T*****e
发帖数: 315 | 1 菜鸟一只， 当时看有人推荐买了AGNC, 现在发现买的时候差不多是最高点， 现在跌了
快20%，现在怎么办呢， 是都卖了还是捂着？ |
b******y
发帖数: 1684 | 2 别人说买还是卖都是说，你是用自己的钱在赌。
【在 T*****e 的大作中提到】
: 菜鸟一只， 当时看有人推荐买了AGNC, 现在发现买的时候差不多是最高点， 现在跌了
: 快20%，现在怎么办呢， 是都卖了还是捂着？
|
m******g
发帖数: 1103 | |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 4 http://beta.fool.com/equityfinancials/2013/05/22/two-mreits-to-
"One of the major catalysts that are currently in play for mREITs is the Fed
’s accelerated bond buying. The Fed has initiated an accelerated bond
buying with an intention to stimulate the sluggish US economy, particularly
the US housing and the labor markets. While the stimulus efforts are still
delivering their results, profits at mortgage REITs are being crushed
because of it.
The Fed is buying $40 worth of residential mortgage backed securities every
month. These are the RMBS for which any of the government Agencies has
guaranteed the principal and interest payments. The aim of this bond buying
was to bring down the long-term mortgage rates in order to encourage
refinancing and mortgage originations. However, one downside of this bond
buying program is that lower long-term mortgage rates mean lower revenues
for the Agency mortgage REITs."
【在 m******g 的大作中提到】
: 同情一下。这次为什么跌那么狠？
|
m***e
发帖数: 331 | 5 可是最近明明是美联储讨论退出QE4，房贷利率上涨，mREIT的利润应该上升才对啊。
Fed
particularly
every
buying
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: http://beta.fool.com/equityfinancials/2013/05/22/two-mreits-to-
: "One of the major catalysts that are currently in play for mREITs is the Fed
: ’s accelerated bond buying. The Fed has initiated an accelerated bond
: buying with an intention to stimulate the sluggish US economy, particularly
: the US housing and the labor markets. While the stimulus efforts are still
: delivering their results, profits at mortgage REITs are being crushed
: because of it.
: The Fed is buying $40 worth of residential mortgage backed securities every
: month. These are the RMBS for which any of the government Agencies has
: guaranteed the principal and interest payments. The aim of this bond buying
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 6 The key is the interest rate spread between short term and long term. If
short term rate goes up faster than long term, mREIT will suffer more for
this year because their borrow costings will be higher. Only when long term
interest rate goes up quicker than short term, their book values may go up
again.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1462721-american-capital-agency
【在 m***e 的大作中提到】
: 可是最近明明是美联储讨论退出QE4，房贷利率上涨，mREIT的利润应该上升才对啊。
:
: Fed
: particularly
: every
: buying
|
m***e
发帖数: 331 | 7 两房最近彪的很欢，难道他们不受利差收窄的影响？
term
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: The key is the interest rate spread between short term and long term. If
: short term rate goes up faster than long term, mREIT will suffer more for
: this year because their borrow costings will be higher. Only when long term
: interest rate goes up quicker than short term, their book values may go up
: again.
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1462721-american-capital-agency
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 8 The real estate values and loan payment on time are more important for them
because they have the houses not the securities like m-REIT. However, the
stock speculation is very high because they are still owned by the
government. When the "new" GM issued IPO, the old common stock shareholders
got nothing.
