l**v
发帖数: 188 | 1 我的401k和brokerage加起来准备equity和fixed income 70对30的比例投资。现在
stock fund和ETF已经都买好了，接着想买bond，大概十二万的样子。
原来想买muni bond的，现在兜了一圈感觉直接买index fund比如FSITX可能更适合我。
目前比较纠结的是利率在低谷。Yallen说了今年要涨一次，明年要涨三次利率，现在买
bond fund的话短期内NAV肯定要跌。
想请教一下该采取什么措施？我想：
1.买ibond，过一年利息升的差不多了卖掉买bond fund，损失三个月的利息。但这个只
能买一万。
2.把钱存alley bank的CD，过一年取出来买bond fund。
这样做make sense吗？请大牛支招。
顺便问一下，这个ibond的利率是怎么算的。比如我10月1日买ibond，利率是3%的样子
。那么如果11月利率升了的话，我要什么时候才能享受新的利率？是十一月还是明年四
月还是五月？
多谢！ |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 2 利率上升是個長期的趨勢。google下10 year treasury yield的歷史，上一個週期是30
多年，再上一個週期20多年. 你的做法只是針對短期的利率變動，解決不了根本問題.
不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而bond
是有確定的到期日的. 可以有意識的选择不同到期日的bond,都不做交易，到期拿回本
金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响. 先到期的bond又可以以新的价位补仓.
估计你的401k里是不可能买bond的，在brokerage account 里买吧. 考虑到税收，尽
量用municipal bond. 现在多是premium bond，所以还要注意买non-callable bond. |
f**********3
发帖数: 41 | 3 我是菜鸟，纯粹来学习的。看到楼上说：
不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而bond
是有確定的到期日的. 可以有意識的选择不同到期日的bond,都不做交易，到期拿回本
金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响. 先到期的bond又可以以新的价位补仓.
我理解楼上的意思，而且听起来确实是不错的策略。不过我在想，在利率上涨的背景下
，那些管bond fund的manager其实也是可以hold individual bond到到期日的。只有在
卖掉低利率的bond，买进高利率的新bond赚得更多的情况下，他们才会卖掉没到期的
bond。假设费用极低忽略不计的情况，也假设他们的专业水平确实比较高，似乎由他们
管理比我们散户直接买bond并持有到到期应该会更好？毕竟他们是两条路选一条。
望高人指教是这么回事吗？ |
M*****2
发帖数: 77 | 4 bond fund 的performance都是瞄准相应的index 的performance。比如有7-10年的巴克
莱bond index 为标的的ibond fund。对于你的问题，需要考虑利率对bond影响。bond
的对利率的敏感度等于bond的maturity。所以利率上涨，bond的价格像30年这种下跌就
很多。你自己买bond，hold到到期日不卖掉的话，现金流都是确定不变的。但是买fund
你最后出来时需要按市场价卖掉自己的份额。由于bond的价格随利率升高而降低，所以
如果打算长期持有，不建议买bond fund。 |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 5
bond
前面介绍的关于bond的投资策略不是我发明的，它的名字叫“laddered bond“. 这种
投资策略在基金里面没有见过，但是投资公司一直都有对高净值和机构的投资者有提供
“laddered bond portfolio " 的管理.
你的考虑没错，bond 的管理，基金经理比个人还是有不少的优势. 但是基金经理的投
资目标和你的投资目标是不一致的. 一：前面已经有人讲过基金经理大多都是track 一
个index. 或者说基金经理的业绩評定是相对的。利率上升，bond 跌价. 但其他的基
金也跌价，index 也跌价，如果index 跌了5%， 基金经理只跌4..85%那么这个基金经
理outperform.. 但对个人來講，雖然這個基金經理outperform 了，你還是虧錢了.
二： 從1982年到2016年底是一个30多年的债券牛市，虽然也有少数年份利率上升， 利
率一直是下降的。现在在管理bond 的这些基金经理很少有人有在利率长期上涨的环境
下管理bond的经验.
但最核心的bond 和bond fund 的不同，还是在于: bond 你有确定的现金流，bond 的
市场价你不交易，这个市场价是虚的，最后总归回归本金. 而bond fund 的市场价是实
在的价格，即使基金经理确实也在用laddered bond 的方式在管理基金， 对你来讲仍
然没有明确的到期日和现金流，无论你什么时候从bond fund 里出来，基金经理都会把
bond组合按市场价折算.
从基金的角度讲，你还可以了解一下“target term bond funds". 就是有特定到期
日的基金，但这类基金的数量很少.
既然你认可专业人士的价值。不妨找个专业的投资顾问帮你选择和管理这些bonds. It
is essentially a customized bond fund for yourself.
【在 f**********3 的大作中提到】
: 我是菜鸟，纯粹来学习的。看到楼上说：
: 不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而bond
: 是有確定的到期日的. 可以有意識的选择不同到期日的bond,都不做交易，到期拿回本
: 金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响. 先到期的bond又可以以新的价位补仓.
: 我理解楼上的意思，而且听起来确实是不错的策略。不过我在想，在利率上涨的背景下
: ，那些管bond fund的manager其实也是可以hold individual bond到到期日的。只有在
: 卖掉低利率的bond，买进高利率的新bond赚得更多的情况下，他们才会卖掉没到期的
: bond。假设费用极低忽略不计的情况，也假设他们的专业水平确实比较高，似乎由他们
: 管理比我们散户直接买bond并持有到到期应该会更好？毕竟他们是两条路选一条。
: 望高人指教是这么回事吗？
|
r**e
发帖数: 226 | |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 7
Diversify 不是还有其他asset class 吗. 股票，大宗商品，房地产，对冲基金.....
... 這裡只是在討論bond 在利率長期上漲的預期⬇️該怎麼買，怎麼管
理. 就bond 本身的diversify , 確實不如基金。但如果有個10個以上的bond, 已經
基本可以滿足diversify 的要求，track 和monitor 起來也容易.
【在 r**e 的大作中提到】
: 请问这种做法下怎么diversify呢？
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 8 "不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而
bond
是有確定的到期日的... 到期拿回本金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响."
This is a misconception debunked so many times. It's just mental accounting.
Upon interest hikes, you can ignore the market fluctuations all you want,
and pretend that the value of your individual bonds doesn't suffer a loss,
but in reality the loss has already occurred.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bonds-vs-bond-funds-an-easy-choice/
It's better to hold a low-cost bond fund whose effective maturity matches
your investment horizon. If the interest rate does go up, it's fine, because
principal return is only part of the total return. Your reinvestment and
future contribution all get better rates.
Just can't stand the interest risk? Stick to shorter term bond funds then. |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 9 我看了这篇2009年的CBS的文章，文章讲了一个所谓的机会成本“opportunity cost"
，文章也提到laddered bond 不能completely 回避利率的风险. 理论上都没错. 但是
仍然不能否认laddered bond 🈶️明确的现金流而且这个现金流不受利
率变动的任何影响. 这个明确的现金流對一個保守的投資者是很重要的. 尤其是利率
有可能进入一个几十年上涨期的大环境下， 不想現金流受到利率變化的影響。另外，
難道bond fund 沒有這個 opportunity cost? 至于“ misconception debunked so
many times...... mentally accounting....... the loss had already occurred"
是一顶”大帽子“. 希望可以听到更多实际的分析. 不同的观点是好的，大家可以一
起探讨.
" better to hold a low cost bond fund whose effective maturity matches your
investment horizon” 这个方案你得好好解釋一下. 举个例子好了，比方说我的投资
期10年，是不是要选一个“effective maturity " 10 年的bond fund? 十年以後，這
個"effective maturity" 10 年的bond fund 是到期了呢？還是保持 effective
maturity 在10年左右？ 恐怕还是保持10年左右的 effective maturity 吧？ 那麼如
果10年以後利率漲了2%，平均每年漲0.2%， 10 year treasury 漲到4.22%是保守的预
期吧？对于一个effective maturity 10 年的bond fund， 如果利率涨2% ， 这个bond
fund 会跌多少呢？ 16%算合理吧？那么要是有surprise， 十年後10 年treasury要是
涨到8% 呢？ 12%呢？这个effective maturity 10 年的bond fund 又会在什么价位？
相反的，如果用laddered bond , 同样是投资期十年，是很容易做到最后全部以本金出
来. 這個最後以本金出來才是laddered bond 和bond fund 的最核心的不同.
“ if interest rate dose go up, ....... your reinvestment and future
contribution all get better rates" 这个正是laddered bond 所做的， 因为每年都
有到期的bond 要再投资. 而且投资人明确知道有哪些会再投资，有多少会再投資. |
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 10 Whether you *want* to be affected by the interest rate changes or not,
whether you hold individual bonds or bond funds, you are affected anyways.
