p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 1 Had been playing quite solid on a 2-5 NL table.
Raised 20$ UTG with AQ(hero 450$), called by tight/weak black guy(350$)
and a Vietnam girl at SB (over 1k$).
Flop came Q T 7, two spade. I checked, black guy bet 50$ into 60$ pot,
vietnam
girl snap called.
I did not have any spade in my hand. After thinking quite a while , I
just decided to fold on the flop even I know I have best hand a lot of time.
Since I only have 20$ invested and it is quite dangerous to me to continue
this hand OOP.
I would lost the hand anyway. | H****r
发帖数: 2801 | 2 wow, that's real nit
$)
time.
continue
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: Had been playing quite solid on a 2-5 NL table.
: Raised 20$ UTG with AQ(hero 450$), called by tight/weak black guy(350$)
: and a Vietnam girl at SB (over 1k$).
: Flop came Q T 7, two spade. I checked, black guy bet 50$ into 60$ pot,
: vietnam
: girl snap called.
: I did not have any spade in my hand. After thinking quite a while , I
: just decided to fold on the flop even I know I have best hand a lot of time.
: Since I only have 20$ invested and it is quite dangerous to me to continue
: this hand OOP.
| c******q
发帖数: 456 | 3 Do you mind to share your thought on the flop?
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.36 | W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 4 Might as well Just fold preflop. lol. Save $20 more.
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.36 | w**********y
发帖数: 1691 | 5 I think it is a good and reasonable fold.
But why you just checked at flop? The sb checked and you also checked?
KQ is good enough for the black guy to bet 50$, right?
$)
time.
continue
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: Had been playing quite solid on a 2-5 NL table.
: Raised 20$ UTG with AQ(hero 450$), called by tight/weak black guy(350$)
: and a Vietnam girl at SB (over 1k$).
: Flop came Q T 7, two spade. I checked, black guy bet 50$ into 60$ pot,
: vietnam
: girl snap called.
: I did not have any spade in my hand. After thinking quite a while , I
: just decided to fold on the flop even I know I have best hand a lot of time.
: Since I only have 20$ invested and it is quite dangerous to me to continue
: this hand OOP.
| h****5
发帖数: 191 | 6 standard fold. pick a better spot. | c******q
发帖数: 456 | 7 Why is this a standard fold?
standard fold. pick a better spot.
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.36
【在 h****5 的大作中提到】
: standard fold. pick a better spot.
| p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 8 mm 老湿总是这么犀利。。。
【在 W********m 的大作中提到】
: Might as well Just fold preflop. lol. Save $20 more.
: ★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.36
| p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 9 I do not think that it is a stanford fold since we raised pre and we do have
tptk.
I made the decision mainly based on risk/reward concern. I think that is
the area where my cash game improves somewhat after playing so many hands
online.
When we make a decision, I think we should not only make it based on
range/equality and read, we should also think about risk/reward factor,
which could give us huge long term edge. We are dealing with incomplete
information when making a poker decision, there is no shame to fold the best
hand once a while as long as it is risk/reward wise favorable.
The black guy had been playing pretty tight. He called my UTG raise
and bet so strong on the flop, his range is pretty much AQ/KQ, QT, TT, 77,
or maybe a big draw. We are already somewhat under ranged against the black
guy. When the Vietnam girl called, I knew she is on the draw, but it could
be a favorable draw.
I only invest 20$ there, calling on the flop would make the pot 210$
and I would be quite committed. There would be too many turn cards that I do
not like. If I choosed to shoved there, I can only get called by better hand
from that black guy, the Vietman girl may choose to call with big draw if
she get the right price. So considering all these factors, with only 20$
invest and 430$ behind, I think folding is the best option risk/reward wise.
In actual hand, black guy had AQ too, Vietnam girl had Js9s. She hit
her draw and won the pot.
【在 c******q 的大作中提到】
: Why is this a standard fold?
:
: standard fold. pick a better spot.
: ★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.36
| g**s
发帖数: 1114 | 10 +1...
LOL
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: mm 老湿总是这么犀利。。。
| | | d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 11
have
is
on
best
Player Nim, I don't like your using the result to prove anything.
I think you had special read on those 2 ppl. But still I am not sure why you
did not bet out on the flop.