【在 m***e 的大作中提到】
: 两房最近彪的很欢，难道他们不受利差收窄的影响？
:
: term
|
a*****s
发帖数: 3643 | |
k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 10 是这样，利率上涨，bad for current book value（mreit公司已hold的大都是
低息贷款，在高息贷款即将大量出现的情况下，这些低息贷款value都跌了）
，不过good for future return。目前市场一看BV跌了，然后mreit一般trade
at BV，所以股价也跌。只要扛过这一段时间，公司把手上的holding换了一茬
之后，return会好起来，而且很可能比现在好得多，BV也会慢慢涨回来。
未来投资mreit最好的时机是利率上涨到一定程度，然后企稳。mreit公司
喜欢稳定，不喜欢利率上上下下。
当然还得看Fed会不会再捣乱，Fed最近几年对mreit很看不顺眼。
【在 m***e 的大作中提到】
: 可是最近明明是美联储讨论退出QE4，房贷利率上涨，mREIT的利润应该上升才对啊。
:
: Fed
: particularly
: every
: buying
|
|
|
s**********6
发帖数: 873 | 11 谢谢，有道理！
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 是这样，利率上涨，bad for current book value（mreit公司已hold的大都是
: 低息贷款，在高息贷款即将大量出现的情况下，这些低息贷款value都跌了）
: ，不过good for future return。目前市场一看BV跌了，然后mreit一般trade
: at BV，所以股价也跌。只要扛过这一段时间，公司把手上的holding换了一茬
: 之后，return会好起来，而且很可能比现在好得多，BV也会慢慢涨回来。
: 未来投资mreit最好的时机是利率上涨到一定程度，然后企稳。mreit公司
: 喜欢稳定，不喜欢利率上上下下。
: 当然还得看Fed会不会再捣乱，Fed最近几年对mreit很看不顺眼。
|
m******g
发帖数: 1103 | 12 Mark
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 是这样，利率上涨，bad for current book value（mreit公司已hold的大都是
: 低息贷款，在高息贷款即将大量出现的情况下，这些低息贷款value都跌了）
: ，不过good for future return。目前市场一看BV跌了，然后mreit一般trade
: at BV，所以股价也跌。只要扛过这一段时间，公司把手上的holding换了一茬
: 之后，return会好起来，而且很可能比现在好得多，BV也会慢慢涨回来。
: 未来投资mreit最好的时机是利率上涨到一定程度，然后企稳。mreit公司
: 喜欢稳定，不喜欢利率上上下下。
: 当然还得看Fed会不会再捣乱，Fed最近几年对mreit很看不顺眼。
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 13 Mreits 是不是在息差低的时候又名增加了杠杆？这样BV下降很快出现浮亏，资本率会
出问题？
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 是这样，利率上涨，bad for current book value（mreit公司已hold的大都是
: 低息贷款，在高息贷款即将大量出现的情况下，这些低息贷款value都跌了）
: ，不过good for future return。目前市场一看BV跌了，然后mreit一般trade
: at BV，所以股价也跌。只要扛过这一段时间，公司把手上的holding换了一茬
: 之后，return会好起来，而且很可能比现在好得多，BV也会慢慢涨回来。
: 未来投资mreit最好的时机是利率上涨到一定程度，然后企稳。mreit公司
: 喜欢稳定，不喜欢利率上上下下。
: 当然还得看Fed会不会再捣乱，Fed最近几年对mreit很看不顺眼。
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 14 This is the best answer to the AGNC problem.
mREIT performs best in a stable interest rate environment. Its income
decrease with higher or lower interest rate.
You have to understand that AGNC holds RMBS security. Although it is backed
up by the government, only the principle is guaranteed. At current low
interest rate environment, AGNC bought those security with a premium, 107
cents for 100 cent RMBS.
When interest goes lower, those security will be bought back at the
principle value by the government agency. This is the prepayment risk.
Current heavy drop in price is however caused by an opposite problem, i.e.,
the prospect that fed will end QE thus increasing interest rate. If the
interest rate is increased, the security value will drop significantly.
Current 30 year yield is 3.5%. AGNC loans have average life of 4.2 years
with leverage about 8. If the interest is increased to 4.5%, the book value
of AGNC will drop 33%. 20% drops priced in increase of interest rate about 0
.6%.
I am very fearful about all mREIT right now. I am very bearish about AGNC
because I believe that mortgage rate will go to 5-6%, which means all old
mREIT will bankrupt. I only consider buy newly started mREIT. I need some
suggestion on this topic.
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 是这样，利率上涨，bad for current book value（mreit公司已hold的大都是
: 低息贷款，在高息贷款即将大量出现的情况下，这些低息贷款value都跌了）
: ，不过good for future return。目前市场一看BV跌了，然后mreit一般trade
: at BV，所以股价也跌。只要扛过这一段时间，公司把手上的holding换了一茬
: 之后，return会好起来，而且很可能比现在好得多，BV也会慢慢涨回来。
: 未来投资mreit最好的时机是利率上涨到一定程度，然后企稳。mreit公司
: 喜欢稳定，不喜欢利率上上下下。
: 当然还得看Fed会不会再捣乱，Fed最近几年对mreit很看不顺眼。
|
s*****t
发帖数: 62 | 15 Nly Has survived 15 years.