Emotionally, one form of the loss might be easier to swallow than the other,
to some people. I can understand that, but it's still a misconception. A
loss is a loss. In a very efficient market, which is the case for bond
markets, the different forms of losses are equivalent. That's the point.
your
10 years down the road, will your investment horizon still stay at 10 years,
constant? If/when your investment horizon changes, you have to also
rebalance your bond funds and keep matching the maturity (or duration, if
you prefer). I guess you took my words too literally. So let me make a
correction. It doesn't have to be *one* bond fund. Two would suffice. For
young folks who have 30+ years ahead, you could start with a long-term bond
fund; as you age and your investment horizon shortens, add a short-term bond
fund to average down the weighted average duration; keep monitoring and
rebalancing (I don't mean daily/monthly); at a certain point, you can get
rid of the long-term bond fund and only hold one short-term bond fund.
What are the objectives that your laddered bonds approach can achieve but
using bond funds this way would fail? Costs and diversification are
certainly better using bond funds as far as I can see. Okay, if you only
invest in treasury bonds, you don't need to worry about either.
There are plenty of resources/papers online, where you can learn more and
not tricked by financial advisors/salesmen into some customized portfolio
just for you. They will suck away a lot of your hard-earned money. |
|
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 11 谢谢大家对我的问题的答复，和大家的讨论。
我是一个新手。但是也看了一些文章做了一点research。
我的financial advisor的建议是做bond ladder（不是他的产品，他是我们公司雇的，
所以无论我买什么他也收不到佣金）。我网上查了一下这两个方案各有利弊，这个版上
大家提到的point在别的论坛上也看到过。主要汇总下来就是：
1. bond ladder有确定的现金流，bond fund没有。
2. bond fund有人给你选fund（好坏先不论）。bond ladder完全得你自己选。像我这
样的新手就有一定的风险。我的公司的financial advisor让我stick to zero coupon
，insured，rated AA- or better municipal bond.不知道这个对我的situation make
sense吗？我现在四十，计划二十年后退休。
3. bond fund需要有一个expense，这个是additional cost。自己买fund没有monthly
expense，但是要swallow bid-offer spread.
4. 主流思想是这两种方案in the long run对于升息的风险是一样的。
另外我原来发帖的主要原因是希望了解一下目前情况下的投资对策。我可以理解如果我
已经买了bond，那么只要我hold to maturity，哪怕今后加息我的final income是一样
的，尽管我的buying power会不一样。
但是我实际的问题是还没有买bond。现在fed信誓旦旦的说要升息，明年底之前要升3～
4次。那么fed升息了以后bond的利率也会跟着升的吧（尽管升的幅度可能不一样），而
这个利息我要keep 10～20年。那么是不是应该hold一年等它利息升上去一点再买long
term bond比较划算呢？
谢谢大家！ |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 12
如果我没有看错. 你是在建议不断调整bond fund duration. 還是回到前面的例子。
我的投資期還是十年. 在極端理想的情況下。第一年買一個effective maturity 10 年
的bond fund. 第二年把這個賣掉換一個 effective maturity 9 年的bond fund第三
年換一個effective maturity 8 年的 bond fund最後一年是effective maturity 1 年
的bond fund.
那麼問題來了一: 实际操作的时候，找对应的effective maturity 的bond fund 好找
吗？ bond fund 的effective maturity 是固定的吗？二： 卖掉effective maturity
10年的bond fund 的时候，如果利率上升了，是不是有实际的亏损.？如果利率年年上
升，每年在做调整的时候是不是年年都有本金方面实际的亏损？
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Whether you *want* to be affected by the interest rate changes or not,
: whether you hold individual bonds or bond funds, you are affected anyways.
: Emotionally, one form of the loss might be easier to swallow than the other,
: to some people. I can understand that, but it's still a misconception. A
: loss is a loss. In a very efficient market, which is the case for bond
: markets, the different forms of losses are equivalent. That's the point.
: your
: 10 years down the road, will your investment horizon still stay at 10 years,
: constant? If/when your investment horizon changes, you have to also
: rebalance your bond funds and keep matching the maturity (or duration, if
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 13
This is for 401k? Why muni's in a tax-advantaged account?
long
Do you know something that the market doesn't already know?
Predicting interest rates may be as easy as predicting stock market.
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢大家对我的问题的答复，和大家的讨论。
: 我是一个新手。但是也看了一些文章做了一点research。
: 我的financial advisor的建议是做bond ladder（不是他的产品，他是我们公司雇的，
: 所以无论我买什么他也收不到佣金）。我网上查了一下这两个方案各有利弊，这个版上
: 大家提到的point在别的论坛上也看到过。主要汇总下来就是：
: 1. bond ladder有确定的现金流，bond fund没有。
: 2. bond fund有人给你选fund（好坏先不论）。bond ladder完全得你自己选。像我这
: 样的新手就有一定的风险。我的公司的financial advisor让我stick to zero coupon
: ，insured，rated AA- or better municipal bond.不知道这个对我的situation make
: sense吗？我现在四十，计划二十年后退休。
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 14 As I said, "as you age and your investment horizon shortens, add a short-
term bond fund to average down the weighted average duration".
So, which part do you not understand?
Is it hard to find a fund with a long duration?
Is it hard to find a fund with a short duration?
Is it hard to find the allocation to the two and achieve whatever avg.
duration you desire?
Would it take more than 15 minutes per quarter/year to rebalance?
There are also, say, Guggenheim BulletShares funds, which does IMO exactly
what you like to do it yourself, and at a quite reasonable expense ratio
with much better diversification (200+ bonds last I checked).
But then, nothing stops you from building your own bond ladders. It's fun
and you'd feel in control. I was merely pointing out the misconception that
somehow building bond ladders is superior. It's not.
maturity
【在 K*********y 的大作中提到】
:
: 如果我没有看错. 你是在建议不断调整bond fund duration. 還是回到前面的例子。
: 我的投資期還是十年. 在極端理想的情況下。第一年買一個effective maturity 10 年
: 的bond fund. 第二年把這個賣掉換一個 effective maturity 9 年的bond fund第三
: 年換一個effective maturity 8 年的 bond fund最後一年是effective maturity 1 年
: 的bond fund.
: 那麼問題來了一: 实际操作的时候，找对应的effective maturity 的bond fund 好找
: 吗？ bond fund 的effective maturity 是固定的吗？二： 卖掉effective maturity
: 10年的bond fund 的时候，如果利率上升了，是不是有实际的亏损.？如果利率年年上
: 升，每年在做调整的时候是不是年年都有本金方面实际的亏损？
|
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 15 其实bond fund 的支持着也🈶️两派. Waterfall 基本是low cost
index bond fund 派. 还有一派是active bond management. 象PIMCO 就经常在
Barron's 上做广告，宣传active bond management. 可惜他们用的数据只有过去十年
的.
对你的 financial advisor 的观点赞同.
By the way, I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
interest rate environment. Though, we do not know the timing. |
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 16 你提到了准备hold 10-20年，那你也可以考虑配置一部分EE Savings Bond （guarante
ed double value in 20Y = 3.5% APR w/ tax benefits）。
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thebogleheadsview/2013/03/01/build-your-own-ann
uity/#57016c4f7ba3
我自己只选择了在Retirement Accounts里面买low cost（Intermediate-Term) Bond
Index Funds，我公司的401K提供了After-tax 401K选项并可以Out-of-plan
conversion到Roth IRA，所以没有考虑在Taxable Accounts里面再hold bonds，另外就
是Max每年的EE Savings Bonds （$10K/Y）。
coupon
make
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢大家对我的问题的答复，和大家的讨论。
: 我是一个新手。但是也看了一些文章做了一点research。
: 我的financial advisor的建议是做bond ladder（不是他的产品，他是我们公司雇的，
: 所以无论我买什么他也收不到佣金）。我网上查了一下这两个方案各有利弊，这个版上
: 大家提到的point在别的论坛上也看到过。主要汇总下来就是：
: 1. bond ladder有确定的现金流，bond fund没有。
: 2. bond fund有人给你选fund（好坏先不论）。bond ladder完全得你自己选。像我这
: 样的新手就有一定的风险。我的公司的financial advisor让我stick to zero coupon
: ，insured，rated AA- or better municipal bond.不知道这个对我的situation make
: sense吗？我现在四十，计划二十年后退休。
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 17 I just presumed that someone named *fiduciary must be a financial advisor.
No?
I don't really have too strong an opinion on active vs passive. As long as
they are low-cost, I'd keep an open mind. Vanguard has proved that low-cost,
active equity/bond funds can also be excellent.
"I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
interest rate environment."
That's not a well-kept secret, is it? Why would I want to do something
differently and what alternatives do I have?
Not that I care much about rising interest rates, I actually see it as
positive that future returns will have a chance to go higher than stuck in a
zero-interest rate environment. |
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 18
I have both 401k and a brokerage account. Hence I'm weighing the two options
. All stock funds with my 401k and a mix of ETF & muni funds with my
brokerage account, or a mix of stock funds and bond funds with my 401k and
all ETF with my brokerage account. My original question assumes I will opt
for the latter case. And my 401k doesn't allow me to buy muni funds even if
I'm interested.
