|
|---|
|
|
|
|
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 1 (1)最近几天他每次喊底喊顶都非常准。
(2)现在能够在空头屠城的血光之灾看到股票的本身价值。
(3)他的动机是带大家一起赚钱，不是当托。
我不认识他，跟他从来没有打过电话，见过面。我是一个老股民，这是我对他的印象。
我对GRPN的分析角度和方法与他的角度和方法不同：我认死了空头已经赚了很多钱，所
以有本钱继续砸，老多头已经亏了很多钱，所以有心无力。新多头仍然在旁观，等待空
头砸到三块左右的时候入场捡便宜。
我对GRPN感兴趣，是觉得它是做option的好材料。我曾经卖过扑，结果亏了，我转身烧
股票，打了个平手。前几天我以为业绩不错，又卖了扑，结果股票无力站稳八，连七块
五都勉强，于是我卖了一些靠对充风险。
本来看到CFO卖股就应该获利平仓。但是这个股票第一季度提前泄露业绩导致过猛涨，
所以我以为能冲到八块五。结果连八块都挂不住。我只好仓促平仓，不但分文不赚，还
小有损失。
我的看法是这股破了五块就有新人进场，空头打到PE等于十五的时候开始收手。收手之
后股票的走势就难判断了。
高盛的报告初稿立刻出来了：（注意这只是初稿）
Groupon 2Q First Take: Revenue lower than expected, but lower marketing
spend and better take rate push EPS higher.
Key takeaways:
■Revenue came in at $568mn (+38% yoy), which was below our estimate of $
580mn and consensus of $575mn, but in line with guidance of $550mn to $590mn
. Excluding a $32.4mn unfavorable fx impact, revenue growth would have been
+53% yoy.
■Groupon Goods surpassed the $200mn annual revenue run-rate in 2Q, which
the company accounts for on a gross basis.
■CSOI of $72mn was in line with our estimate of $73mn, above consensus of $
69mn and in line with guidance of $60mn to $80mn.
■Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 was above our estimate of $0.03 and above consensus
of $0.03.
2Q results analysis:
■North American revenue of $260mn was above our estimate of $223mn and
above consensus of $243mn.
■Take rate of 44.2% was above our estimate of 39.7% and above consensus of
40.1%.
■Marketing expense of $88mn (15.6% of sales) was below our estimate of $
125mn and below management's 20% long-term target.
3Q guidance:
■Revenue guidance of $580mn to $620mn brackets our estimate of $614mn and
consensus of $605mn.
■CSOI guidance of $45mn to $65mn was below our estimate of $82mn and below
consensus of $76mn. | c**u
发帖数: 374 | | T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | | H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 4 今天进场的人很多，不知道是谁，过几天看SEC文件才能知道。
大概触动了老多头的风险控制门槛，老多头不得不割肉。所以有秃鹫和青蛙来拣便宜。
总共六点四亿股，流通二点六亿股，七月底共有半亿股被烧，占流通股的五分之一。现
在不知道有多少股被烧，谁有数据？ | x****e
发帖数: 403 | | T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 6 5.5貌似可以抗一阵
【在 x****e 的大作中提到】
: right...go ahead..
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
