n**f
发帖数: 121 | 1 What is the relationship between CAPEX and revenue (or operating income) of
a firm?
I am new to the area of corporate finance and was asked to do some
statistical / econometrical analysis on it.
conceptually I thought there must be some relationship: CAPEX is what you
spend to maintain the company in a reasonable shape, and eventually generate
enough revenue / OI. But when I did a little googling I could not find much
discussion from econometrical standpoint.
Any book, research name, or paper is... 阅读全帖 |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 2 INTC ER takeaway, Q4 2012
ER的number - 很差！PC Revenue -3%; Server/Data Center +6%, 才6%! 以前都是20%
+；
Number很差，但是更糟糕的是，INTC的Capex，Foundry计划
INTC的Capex预期13B，比去年多了2B，投资于14nm - 更加先进的工艺。要知道现在
INTC Fab开工率50%都不到，20nm产能今年就会上，还在投资14nm，这么大的产能生产
什么？
Stanford Berstein's Stacy Rasgon就很不客气的问，PC需求不旺，Server一年就是
16M Chip，也就是一个Fab的产能 (INTC有10+ Fab?) , 手机业务很少, 就算你们
Tablet能抢下市场，可是Atom die size比laptop cpu小很多，到底是什么growth
driver behind capex hike?
更重要的一点是折旧，目前INTC的折旧是1.7B/yr，和去年持平。INTC是从2010/11年开
始大幅增长Capex(从6-8B增加到10-12B... 阅读全帖 |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 3 INTC ER takeaway, Q4 2012
ER的number - 很差！PC Revenue -3%; Server/Data Center +6%, 才6%! 以前都是20%
+；
Number很差，但是更糟糕的是，INTC的Capex，Foundry计划
INTC的Capex预期13B，比去年多了2B，投资于14nm - 更加先进的工艺。要知道现在
INTC Fab开工率50%都不到，20nm产能今年就会上，还在投资14nm，这么大的产能生产
什么？
Stanford Berstein's Stacy Rasgon就很不客气的问，PC需求不旺，Server一年就是
16M Chip，也就是一个Fab的产能 (INTC有10+ Fab?) , 手机业务很少, 就算你们
Tablet能抢下市场，可是Atom die size比laptop cpu小很多，到底是什么growth
driver behind capex hike?
更重要的一点是折旧，目前INTC的折旧是1.7B/yr，和去年持平。INTC是从2010/11年开
始大幅增长Capex(从6-8B增加到10-12B... 阅读全帖 |
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a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 4 微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
Americas : Market Intelligence – Morning Update
by Chris Hussey
Published March 25, 2014
Stocks in Asia were directionless Tuesday, trading in a relative news vacuum
as investors appear to be content to coast through the end of March. In
Europe this morning, however, equities are definitively higher although you
have to squint to find a reason for the reversal of yesterday's more bearish
tone. Overall, perhaps the daily trading gyrations of individual markets
are telling us l... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 5 "Einhorn then moved onto criticizing the company: Poor transparency. Doesn’
t even report lbs shipped, k-cup units, or precise Keurig brewers units.
GMCR has cut their amount disclosure over time, which is what companies
usually do when metrics are deteriorating."
Einhorn discusses in 2008 GMCR published Total Pounds shipped, as well as
pounds shipped per channel. He indicates that in 3Q11 this ceased to be
reported.