I do not think it will bankrupt even the mortage rate increase to 6 percent |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 16 The newest mREIT is EARN, Ellington residential mortgage, IPO price was $20.
backed
,
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: This is the best answer to the AGNC problem.
: mREIT performs best in a stable interest rate environment. Its income
: decrease with higher or lower interest rate.
: You have to understand that AGNC holds RMBS security. Although it is backed
: up by the government, only the principle is guaranteed. At current low
: interest rate environment, AGNC bought those security with a premium, 107
: cents for 100 cent RMBS.
: When interest goes lower, those security will be bought back at the
: principle value by the government agency. This is the prepayment risk.
: Current heavy drop in price is however caused by an opposite problem, i.e.,
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 17 Thank you for recommend EARN. But it is too small. I intend to buy the
leader of a sector. The manager team of a small company is often not
trustworthy.
I am always too fearful when a person should be brave. Maybe it is good
opportunities to buy AGNC in next couple of weeks. I am interested in AGNC
too. I will watch whether it will retest $25. If it holds nicely, I will buy
some to gamble because the market has faith in it at this level. The market
is way more smart to predict interest rate change that I am. |
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 18 Two Harbors (TWO) may be better for large mREIT now because they have non
agency securities to diversify. It also has frequent insider buying recently
. When bond yield is higher, conservative investors will shift some asset
from high dividend stocks to bond. With muni bond 4-6% yield, that's equal
to 7-10% yield before tax for high income and people hit AMT tax in CA or
NYC.
buy
market
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Thank you for recommend EARN. But it is too small. I intend to buy the
: leader of a sector. The manager team of a small company is often not
: trustworthy.
: I am always too fearful when a person should be brave. Maybe it is good
: opportunities to buy AGNC in next couple of weeks. I am interested in AGNC
: too. I will watch whether it will retest $25. If it holds nicely, I will buy
: some to gamble because the market has faith in it at this level. The market
: is way more smart to predict interest rate change that I am.
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 19 This is why I am thinking that the market may be overreacted.
I remember that NLY is buying a company diversifying into nonagency RMBS.
percent
【在 s*****t 的大作中提到】
: Nly Has survived 15 years.
: I do not think it will bankrupt even the mortage rate increase to 6 percent
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 20 As a small fish, I feel that I do not have time to do research on many
companies. I have to focus on a few companies having simple business model,
so you are able to analyze their risks.
AGNC is a pure player in agency RMBS.
It looks like that TWO has much better performance than NLY, which is better
than AGNC in recent year. I am not familiar with nonagency RMBS. It is more
ARM (vs fixed) like loan or has more protection on interest rate hike? So
you can save us some time to educate me.
recently
【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Two Harbors (TWO) may be better for large mREIT now because they have non
: agency securities to diversify. It also has frequent insider buying recently
: . When bond yield is higher, conservative investors will shift some asset
: from high dividend stocks to bond. With muni bond 4-6% yield, that's equal
: to 7-10% yield before tax for high income and people hit AMT tax in CA or
: NYC.
:
: buy
: market
|
|
|
y****i
发帖数: 778 | 21 http://beta.fool.com/equityfinancials/2013/05/22/hybrid-mreit-d
TWO is a hybrid mREIT, the lower credit and subprime debt have much higher
interest rate so the spread narrowing is much less than other mREIT that put
most or all money on agency MBS like AGNC and ARR. That's like in current
muni bond market, the high rating bonds have significant loss this month
because of their low yields, while low rating and high yield muni bonds are
relatively strong because of higher yield, improved economy and tax revenues
. Short term and high yield callable bonds are less risky now because the
refinance costs are higher.
,
better
more
So
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: As a small fish, I feel that I do not have time to do research on many
: companies. I have to focus on a few companies having simple business model,
: so you are able to analyze their risks.
: AGNC is a pure player in agency RMBS.
: It looks like that TWO has much better performance than NLY, which is better
: than AGNC in recent year. I am not familiar with nonagency RMBS. It is more
: ARM (vs fixed) like loan or has more protection on interest rate hike? So
: you can save us some time to educate me.