I agree with you that it's pretty much impossible to predict the fluctuation
of short term interest rate. However for the big picture, given the fact
that the current rate is close to zero, I assume it's a relatively safe bet
that the rate will go up. No?
Fed also keeps saying that.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I just presumed that someone named *fiduciary must be a financial advisor.
: No?
: I don't really have too strong an opinion on active vs passive. As long as
: they are low-cost, I'd keep an open mind. Vanguard has proved that low-cost,
: active equity/bond funds can also be excellent.
: "I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
: interest rate environment."
: That's not a well-kept secret, is it? Why would I want to do something
: differently and what alternatives do I have?
: Not that I care much about rising interest rates, I actually see it as
|
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 19 "I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
interest rate environment." That's not a well-kept secret, is it? Why
would I want to do something differently and what alternatives do I have?
如果這個20到30 年rising interest rate 的打環境大家意見一致就好辦了.
Laddered bond 本身并不比bond fund 更好. 但在这个利率将长期上涨的大环境&#
11015;️，laddered bond 是比bond fund 更合适的投资bond 的方法. 如果说
确定的现金流不足以令人信服。那么，换个角度。就是投资如何出来. 还是以十年为例
吧。投资bond fund, 无论你怎么样rebalance, 总是要🈶️一个时候从
bond fund 里出来. 从bond fund 里出来的时候、就要以市场价折算，如果认可长期利
率上涨，这个折算就意味着损失. 100元买的bond fund,出来的时候就只剩90！ 80了！
. 中间调整maturity 的时候也是要有这个损失. 当然再投资得时候可以以便宜的价格
买新的bond fund, 可别忘了我们讨论的是是一个长期利率上涨的的环境. 更直观的说
，便宜买的bond fund 后来又更便宜了,从bond fund 里出来，还是损失. 是一个不断
跌价损失的过程. 我曾经跟一个bond fund manager 探讨过，他的回答才是對bond
fund 更有力的支持：”interest rate go up? When? "
However for the big picture, given the fact that the current rate is close
to zero, I assume it's a relatively safe bet that the rate will go up. No?
同样关于等一年再投资长期bond 也是面临这样的问题。比方说明年确实升息了？ 以后
就不再升息了吗？如果继续升息，明年买的bond 或bond fund 是不是仍会跌价？我们
判断的是一个长期走势而不是下一年的利率走向. 事实上，下面一年的利率走势，不是
这么明确. 也有人在关注是否会出现inverted yield curve. 什么意思呢？fed 能定
的只是短期利率，长期利率是由市场定的. Fed 升息，长期利率也可能不升，甚至到了
一个程度，短期利率高于长期利率.
Laddered bond 是否比bond fund 更为合理的策略，归根结底还是大家是否认可我们将
进入一个长达20， 30 多年的利率不断上升的时期。 |
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 20 Merely knowing the interest rate will more likely be rising than falling in
the next however many years is not actionable information.
All that rookie investors know, the market already know long time ago.
Financial advisors or "pros" can't really do much better, if not worse.
You keep promoting bond ladders, but as I repeatly said, bond funds can
achieve the same goals with lower cost and better diversification.
If you want to match certain liabilities in the future, there are funds (
Guggenheim etc.) that target certain maturity.
If you want to keep sensitivity to interest rate stable, there are also
funds (vanguard/ishare/fidelity etc.) target certain duration.
If you want to make investing appear complicated so that you can sell your
service and charge a hefty fee, well, keep at it and don't recommend low-
cost funds. |
|
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 21 感觉用fund很难操作啊， Kc说得比较好理解。
[在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
:"不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而
:bond
:是有確定的到期日的... 到期拿回本金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响."
:This is a misconception debunked so many times. It's just mental
accounting. Upon interest hikes, you can ignore the market fluctuations all
you want,
:and pretend that the value of your individual bonds doesn't suffer a
loss,
:but in reality the loss has already occurred.
:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bonds-vs-bond-funds-an-easy-choice/
:It's better to hold a low-cost bond fund whose effective maturity
matches
:your investment horizon. If the interest rate does go up, it's fine,
because principal return is only part of the total return. Your reinvestment
and
:future contribution all get better rates.
:.......... |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 22 Fund的好处是风险低吧。
自己挑的bond万一破产了怎么办。。。？
我一直想买点bond, 不过还没学习好，不知道买啥。该去哪里找信息呢？
有没有五到十年期的bond, 利息>4% 风险又是很低的？
[在 Kcfiduciary (Kcfiduciary) 的大作中提到：]
:"I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
:interest rate environment." That's not a well-kept secret, is it
? Why
:would I want to do something differently and what alternatives do I have?
:如果這個20到30 年rising interest rate 的打環境大家意見一致就好辦了.
:Laddered bond 本身并不比bond fund 更好. 但在这个利率将长期上涨的大环境&#
:. 中间调整maturity 的时候也是要有这个损失. 当然再投资得时候可以以便宜的价
格买新的bond fund, 可别忘了我们讨论的是是一个长期利率上涨的的环境. 更直观的说
:，便宜买的bond fund 后来又更便宜了,从bond fund 里出来，还是损失. 是一个不断
:跌价损失的过程. 我曾经跟一个bond fund manager 探讨过，他的回答才是對bond
:fund 更有力的支持：”interest rate go up? When? "
:However for the big picture, given the fact that the current rate is close
:.......... |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 23 请问ibond是啥？
[在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
:我的401k和brokerage加起来准备equity和fixed income 70对30的比例投资。现在
:stock fund和ETF已经都买好了，接着想买bond，大概十二万的样子。
:原来想买muni bond的，现在兜了一圈感觉直接买index fund比如FSITX可能更适合我。
:目前比较纠结的是利率在低谷。Yallen说了今年要涨一次，明年要涨三次利率，现在
买bond fund的话短期内NAV肯定要跌。
:想请教一下该采取什么措施？我想：
:1.买ibond，过一年利息升的差不多了卖掉买bond fund，损失三个月的利息。但这个
只能买一万。
:这样做make sense吗？请大牛支招。
:顺便问一下，这个ibond的利率是怎么算的。比如我10月1日买ibond，利率是3%的样子
:。那么如果11月利率升了的话，我要什么时候才能享受新的利率？是十一月还是明年
四月还是五月？
:多谢！ |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 24 对bond fund不太懂，不是特别理解你说的。
我有一笔钱要投资，十年后要拿出来。买十年bond的话结果是可以预期的。我的回报率
和利率没关系。
如果买bond fund的话， 利率如果涨的话，不就跌了吗？
[在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
:"不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而
:bond
:是有確定的到期日的... 到期拿回本金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响."
:This is a misconception debunked so many times. It's just mental
accounting. Upon interest hikes, you can ignore the market fluctuations all
you want,
:and pretend that the value of your individual bonds doesn't suffer a
loss,
:but in reality the loss has already occurred.
:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bonds-vs-bond-funds-an-easy-choice/
:It's better to hold a low-cost bond fund whose effective maturity
matches
:your investment horizon. If the interest rate does go up, it's fine,
because principal return is only part of the total return. Your reinvestment
and
:future contribution all get better rates.
:.......... |
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 25 是一种government issued bond。所以风险接近零。它的利率会随着通胀率而调整。“
i” stands for inflation。但是利率达不到你的这个4%的目标。
我。
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 请问ibond是啥？
: [在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
: :我的401k和brokerage加起来准备equity和fixed income 70对30的比例投资。现在
: :stock fund和ETF已经都买好了，接着想买bond，大概十二万的样子。
: :原来想买muni bond的，现在兜了一圈感觉直接买index fund比如FSITX可能更适合我。
: :目前比较纠结的是利率在低谷。Yallen说了今年要涨一次，明年要涨三次利率，现在
: 买bond fund的话短期内NAV肯定要跌。
: :想请教一下该采取什么措施？我想：
: :1.买ibond，过一年利息升的差不多了卖掉买bond fund，损失三个月的利息。但这个
: 只能买一万。
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 26 我们公司的plan只允许 in plan conversion after-tax contribution到Roth 401k。
“Through the Roth In-Plan Conversion feature, you now have the potential to
avoid federal tax on future 401(k) investment earnings by converting your
401(k) pre-tax savings and/or your after-tax earnings to the Roth 401(k)
source options.”