He claims in 2008 units were rounded to the nearest thousand, and now 3Q11,
uni... 阅读全帖 |
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D**s
发帖数: 6361 | 7 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: profun (profun), 信区: USANews
标 题: 说一些美国经济数据来侧面看危机后美国中产生活
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 24 11:30:13 2016, 美东)
抛开媒体的宣传，刚刚看了一些基本工业数据供大家参考
1. S&P absolute CAPEX - 505家公司资本项开支，从77年开始到去年底，基本以每年5
.3%的速度增长，从09年以后，增速有较大反弹，现在绝对值已经超过了历史最高点，
达到将近一年700 billion USD。通常来讲，销售和资本项开始强烈正相关，说明销售
数据也非常好。当然这是美国领头的大公司。大家看看股市就知道了
2.与此印证的还有另一个有意思的数据，就是美国的IPI, - 衡量的是所有美国境内的
工业产值指数 （https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO）这个数据最值得关注
的是，美国第一次自经济危机以来IPI没有恢复到经济危机前的水平。历史上，在经济
危机后60-100 months,IPI都达到了经济... 阅读全帖 |
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x****6
发帖数: 4339 | 8 发信人: profun (profun), 信区: USANews
标 题: 说一些美国经济数据来侧面看危机后美国中产生活
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 24 11:30:13 2016, 美东)
抛开媒体的宣传，刚刚看了一些基本工业数据供大家参考
1. S&P absolute CAPEX - 505家公司资本项开支，从77年开始到去年底，基本以每年5
.3%的速度增长，从09年以后，增速有较大反弹，现在绝对值已经超过了历史最高点，
达到将近一年700 billion USD。通常来讲，销售和资本项开始强烈正相关，说明销售
数据也非常好。当然这是美国领头的大公司。大家看看股市就知道了
2.与此印证的还有另一个有意思的数据，就是美国的IPI, - 衡量的是所有美国境内的
工业产值指数 （https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO）这个数据最值得关注
的是，美国第一次自经济危机以来IPI没有恢复到经济危机前的水平。历史上，在经济
危机后60-100 months,IPI都达到了经济危机前的1.2甚至1.6倍（1953年数据），而... 阅读全帖 |
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p****n
发帖数: 402 | 9 抛开媒体的宣传，刚刚看了一些基本工业数据供大家参考
1. S&P absolute CAPEX - 505家公司资本项开支，从77年开始到去年底，基本以每年5
.3%的速度增长，从09年以后，增速有较大反弹，现在绝对值已经超过了历史最高点，
达到将近一年700 billion USD。通常来讲，销售和资本项开始强烈正相关，说明销售
数据也非常好。当然这是美国领头的大公司。大家看看股市就知道了
2.与此印证的还有另一个有意思的数据，就是美国的IPI, - 衡量的是所有美国境内的
工业产值指数 （https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO）这个数据最值得关注
的是，美国第一次自经济危机以来IPI没有恢复到经济危机前的水平。历史上，在经济
危机后60-100 months,IPI都达到了经济危机前的1.2甚至1.6倍（1953年数据），而现
在美国IPI是07 DEC （危机开始时）的90%左右
3. 美联储的数据，美国全行业产能利用率，从危机后的水平来看，基本在67年以来的
历史最低点，目前在75%左右，远低于往年危机后85%的平均水平。
几个数据一... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 10 I don't trust SOL completely, $170-180M capex for a 5000MT was shocking to
me. But if you look at GCL's plan, that's ￥17.7B CNY for 44000MT poly
capacity plus 3GW of wafer capacity. If you take $300M/GW for the wafer, it'
s about $400M for 10000MT of poly, close to SOL's claim. Combining these
information, I think there is some realistic way to significantly lower the
CAPEX, which is starting to be implemented right now.
No, SOL will not get their money back in 7 months. $100/kg is at the high
e... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****l
发帖数: 161 | 11 （2）.初级站友: 短线进阶
资金: $25k-$50k （Nov 2010 – March 2011）
BKM 0.2: EMA-RSI买低杀高
BKM 0.3: 简单供求因果分析
Risk Mitigation: liquid stock, buy only at RSI<40% and short only at RSI>80%
成果: 操作8只股票，一只失手；平均每笔trade收益 8%, Overall gain ~15%
Tickers: DO, ASML, NVLS, JDSU,SBUX,TIBX, PALL, FFIV
阅读材料:
1. How to make money in stocks: William O’Neil
2. Beating the street, Peter Lynch
第一年虽然战果不错，运气占了很大部分。这个阶段开始放眼更大范围，“发现”
了NFLX, FFIV和TZOO，才发现我的INTC是多么可怜。另外觉得第一年买入卖出没有很好
的体系。下定决心提高短线的操作能力。
在Yahoo Fina... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****l
发帖数: 161 | 12 谢谢小母牛双黄包，今天一气写完三集了。欢迎大家指导，讨论，图例在跟贴上。
(1): 新手上路
资金: $4k-$10k (Oct. 2009 – Nov. 2010)
BKM 0.1: 宁可错过, 不可错了；买低卖高, 有赚就好
Risk Mitigation: Buy only Blue Chip stock and Index ETF
成果: 20多笔trades ，100% profitable ,平均每笔trade收益 5.54%, Overall
gain > 50%
