w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
By this rule, even a gambler has 1% edge over a casino,(50.5% vs 49.5%)
If he can't control his each bet under 1% of his total capital, he will
still lose all his money.
In reality, when a casino has edge over a gambler, how many can control
their each bet under 1% of their total capital? Whoever can brings $1000 to play
blackjack, but only bet $10 each time?
So a gambler lose his money not mainly because of the edge casino has over him,
but because o | i***g
发帖数: 80 | 2 That's right. Christ was talking about start from 0 to become Hero. Free
roll to $10000, the main point is the br management... | k******t
发帖数: 257 | 3 I thought this is nonsense? Betting minimum every hand is stupidest thing
except you just wanna kill time.You may lose slower, but will lose all of
your money for sure. Card counting or not, you got to push when you feel
situation favors.
to play
him,
【在 w***w 的大作中提到】
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
: By this rule, even a gambler has 1% edge over a casino,(50.5% vs 49.5%)
: If he can't control his each bet under 1% of his total capital, he will
: still lose all his money.
: In reality, when a casino has edge over a gambler, how many can control
: their each bet under 1% of their total capital? Whoever can brings $1000 to play
: blackjack, but only bet $10 each time?
: So a gambler lose his money not mainly because of the edge casino has over him,
: but because o
| w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 4 1. In the situation a gambler has 1% edge over casino, if he bet more than 1
% of his total capital for each bet, he will lose his total capital at some
point, even he has a probability advantage.
Let's say if a gambler has 99% probability, should he bet 100% of his
capital for each of his bets? Obviously no, since he will lose his total capital
in 100 bets(theoreratically), the one he lose out of 100 will cost him all
his money, no matter how much he win before.So how much he should bet each
ti
【在 k******t 的大作中提到】
: I thought this is nonsense? Betting minimum every hand is stupidest thing
: except you just wanna kill time.You may lose slower, but will lose all of
: your money for sure. Card counting or not, you got to push when you feel
: situation favors.
:
:
: to play
: him,
| c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 5 actually poker players should probably play under 1/2 or 3/4 of the kelly's
value, cause if you play following kelly's value, the fluctuation is
still very high, suppose you bet 1/n of your bankroll, you still have
1/n of the chance to go down to 1/n of your bankroll. Kelly's
formula gives the highest growth rate of your bankroll, with a high
fluctuation. That actually means if you play bj at casino and you think
you have 1% edge over the casino, you can only bet 0.5% of your bankroll
each time
【在 w***w 的大作中提到】
: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
: By this rule, even a gambler has 1% edge over a casino,(50.5% vs 49.5%)
: If he can't control his each bet under 1% of his total capital, he will
: still lose all his money.
: In reality, when a casino has edge over a gambler, how many can control
: their each bet under 1% of their total capital? Whoever can brings $1000 to play
: blackjack, but only bet $10 each time?
: So a gambler lose his money not mainly because of the edge casino has over him,
: but because o
| w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 6 Almost all poker players do that(bet under 1/2 kelly's value)without
knowledge of Kelly criterion.
That is due to poker structure.
If you allin preflop with AA, then you have 80% odds, by Kelly criterion you
should bet 60%(or less) of your bankroll.How much % of bankroll a normal
player put into a game? If anyone put 60% of his bankroll into a game, he
knows his bankroll is in danger,this is so straightforword, and most people
can understand the risk by instinct.
If a player really wants to mak | c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 7 it's actually hard to estimate one's edge in this game averagely,
I estimate I am at least an averagely 10% favorate in allin situations, that
's
why 10 buyins or 20 buyins law is good I guess.
you
people
【在 w***w 的大作中提到】
: Almost all poker players do that(bet under 1/2 kelly's value)without
: knowledge of Kelly criterion.
: That is due to poker structure.
: If you allin preflop with AA, then you have 80% odds, by Kelly criterion you
: should bet 60%(or less) of your bankroll.How much % of bankroll a normal
: player put into a game? If anyone put 60% of his bankroll into a game, he
: knows his bankroll is in danger,this is so straightforword, and most people
: can understand the risk by instinct.
: If a player really wants to mak
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