这个是不是就没什么意思啦？我的理解是这个还不如自己开个Roth IRA，用
traditional IRA走后门转到Roth IRA里。这样的话投资选择要比我们公司提供的这种
option 多。是不是这样的？did I miss anything？
为什么你不考虑muni bond呢？20年的话比如“WISCONSIN CTR DIST WIS TAX REV SR”
，CUSIP 976595EU8，S&P rating AA，yield to worst是3.77%，而且还不用交联邦税
。当然EE bond的风险要更低。仅仅是出于降低风险的考虑吗还是有什么别的原因？一
般讲的low cost bond fund的ER是多少啊？税后收益大概是多少？能讲来参考一下吗？
TIA
guarante
ann
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 你提到了准备hold 10-20年，那你也可以考虑配置一部分EE Savings Bond （guarante
: ed double value in 20Y = 3.5% APR w/ tax benefits）。
: https://www.forbes.com/sites/thebogleheadsview/2013/03/01/build-your-own-ann
: uity/#57016c4f7ba3
: 我自己只选择了在Retirement Accounts里面买low cost（Intermediate-Term) Bond
: Index Funds，我公司的401K提供了After-tax 401K选项并可以Out-of-plan
: conversion到Roth IRA，所以没有考虑在Taxable Accounts里面再hold bonds，另外就
: 是Max每年的EE Savings Bonds （$10K/Y）。
:
: coupon
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 27 学习了。多谢！
[在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
:是一种government issued bond。所以风险接近零。它的利率会随着通胀率而调整。
“i” stands for inflation。但是利率达不到你的这个4%的目标。
:我。 |
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 28 I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help op
and others with a better understanding.
1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years.
Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
lose value when the rate hike occurs in the future.
The expected rate hikes are immediately priced in any existing financial
securities including any bonds, when they are announced. The prices you see
and buy today already incorporate those expectations (risk-neutral, if you
know what I mean) and you don't get bite again when rates actually go up
next year according to the plan/expectation. You are only exposed to
unexpected rate change risks. For example, if market expects rates to go up
25 bps in Jan 2018, and Yellen indeed raises it by 25 bps on that day, your
bond will not gain or lose any value due to this rate increase. The 25 bps
discount of your bond value already happened long ago when it was announced
or implied. Only unexpected rate change will impact your bond value in the
future (e.g. Yellen decides to raise 50 bps during the Jan meeting instead
of 25 bps, or hold it unchanged), but as of today everyone has the same
market info. It makes no sense to hold your breath or be scared and do
anything differently because you are certain that rate will go up (or down).
This should not be hard to understand once you put some thoughts to it.
2) Bond funds are better than bond ladder, or the other way round.
Bond funds are bond ladders, with predefined sets of rules so they are more
transparent and can be executed on exchanges. Therefore bond funds can be
substantially more easily scaled in the market resulting in much higher
liquidity and lower costs. Behind the scenes, they all need to be rolled/
rebalanced periodically by traders/systems. By choosing bond ladders (or
building any bond portfolios of your own), you basically believe that your
expertise (or your financial advisor's) can outperform the market average
plus the additional expense ratio of customization. Statistically (or by my
own subjectivity), there are less than 10% MMs that can beat market even
ignoring the additional cost). Adding 1% cost for bond ladder will easily
reduce that percentage to 1% and below, and do you believe you (or your
advisor) are in the top 1% investment experts? It’s the same analogy of
building a custom stock portfolio vs. buying ETFs such as SPY (i.e. SP 500).
If you did not build a custom stock portfolio, why bother with a bond
ladder?
3) If my investment horizon is 10 years, then I am best served with a bond
portfolio/fund with an average duration close to 10 years.
They are two totally different things. You can exit any position at any time
at the market value (assuming you chose something with good enough
liquidity). You should aim to control your risks (especially tail risks) on
the 10-year horizon while seeking the maximum return within your tolerance
level for that horizon. A long-term treasury fund or a shorter-term high
yield fund or a TIP may serve you better as a diversifier to your existing
positions, whatever they are.
4) Shorter-term bonds have lower exposure to interest risks.
Shorter-term bonds usually have higher correlation with benchmark rates such
as Fed Fund rate or LIBOR rate. They have lower beta only because they have
very low leverages (therefore more wasted capital opportunities at a 100%
funding) for a long-term investor. This caveat can be eliminated by using
bond futures or partially mitigated by using leveraged ETFs, but beware of
the extra costs. |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 29 仍然不是很懂你说的第二第三点比如那个10年duration的bond fund。
股票的etf比较好理解，我可以当spy就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。
但是bond fund怎么操作的我还是不明白。 如果是买十年的bond, 到时候我就是拿本金
出来。 可是你说的大约为十年的bond fund买了以后十年后会怎么样？ 我还是要卖了
才能拿钱出来对不对？ 理论上到时候的市场价应该和我的本金是一样的？
[在 sephiroth (SOLDIER) 的大作中提到：]
:I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
:income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
:clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help
op and others with a better understanding.
:1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
:in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years
. Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
:lose value when the rate hike occurs in the future.
:The expected rate hikes are immediately priced in any existing financial
:securities including any bonds, when they are announced. The prices you see
and buy today already incorporate those expectations (risk-neutral, if you
:know what I mean) and you don't get bite again when rates actually go
up
:next year according to the plan/expectation. You are only exposed to
:.......... |
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 30 用AGG作个例子,AGG tracks the Barclays U.S. Agg index - 5bps for expense
ratio. "你可以当AGG就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。" It pays dividends/
coupons every month, which you can reinvest in the ETF itself automatically
to achieve the total return .
Behind the scene, both AGG and Agg index are just massive bond ladders, with
the Agg index consisted of about 10,000 bonds while AGG consisted of about
5000 bonds (not practical to replicate every single bonds in Agg). You
dividends come from the bond coupons, and when the short end bunch expire,
the principals are rolled into a new bunch of longer maturity bonds every
month.
In average, it has a modified duration of about 6-6.5 years, but anybody can
invest in it and exit it at any time regardless of his/her target horizon.
It's just one way and the cheapest way to access this asset class for most.
not
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 仍然不是很懂你说的第二第三点比如那个10年duration的bond fund。
: 股票的etf比较好理解，我可以当spy就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。
: 但是bond fund怎么操作的我还是不明白。 如果是买十年的bond, 到时候我就是拿本金
: 出来。 可是你说的大约为十年的bond fund买了以后十年后会怎么样？ 我还是要卖了
: 才能拿钱出来对不对？ 理论上到时候的市场价应该和我的本金是一样的？
: [在 sephiroth (SOLDIER) 的大作中提到：]
: :I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
: :income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
: :clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help
: op and others with a better understanding.
|
|
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 31 呃， 如果把AGG看成股票的话一切都make sense. 问题是我需要bond, 或者说，我需要
像CD一样，在一段时间后能全部转成cash的投资方式。
感觉你说的bond fund只能长期track某一种bond的performance, 但是不能像bond一样
到期兑现啊。
[在 sephiroth (SOLDIER) 的大作中提到：]
:用AGG作个例子,AGG tracks the Barclays U.S. Agg index - 5bps for expense
:ratio. "你可以当AGG就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。" It pays
dividends/
:coupons every month, which you can reinvest in the ETF itself automatically
to achieve the total return .
:Behind the scene, both AGG and Agg index are just massive bond ladders,
with the Agg index consisted of about 10,000 bonds while AGG consisted of
about 5000 bonds (not practical to replicate every single bonds in Agg). You
:dividends come from the bond coupons, and when the short end bunch expire,
:the principals are rolled into a new bunch of longer maturity bonds every
:month.
:In average, it has a modified duration of about 6-6.5 years, but anybody
can invest in it and exit it at any time regardless of his/her target
horizon. It's just one way and the cheapest way to access this asset
class for most.
:not |
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 32 1. After-tax 401K
你可以看看下面这个文中的比较：
news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=682209
如果没有out-of-plan conversion的选项，但401K里面的fund还可以，那么我还是会选
择Max After-Tax，然后in-plan converstion到Roth 401K。因为，等你以后换工作了，
或者退休了，你还是可以把old 401K convert到IRA的。
Back door roth IRA当然如果有足够资金，应该默认优先Max。
2. 关于EE Savings vs. Muni
其实我对于bond的研究不多，因为investment gain主要是来源于Stock，EE的配置我主
要看重的是a）Very Low Risk的长期回报（3.5% is acceptable for me）；b）No cos
t，容易manage，每年可以固定购买$10K per SSN。主要的bond holding还是duration
5-7年左右的Intermediate Term的Bond Index。
to
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: 我们公司的plan只允许 in plan conversion after-tax contribution到Roth 401k。
: “Through the Roth In-Plan Conversion feature, you now have the potential to
: avoid federal tax on future 401(k) investment earnings by converting your
: 401(k) pre-tax savings and/or your after-tax earnings to the Roth 401(k)
: source options.”
: 这个是不是就没什么意思啦？我的理解是这个还不如自己开个Roth IRA，用
: traditional IRA走后门转到Roth IRA里。这样的话投资选择要比我们公司提供的这种
: option 多。是不是这样的？did I miss anything？
: 为什么你不考虑muni bond呢？20年的话比如“WISCONSIN CTR DIST WIS TAX REV SR”
: ，CUSIP 976595EU8，S&P rating AA，yield to worst是3.77%，而且还不用交联邦税
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 33 要到期兑现还不容易，bond fund也不是只有一种，Guggenheim 就有到期兑现的bond
fund。看来不贴链接没用，那你看看下面这个是你要的效果吗？
https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/bulletshares
感兴趣的话可以去看看vanguard的research paper：
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ICRDMB.pdf
我自己是不买这样的基金的，你们喜欢的确定到期日对我没什么吸引力。不过在我看来
，这种fund至少比自己费时费力或是花高价请人build bond ladder要强。
automatically
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 呃， 如果把AGG看成股票的话一切都make sense. 问题是我需要bond, 或者说，我需要
: 像CD一样，在一段时间后能全部转成cash的投资方式。
: 感觉你说的bond fund只能长期track某一种bond的performance, 但是不能像bond一样
: 到期兑现啊。
: [在 sephiroth (SOLDIER) 的大作中提到：]
: :用AGG作个例子,AGG tracks the Barclays U.S. Agg index - 5bps for expense
: :ratio. "你可以当AGG就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。" It pays
: dividends/
: :coupons every month, which you can reinvest in the ETF itself automatically
: to achieve the total return .
