p*****o
发帖数: 1285 | 1 如果Fed 持续QE政策，现在把美元换成人民币（或者其他更流通的货币），然后存CD，
到期之后再换回美元。
Fed 的 QE 会把通胀出口到其他出口型国家（比如中国），所以中国政府要么加息抑制
通胀，要么升值人民币限制出口。无论如何，钱换成人民币以后至少能有和国内通胀率
一样的收益。这样做岂不是没什么风险的投资？但根据经济学原理，没有风险的投资不
存在。哪位说说问题在哪里？ |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 I don't understand how CD can give you 和国内通胀率一样的收益.
Besides, if you put money in CD, 加息 has nothing to do with you.
If you only exchange USD to RMB and stay with RMB, the risk is Chinese
government will neither hike interest rate and nor let RMB appreciate
(or at least appreciate very slowly). That's what they have done in
the last few years. The result, of course, is massive inflation.
The right way to do it is to exchange USD to RMB and then invest in
something that can catch inflation in China, then it's *almost* 稳赚
不赔. That's part of the reason of the booming real estate price.
However, as long as you have to 'invest', risk comes in.
【在 p*****o 的大作中提到】
: 如果Fed 持续QE政策，现在把美元换成人民币（或者其他更流通的货币），然后存CD，
: 到期之后再换回美元。
: Fed 的 QE 会把通胀出口到其他出口型国家（比如中国），所以中国政府要么加息抑制
: 通胀，要么升值人民币限制出口。无论如何，钱换成人民币以后至少能有和国内通胀率
: 一样的收益。这样做岂不是没什么风险的投资？但根据经济学原理，没有风险的投资不
: 存在。哪位说说问题在哪里？
|
h********8
发帖数: 7355 | 3 中国也不傻，正堵热钱呢， 每人每年只能接受５w美刀。 |
p*****o
发帖数: 1285 | 4 ok, CD is a wrong choice. I was thinking about something like the money
market account.
About the return of the inflation rate, my reasoning is that even for a
stagnant market, the sum of RMB appreaciation rate and interest rate
increase should be nearly the same as the inflation rate caused by a weak
USD. I don't have mathematic equations to back this, though.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I don't understand how CD can give you 和国内通胀率一样的收益.
: Besides, if you put money in CD, 加息 has nothing to do with you.
: If you only exchange USD to RMB and stay with RMB, the risk is Chinese
: government will neither hike interest rate and nor let RMB appreciate
: (or at least appreciate very slowly). That's what they have done in
: the last few years. The result, of course, is massive inflation.
: The right way to do it is to exchange USD to RMB and then invest in
: something that can catch inflation in China, then it's *almost* 稳赚
: 不赔. That's part of the reason of the booming real estate price.
: However, as long as you have to 'invest', risk comes in.
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 5 it certainly will lose less purchasing power than the case if you
hold USD cash
but it may not catch the inflation rate, in another word, you would still
lose purchasing power, just lose less than holding the green papers
so it's hard to say it's a sure win
【在 p*****o 的大作中提到】
: ok, CD is a wrong choice. I was thinking about something like the money
: market account.
: About the return of the inflation rate, my reasoning is that even for a
: stagnant market, the sum of RMB appreaciation rate and interest rate
: increase should be nearly the same as the inflation rate caused by a weak
: USD. I don't have mathematic equations to back this, though.
|
s**********d
发帖数: 36899 | 6 风险就是
1，是否继续QE?
2, RMB是否一定升值？
3，跟国内通胀率没有关系。 |
p*****o
发帖数: 1285 | 7 You are absolutely right, and this is the part which I got wrong. I've
thought 赚 as to increase in USD, while it should be increase in purchase
power.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it certainly will lose less purchasing power than the case if you
: hold USD cash
: but it may not catch the inflation rate, in another word, you would still
: lose purchasing power, just lose less than holding the green papers
: so it's hard to say it's a sure win
|
k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 8 最大的风险是RMB急速贬值，中国历史上所有发行过的纸币，自宋朝开始，唯一结果都
是迅速贬值，恶性贬值，最后一文不值，宋元明清民国无一例外。我不知道RMB是否能
例外，不过按这个势头看起来，可能不会例外，实际上tg的发行的钞票已经恶性贬值到
几乎一文不值两次了，一次是解放前的，一次是建国初的旧人民币。 |
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 9 Well, what you said is very true. But allow me to generalize it a
litte bit ---
In the whole human history, across the world, every paper money ever
existed eventually all ended up with "恶性贬值，最后一文不值". There
is NO EXCEPTION.
So what do you do?
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 最大的风险是RMB急速贬值，中国历史上所有发行过的纸币，自宋朝开始，唯一结果都
: 是迅速贬值，恶性贬值，最后一文不值，宋元明清民国无一例外。我不知道RMB是否能
: 例外，不过按这个势头看起来，可能不会例外，实际上tg的发行的钞票已经恶性贬值到
: 几乎一文不值两次了，一次是解放前的，一次是建国初的旧人民币。
|
l******n
发帖数: 641 | 10 i guess he want to buy put expires Jan, 3011.
might be pricy though.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Well, what you said is very true. But allow me to generalize it a
: litte bit ---
: In the whole human history, across the world, every paper money ever
: existed eventually all ended up with "恶性贬值，最后一文不值". There
: is NO EXCEPTION.