Tickers: INTC, SCHA, IJK
阅读材料:
1. 不哭教条 1-6: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t2/Stock/31817193.html
2. The intelligent Investor by Graham
首先是迈出第一步，对我来说有点困难： 不习惯做自己每把握的事；也没有看到
谁炒股一夜暴富的”励志”故事。工作第一年还很忙，虽然有心投入股市，却没有时间
迈出第一步。 说来算是福气，躲过了2008年的market ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****l
发帖数: 161 | 13 （2）.初级站友: 短线进阶
资金: $25k-$50k （Nov 2010 – March 2011）
BKM 0.2: EMA-RSI买低杀高
BKM 0.3: 简单供求因果分析
Risk Mitigation: liquid stock, buy only at RSI<40% and short only at RSI>80%
成果: 操作8只股票，一只失手；平均每笔trade收益 8%, Overall gain ~15%
Tickers: DO, ASML, NVLS, JDSU,SBUX,TIBX, PALL, FFIV
阅读材料:
1. How to make money in stocks: William O’Neil
2. Beating the street, Peter Lynch
第一年虽然战果不错，运气占了很大部分。这个阶段开始放眼更大范围，“发现”
了NFLX, FFIV和TZOO，才发现我的INTC是多么可怜。另外觉得第一年买入卖出没有很好
的体系。下定决心提高短线的操作能力。
在Yahoo Fina... 阅读全帖 |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 14 1. Phone, INTC到目前为止非常的差，2年之内我看也没戏。从2013 outlook看，几乎
是忽略不计。两年前他买了IFX的wireless chip department. 到现在LTE产品不过关。
关键是price，别人都是15-20，他atom还卖40。我相信这个是atom手机消声灭迹的主要
原因。说是android support，推出moto手机还闹了个chrome不支持的大笑话。
2. 我的看法和你一样，tablet市场远大于PC，可能是3:1，可是Intel能拿到多少？关
键还是价格，主流arm都是sub $20. 和手机一样。
3. 说道价格，不得不提这个Capex，这个是Analyst非常关心的问题，因为capex是分几
年折旧。过去2年，加上2013年，INTC大幅提高了Capex，早晚要通过折旧体现到profit
margin上的。如果intel降价，赶上折旧，就是账面profit margin降低。
的。 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 15 Capital Expenditure. Part of the CapEX was used to acquire land and booked
as at-cost asset. That is why you never see CapEX in the quarterly report
and that is why you see the 5.5B cash flow. It is debatable in terms of
accounting. They were very aggressive early days using CapEX to acquire
asset without having impact on earning. But when they sell assets, they will
not be booked as revenue either, only reducing book/asset value. That is
why they have the "cheapest" land on the book compare to ... 阅读全帖 |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 16 negative energy plenty
What not to like:
1 State owned and runned, country risk
2 Organized union, collective bargaining agreement, difficult to control
cost
3 State controlled retail and gas price, PBR have to import to subsidize
the domestic demand at low price
4 Reals depreciation
5 Very aggressive Capex plan in the next several years, Capex outpace the
operating cash flow by wild margin ($237 billion five-year investment plan)
$47 Bn per year while operating cash flow highest ... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 17 在油价85时，一切照旧，CapEX加分红正好够。
油价80，要去掉分红，CapEX才够。或者CapEX减少。
现在看来油价会在78到85之间，会有问题，但生存是可以的。
Q3平均90,还能挣一点. Q4是要亏钱的，Asset Sale很重要。
Rim 是对的，5刀以下可以建仓。 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 18 在油价85时，一切照旧，CapEX加分红正好够。
油价80，要去掉分红，CapEX才够。或者CapEX减少。
现在看来油价会在78到85之间，会有问题，但生存是可以的。
Q3平均90,还能挣一点. Q4是要亏钱的，Asset Sale很重要。
Rim 是对的，5刀以下可以建仓。 |
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f*******e
发帖数: 5277 | 19 如题所述，此文的目的虽然是比较股市投机与投资，但用的例子是TSLA。对这个公司大
家看法极端分化的比较厉害，我是TSLA长线牛，观点不免会被立场影响，不喜误入。
首先确定一下，你是想投资TSLA，还是投机TSLA。
如果是投机，那我没什么好的意见和建议，TA可能是主要工具，我本人TA水平不高。不
过由于TSLA是个新闻驱动很厉害的股票，所以你还得盯着它的一举一动，知道近期会有
什么事件可能造成什么影响，来助力你的TA分析。比如九月底的X launch，算是一直给
TSLA吊着一口气的事件。所以，你如果短期投机TSLA，也要对其FA有一定了解，尤其是
事件型的FA，否则很容易事倍功半。综上，我觉得TSLA不是个特别好的投机对象，太麻
烦了，同样的TA功力，去做三倍大盘指数可能更合适。
如果是投资，那么搞清楚几点问题：
1. 投资时间多长？我觉得3年以内的话就还是算了吧，这个价格太高了，腰斩后也难说
有什么投资价值，把握好谷峰谷底的话能赚不少钱，但那是投机。不过如果看3年以后
的话
2. 3年以后公司的主要收入来自哪里？是Model S么？是Model X么？都不是。是Model