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 34 Well said.
One comment to add to your 1):
How the expected rates, or market expectations in general, work is that they
are a discounting mechanism based on a function of probabilities that
update instantly based on new information. Even though many here, who by the
way may not have much investing experience yet strongly believe (likely
more so than Yellen and company) that rate will go up, the market is not
exactly pricing it in as a 100% certainty. All these noises should not
change how we invest though, not for people who believe market is efficient
enough.
op
years.
see
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
: income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
: clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help op
: and others with a better understanding.
: 1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
: in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years.
: Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
: lose value when the rate hike occurs in the future.
: The expected rate hikes are immediately priced in any existing financial
: securities including any bonds, when they are announced. The prices you see
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 35 非常感谢。
之前不知道有这种fixed term的bond fund, 看起来是我要找的那种，我去研究研究。
[在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
:要到期兑现还不容易，bond fund也不是只有一种，Guggenheim 就有到期兑现的bond
:fund。看来不贴链接没用，那你看看下面这个是你要的效果吗？
:https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/bulletshares
:感兴趣的话可以去看看vanguard的research paper：
:https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ICRDMB.pdf
:我自己是不买这样的基金的，你们喜欢的确定到期日对我没什么吸引力。不过在我看
来，这种fund至少比自己费时费力或是花高价请人build bond ladder要强。
:automatically |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 36 学习了一下， 似乎目前主要问题在于收益率和风险比起来是否值得。
我和楼主情况不太一样， 是手里有余钱， 准备一部分还房贷， 一部分买股票， 在考
虑有没有风险介于两者之间的投资方式。
我家的房贷是ARM， 因为不确定到时候利率如何， 我希望这部分钱那个时候可以转成
现金， 以备还房贷之用。 所以才考虑bond或者你说的defined-maturity bond etf。
房贷是三点几的利率，看起来风险低的bond回报比不上这个， high yield的bond不知
道是不是值得。
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: 要到期兑现还不容易，bond fund也不是只有一种，Guggenheim 就有到期兑现的bond
: fund。看来不贴链接没用，那你看看下面这个是你要的效果吗？
: https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/bulletshares
: 感兴趣的话可以去看看vanguard的research paper：
: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ICRDMB.pdf
: 我自己是不买这样的基金的，你们喜欢的确定到期日对我没什么吸引力。不过在我看来
: ，这种fund至少比自己费时费力或是花高价请人build bond ladder要强。
:
: automatically
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 37 谢谢你的详尽解释。我对你所说的理解是这样的，麻烦你看一看对不对。
我举的例子那个20年的muni bond利率是3.7%的样子，免联邦税。你举的例子AGG 的ETF
现在的利率是税前-0.36%，税后-1.39%。两者差了5%。
那你的意思是不是说这个muni bond给的利率已经考虑到了今后利率要大涨。而这个AGG
是基于目前的interest rate，今后它的利率要非常大幅度的增长？（要match 这个5%
今后AGG的利率至少也要10%吧，3.7%+5%+additional increase to catch up）。我的
理解不知道对不对？
另外如果我决定买bond fund的话（我公司的401k即使用了fidelity的brokerage link
也不能买ETF）有什么可以推荐的吗？我计划20年后才退休，那么是不是买long term的
bond fund yield会比较高？你说的那个agg的equivalent maturity duration好像是6
～7年。
op
years.
see
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
: income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
: clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help op
: and others with a better understanding.
: 1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
: in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years.
: Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
: lose value when the rate hike occurs in the future.
: The expected rate hikes are immediately priced in any existing financial
: securities including any bonds, when they are announced. The prices you see
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 38 可以请教下为什么要买bond吗？
如果还有很长时间才退休的话，bond和股票比有啥优势吗？
我的401k百分百就是spy和qqq...
[在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
:谢谢你的详尽解释。我对你所说的理解是这样的，麻烦你看一看对不对。
:我举的例子那个20年的muni bond利率是3.7%的样子，免联邦税。你举的例子AGG 的
ETF现在的利率是税前-0.36%，税后-1.39%。两者差了5%。
:那你的意思是不是说这个muni bond给的利率已经考虑到了今后利率要大涨。而这个
AGG是基于目前的interest rate，今后它的利率要非常大幅度的增长？（要match 这个
5%
:今后AGG的利率至少也要10%吧，3.7%+5%+additional increase to catch up）。我的
:理解不知道对不对？
:另外如果我决定买bond fund的话（我公司的401k即使用了fidelity的brokerage link
:也不能买ETF）有什么可以推荐的吗？我计划20年后才退休，那么是不是买long term
的bond fund yield会比较高？你说的那个agg的equivalent maturity duration好像是
6
:～7年。
:years.
:see |
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 39 bond相对稳健一些，而且bond，特别是government bond的走向基本和stock负相关。所
以bond用来在熊市时缓冲。一般的rule of thumb是你的退休基金中bond的百分比等于
你的年龄+/-10%。如果你刚开始工作还有个四五十年才退休的话也可以all stock。或
者你的心理足够强大在股市暴跌的时候能够hold得住，然后也有足够的emergency fund
，也可以all stock。这是我的理解。
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 可以请教下为什么要买bond吗？
: 如果还有很长时间才退休的话，bond和股票比有啥优势吗？
: 我的401k百分百就是spy和qqq...
: [在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
: :谢谢你的详尽解释。我对你所说的理解是这样的，麻烦你看一看对不对。
: :我举的例子那个20年的muni bond利率是3.7%的样子，免联邦税。你举的例子AGG 的
: ETF现在的利率是税前-0.36%，税后-1.39%。两者差了5%。
: :那你的意思是不是说这个muni bond给的利率已经考虑到了今后利率要大涨。而这个
: AGG是基于目前的interest rate，今后它的利率要非常大幅度的增长？（要match 这个
: 5%
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 40 嗯。。。可能因为没经历过漫长的熊市， 股市死捂一段时间就起来了。 如果二三十年
后才退休的话， 感觉股市收益还是大于bond。
当然这只是我的感觉， 没有算过。
fund
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: bond相对稳健一些，而且bond，特别是government bond的走向基本和stock负相关。所
: 以bond用来在熊市时缓冲。一般的rule of thumb是你的退休基金中bond的百分比等于
: 你的年龄+/-10%。如果你刚开始工作还有个四五十年才退休的话也可以all stock。或
: 者你的心理足够强大在股市暴跌的时候能够hold得住，然后也有足够的emergency fund
: ，也可以all stock。这是我的理解。
|
|
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 41 You shouldn't be looking at asset classes in isolation or without
considering your overall financial situation and your investment portfolio
as a whole.
If you are paying interest rate much higher than what your bond investments
return, why do it? It's simple math, isn't it.
If you have no idea what your equity-bond allocation should be, and what
kind of risks you are willing/able/need to take, why even start with which
bond/bond fund is a better choice? That'd be a waste of time.
p.s., junk bonds are not worth it for most. The risk premium is very low (
don't confuse yield with total return), and the risk shows up at the wrong
time (when stocks are tanking). That's especially true as you said you are
100% spy/qqq.
。
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 学习了一下， 似乎目前主要问题在于收益率和风险比起来是否值得。
: 我和楼主情况不太一样， 是手里有余钱， 准备一部分还房贷， 一部分买股票， 在考
: 虑有没有风险介于两者之间的投资方式。
: 我家的房贷是ARM， 因为不确定到时候利率如何， 我希望这部分钱那个时候可以转成
: 现金， 以备还房贷之用。 所以才考虑bond或者你说的defined-maturity bond etf。
: 房贷是三点几的利率，看起来风险低的bond回报比不上这个， high yield的bond不知
: 道是不是值得。
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 42
呃， 我自然是把所有的portfolio一起考虑的。 就是觉得现在全是cash或者股票， 考
虑是不是加点bond diversify一下。
investments
是啊， 现在就是想找比房贷利率高的bond。
我的意思是虽然我愿意冒一定的风险， 来拿比CD高一些的利率，但是具体到什么程度
还是没想清楚的。 这需要先搞清楚那些bond/bond fund是怎么回事才行呀。
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: You shouldn't be looking at asset classes in isolation or without
: considering your overall financial situation and your investment portfolio
: as a whole.
: If you are paying interest rate much higher than what your bond investments
: return, why do it? It's simple math, isn't it.