: So what do you do?
|
|
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 11 所以说，最可悲的是，人死了，钱没花了。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Well, what you said is very true. But allow me to generalize it a
: litte bit ---
: In the whole human history, across the world, every paper money ever
: existed eventually all ended up with "恶性贬值，最后一文不值". There
: is NO EXCEPTION.
: So what do you do?
|
f*o
发帖数: 654 | 12 有赚钱的命还要有花钱的命
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 所以说，最可悲的是，人死了，钱没花了。
|
l******n
发帖数: 641 | 13 汤师爷？
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 所以说，最可悲的是，人死了，钱没花了。
|
a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 14 You can buy some gold
Over 1000 years it seems have kept the purchasing power for food
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: i guess he want to buy put expires Jan, 3011.
: might be pricy though.
|
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 15 经济学原理?! Two economists are walking along when one of them notices $100
lying on the ground and bends over to pick it up. The other one says:
“Don’t bother. If there were really $100 on the ground, someone would
already have taken it.”
【在 p*****o 的大作中提到】
: 如果Fed 持续QE政策，现在把美元换成人民币（或者其他更流通的货币），然后存CD，
: 到期之后再换回美元。
: Fed 的 QE 会把通胀出口到其他出口型国家（比如中国），所以中国政府要么加息抑制
: 通胀，要么升值人民币限制出口。无论如何，钱换成人民币以后至少能有和国内通胀率
: 一样的收益。这样做岂不是没什么风险的投资？但根据经济学原理，没有风险的投资不
: 存在。哪位说说问题在哪里？
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 16 is real estate really anti-inflation? i doubt.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I don't understand how CD can give you 和国内通胀率一样的收益.
: Besides, if you put money in CD, 加息 has nothing to do with you.
: If you only exchange USD to RMB and stay with RMB, the risk is Chinese
: government will neither hike interest rate and nor let RMB appreciate
: (or at least appreciate very slowly). That's what they have done in
: the last few years. The result, of course, is massive inflation.
: The right way to do it is to exchange USD to RMB and then invest in
: something that can catch inflation in China, then it's *almost* 稳赚
: 不赔. That's part of the reason of the booming real estate price.
: However, as long as you have to 'invest', risk comes in.
|
m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 17 buy gold and hold it forever |
c*****n
发帖数: 83 | 18 That's true
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: buy gold and hold it forever
|
s*****e
发帖数: 21415 | 19 表示谨慎的同意。人民币很可能发行过量开始贬值。尤其是信
用货币增加以后，贬值的趋势还是很大的。
西方主要大国的货币从政治稳定以后基本没有经历过恶性贬值。
一般来说恶性贬值的根源都是政治不稳定，政府财政恶化，只
能靠印钞票解决问题。国内现在政府收入没有什么大问题。不
过政治风险还是有的。要小心。
国内最大的政治风险是政府的收入问题。公务员队伍非常庞大，
政府现在主要的收入来源是卖地，将来能不能维持下去，难说。
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 最大的风险是RMB急速贬值，中国历史上所有发行过的纸币，自宋朝开始，唯一结果都
: 是迅速贬值，恶性贬值，最后一文不值，宋元明清民国无一例外。我不知道RMB是否能
: 例外，不过按这个势头看起来，可能不会例外，实际上tg的发行的钞票已经恶性贬值到
: 几乎一文不值两次了，一次是解放前的，一次是建国初的旧人民币。
|
w****a
发帖数: 1842 | 20 现在黄金价那么高,真要买,前两年早下手.
【在 m******l 的大作中提到】
: buy gold and hold it forever
|
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 21 two year later, you will say the same thing
you dont have buy at the bottom to make money
【在 w****a 的大作中提到】
: 现在黄金价那么高,真要买,前两年早下手.
|
S******1
发帖数: 1831 | 22 I doubt you can live that long to see the end of RMB, hehe.
Most likely, LZ is talking about short-term investment like 3-5 years. Then
the scenario might be much more different. Same as when people are talking
about housing price, any bubble will eventually break, no rising price
forever and it will eventually go down, blablabla... True, but meaningless
to investment. What you got to think about is where you are standing right
now on the curve and make the next move, general big picture does not help
much here.
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 最大的风险是RMB急速贬值，中国历史上所有发行过的纸币，自宋朝开始，唯一结果都
: 是迅速贬值，恶性贬值，最后一文不值，宋元明清民国无一例外。我不知道RMB是否能
: 例外，不过按这个势头看起来，可能不会例外，实际上tg的发行的钞票已经恶性贬值到
: 几乎一文不值两次了，一次是解放前的，一次是建国初的旧人民币。
|
w****a
发帖数: 1842 | 23 我还真是前两年就买了黄金了,所以两年以后我不会说同样的话了:)
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: two year later, you will say the same thing
: you dont have buy at the bottom to make money
|
