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发帖数: 29846 | 1 Tehran can continue to enrich uranium at 10,000 working centrifuges.
Updated Nov. 24, 2013 10:18 p.m. ET
President Obama is hailing a weekend accord that he says has "halted the
progress of the Iranian nuclear program," and we devoutly wish this were
true. The reality is that the agreement in Geneva with five Western nations
takes Iran a giant step closer to becoming a de facto nuclear power.
Start with the fact that this "interim" accord fails to meet the terms of
several United Nations resolutions, which specify no sanctions relief until
Iran suspends all uranium enrichment. Under this deal Iran gets sanctions
relief, but it does not have to give up its centrifuges that enrich uranium,
does not have to stop enriching, does not have to transfer control of its
enrichment stockpiles, and does not have to shut down its plutonium reactor
at Arak.
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Mr. Obama's weekend statement glossed over these canyon-sized holes. He said
Iran "cannot install or start up new centrifuges," but it already has about
10,000 operational centrifuges that it can continue to spin for at least
another six months. Why does Tehran need so many centrifuges if not to make
a bomb at the time it pleases?
The President also said that "Iran has committed to halting certain levels
of enrichment and neutralizing part of its stockpiles." He is referring to
an Iranian pledge to oxidize its 20% enriched uranium stockpile. But this
too is less than reassuring because the process can be reversed and Iran
retains a capability to enrich to 5%, which used to be a threshold we didn't
accept because it can easily be reconverted to 20%.
Mr. Obama said "Iran will halt work at its plutonium reactor," but Iran has
only promised not to fuel the reactor even as it can continue other work at
the site. That is far from dismantling what is nothing more than a bomb
factory. North Korea made similar promises in a similar deal with
Condoleezza Rice during the final Bush years, but it quickly returned to
bomb-making.
As for inspections, Mr. Obama hailed "extensive access" that will "allow the
international community to verify whether Iran is keeping its commitments."
One problem is that Iran hasn't ratified the additional protocol to its
International Atomic Energy Agency agreement that would allow inspections on
demand at such sites as Parchin, which remain off limits. Iran can also
oust U.N. inspectors at any time, much as North Korea did.
Then there is the sanctions relief, which Mr. Obama says is only "modest"
but which reverses years of U.S. diplomacy to tighten and enforce them. The
message is that the sanctions era is over. The loosening of the oil regime
is especially pernicious, inviting China, India and Germany to get back to
business with Iran.
We are told that all of these issues will be negotiated as part of a "final"
accord in the next six months, but that is not how arms control works. It
is far more likely that this accord will set a precedent for a series of
temporary deals in which the West will gradually ease more sanctions in
return for fewer Iranian concessions.
Iran will threaten to walk away from the talks without new concessions, and
Mr. Obama will not want to acknowledge that his diplomatic achievement wasn'
t real. The history of arms control is that once it is underway the process
dominates over substance, and a Western leader who calls a halt is denounced
for risking war. The negotiating advantage lies with the dictatorship that
can ignore domestic opinion.
Mr. Obama all but admitted this himself by noting that "only diplomacy can
bring about a durable solution to the challenge posed by Iran's nuclear
program." He added that "I have a profound responsibility to try to resolve
our differences peacefully, rather than rush towards conflict." Rush to
conflict? Iran's covert nuclear program was uncovered a decade ago, and the
West has been desperately trying to avoid military action.
Enlarge Image
Iran nuclear talks at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, Sunday, Nov
. 24, 2013. Associated Press
The best that can be said is that the weekend deal slows for a few weeks
Iran's rapid progress to a nuclear breakout. But the price is that at best
it sets a standard that will allow Iran to become a nuclear-capable regime
that stops just short of exploding a bomb. At worst, it will allow Iran to
continue to cheat and explode a bomb whenever it is strategically convenient
to serve its goal of dominating the Middle East.
This seems to be the conclusion in Tehran, where Foreign Minister Javad
Zarif boasted that the deal recognizes Iran's right to enrich uranium while
taking the threat of Western military action off the table. Grand Ayatollah
Ali Khameini also vouchsafed his approval, only days after he denounced the
U.S. and called Jews "rabid dogs."
Israel has a different view of the deal, with Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu calling it a "historic mistake." He and his cabinet will now have
to make their own calculations about the risks of unilateral military action
. Far from having Israel's back, as Mr. Obama likes to say, the U.S. and
Europe are moving to a strategy of trying to contain Israel rather than
containing Iran. The French also fell into line as we feared they would
under U.S. and media pressure.
***
Mr. Obama seems determined to press ahead with an Iran deal regardless of
the details or damage. He views it as a legacy project. A President has
enormous leeway on foreign policy, but Congress can signal its bipartisan
unhappiness by moving ahead as soon as possible to strengthen sanctions. Mr.
Obama warned Congress not to do so in his weekend remarks, but it is the
only way now to stop the President from accommodating a nuclear Iran. | T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 2 情理之中。
美国向左，日落西山。
其它地域强国自然会雄起。 |
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