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: I do not think that it is a stanford fold since we raised pre and we do have
: tptk.
: I made the decision mainly based on risk/reward concern. I think that is
: the area where my cash game improves somewhat after playing so many hands
: online.
: When we make a decision, I think we should not only make it based on
: range/equality and read, we should also think about risk/reward factor,
: which could give us huge long term edge. We are dealing with incomplete
: information when making a poker decision, there is no shame to fold the best
: hand once a while as long as it is risk/reward wise favorable.
| M********g
发帖数: 717 | 12 So what are their hands?
$)
time.
continue
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: I do not think that it is a stanford fold since we raised pre and we do have
: tptk.
: I made the decision mainly based on risk/reward concern. I think that is
: the area where my cash game improves somewhat after playing so many hands
: online.
: When we make a decision, I think we should not only make it based on
: range/equality and read, we should also think about risk/reward factor,
: which could give us huge long term edge. We are dealing with incomplete
: information when making a poker decision, there is no shame to fold the best
: hand once a while as long as it is risk/reward wise favorable.
| f**********1
发帖数: 52 | 13 I like your check on the flop and would probably fold as well only because
of the stack size of the vietnamese girl, I'm not worried about the black
guy, I don't think you're under ranged against him, you could have AA/KK/
AsKs/AsJs/AQ/TT/77/QQ, or even Js9s, suited connector spade depending how
they perceive you. if the vietnamese stack were comparable and how you
think you can push her off the draw, I would push here or call and push on
turn with blank, the way I look at risk and reward...
also not sure why that vietnamese girl only called there, how did she got to
the stack size she has? in her position, a raise would be a standard play
to win right there or stack up... unless she thinks you and black guy won
't fold TpTk or a set in a flush board later on.. | c******q
发帖数: 456 | 14 I am kind of lost here. Why do you think raise is a standard play for SB? As
you said, hero could have AA/KK/AKs/AJs/AQ/TT/77/QQ/J9s/SCs. Against this
range, I don't see much of folding equity. The same range can apply to the
black guy as well. Against two players, the folding equity is even smaller.
If the purpose of raise here is to build the pot rather than to push villian
out, how many cards do you really like on the turn/river? OESFD looks
pretty, but it is more often to draw to trouble than to the nuts.
to
play
won
【在 f**********1 的大作中提到】
: I like your check on the flop and would probably fold as well only because
: of the stack size of the vietnamese girl, I'm not worried about the black
: guy, I don't think you're under ranged against him, you could have AA/KK/
: AsKs/AsJs/AQ/TT/77/QQ, or even Js9s, suited connector spade depending how
: they perceive you. if the vietnamese stack were comparable and how you
: think you can push her off the draw, I would push here or call and push on
: turn with blank, the way I look at risk and reward...
: also not sure why that vietnamese girl only called there, how did she got to
: the stack size she has? in her position, a raise would be a standard play
: to win right there or stack up... unless she thinks you and black guy won
| f**********1
发帖数: 52 | 15 I'm lost why you're kind of lost here:-) j/k....
excuse my wording here of using "standard" if that's the reason why you got
lost...
I'm not getting into the discussion of folding equity here, we know that for
a fact hero has folded here with hindsight vision...
now playing vietnamese girls hand, a call is like playing her hand face up,
I don't know what happened on later street, how much money did she get paid
off. a check raise would be my "standard" play right there,you want the
others whole stack if you hit your draw and even not, you could more than
likely make them fold with aggression before river. | T*********k
发帖数: 1621 | 16 I am not as XiLi as Teacher MM, but he has a point.
If you are worried about risk / reward ratio of playing this hand OOP, it
might just better to limp in early position. Raise this hand OOP, hit your
card, but check fold after one bet and one call seems strange. | c******q
发帖数: 456 | 17 If you didn't assign a range to hero, I agree that playing draw fast here is
a good option. However after you put such a strong range to hero, I don't
understand the raise any more. More often than not, you will face a 3-bet
from hero. Are you willing to put all your stack in to chase SF? Don't
forget the fact that quite a few higher flush draws are in hero's range. | f**********1
发帖数: 52 | 18 now you really lost me, what do you mean " if I didn't assign a range to
hero", don't you try to put someone on certain range of hands when you play
all the time?
