $25 is the bottom, it actually did not broke $30
.
【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】
: I agree with you most of the points except for one.
: Like I mentioned before, the asset valuation is based upon commodity pricing
: . With oil at $100, the asset worth north of $6B. However, with current
: price of $55 oil, I am not sure the asset would worth more than $2B. If you
: agree with this, then the asset and debt are pretty much on par at this
: point with a couple hundred millions to burn through next year.
: Don't get me wrong, I do see the stock goes back to 5 when oil price gets
: back
: to $75 to 80. But the chance of dipping below $1 equally exists with oil
: price stay around $60 for the next 12 month. If the later happens, the
|
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 13
基本面已有变化，几乎每家石油公司都在 cut cap spending,
and cut production estimates for the next year.
Some cut as much as 30% for the cap spending.
快的话 2-3 个月就会看到 rig count goes down. Last week number of
rigs in the US is already down 27. After 3 months, you will
see big drop for rig count if oil stays at current price range.
【在 f*******e 的大作中提到】
: 老大，油价应该会猪一阵，这块就反弹，谁的目的都没达到，基本面没有任何变化没人
: 减产，没人破产没人说我要大量油，凭啥大涨呢？
: 现在因该是要么继续跌，要么猪
|
a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 14 I agree with your asset analysis and that is why I value PWE asset level at
$2B instead of 0. I think at this point, 50% haircut is very conservative.
Based upon natural gas price movement since 2008, the quick bounce back will
be short lived. While everybody says that NG cost basis should be $6 back
in 2009, NG did not hit bottom for another 2.5 years until 2011 for less
than $2.
If you look at today's NG market, the strong ones like CHK and SWN still
makes money at below $3 while weak ones like SD barely break even at $4. In
the meantime, a lot of marginal players with cost basis of $6 are long gone.
The predicted NG price going back to $6 is yet to happen 6 years after, not
even $5 and we are just about to scratch $4.
PWE cost basis is reasonably lower than average fracker in the US, however
that advantage disappeared when you consider the differential. The only
tailwind is the low currency to keep it float.
If it survives another 2 to 3 years, I agree that you can get double from
here which is not totally bad at all.
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: 基本面已有变化，几乎每家石油公司都在 cut cap spending,
: and cut production estimates for the next year.
: Some cut as much as 30% for the cap spending.
: 快的话 2-3 个月就会看到 rig count goes down. Last week number of
: rigs in the US is already down 27. After 3 months, you will
: see big drop for rig count if oil stays at current price range.
|
i********y
发帖数: 346 | 15 从一些指标看，WTI油价在50-60见底的可能性比较大，但是见底以后是底部震荡还是弹
起这个不确定，我个人觉得底部震荡一段时间的可能性更大。因此在这个点位拼搏一些
石油服务公司我感觉是有一定赢面的操作。从去年到今年，原油相关行业一直是我投资
组合里面被排除的sector，不过今天开始我不再排除了。至于个股，我不是特别了解这
个行业里面的individual stocks，我感觉个股风险还是蛮大的，有时候行业turn
around也不代表所有个股能turn around，相对而言无损耗的油气ETF或者market cap比
较大的公司更安全一些。
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 原想买 PGH, 但它涨的太多了些。
: PWE cut dividend 和 capital spending is good news for long term.
: It's better to leave oil in the ground instead of getting it
: out and sell it for cheap price.
: 看他们 board members 自己买了那么多，应该不会让自己公司死掉吧。
|
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 16 我认为相对来说 oil E&P 会有更大，更快的回报。 因为它跌得更多些。
石油服务公司相对来说跌的不多，回报也会小些（percentage)
I agree that ETF is safer. The oil E&P ETFs are XOP and
XEG.TO(for Canadian oil E&P).
至于我为什么买PWE, 因为我一直在follow up 它， 看它的 insiders
都在 几万，几十万股的买入。这至少给了我的 confidence.
