p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 1 802 个 likely voter, Trump 44%, Clinton 39%…
绝大部分 poll 都不是 raw, 而是 weighted, 用 2012 年 voter turnout 来 weigh.
但大家都知道，Trump supporter 对 Trump support 的热情 和 Romeny Supporter 对
Romney 的 support 热情绝对不是一个等级。所以用 2012 的 turnout 来 weigh
poll, 绝对低估了 Trump 的支持率。
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/14/interesting-bloomberg-non-
weighted-poll-of-802-ohio-likely-voters-trump-44-clinton-39/ | w****i
发帖数: 2369 | | k****g
发帖数: 1509 | 3 and senator Portman leading almost 20% than former governor. this year my
ohio should return to our people.
【在 p*****n 的大作中提到】
: 802 个 likely voter, Trump 44%, Clinton 39%…
: 绝大部分 poll 都不是 raw, 而是 weighted, 用 2012 年 voter turnout 来 weigh.
: 但大家都知道，Trump supporter 对 Trump support 的热情 和 Romeny Supporter 对
: Romney 的 support 热情绝对不是一个等级。所以用 2012 的 turnout 来 weigh
: poll, 绝对低估了 Trump 的支持率。
: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/14/interesting-bloomberg-non-
: weighted-poll-of-802-ohio-likely-voters-trump-44-clinton-39/
| p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 4 Portman 绝对是个指示灯。对 trump 赢 OH 乐观。
Another Republican, Senator Rob Portman, holds a commanding lead of 53
percent to 36 percent over former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland in the
state’s U.S. Senate contest. The incumbent leads with a ratio of more than
2-to-1 among independents and is even getting 14 percent from Democrats and
those who lean that way.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/440027/basket-full-favorable-polls-trump
【在 k****g 的大作中提到】
: and senator Portman leading almost 20% than former governor. this year my
: ohio should return to our people.
| R****x
发帖数: 622 | |
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