SB's hand has straight flush draw better than any AsKs/AsJs, ahead of any
other hand in the range except probably KsJs, let alone a TpTk. of course I
would push all in with my stack size against any 4-bet. actually preferable.
of course I want to give SB some credit for her stack size, but really
unsure about her call here, unless she knows the rest of table would not
fold any TpTk or alike in any case... | p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 19 one had AQ too and the other one had Js9s.
【在 M********g 的大作中提到】
: So what are their hands?
:
: $)
: time.
: continue
| p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 20 I certainly do not fold tptk often. But based on the playing style of two
opp and the board structure, it is quite risky to proceed with this hand.
My AQ on Q T 7 two spade board is so much weaker than Q 7 2 rainbow board.
If both opp are on a draw, I could be still a huge under dog. That is
thy it is mathematical correct to fold nuts straight on the flop a lot of
time when playing PLO. Here I only invest 20$, I have to put additional 430
$ into risk wih such low EV situation if I choose to proceed.
Plus there is good chance that one opp had s strong made hand better
than one pair.
【 在 TheBigSlick (Ivan) 的大作中提到: 】 | | | c******q
发帖数: 456 | 21 Actually I would probably raise too if I was SB. But I think you put too
many strong hands into hero's range. If it is the case, I'd rather to flat
here. What I put hero on is totally air, mid-pair, AK (non spade), AQ, or
flush draw, because I don't expect hero to slow play his set or AKs on such
a draw heavy board. Against this range, J9s has quite significant equity and
folding equity as well. In term of the black guy, he could have as strong
as QQ or even AKs. But with his shallow stack behind, I don't mind to put
the money in and see two more cards. | n*****t
发帖数: 190 | 22 If you choose to check/fold this flop, you might want to fold pre-flop with
this hand next time. Cannot understand you point about risk control.
$)
time.
continue
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: I certainly do not fold tptk often. But based on the playing style of two
: opp and the board structure, it is quite risky to proceed with this hand.
: My AQ on Q T 7 two spade board is so much weaker than Q 7 2 rainbow board.
:
:
: If both opp are on a draw, I could be still a huge under dog. That is
: thy it is mathematical correct to fold nuts straight on the flop a lot of
: time when playing PLO. Here I only invest 20$, I have to put additional 430
: $ into risk wih such low EV situation if I choose to proceed.
:
| s*********r
发帖数: 4210 | 23 I see Player's view. Raise with AQo pre is good under that moment. With the
flop and a new round of betting, he got more information than before, so
folding here is reasonable. | W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 24 "If both opp are on a draw, I could be still a huge under dog. "
This is incorrect. Even if they are on a straight flush draw, you are still
slightly under dog, depending on whether you have A of spade or not 45%:55%
or 49%:51%. This is not a huge underdog. If 2 of them are drawing then you
are ahead money EV wise for sure.
"My AQ on Q T 7 two spade board is so much weaker than Q 7 2 rainbow board
."
I also diagree with this statement. Your AQ is not SO MUCH weaker on a drawy
board QT7 spade. The hand that is way ahead of you are sets (which are the
same number of combo for the two different boards) and maybe QT only
additional. But there are also more hand on a drwy board which they will
call with and you can get extra value from, open end straight draws, flush
draws, they would all call incorrectly which gives you more value than a dry
board. It maybe slightly more difficult to play, but really not that
difficult with a sub 100bb stack.
This is the bottom line:
1) more value with tptk on a drawy board.
2) more variance with tptk on a drawy board.
whether you want to continue to play your tptk with a drawy board depends on whether you want to put your 400$ at risk to maximize your expected value. Player chose "NO". 400 is too much to lose. I think this is totally fine. But I also think AQ will be put in a bad situation either way post flop after raising utg. Better fold preflop to reduce variance. | d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 25 I would prolly fold as well.
As to the question about whether the SB should flat call or raise with j9s,
I feel the actual question is Whether there is fold equity if she raise. I
say player nim's range is not strong, definitely has a lot FE. While the
weak tight black guy almost has not. So it is a flat call for me to invite
more chips into the pot to make our draw more pretty. | p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 26 I did mention in OP that I have no spade in my hand.
say if one guy has KJ, one guy has js9s, I run pokerstov. I only have
about 35% equality to win the pot although I am ahead on the flop. 35%
equality is a solid underdog for me.
