l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 U.S. Economic Growth Slows To a Crawl in First Quarter
Frigid Weather, Weak Exports Curtail Activity
WASHINGTON—The U.S. economy nearly stalled in the first quarter as weakness
overseas hurt exports and frigid weather curtailed business investment.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced
across the economy, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in the
first quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That matched the
second-weakest quarterly reading of the nearly five-year-old economic
recovery.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast growth at a 1.1%
pace for the quarter.
"Not a great start to the year," said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at
Sterne Agee.
The broad slowdown halted what had been improving economic momentum during
much of 2013. The economy expanded at a 3.4% pace in the second half of last
year. The first-quarter reading fell far below even the lackluster average
annual gain of near 2% since the recession ended.
The primary driver of the weaker-than-expected growth figure: Exports fell
at the fastest rate since the recession ended, declining at a 7.6% pace in
the first quarter. The number partly reflects shaky economies in Europe and
Asia generating poor demand, rather than underlying weakness in the U.S.
Businesses also let supplies dwindle during the quarter, with the change in
private inventories subtracting 0.57 percentage point from growth. An
inventory buildup in the third quarter of last year boosted second-half
growth. Now that stockpiles have been depleted, manufacturers might increase
future output to meet demand.
While the latest figures are "certainly eye catching, we do not find it to
be representative of the underlying health of the U.S. economy," said
Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp. "Anyone tempted to
panic ... should just take a breath."
Mr. Moody expects growth to accelerate as the economy pulls out of the
winter doldrums. He also noted that Wednesday's report relies on estimated
figures for March trade, inventories and construction spending. If those
figures are stronger than estimated, the Commerce Department could raise the
GDP reading next month. Other indicators, including retail sales and
factory output, strengthened in March compared with earlier in the year.
While the severity of the first-quarter slowdown surprised many economists,
an easing of growth was broadly expected because January through March were
abnormally cold in much of the country.
Business spending on items such as equipment, buildings and intellectual
property fell at a 2.1% pace in the first three months of the year. That was
the first decline in a year and reversed in part the 5.7% gain the prior
period. The slowdown in investment coincided with weaker hiring during the
quarter.
The weather likely slowed consumer spending on goods, which rose at a mere 0
.4% pace during the quarter. But households spent more on services-including
energy to heat their homes and health care-causing total consumer spending
to rise at a 3.0% pace, only slightly below the fourth quarter's 3.3% rate.
Consumer spending was the "silver lining within a dour first-quarter growth
report," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers
LLC. But that enthusiasm is somewhat tempered because consumers tend to have
little choice in spending on utilities and medical care.
The latest numbers continue a familiar pattern. The nation's economic
recovery, which started in mid-2009, has been marked as much for its
choppiness as its slow pace.
At several junctures, consecutive strong quarters have raised hopes for a
breakout-only to be upended by a slowdown. The overall gains have been too
weak to push the unemployment rate back in line with historical norms. The
unemployment rate in March stood at a still-elevated 6.7%.
Many economists believe the first-quarter pullback was a temporary speed
bump. They expect demand that slowed in the winter to accelerate later in
the year.
Before Wednesday's report, forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers projected
the economy would grow at a 3.5% pace in the second quarter and hold near
that rate for the remainder of the year.
Overall government outlays continued to be a drag, but federal spending made
a positive contribution to growth for the first time in six quarters. The
pace of federal government spending had mostly curtailed growth since late
2010 because stimulus measures enacted during the recession were replaced
with budget cuts known as the sequester.
As the effect of budget cuts fade, federal spending should boost growth this
year. Federal outlays increased at a 0.7% pace in first quarter compared
with an 12.8% decline in the fourth quarter of 2013, which included a 16-day
government shutdown.
Residential fixed investment--spending on home building and improvements--
declined at a 5.7% rate in first quarter. That was the second straight
quarterly decline for the category, which had contributed to growth for the
previous three years.
Cold weather likely halted some building, but other factors are slowing
demand in the housing market. Mortgage interest rates were about a
percentage point higher in the first quarter than a year earlier, making
house payments more expensive for new borrowers. Rising prices and limited
selection also could be dissuading families from moving. Spending on
improvements and furnishings often follow home purchases.
The latest figures come as Federal Reserve officials conclude a two-day
meeting Wednesday. The numbers aren't likely to influence policy
significantly, given the expectations for improved growth later in the year.
But officials remain concerned about inflation measures. Persistently low
inflation could complicate the Fed's decisions about how to wind down its
bond-buying program this year and when to raise benchmark interest rates
from near zero.
The personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred
inflation gauge, advanced at an annualized 1.4% in the first quarter, the
report said. That was a slight acceleration from the fourth quarter, but
still below the Fed's 2% inflation target. | m********8
发帖数: 7463 | 2 Frigid Weather，Okay???
其实展开说主要有几个原因
1：宝钞发行力度不够大。宝源宝泉二局虽世受皇恩，发行宝钞采办银票虚货一事，虽
多次
降旨催办，可惜最近二局居功自傲，办事不利，推诿搪塞，导致采办数量逐月递减，实
属欺君，必须严惩。
2：历史上如有风雨不调，则百姓流离，千年罕有例外者。 现在大美利坚国 伯理玺天
德 疤瘌客 猴塞音 奥巴马 广设粥厂，多方赈济，虽天时不顺，可龙虾供给源源不断。
太平盛世得以延续。足见英明！
3：Clearly it is all REPUBLICANS FAULT!! 兹有逆臣，暗结共和一党，垄断朝政，
以致圣意不达，王道不行。最低工资关乎民生，民有所安闲系于此，可惜几个权臣横加
阻挠，实属欺君罔上！
4：刁民当道，税款难以全额稽缴。
如果 厘，徭，役，田赋，房宅赋，口赋，春捐，秋捐，贡捐，寿捐，丝捐，茶税，盐
铁专卖，车马漕运，辽饷，剿饷，练饷 （等）全额稽缴到位，何患民生不振？
weakness
produced
the
1%
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: U.S. Economic Growth Slows To a Crawl in First Quarter
: Frigid Weather, Weak Exports Curtail Activity
: WASHINGTON—The U.S. economy nearly stalled in the first quarter as weakness
: overseas hurt exports and frigid weather curtailed business investment.
: Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced
: across the economy, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in the
: first quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That matched the
: second-weakest quarterly reading of the nearly five-year-old economic
: recovery.
: Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast growth at a 1.1%
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