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发帖数: 1067 | 1 AVERAGE或者MEDIAN的民众，其智商和判断力都是可疑的。 | D*******o
发帖数: 3229 | 2 关于群众智慧，有这么一个故事：
Galton was a keen observer. In 1906, visiting a livestock fair, he stumbled
upon an intriguing contest. An ox was on display, and the villagers were
invited to guess the animal's weight after it was slaughtered and dressed.
Nearly 800 participated, and Galton was able to study their individual
entries after the event. Galton stated that "the middlemost estimate
expresses the vox populi, every other estimate being condemned as too low or
too high by a majority of the voters",[36] and reported this value (the
median, in terminology he himself had introduced, but chose not to use on
this occasion) as 1,207 pounds. To his surprise, this was within 0.8% of the
weight measured by the judges. Soon afterwards, in response to an enquiry,
he reported[37] the mean of the guesses as 1,197 pounds, but did not comment
on its improved accuracy. Recent archival research[38] has found some slips
in transmitting Galton's calculations to the original article in Nature:
the median was actually 1,208 pounds, and the dressed weight of the ox 1,197
pounds, so the mean estimate had zero error. James Surowiecki[39] uses this
weight-judging competition as his opening example: had he known the true
result, his conclusion on the wisdom of the crowd would no doubt have been
more strongly expressed. |
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