AQ on that draw heavy board against two tight opp with strong bet/call
is pretty weak. Combined the range of two opp, it
is very likely to be -EV , or slightly +EV to proceed. I think I can get bigger edge
in the game instead of chasing such low EV( if plus) situation.
still
%
you
board
drawy
the
【在 W********m 的大作中提到】
: "If both opp are on a draw, I could be still a huge under dog. "
: This is incorrect. Even if they are on a straight flush draw, you are still
: slightly under dog, depending on whether you have A of spade or not 45%:55%
: or 49%:51%. This is not a huge underdog. If 2 of them are drawing then you
: are ahead money EV wise for sure.
: "My AQ on Q T 7 two spade board is so much weaker than Q 7 2 rainbow board
: ."
: I also diagree with this statement. Your AQ is not SO MUCH weaker on a drawy
: board QT7 spade. The hand that is way ahead of you are sets (which are the
: same number of combo for the two different boards) and maybe QT only
| W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 27 35% of 3 way pot is +ev btw. Not really important here since we did not know what they had, just want to point it out.
I did mention in OP that I have no spade in my hand.say if one guy has KJ,
one guy has j........
★ Sent from iPhone App: iReader Mitbbs Lite 7.36
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: I did mention in OP that I have no spade in my hand.
: say if one guy has KJ, one guy has js9s, I run pokerstov. I only have
: about 35% equality to win the pot although I am ahead on the flop. 35%
: equality is a solid underdog for me.
:
: AQ on that draw heavy board against two tight opp with strong bet/call
: is pretty weak. Combined the range of two opp, it
: is very likely to be -EV , or slightly +EV to proceed. I think I can get bigger edge
: in the game instead of chasing such low EV( if plus) situation.
:
| l*****g
发帖数: 1128 | 28 I think it's fine if you don't want to take the risk. There are always
better spots, but personally I would not fold on that flop. Raised with AQ
pre-flop, and you then flopped TPTK, that's the flop you were hoping for.
Although it's a drawy board, but that's how you make money from giving them
incorrect odds to draw. A dry board is much safer, but who is going to call
you? I don't know if the lady got the straight on the turn or on the river.
If the turn is a blank, I always bet big on the turn. If they call and get
there, then it's fair because they pay the good price, but a lot of times
they won't make it, and that's how you make your money from your good hand.
You also have the option to fold when they hit, so it's not completely your
stack. If you went all in on the turn, I don't think she was going to call.
have
bigger edge
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: I did mention in OP that I have no spade in my hand.
: say if one guy has KJ, one guy has js9s, I run pokerstov. I only have
: about 35% equality to win the pot although I am ahead on the flop. 35%
: equality is a solid underdog for me.
:
: AQ on that draw heavy board against two tight opp with strong bet/call
: is pretty weak. Combined the range of two opp, it
: is very likely to be -EV , or slightly +EV to proceed. I think I can get bigger edge
: in the game instead of chasing such low EV( if plus) situation.
:
| p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 29 we are always playing against a range, not a specific hand. we do not know
if we are against a draw or stronger made hand. Against big draw ,we are 50-
50, against set , we are almost dead.
I was pretty sure that girl was on a draw. But that tight/weak black guy
can have 77,TT, or QTs easily and bet strong with such a draw heavy board.
them
call
.
.
your
【在 l*****g 的大作中提到】
: I think it's fine if you don't want to take the risk. There are always
: better spots, but personally I would not fold on that flop. Raised with AQ
: pre-flop, and you then flopped TPTK, that's the flop you were hoping for.
: Although it's a drawy board, but that's how you make money from giving them
: incorrect odds to draw. A dry board is much safer, but who is going to call
: you? I don't know if the lady got the straight on the turn or on the river.
: If the turn is a blank, I always bet big on the turn. If they call and get
: there, then it's fair because they pay the good price, but a lot of times
: they won't make it, and that's how you make your money from your good hand.