: If you have no idea what your equity-bond allocation should be, and what
: kind of risks you are willing/able/need to take, why even start with which
: bond/bond fund is a better choice? That'd be a waste of time.
: p.s., junk bonds are not worth it for most. The risk premium is very low (
: don't confuse yield with total return), and the risk shows up at the wrong
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 43 研究了一下， 发现原先想的太简单， 实际情况要复杂一些。
本来以为买这种defined-maturity bond fund就是同时买了很多bond， 按时拿coupon
， 最后拿本金。 交一些fee， 减少风险， 也是值得的。
不过后来想起来， 这种bond fund的公司并不是二道贩子， 不是说他们买了这么多
bond， 然后分成小份再卖给普通投资者。 买这种fund， 和同时买这么多bond， 还是
有些差别的。
比如这个Guggenheim BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF，其实它是correspond
generally to the performance of NASDAQ BulletShares® USD Corporate Bond
2027 Index.
具体他们怎么试图track这个index我没搞清楚， 但是从曲线看， 两者的performance
并不是完全一样的。 就是说， 有这个etf本身操作的风险在里面， 不考虑expense和
fee, 有可能它的收益就是比这些bond要低。
另外就是买了fund后， 并不是真正拥有那些bond。 所以除了bond default的risk，
还要考虑fund公司， 比如Guggenheim破产的风险。
bond
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 非常感谢。
: 之前不知道有这种fixed term的bond fund, 看起来是我要找的那种，我去研究研究。
: [在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
: :要到期兑现还不容易，bond fund也不是只有一种，Guggenheim 就有到期兑现的bond
: :fund。看来不贴链接没用，那你看看下面这个是你要的效果吗？
: :https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/bulletshares
: :感兴趣的话可以去看看vanguard的research paper：
: :https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ICRDMB.pdf
: :我自己是不买这样的基金的，你们喜欢的确定到期日对我没什么吸引力。不过在我看
: 来，这种fund至少比自己费时费力或是花高价请人build bond ladder要强。
|
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 44 I want to be clear that I was not promoting AGG in my previous post. I was
simply using it to explain the mechanism of a typical bond ETF or a bond
index (using Barclays Agg).
It’s not meaningful to calculate the interest/yield of a bond ETF (or any
ETF). They are exchange traded and marked to market at any moment. I am
guessing you simply plug it into a bond calculator and treat it as a
perpetual bond (or a 20-year bond) and it gives you a negative rate using
the current level of around 109. An ETF does not have a par or principal,
and the price level is simply a figure for converting dollar to shares. It
could be renormalized at any time to any level and nothing would change.
For investing, all that matters is how much you put in and how much you take
out when you decide to liquidate your position. For that, you need to
understand the mechanism and characteristics of what you are buying. I think
you are on the right track.
If you are certain you will not need to spend any of these money in the next
20 years, the main question should be how to seek more premium.
Diversification and risk hedging are secondary objectives, until maybe 5
years before your exit time. No crisis in history has lasted longer than
five years in the last hundred years (1927-1932 was the longest but modern
financial systems adjust much faster to crisis.) However, you need to be
sure that you never need to spend any of these money in the next 20 years,
and you are psychologically strong enough to wade through financial crisis (
which likely to happen 1-2 times in the next 15 years) by sticking to your
own plan. Most people aren’t.
There are enough bond funds in any company's 401k plan. However, no bonds or
bond funds can provide premium comparable to equities.
ETF
AGG
link
6
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢你的详尽解释。我对你所说的理解是这样的，麻烦你看一看对不对。
: 我举的例子那个20年的muni bond利率是3.7%的样子，免联邦税。你举的例子AGG 的ETF
: 现在的利率是税前-0.36%，税后-1.39%。两者差了5%。
: 那你的意思是不是说这个muni bond给的利率已经考虑到了今后利率要大涨。而这个AGG
: 是基于目前的interest rate，今后它的利率要非常大幅度的增长？（要match 这个5%
: 今后AGG的利率至少也要10%吧，3.7%+5%+additional increase to catch up）。我的
: 理解不知道对不对？
: 另外如果我决定买bond fund的话（我公司的401k即使用了fidelity的brokerage link
: 也不能买ETF）有什么可以推荐的吗？我计划20年后才退休，那么是不是买long term的
: bond fund yield会比较高？你说的那个agg的equivalent maturity duration好像是6
|
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 45 That is a tiny fund with 6m asset. Do not draw much conclusion from it.
An ETF is fully collateralized and doesn't have any counter party credit
risks as long as the vendor operates legally. You may have mixed it with an
ETN which assumes issuers' counterparty credit risks. Both a bond ETF and a
bond ETN have underlying credit risks, but that's different than the issuer'
s credit risks.
coupon
correspond
Bond
performance
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 研究了一下， 发现原先想的太简单， 实际情况要复杂一些。
: 本来以为买这种defined-maturity bond fund就是同时买了很多bond， 按时拿coupon
: ， 最后拿本金。 交一些fee， 减少风险， 也是值得的。
: 不过后来想起来， 这种bond fund的公司并不是二道贩子， 不是说他们买了这么多
: bond， 然后分成小份再卖给普通投资者。 买这种fund， 和同时买这么多bond， 还是
: 有些差别的。
: 比如这个Guggenheim BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF，其实它是correspond
: generally to the performance of NASDAQ BulletShares® USD Corporate Bond
: 2027 Index.
: 具体他们怎么试图track这个index我没搞清楚， 但是从曲线看， 两者的performance
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 46 There are costs incurred, so it's too much to ask for the fund to be
perfectly tracking the index. I'm not recommending this fund, but I think
they do fairly well.
The 2027 fund is too new. Let's take BSCH (to return all capital this year):
Expense Ratio 0.24%
Median Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.26%
Max. Upside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.19%
Max. Downside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.33%
Hypothetically, if you and Buffett combined put in 10 million dollars into
the fund, they will have to go out and buy bonds maturing by the said year.
It's not always easy to do and has a cost which the existing owners will
have to swallow.
But if you DIY, you will do much better than them with your new
contributions and coupon payment reinvestment?
correspond
Bond
performance
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 研究了一下， 发现原先想的太简单， 实际情况要复杂一些。
: 本来以为买这种defined-maturity bond fund就是同时买了很多bond， 按时拿coupon
: ， 最后拿本金。 交一些fee， 减少风险， 也是值得的。
: 不过后来想起来， 这种bond fund的公司并不是二道贩子， 不是说他们买了这么多
: bond， 然后分成小份再卖给普通投资者。 买这种fund， 和同时买这么多bond， 还是
: 有些差别的。
: 比如这个Guggenheim BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF，其实它是correspond
: generally to the performance of NASDAQ BulletShares® USD Corporate Bond
: 2027 Index.
: 具体他们怎么试图track这个index我没搞清楚， 但是从曲线看， 两者的performance
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 47 多谢提醒。 那看来issuer破产导致的风险应该是很小基本可以忽略不计的。
an
a
issuer'
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: That is a tiny fund with 6m asset. Do not draw much conclusion from it.
: An ETF is fully collateralized and doesn't have any counter party credit
: risks as long as the vendor operates legally. You may have mixed it with an
: ETN which assumes issuers' counterparty credit risks. Both a bond ETF and a
: bond ETN have underlying credit risks, but that's different than the issuer'
: s credit risks.
:
: coupon
: correspond
: Bond
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 48 Actually I was referring to the "total return" of this ETF from ishares
website. As you said these are two different animals. So I think by
comparing total return of the ETF and the yield to worst of the zero coupon
muni bond, I'm essentially comparing the money I gain by purchasing these
two products assuming I hold the muni bond to maturity or to be called. And
on top of it muni bond's yield is immune from the fed tax.
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: I want to be clear that I was not promoting AGG in my previous post. I was
: simply using it to explain the mechanism of a typical bond ETF or a bond
: index (using Barclays Agg).
: It’s not meaningful to calculate the interest/yield of a bond ETF (or any
: ETF). They are exchange traded and marked to market at any moment. I am
: guessing you simply plug it into a bond calculator and treat it as a
: perpetual bond (or a 20-year bond) and it gives you a negative rate using
: the current level of around 109. An ETF does not have a par or principal,
: and the price level is simply a figure for converting dollar to shares. It
: could be renormalized at any time to any level and nothing would change.
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 49 yeah， 我知道不可能100%track的。
不过考虑到平均0.4%的expense， 再加上track的损耗， 感觉也不少了。 因为我得和
房贷， 而不是和CD比。
刚才看fidelity的网站， 十年Corporate (A/A) 最高的yield是4.14%, Municipal (A/
A)是3.5%
似乎就我个人情况， 自己去买十个bond会更划算点？
):
.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: There are costs incurred, so it's too much to ask for the fund to be
: perfectly tracking the index. I'm not recommending this fund, but I think
: they do fairly well.
