t*******c
发帖数: 288 | 1 One more 中长期个股: VNDA. Strong support at 10.66. Target: 20 and above,
good chance of buy out above $25(depending on sell number of Fanapt).
Valuation calculation:(in a conservative way)
1) 200M Cash from Novartis
2) Another ~200M Cash from ROW partnership as predicted by morningstar
once ROW approvals are in order
3) 265M Cash eligible from Novartis achieving sales milestones in USA
and Canada - lets discount this cash to 50M since VNDA obviously
doesn't have it yet.
4) Another 50M of discounted value due to a similar sales milestone
arrangement (again, referring to the morningstar piece) with a ROW
partner.
5) A "just-off-the-top-of-my-head" discount of ALL the future
royalties (both USA/Canada and ROW) to the current amount of 50M. (should be
much more than that: Consider TTNP receive 8-10% of US sell and now valued
at $100 Million, VNDA will receive worldwide in double digits)
6) Basically no debt, according to Yahoo and some $27 million cash.
So, that gives us:
200M + 200M + 50M + 50M + 50M = 550M | j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 2 总结一下, 有同志PM了我, 问我对于VNDA的看法.
我的看法基本上可以概括如下:
1) 由于partnership已经搞定, 短期内没有噱头了.
2) Biotech最近总体走的不好.
3) VNDA今后的看点在于销售量, 可能要一年, 至少两,三个季度才能看出点端倪, 由于
Novartis自己也有药在市场上, 它对于Fanapt的销售倒底会持什么样的态度, 我猜不出
来. 有兴趣的同志自己可以去查一下Novartis的药的专利到期时间 (2016年).
4) Fanapt的注射版出来之前可以考虑一搞.
转一篇BioWorld上的文章.
Fanapt Comes (Almost) Full Circle
Vanda Inks $465M Novartis Deal, but Acquisition Not off the Table
By Trista Morrison
Five months after the surprise FDA approval of schizophrenia drug Fanapt (
iloperidone), Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. nailed down a partner to launch the
product.
Not surprisingly, that partner is Novartis AG, from which Vanda originally
licensed rights to the drug in 2004. Perhaps more surprising is the fact
that Novartis opted for a U.S. and Canadian commercialization deal rather
than acquiring Vanda outright, as the biotech’s investors had hoped.
Basel, Switzerland-based Novartis AG agreed to pay Rockville, Md.-based
Vanda $200 million up front and as much as $265 million in milestone
payments. One of the milestones is FDA approval of a once-monthly injectable
formulation of Fanapt, designed to ensure better compliance than the twice-
daily pills.
The remaining milestones are sales-based, and Vanda CEO Mihael
Polymeropoulos said during a conference call that they are “highly
reasonable and achievable.”
Vanda also will get royalties, which Polymeropoulos hinted are tiered in the
mid-teens.
Novartis will cover all Fanapt marketing costs in the U.S. and Canada as
well as costs associated with development of the injectable formulation for
those markets.
The big pharma will get royalties on ex-U.S. sales unless it exercises an
option to negotiate for worldwide rights.
Vanda has long maintained that Fanapt has significant potential in Europe,
since Johnson & Johnson’s schizophrenia drug Risperdal Consta (risperidone)
books most of its sales overseas. The fact that Novartis did not acquire
Vanda and did not license overseas rights may indicate the two parties
disagreed on ex-U.S. value.
Vanda executives were not available for comment, but if that’s the case,
Novartis and Vanda may yet come to terms on worldwide rights, paving the way
for a future acquisition. Or if Fanapt succeeds commercially in the U.S.,
Novartis may elect to end its royalty obligations with a buyout.
Investors, however, were apparently hoping for an acquisition sooner rather
than later. They pushed Vanda’s shares (NASDAQ:VNDA) down 41 cents, to
close at $1 1.04 on Tuesday.
For now, the Novartis deal gives Vanda much-needed cash. The biotech had $29
million in its coffers as of June 30, enough to last only until the end of
the year.
Fanapt was developed by Hoechst Marion Roussel (now Sanofi-Aventis Group)
and was licensed to Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc., which later passed the drug
to Novartis, which in turn passed it to Vanda. Vanda had been founded by two
former Novartis executives. (See BioWorld Today, June 10, 2004.)
Vanda previously owed milestone payments and royalties on Fanapt to Novartis
, but those obligations have been cancelled under the new deal. Playing that
card likely gave Novartis a leg-up in Fanapt negotiations, since any other
potential suitor would have had to pay off Vanda and Novartis.
Titan retains an 8 percent to 10 percent royalty stake in Fanapt. The South
San Francisco-based biotech’s shares (PinkSheets:TTNP) rose 30 cents, or 20
percent, to close at $1.79 on Tuesday.
Fanapt’s journey to this point has been anything but smooth.
After licensing Fanapt from Novartis, Vanda proved in Phase III trials that
the drug was superior to placebo and noninferior to Pfizer Inc.’s Geodon (
ziprasidone). The biotech’s stock climbed to $30 per share amid buyout
speculation. Everyone expected approval, but the FDA delivered a
nonapprovable letter asking for additional safety and efficacy work. (See
BioWorld Today, July 29, 2008.)
Vanda didn’t have the money for new trials, so it reanalyzed its data and
resubmitted its approval application – an often-used strategy that almost
never works. The biotech’s shares plunged below $1, and investors pushed
the company to liquidate. But the FDA reversed its decision and approved the
drug, sending Vanda’s stock skyrocketing but creating the immediate need
for a powerful marketing partner that could compete in the competitive
schizophrenia space. (See BioWorld Today, May 8, 2009.)
The $14 billion antipsychotic market includes generic risperidone and
Johnson & Johnson’s follow-on product Invega Sustenna (paliperidone), as
well as Novartis’ own Clozaril (clozapine), Pfizer’s Geodon, Zyprexa (
olanzapine, Eli Lilly & Co.), Abilify (aripiprazole, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co
.) and others. Yet patients frequently switch products, and studies have
found that nearly three-fourths of patients quit their drugs within 18
months due to lack of efficacy or intolerable side effects.
Fanapt, an atypical antipsychotic that binds to dopamine and serotonin
receptors, is aiming to compete on the basis of safety.
Phase III studies showed the drug may have best-inclass tolerability in
terms of side effects such as extrapyramidal symptoms, akathisia rates,
metabolic parameters, somnolence and prolactin levels. |
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