m*********7
发帖数: 293 | 9 2017 Top Trades initiated in Nov 2016:
1. Go long the dollar against the euro and the pound to play the divergence
in economic performance as well as the political risks on both sides of the
pond.
成功
2. Go long the dollar/yuan to play a weakening Chinese currency, Goldman
said, advising using the 12-month non-deliverable forward contract with an
initial target of 7.30, compared with current levels around 7.07.
失败
3. Goldman advised earning "good carry" in emerging markets and hedging the
risk from China and a declining yuan. To play that theme, it said to go long
an equally weighted basket of Brazil's real, Russia's ruble, India's rupee
and South Africa's rand, while at the same time shorting an equally weighted
basket of South Korea's won and the Singapore dollar.
失败
4. Go long emerging market equities with insulated exposure to growth,
specifically Brazil, India and Poland, without hedging currencies, Goldman
suggested. "We remain positive on the emerging market ex-China growth
recovery story heading into 2017 and see a good entry point in expressing
this view via emerging market equities," the bank said. "Brazil, Poland and
India offer an 'insulated exposure' to the emerging market growth recovery
story, without being particularly exposed to China growth or U.S. trade
policy."
成功
5. Play the "reflation" theme by going long U.S. 10-year TIPS, or Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities, "break-even" inflation and long euro 10-year
inflation via swaps, it said.
失败
6. Go long Euro Stoxx 50 2018 dividends via a swap trade, it said.
"Equities may not benefit from the reflation as much as we would like, owing
to already elevated valuations and rising rates capping upside," the
Goldman note advised. "In addition, equities have been, and are likely to
stay, volatile owing to political risk and elevated uncertainty," it said. "
Dividends swaps are less high beta than equities but also have some
sensitivity to better growth."
It expected more than 10 percent potential return from its swap play, higher
than the likely upside for the equity market.
不知道pay fix rate是多少，无法考证结果。
说实话他家这两年就靠MA撑着，FICC做的真的不咋地。
【在 E***r 的大作中提到】
: 狗剩的trade of the year是他家的sell-side分析师写的，目标读者不只是散户，还有
: 其他机构和自家的buy-side分析师。所以对散户而言并不一定具有可操作性，尤其是那
: 些pairs trade的建议；何况自家的buy-side分析师也不一定买账。但以为认为人家写
: 的是BS，也是没搞清楚情况。
:
: sense
|