3和电池... 阅读全帖 |
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m*******v
发帖数: 294 | 20 http://www.commodities-now.com/news/power-and-energy/20511-mark
London, 19 January 2016
Has the market over-reacted to the Iran sanction lift?
“Sanctions placed on Iranian oil exports by the US and five other countries
were lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency found the country
to be compliant with its nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (the permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council–the United States, the
United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China plus Germany), plus th... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 21 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: brightl (无边浪子), 信区: Stock
标 题: 我的新手上路及进阶
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat May 14 02:36:21 2011, 美东)
谢谢小母牛双黄包，今天一气写完三集了。欢迎大家指导，讨论，图例在跟贴上。
(1): 新手上路
资金: $4k-$10k (Oct. 2009 – Nov. 2010)
BKM 0.1: 宁可错过, 不可错了；买低卖高, 有赚就好
Risk Mitigation: Buy only Blue Chip stock and Index ETF
成果: 20多笔trades ，100% profitable ,平均每笔trade收益 5.54%, Overall
gain > 50%
Tickers: INTC, SCHA, IJK
阅读材料:
1. 不哭教条 1-6: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t2/Stock/31817193.html
2. The intelligent Investor by Gra... 阅读全帖 |
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B*********e
发帖数: 909 | 22 here is just my 2 cents, pure speculation:
The IC industry capex peaked around 2007-2008 and most of them are related
to new FABs. There were almost no new FABs built up last year, which is not
good for AMAT's business. However, sooner or later, IC needs new FAB and
also replacements for old FABs. This year, most of them such as TSMC and
Samsung are going to significantly increase their CAPEX. Therefore, I still
hold this position and will hold it for a long time the same way as INTC
which I |
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L*****3
发帖数: 922 | 23 revenue在涨要看哪涨。还有是不是和capex相关，新店开得多capex肯定涨，但单店利
润肯定得降。
BB经营模式也在拓展，早先就开始做appliance了。 |
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g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 24 I understand.
Now that you like dividends, VZ/T are not good in the long run. Take a look
at MO, which has been sold off recently. All these are dividend stocks. The
difference is that VZ/T have huge liability for their entitlement programs
and require large % of CapEx to stay competitive. Big CapEx is a turn-off
for this kind of company. Peter Lynch thinks so, and I think it makes good
sense.
like |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 25 Basically, I used last quarter's number as a reference. In theory, when the
sales is going up, the net earning as a percentage of sale should go up.
LDK expected the revenue was around 3.5-3.7 billion for this year, used 18%
net profit from last quarter and middle sales number 3.6 billion dollar, the
profit before tax and interest should be around 648 million dollar for this
year.
Interest expense is around 90 Million dollar so the profit before tax is
around 550 million. and use 15% tax rate, t... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 26 If you are a serious solar investor, I'd like to share my 2 cents.
I notice that the CAPEX requirement for a poly plant has come down
dramatically recently which makes the value of LDK's poly plant dramatically
overvalued on its book.