: You also have the option to fold when they hit, so it's not completely your
| W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 30 Ignoring any specific read, what I was trying to say is that on a drawy
board like QT7 2 toned board, in general the continuation range and raise
range of your opponents are in fact weaker NOT STRONGER because they could
call with a lot of weaker draws and raise with semi-strong draws which you
could get a lot of VALUE from. On the other hand, a bone dry board like Q72r
, they will not continue with a lot of weaker hand.
know
50-
guy
.
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: we are always playing against a range, not a specific hand. we do not know
: if we are against a draw or stronger made hand. Against big draw ,we are 50-
: 50, against set , we are almost dead.
:
: I was pretty sure that girl was on a draw. But that tight/weak black guy
: can have 77,TT, or QTs easily and bet strong with such a draw heavy board.
:
:
:
: them
| | | p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 31 On Q 7 2 r board, we can definately get three street value from hand like QJ
, KQ, QT etc from the right person.
Even if against two opponent 's range , our AQ has slight positive EV (guess less than 5%) , do we
have to take it? That is where my point is. From the point of risk/reward,
or risk-Averse, we can pass these slightly +EV spot and put money in a huge
favor situation. I think I can get much higher edge against these players
later on other than putting my whole stack into this very mariginal spot.
I started from BlackJack. When we have True count+1, we have a slight
edge in most BJ game. But do we put a big bet there? no, since the edge is
small and we will wait until TC+5 or TC+6 put our max bet there.
Since gambling is high risk investment, we do not always make our
decision purely based on EV, we should also think about risk Averse factor.
Say when we get 20 in BJ, and dealer shows an Ace. From EV perspective, it
is -Ev to buy insurance w/o deck count info. From civilian's wisdom , it is
good idea to buy insurance since we have a winning hand
James Grosjean has an article showing that why it is risk Averse wise
correct to buy insurance(assume we do not know the count of the deck) when
we get 20 against dealer's Ace.
Q72r
【在 W********m 的大作中提到】
: Ignoring any specific read, what I was trying to say is that on a drawy
: board like QT7 2 toned board, in general the continuation range and raise
: range of your opponents are in fact weaker NOT STRONGER because they could
: call with a lot of weaker draws and raise with semi-strong draws which you
: could get a lot of VALUE from. On the other hand, a bone dry board like Q72r
: , they will not continue with a lot of weaker hand.
:
: know
: 50-
: guy
| W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 32 这不就是我在24楼说得吗？variance 大，因为对手的continuation range wider with
a drawy board. 你选择fold 来reduce variance, 我没问题。 see my post
"This is the bottom line:
1) more value with tptk on a drawy board.
2) more variance with tptk on a drawy board.
whether you want to continue to play your tptk with a drawy board depends on
whether you want to put your 400$ at risk to maximize your expected value.
Player chose "NO". 400 is too much to lose. I think this is totally fine"
不过你硬要说你的AQ is weaker facing a drawy board， 我觉得明显不对。 当然现
场打牌有很多其他东西要考虑来narrow 对手的range, 但是如果光从range 上来考虑，
一个drawy board like QT7 two toned board 和Q72r board 比, 对手会有更多
weaker drawing hand 来叫你的bet,也就是说你的bet 有更多value, 而比你强的牌基
本没变（sets and rare two pair like Q10s, in fact if he calls with Q10s, he
might call with Q7s as well).
"If both opp are on a draw, I could be still a huge under dog" 还有你这句话
也是信口开河。明明3 way 你是正ev, 你偏说是huge under dog.
你怎样打牌我管不了， 你有特别read, fold 也没问题。 但这种逻辑和计算上明显的误导，
我还是要提一下的。
QJ
(guess less than 5%) , do we
,
huge
slight
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: On Q 7 2 r board, we can definately get three street value from hand like QJ
: , KQ, QT etc from the right person.
: Even if against two opponent 's range , our AQ has slight positive EV (guess less than 5%) , do we
: have to take it? That is where my point is. From the point of risk/reward,
: or risk-Averse, we can pass these slightly +EV spot and put money in a huge
: favor situation. I think I can get much higher edge against these players
: later on other than putting my whole stack into this very mariginal spot.
: I started from BlackJack. When we have True count+1, we have a slight
: edge in most BJ game. But do we put a big bet there? no, since the edge is
: small and we will wait until TC+5 or TC+6 put our max bet there.
| d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 33 mm LAO SHI, XI LI~~~ kaka |
|
