t*b
发帖数: 850 | 1 1) Real Clear Politics and averaged major polls show Hilary leads about 5%.
2) All polls in average polled about 8% more Dem than GOP (8% is 8% of total
polled).
3)There are about 1/3 Independents, 2/3 are DEM + GOP. Trump has about 10%
leads in Independents over Hilary. 10% * 1/3 = about 3% lead.
4) Basically these data say: Trump's lead in Independent just about offsets
the higher DEM polled.
4) Turnouts: GOP primary has about 5.6% more than DEM.
Pew: Combined Republican turnout has been 17.3% of eligible voters.
Democratic turnout is 11.7% of eligible voters.
5) The accurate polling should have about 5% more GOP than DEM, not the
other way around.
6) Thus, Trump actually leads about 8% = 5% (5% more GOP in turnouts) plus 3
% lead in Independents (10 * 1/3). The numbers 5% more GOP turnouts, and
Trump lead in Independents obviously will vary. But at this moment it is
safe to predict Trump will win by 5-10%. |
t*******h
发帖数: 2744 | |
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 3 其实，base都差不多，大选就是要看turnout。前两届，老黑打鸡血，奥黑就赢了。 |
f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 4 签名不错，内容呢？
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: 傻逼
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 5 Just look at the Turnouts this primary season, Dems are down 21% and
Republicans are up by something like 50+%, in addition Trump performs better
with independents. A lot of these polls are using weights that were for
2012, 2008. So as of right now, I think he will outperform these polls by a
rather large margin. |
g****n
发帖数: 7494 | 6 你个人渣
你支持的老婊子和奥黑驴迟早进监狱
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: 傻逼
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 7 no need to even reply to him. |
o******l
发帖数: 2324 | 8 哈哈，good one
【在 f**********n 的大作中提到】
: 签名不错，内容呢？
|
R*********0
发帖数: 3242 | 9 一天报到一次就行了，我们知道你这傻逼还活着就放心了
【在 t*******h 的大作中提到】
: 傻逼
|