: The 2027 fund is too new. Let's take BSCH (to return all capital this year):
: Expense Ratio 0.24%
: Median Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.26%
: Max. Upside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.19%
: Max. Downside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.33%
: Hypothetically, if you and Buffett combined put in 10 million dollars into
: the fund, they will have to go out and buy bonds maturing by the said year.
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 50 感觉你说的是收益而不是利率吧。
我猜AGG是因为利率涨所以收益是负的， 因为bond跌了。
coupon
And
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: Actually I was referring to the "total return" of this ETF from ishares
: website. As you said these are two different animals. So I think by
: comparing total return of the ETF and the yield to worst of the zero coupon
: muni bond, I'm essentially comparing the money I gain by purchasing these
: two products assuming I hold the muni bond to maturity or to be called. And
: on top of it muni bond's yield is immune from the fed tax.
|
|
|
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 51 Oh, that's apple to orange. You cannot compare a past performance with a
future cash flow metric. You cannot compare a single bond with specific
characteristics with an index representing a strategy/assect class either.
You can find the average YTW for AGG is about 2.5 but as I said, you can't
imply anything from this number alone.
coupon
And
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: Actually I was referring to the "total return" of this ETF from ishares
: website. As you said these are two different animals. So I think by
: comparing total return of the ETF and the yield to worst of the zero coupon
: muni bond, I'm essentially comparing the money I gain by purchasing these
: two products assuming I hold the muni bond to maturity or to be called. And
: on top of it muni bond's yield is immune from the fed tax.
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 52 So anyway to compare which one is better, if one needs to decide which one
to buy?
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: Oh, that's apple to orange. You cannot compare a past performance with a
: future cash flow metric. You cannot compare a single bond with specific
: characteristics with an index representing a strategy/assect class either.
: You can find the average YTW for AGG is about 2.5 but as I said, you can't
: imply anything from this number alone.
:
: coupon
: And
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 53 I'm not sure how you calculated 0.4% expense. It's 0.24%, which is very
close to the median tracking error of 0.26%, meaning they did a good job
tracking the index before expense.
I know there was a comment earlier in this thread that 10 bonds may be
considered diversified. It's not even close, if you are talking about
corporate bonds.
You know, as much as I'm glad to help, I suggest you find and read some
books first, rather than counting on getting information by pieces and bits
here.
A/
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: yeah， 我知道不可能100%track的。
: 不过考虑到平均0.4%的expense， 再加上track的损耗， 感觉也不少了。 因为我得和
: 房贷， 而不是和CD比。
: 刚才看fidelity的网站， 十年Corporate (A/A) 最高的yield是4.14%, Municipal (A/
: A)是3.5%
: 似乎就我个人情况， 自己去买十个bond会更划算点？
:
: ):
: .
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 54 哦，我看错了。是平均0.27的expense。很多dmf etf的平均。
说十个是因为感觉股票差不多十个我比较comfortable。 价格也比较合适。是不是足够
diversify其实我觉得关系并不是很大，主要是看风险。
是要找本书看看，对bond了解太少了。反正要买也要等tax reform结果出来， 正好先
学习一下。
[在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
:I'm not sure how you calculated 0.4% expense. It's 0.24%, which is
very
:close to the median tracking error of 0.26%, meaning they did a good job
:tracking the index before expense.
:I know there was a comment earlier in this thread that 10 bonds may be
:considered diversified. It's not even close, if you are talking about
:corporate bonds.
:You know, as much as I'm glad to help, I suggest you find and read some
:books first, rather than counting on getting information by pieces and bits
here. |
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 55 我的401k和brokerage加起来准备equity和fixed income 70对30的比例投资。现在
stock fund和ETF已经都买好了，接着想买bond，大概十二万的样子。
原来想买muni bond的，现在兜了一圈感觉直接买index fund比如FSITX可能更适合我。
目前比较纠结的是利率在低谷。Yallen说了今年要涨一次，明年要涨三次利率，现在买
bond fund的话短期内NAV肯定要跌。
想请教一下该采取什么措施？我想：
1.买ibond，过一年利息升的差不多了卖掉买bond fund，损失三个月的利息。但这个只
能买一万。
2.把钱存alley bank的CD，过一年取出来买bond fund。
这样做make sense吗？请大牛支招。
顺便问一下，这个ibond的利率是怎么算的。比如我10月1日买ibond，利率是3%的样子
。那么如果11月利率升了的话，我要什么时候才能享受新的利率？是十一月还是明年四
月还是五月？
多谢！ |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 56 利率上升是個長期的趨勢。google下10 year treasury yield的歷史，上一個週期是30
多年，再上一個週期20多年. 你的做法只是針對短期的利率變動，解決不了根本問題.
不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而bond
是有確定的到期日的. 可以有意識的选择不同到期日的bond,都不做交易，到期拿回本
金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响. 先到期的bond又可以以新的价位补仓.
估计你的401k里是不可能买bond的，在brokerage account 里买吧. 考虑到税收，尽
量用municipal bond. 现在多是premium bond，所以还要注意买non-callable bond. |
f**********3
发帖数: 41 | 57 我是菜鸟，纯粹来学习的。看到楼上说：
不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而bond
是有確定的到期日的. 可以有意識的选择不同到期日的bond,都不做交易，到期拿回本
金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响. 先到期的bond又可以以新的价位补仓.
我理解楼上的意思，而且听起来确实是不错的策略。不过我在想，在利率上涨的背景下
，那些管bond fund的manager其实也是可以hold individual bond到到期日的。只有在
卖掉低利率的bond，买进高利率的新bond赚得更多的情况下，他们才会卖掉没到期的
bond。假设费用极低忽略不计的情况，也假设他们的专业水平确实比较高，似乎由他们
管理比我们散户直接买bond并持有到到期应该会更好？毕竟他们是两条路选一条。
望高人指教是这么回事吗？ |
M*****2
发帖数: 77 | 58 bond fund 的performance都是瞄准相应的index 的performance。比如有7-10年的巴克
莱bond index 为标的的ibond fund。对于你的问题，需要考虑利率对bond影响。bond
的对利率的敏感度等于bond的maturity。所以利率上涨，bond的价格像30年这种下跌就
很多。你自己买bond，hold到到期日不卖掉的话，现金流都是确定不变的。但是买fund
你最后出来时需要按市场价卖掉自己的份额。由于bond的价格随利率升高而降低，所以
如果打算长期持有，不建议买bond fund。 |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 59
bond
前面介绍的关于bond的投资策略不是我发明的，它的名字叫“laddered bond“. 这种
投资策略在基金里面没有见过，但是投资公司一直都有对高净值和机构的投资者有提供
“laddered bond portfolio " 的管理.
你的考虑没错，bond 的管理，基金经理比个人还是有不少的优势. 但是基金经理的投
资目标和你的投资目标是不一致的. 一：前面已经有人讲过基金经理大多都是track 一
个index. 或者说基金经理的业绩評定是相对的。利率上升，bond 跌价. 但其他的基
金也跌价，index 也跌价，如果index 跌了5%， 基金经理只跌4..85%那么这个基金经
理outperform.. 但对个人來講，雖然這個基金經理outperform 了，你還是虧錢了.
二： 從1982年到2016年底是一个30多年的债券牛市，虽然也有少数年份利率上升， 利
率一直是下降的。现在在管理bond 的这些基金经理很少有人有在利率长期上涨的环境
下管理bond的经验.
但最核心的bond 和bond fund 的不同，还是在于: bond 你有确定的现金流，bond 的
市场价你不交易，这个市场价是虚的，最后总归回归本金. 而bond fund 的市场价是实
在的价格，即使基金经理确实也在用laddered bond 的方式在管理基金， 对你来讲仍
然没有明确的到期日和现金流，无论你什么时候从bond fund 里出来，基金经理都会把
bond组合按市场价折算.
从基金的角度讲，你还可以了解一下“target term bond funds". 就是有特定到期
日的基金，但这类基金的数量很少.
既然你认可专业人士的价值。不妨找个专业的投资顾问帮你选择和管理这些bonds. It
is essentially a customized bond fund for yourself.
【在 f**********3 的大作中提到】
: 我是菜鸟，纯粹来学习的。看到楼上说：
: 不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而bond
: 是有確定的到期日的. 可以有意識的选择不同到期日的bond,都不做交易，到期拿回本
: 金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响. 先到期的bond又可以以新的价位补仓.
: 我理解楼上的意思，而且听起来确实是不错的策略。不过我在想，在利率上涨的背景下
: ，那些管bond fund的manager其实也是可以hold individual bond到到期日的。只有在
: 卖掉低利率的bond，买进高利率的新bond赚得更多的情况下，他们才会卖掉没到期的
: bond。假设费用极低忽略不计的情况，也假设他们的专业水平确实比较高，似乎由他们
: 管理比我们散户直接买bond并持有到到期应该会更好？毕竟他们是两条路选一条。
: 望高人指教是这么回事吗？
|
r**e
发帖数: 226 | |
|
|
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 61
Diversify 不是还有其他asset class 吗. 股票，大宗商品，房地产，对冲基金.....