:
: recently
|
P**********m
发帖数: 213 | |
k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 23 TWO的兴趣很广泛，连Single family house生意都有涉猎，手上有两千多个
SFH出租。所以比AGNC更diversify。但是以前盈利不如AGNC，不过比AGNC
安全点。
,
better
more
So
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: As a small fish, I feel that I do not have time to do research on many
: companies. I have to focus on a few companies having simple business model,
: so you are able to analyze their risks.
: AGNC is a pure player in agency RMBS.
: It looks like that TWO has much better performance than NLY, which is better
: than AGNC in recent year. I am not familiar with nonagency RMBS. It is more
: ARM (vs fixed) like loan or has more protection on interest rate hike? So
: you can save us some time to educate me.
:
: recently
|
c****y
发帖数: 3592 | 24 但是QE降低利率,mreit手里的mbs不应该价格上涨么？ |
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 25 I am not an expert. But in my 2 cents analysis, current price just reflects
the reduced book value of AGNC. It is in fair value but not a bargin. You
could buy some not all at once. AGNC can go lower and you have to watch 30
year mortgage rate such as FNMA 3.0.
I am hesitant to buy because I am worried about spiking of interest rate,
which is very bad to AGNC's book value. 10 year treasury rate was increased
from 1.6% to 2.2% in the past month and it is possible that the rate go to 3
% in another month. Then AGNC will be around $18.
【在 P**********m 的大作中提到】
: 高人指点,现在可以逐步买点吗?
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 26 It is interesting. Do you know how TWO finance their debt? Short term or
long term loan? I own multiple family (1-4) rentals and financed with
conventional 30 year mortgage with leverage of 4, and the margin is very
small. For similar kind investment, I am looking at Vanguard REIT Index ETF
(VNQ).
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: TWO的兴趣很广泛，连Single family house生意都有涉猎，手上有两千多个
: SFH出租。所以比AGNC更diversify。但是以前盈利不如AGNC，不过比AGNC
: 安全点。
:
: ,
: better
: more
: So
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 27 Yes this is right and this happened in the previous 3 months.
But FED is ending (tapering to be more accurate) QE.
RMBS price dropped. FMNA 3.5 dropped from 106.5 to 103.
This is why AGNC and others lost so much value.
Those companies are in the smaller book value before QE.
QE forces AGNC to buy overpriced RMBS
【在 c****y 的大作中提到】
: 但是QE降低利率,mreit手里的mbs不应该价格上涨么？
|
c****y
发帖数: 3592 | 28 你看AGNC从QE3去年11月就开始一直跌，所以打方向QE还是不利于mreit.mbs价格上涨抵
消不了QE的负面影响，这是我的理解。所以如果QE结束，应该对mreit是利好啊
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Yes this is right and this happened in the previous 3 months.
: But FED is ending (tapering to be more accurate) QE.
: RMBS price dropped. FMNA 3.5 dropped from 106.5 to 103.
: This is why AGNC and others lost so much value.
: Those companies are in the smaller book value before QE.
: QE forces AGNC to buy overpriced RMBS
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 29 No. When QE started last Nov, net asset value of AGNC increased from $30 to
$33 in the past six months, in addition to $2.5 dividend. But right now AGNC
has net asset around $24.5 with current RMBS price. In the end, QE is bad
for all mREIT companies.
【在 c****y 的大作中提到】
: 你看AGNC从QE3去年11月就开始一直跌，所以打方向QE还是不利于mreit.mbs价格上涨抵
: 消不了QE的负面影响，这是我的理解。所以如果QE结束，应该对mreit是利好啊
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 30 CMO 这个不错，是ARM的公司，业绩和利率关系不大。
不知道那些可以影响他的收益。 |
|
|
r*******y
发帖数: 290 | 31 ARM still has rate risk, but the duration is generally shorter than 30y
e.g., 5y arm duration is generally 3 years, about 40% of 30yr
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: CMO 这个不错，是ARM的公司，业绩和利率关系不大。
: 不知道那些可以影响他的收益。
|
m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 32 所有fixed rate mortgage backed的地产股多跌成死了。
goldman saches估计10年利率2014 到3%, 2015 年到4%。
AGNC, NLY太危险了。
不知你卖了吗？
【在 T*****e 的大作中提到】
: 菜鸟一只， 当时看有人推荐买了AGNC, 现在发现买的时候差不多是最高点， 现在跌了
: 快20%，现在怎么办呢， 是都卖了还是捂着？
|