LDK carries some $2B debt for its 16000MT poly plant (which is still not at
full capacity yet), while SOL and GCL have implied in their report that a
similar plant can be built for $600-700M in a year nowadays.
It's true that LDK is enjoying a golden year right now... 阅读全帖 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 27 泰然处之，别被花街忽有了就是了。
http://seekingalpha.com/article/260320-nokia-presents-rewarding
Investors have all but left Nokia (NOK) for dead. The shares recently
plumbed to new lows, hitting $7.73. Shares rebounded last week, closing
Friday at $8.35. By the looks of the stock performance you would think Nokia
can't sell a single phone. It was not too many years ago that Nokia made
the most popular phones.
Investor sentiment on the stock has reached ultimate pessimism. Nokia
continues to lose share to Apple... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 28 Solar will have a bright future, but sadly this industry does not reward
early investors.
Just three years ago it takes around $1.5/W to build a poly-wafer production
facility, but nowadays every newcomer like JKS can build for less than $0.5
/W, and very few of the early movers were able to make enough money during
the three years to cover the $1.0/W CAPEX they've overpaid.
The key to be the winner is to catch market boom oppurtunities without
making too much CAPEX commitment, so that you have ... 阅读全帖 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 29 capex通常是fixed assets depreciation period不会只有一年，net income里面已经
包括depreciation. negative retained earning和capex没关系.通常是dividend发太
多or mark to market unrealized loss |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 Chinook 俱乐部 】
发信人: vankie (新浪微博@洛城王二), 信区: Chinook
标 题: 今天闲着没事儿，玩玩AAPL估值
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Apr 24 18:27:10 2012, 美东)
I. FCFF倍数法。苹果没有长期债务，所以直接用CFO-Net CAPEX作为free cash flow,
算equity倍数。
假设60%的yoy free cash flow growth（远低于刚公布的Q2和之前Q1的90%左右业绩增
长率）, 今年的fcf也会有$55B（去年是大约$35B)，也就是说522B的市值除去不参与运
营的excessive cash 100B, 目前的估值只有7倍的forward fcf。高一点估，假设60B的
2012现金流，那么800块钱的目标价也都不是太高了。
II. 现金流折算。again，没有财务杠杆，所以直接用FCFF作为equity cash flow的替
代。
1，假设cost of equiqyt是15%（超级大盘权重股，beta接近于1）
2，去年全年free cash ... 阅读全帖 |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 31
你觉得AMD能把一个OEM大厂喂饱吗？像HP，DELL，或者Acer，Leveno这样级别的。那些
PC大厂没有一个敢和INTC决裂，全转AMD的，历史上INTC曾经有过和AMD同期产品相比不
佳的现象，但是还是卖的出去，保持现金流，一个tick-tuck周期就回来了。关键就是
产能。这个你找个在PC行业做过10年以上的人问问，就知道对不对了。
当然是INTC最好，可那都是拿capex砸出来的，一年10B的capex，你算没算过Intel一年
出多少课芯片，平均到每颗是多少钱？人家一颗A6/S4才卖20-30块钱，你按照那个die
size比一下i3/i5，就知道了, 为什么pc行业的人那么恨intel了。
算出来，记得update一下 |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 32 no.no. 你miss了很重要的一点，INTC的Capex，他引以自豪的process工艺，什么20nm/
14nm，3D gate啊，领先对手2-4年，是用每年10B的capex砸出来的，是要摊派到每年
400M+颗的CPU上的。要是总量少了1亿颗芯片，你可以想象会是多么严重的问题。
上个Qtr，INTC已经有了32nm产能过剩的问题了，因此关闭了一些老的生产线。具体的
我也不是很明白，不过我的理解intel的32nm相当于tsmc的28nm，那个时候tsmc的28nm
量产还有问题哪，人家开始shutdown了。所以我觉得intel这个model有大问题。 |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 33 no.no. 你miss了很重要的一点，INTC的Capex，他引以自豪的process工艺，什么20nm/
14nm，3D gate啊，领先对手2-4年，是用每年10B的capex砸出来的，是要摊派到每年
400M+颗的CPU上的。要是总量少了1亿颗芯片，你可以想象会是多么严重的问题。
上个Qtr，INTC已经有了32nm产能过剩的问题了，因此关闭了一些老的生产线。具体的
我也不是很明白，不过我的理解intel的32nm相当于tsmc的28nm，那个时候tsmc的28nm
量产还有问题哪，人家开始shutdown了。所以我觉得intel这个model有大问题。 |