【在 i********y 的大作中提到】
: 从一些指标看，WTI油价在50-60见底的可能性比较大，但是见底以后是底部震荡还是弹
: 起这个不确定，我个人觉得底部震荡一段时间的可能性更大。因此在这个点位拼搏一些
: 石油服务公司我感觉是有一定赢面的操作。从去年到今年，原油相关行业一直是我投资
: 组合里面被排除的sector，不过今天开始我不再排除了。至于个股，我不是特别了解这
: 个行业里面的individual stocks，我感觉个股风险还是蛮大的，有时候行业turn
: around也不代表所有个股能turn around，相对而言无损耗的油气ETF或者market cap比
: 较大的公司更安全一些。
|
b*******3
发帖数: 8135 | 17 你好像还是没搞清楚PWE到底有多少债务，和他的真实价值。这个股票在油价85以上是3
块左右。现在的价值，你自己算吧。
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: 我认为相对来说 oil E&P 会有更大，更快的回报。 因为它跌得更多些。
: 石油服务公司相对来说跌的不多，回报也会小些（percentage)
: I agree that ETF is safer. The oil E&P ETFs are XOP and
: XEG.TO(for Canadian oil E&P).
: 至于我为什么买PWE, 因为我一直在follow up 它， 看它的 insiders
: 都在 几万，几十万股的买入。这至少给了我的 confidence.
|
p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 18
是3
那你算的比它的 CFO, board members 还要清楚。 我服了你。
CFO 前不久刚买入 5 万股， 一个 board member 更是买入 30 万股。
board chairman 也一直在买。
说实话我还没看到一个公司 insiders 这样前赴后继的买入自己的公司的。
我一朋友跟我说当初它在 Seagate 上班时，它曾跌到 $5,
大家都自己拼命买。 这很他像当初在 Seagate 那时。
【在 b*******3 的大作中提到】
: 你好像还是没搞清楚PWE到底有多少债务，和他的真实价值。这个股票在油价85以上是3
: 块左右。现在的价值，你自己算吧。
|
b*******3
发帖数: 8135 | 19 建议你买3年期以上的ITM的call，赚钱的机会要大一些。
PWE这样的股票长期来看没啥希望。本质上讲，这个公司都不能算作一个上市公司。
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: 是3
: 那你算的比它的 CFO, board members 还要清楚。 我服了你。
: CFO 前不久刚买入 5 万股， 一个 board member 更是买入 30 万股。
: board chairman 也一直在买。
: 说实话我还没看到一个公司 insiders 这样前赴后继的买入自己的公司的。
: 我一朋友跟我说当初它在 Seagate 上班时，它曾跌到 $5,
: 大家都自己拼命买。 这很他像当初在 Seagate 那时。
|
p*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 20 最有可能还是东亚国家买。油价跌这么猛，他们没办法捞十年二十年以后的期货，买这
种运转不太好的公司相当于买溢出价很小的期货。好公司，大公司他们买不到。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.6
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: 是3
: 那你算的比它的 CFO, board members 还要清楚。 我服了你。
: CFO 前不久刚买入 5 万股， 一个 board member 更是买入 30 万股。
: board chairman 也一直在买。
: 说实话我还没看到一个公司 insiders 这样前赴后继的买入自己的公司的。
: 我一朋友跟我说当初它在 Seagate 上班时，它曾跌到 $5,
: 大家都自己拼命买。 这很他像当初在 Seagate 那时。
|
x****9
发帖数: 2668 | 21 无商不奸，以小搏大。他们不入，谁会替他们抬轿子。
不过并购倒是让熊熊不敢放肆虐待小公司。
那你算的比它的 CFO, board members 还要清楚。 我服了你。
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: 是3
: 那你算的比它的 CFO, board members 还要清楚。 我服了你。
: CFO 前不久刚买入 5 万股， 一个 board member 更是买入 30 万股。
: board chairman 也一直在买。
: 说实话我还没看到一个公司 insiders 这样前赴后继的买入自己的公司的。
: 我一朋友跟我说当初它在 Seagate 上班时，它曾跌到 $5,
: 大家都自己拼命买。 这很他像当初在 Seagate 那时。
|
p*******o
发帖数: 1464 | 22 不过今天的涨不能说明什么。和最近的跌一样，看着percentage大，绝对值并不大，都
是散户在折腾吧。别盯着了，你已经买了，估计在水下也会变着法说服自己了。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.6
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
:
: 是3
: 那你算的比它的 CFO, board members 还要清楚。 我服了你。
: CFO 前不久刚买入 5 万股， 一个 board member 更是买入 30 万股。
: board chairman 也一直在买。
: 说实话我还没看到一个公司 insiders 这样前赴后继的买入自己的公司的。
: 我一朋友跟我说当初它在 Seagate 上班时，它曾跌到 $5,
: 大家都自己拼命买。 这很他像当初在 Seagate 那时。
|