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x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 34 Capex怎么能理解成折旧呢？
折旧是不可预算的。
capex是公司的invest，当然也不能理解成cost，虽然算的时候可以算成cost。
折旧可以按照一个固定的比率来。英文是depreciation才比较合理。 |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 35 Intel是打赢了AMD, Sun(Sparc), IBM(PowerPC), DEC, HP，原因是他的量大，因为x86
架构垄断，80%的PC都是他的，所以上先进工艺，bring down cost。现在不一样了，人
家ARM量比它还大，Intel用老办法就不行了。
atom已经是intel margin最低的，而且向来是最后上新工艺的，再降价就不赚钱了。
按die size算，3个atom可能还顶不上一个i3哪，咋能满足？
生产成本是降低，但是翻新的capex，折旧计入成本的，
这个intel capex问题，我在pda版/古版说了很多，总之 intel biz model was cost
effective when it dominates the pc market. but not now. |
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s******v
发帖数: 4495 | 36 jnpr er yesterday. strong words on the sp capex environment and stablized
enterprise. the ceo retirement is very surprising, which caused the sudden
drop in yesterday ah.
but 1 point is confirmed, the telecom capex trend is turned around and now
it is the beginning of a cycle. |
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j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 37 盘后$6.22没买JCP，看完ER，要买的时候，股价已经至$6.9了，苦P啊
后面估计要有一批analysts upgrade了。Seekingalpha 的死熊elephant估计又要忙着
出空文了
Analysts fiscal 2014 estimate E/P -$3.07, 根据CC,今年可以实现positive free
cash flow.
因为capex在压缩，最粗的算法D&A 一年$600MM 减去$300MM capex,0 effective tax
rate. 2014的earning/share 是-$300/300mm shares= -$1 per share.
现在的股价是price in 了2014要清算的价格。
Inventory比较多，但CC上说了，inventory 转变已经完成，今天inventory可以转化为
现金，提供positive cash flow. |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 38 现在Energy个人觉得不买sector ETF 或是类似的。在crude 底出来之前，energy是一
个stock picking market。E&P sector 整体是loss, 个股不是。所以我说只能考虑买
high quality E&P names，buy on weakness （最好是Permian basin /Eagle Ford
names， capex efficiency, good drilling acre quality, deep inventory,
strong liquidity/balance sheet) 只有那些股票是禁的住低油价考验的。比如 FANG
是 SMID cap Permian basin 最高质量的公司之一，YTD +15% vs SPX。average high
quality E&P stock return YTD 差不多 7-9% (当然和板上很多大牛百分之几十几百的
收益不能比）。从TA上看，这类的个股基本上底已经有了。
因为crude 的底在哪 什么时候反弹 目前没人能确定，很多crappy E&P 股票还是... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****3
发帖数: 1331 | 39 From March 25 Oppenheimer analyst report:
"Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit came out with his views on Chesapeake
Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK), following the news that the company reduced
its 2015 capital budget to $3.5-$4B, $500M under previous guidance. The
analyst rates the stock an Outperform with a $22 price target, which implies
an upside of 54% from current levels.
Gheit noted, "Based on new guidance and current strip prices, we trim '15E
EPS to -$0.77 from -$0.71 and expect operating cas... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****3
发帖数: 1331 | 40 发信人: park123 (虎视眈眈), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 炒UGAZ约等于赌博（高风险，最终接近零）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 11 19:03:25 2015, 美东)
From March 25 Oppenheimer analyst report:
"Oppenheimer analyst Fadel Gheit came out with his views on Chesapeake
Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK), following the news that the company reduced
its 2015 capital budget to $3.5-$4B, $500M under previous guidance. The
analyst rates the stock an Outperform with a $22 price target, which implies
an upside of 54% from current levels.
Gheit noted, "Ba... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********r
发帖数: 58 | 41 转帖注明出处：油气投资调查，微信公众号：profitinoilgas
扒一扒“最牛”国际石油巨头道达尔的真实股东回报(上)
2016-04-18 油气君 油气投资调查
定位专业油气投资粉丝群，内容覆盖油气价格深度解读，油气资产端以及境外二级市场
端的投资和交易。本订阅号全为原创。作者油气君，油气勘探开发美国名校博士，任职
于美国顶尖油气勘探开发和投资公司（公司历史超过50年，油气君现为公司唯一华人）
。油气君正在负责和已经完成的油气资产端投资总额约10亿美金，二级市场端参与投资
和交易的标的约200个。先后向数位赴美访问的中央委员以及十多位国家各能源相关机
构负责人介绍北美油气技术和投资回报特点，并且受邀在2015年联合国南南合作可持续
发展高级别论坛发表有关油气投资的主题演讲。
广告，投资等商务合作请加个人微信：oilandgasman，请说明合作来意。
(市场参与者不要忘记查看本文最后的“先睹为快”栏目)
在油价连续暴跌的过程中，国际石油巨头们往往很轻易地被市场认为其拥有的
上下游垂直一体化，相比只侧重上游勘探开发的独立石油公司，能够更... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********r
发帖数: 58 | 42 本文系转帖——微信公众号：油气投资调查
50美金油价的神奇魔法（独家解读油气资本市场）
2016-04-30 油气君 油气投资调查
(市场参与者不要忘记查看本文最后的“先睹为快”栏目)
近日，油气君收到的问题中较为普遍的一个就是油价会不会涨到50美金/桶。说实话，
油气君自认为还没有能力回答这个问题，因为实际的市场交易在任何时候都有突破预期
的可能性，但是油气君可以和各位投资者聊聊油价涨到50美金时在油气资本市场上有较
大可能会出现哪些连锁反应。油气君称之为：50美金油价的神器魔法。
如果近月(Near Month) 油价涨到50美金/桶，那么从期货的升水（Contango）曲线来看
，3 – 6个月的原油期货价格应该在52 – 54美金左右，6 -24个月的原油期货价格比
较可能在53 – 56区间(不排除油价一路上涨过程中油气公司在远端加仓套期保值造成
contango曲线趋平)。在这样的价格环境下，油气君将会在本文中从油气运营和油气投
资并购的角度有针对性地进行解读。
对于北美油气厂商运营：
以美国页岩油气巨头先锋石油公司(Pi... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 43 Demand is going up at the rate of 1% a year. Supply/demand will be balanced
in 2017 even without OPEC cut. Starting 2018, demand will be more than
supply. If oversupply by 2% can cause 60% drop in price, supply shortage by
2% can do the same thing. Oil price at $200 in 2020 is a realistic dream.
US shale gas produces only 8M barrels. Even at 15% yoy gain, it will
increase by 1.2M barrels a year. (Honestly speaking it is not that easy to
maintain 15% YOY). However, conventional oil decay in this ... 阅读全帖 |
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a*******g
发帖数: 3500 | 44 摘录了几个重点
Inventory ended at $839 million compared to $751 million at year end in
support of the ramp of new products and increased semi-custom SoC sales in
the second quarter. (新gpu cpu 游戏机cpu 使库存提高)
The principal debt amount was $1.73 billion, down $34 million from the prior
quarter as a result of debt reduction actions. （削减了34米的债务）
CapEx to be approximately $140 million, including the capitalization of
production mask sets beginning in Q1 2017.（新产品的掩模支出增加了资本支出，
包括7nm的掩模支出？apu的掩模支出？）
I think the... 阅读全帖 |
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M********3
发帖数: 309 | 45 Look at the following comparison between 777-200LR and 787-8.
Model, 2011 average price, seats
777-200LR, $275.8M, ~270
787-8, $193.5M, 242
There will be significantly smaller number of passengers on direct flights
from Houston/Dallas to Shanghai/Peking than on those from LAX/SFO/ORD to PVG
/PEK. The 777s are the main force serving these routes, in a profitable
manner.
In order to have a profitable route, either yields have to be high or costs
(capex/opex) have to be low. With ~$80M lower ca... 阅读全帖 |
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