... 這裡只是在討論bond 在利率長期上漲的預期⬇️該怎麼買，怎麼管
理. 就bond 本身的diversify , 確實不如基金。但如果有個10個以上的bond, 已經
基本可以滿足diversify 的要求，track 和monitor 起來也容易.
【在 r**e 的大作中提到】
: 请问这种做法下怎么diversify呢？
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 62 "不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而
bond
是有確定的到期日的... 到期拿回本金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响."
This is a misconception debunked so many times. It's just mental accounting.
Upon interest hikes, you can ignore the market fluctuations all you want,
and pretend that the value of your individual bonds doesn't suffer a loss,
but in reality the loss has already occurred.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bonds-vs-bond-funds-an-easy-choice/
It's better to hold a low-cost bond fund whose effective maturity matches
your investment horizon. If the interest rate does go up, it's fine, because
principal return is only part of the total return. Your reinvestment and
future contribution all get better rates.
Just can't stand the interest risk? Stick to shorter term bond funds then. |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 63 我看了这篇2009年的CBS的文章，文章讲了一个所谓的机会成本“opportunity cost"
，文章也提到laddered bond 不能completely 回避利率的风险. 理论上都没错. 但是
仍然不能否认laddered bond 🈶️明确的现金流而且这个现金流不受利
率变动的任何影响. 这个明确的现金流對一個保守的投資者是很重要的. 尤其是利率
有可能进入一个几十年上涨期的大环境下， 不想現金流受到利率變化的影響。另外，
難道bond fund 沒有這個 opportunity cost? 至于“ misconception debunked so
many times...... mentally accounting....... the loss had already occurred"
是一顶”大帽子“. 希望可以听到更多实际的分析. 不同的观点是好的，大家可以一
起探讨.
" better to hold a low cost bond fund whose effective maturity matches your
investment horizon” 这个方案你得好好解釋一下. 举个例子好了，比方说我的投资
期10年，是不是要选一个“effective maturity " 10 年的bond fund? 十年以後，這
個"effective maturity" 10 年的bond fund 是到期了呢？還是保持 effective
maturity 在10年左右？ 恐怕还是保持10年左右的 effective maturity 吧？ 那麼如
果10年以後利率漲了2%，平均每年漲0.2%， 10 year treasury 漲到4.22%是保守的预
期吧？对于一个effective maturity 10 年的bond fund， 如果利率涨2% ， 这个bond
fund 会跌多少呢？ 16%算合理吧？那么要是有surprise， 十年後10 年treasury要是
涨到8% 呢？ 12%呢？这个effective maturity 10 年的bond fund 又会在什么价位？
相反的，如果用laddered bond , 同样是投资期十年，是很容易做到最后全部以本金出
来. 這個最後以本金出來才是laddered bond 和bond fund 的最核心的不同.
“ if interest rate dose go up, ....... your reinvestment and future
contribution all get better rates" 这个正是laddered bond 所做的， 因为每年都
有到期的bond 要再投资. 而且投资人明确知道有哪些会再投资，有多少会再投資. |
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 64 Whether you *want* to be affected by the interest rate changes or not,
whether you hold individual bonds or bond funds, you are affected anyways.
Emotionally, one form of the loss might be easier to swallow than the other,
to some people. I can understand that, but it's still a misconception. A
loss is a loss. In a very efficient market, which is the case for bond
markets, the different forms of losses are equivalent. That's the point.
your
10 years down the road, will your investment horizon still stay at 10 years,
constant? If/when your investment horizon changes, you have to also
rebalance your bond funds and keep matching the maturity (or duration, if
you prefer). I guess you took my words too literally. So let me make a
correction. It doesn't have to be *one* bond fund. Two would suffice. For
young folks who have 30+ years ahead, you could start with a long-term bond
fund; as you age and your investment horizon shortens, add a short-term bond
fund to average down the weighted average duration; keep monitoring and
rebalancing (I don't mean daily/monthly); at a certain point, you can get
rid of the long-term bond fund and only hold one short-term bond fund.
What are the objectives that your laddered bonds approach can achieve but
using bond funds this way would fail? Costs and diversification are
certainly better using bond funds as far as I can see. Okay, if you only
invest in treasury bonds, you don't need to worry about either.
There are plenty of resources/papers online, where you can learn more and
not tricked by financial advisors/salesmen into some customized portfolio
just for you. They will suck away a lot of your hard-earned money. |
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 65 谢谢大家对我的问题的答复，和大家的讨论。
我是一个新手。但是也看了一些文章做了一点research。
我的financial advisor的建议是做bond ladder（不是他的产品，他是我们公司雇的，
所以无论我买什么他也收不到佣金）。我网上查了一下这两个方案各有利弊，这个版上
大家提到的point在别的论坛上也看到过。主要汇总下来就是：
1. bond ladder有确定的现金流，bond fund没有。
2. bond fund有人给你选fund（好坏先不论）。bond ladder完全得你自己选。像我这
样的新手就有一定的风险。我的公司的financial advisor让我stick to zero coupon
，insured，rated AA- or better municipal bond.不知道这个对我的situation make
sense吗？我现在四十，计划二十年后退休。
3. bond fund需要有一个expense，这个是additional cost。自己买fund没有monthly
expense，但是要swallow bid-offer spread.
4. 主流思想是这两种方案in the long run对于升息的风险是一样的。
另外我原来发帖的主要原因是希望了解一下目前情况下的投资对策。我可以理解如果我
已经买了bond，那么只要我hold to maturity，哪怕今后加息我的final income是一样
的，尽管我的buying power会不一样。
但是我实际的问题是还没有买bond。现在fed信誓旦旦的说要升息，明年底之前要升3～
4次。那么fed升息了以后bond的利率也会跟着升的吧（尽管升的幅度可能不一样），而
这个利息我要keep 10～20年。那么是不是应该hold一年等它利息升上去一点再买long
term bond比较划算呢？
谢谢大家！ |
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 66
如果我没有看错. 你是在建议不断调整bond fund duration. 還是回到前面的例子。
我的投資期還是十年. 在極端理想的情況下。第一年買一個effective maturity 10 年
的bond fund. 第二年把這個賣掉換一個 effective maturity 9 年的bond fund第三
年換一個effective maturity 8 年的 bond fund最後一年是effective maturity 1 年
的bond fund.
那麼問題來了一: 实际操作的时候，找对应的effective maturity 的bond fund 好找
吗？ bond fund 的effective maturity 是固定的吗？二： 卖掉effective maturity
10年的bond fund 的时候，如果利率上升了，是不是有实际的亏损.？如果利率年年上
升，每年在做调整的时候是不是年年都有本金方面实际的亏损？
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: Whether you *want* to be affected by the interest rate changes or not,
: whether you hold individual bonds or bond funds, you are affected anyways.
: Emotionally, one form of the loss might be easier to swallow than the other,
: to some people. I can understand that, but it's still a misconception. A
: loss is a loss. In a very efficient market, which is the case for bond
: markets, the different forms of losses are equivalent. That's the point.
: your
: 10 years down the road, will your investment horizon still stay at 10 years,
: constant? If/when your investment horizon changes, you have to also
: rebalance your bond funds and keep matching the maturity (or duration, if
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 67
This is for 401k? Why muni's in a tax-advantaged account?
long
Do you know something that the market doesn't already know?
Predicting interest rates may be as easy as predicting stock market.
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢大家对我的问题的答复，和大家的讨论。
: 我是一个新手。但是也看了一些文章做了一点research。
: 我的financial advisor的建议是做bond ladder（不是他的产品，他是我们公司雇的，
: 所以无论我买什么他也收不到佣金）。我网上查了一下这两个方案各有利弊，这个版上
: 大家提到的point在别的论坛上也看到过。主要汇总下来就是：
: 1. bond ladder有确定的现金流，bond fund没有。
: 2. bond fund有人给你选fund（好坏先不论）。bond ladder完全得你自己选。像我这
: 样的新手就有一定的风险。我的公司的financial advisor让我stick to zero coupon
: ，insured，rated AA- or better municipal bond.不知道这个对我的situation make
: sense吗？我现在四十，计划二十年后退休。
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 68 As I said, "as you age and your investment horizon shortens, add a short-
term bond fund to average down the weighted average duration".
So, which part do you not understand?
Is it hard to find a fund with a long duration?
Is it hard to find a fund with a short duration?
Is it hard to find the allocation to the two and achieve whatever avg.
duration you desire?
Would it take more than 15 minutes per quarter/year to rebalance?
There are also, say, Guggenheim BulletShares funds, which does IMO exactly
what you like to do it yourself, and at a quite reasonable expense ratio
with much better diversification (200+ bonds last I checked).
But then, nothing stops you from building your own bond ladders. It's fun
and you'd feel in control. I was merely pointing out the misconception that
somehow building bond ladders is superior. It's not.
maturity
【在 K*********y 的大作中提到】
:
: 如果我没有看错. 你是在建议不断调整bond fund duration. 還是回到前面的例子。
: 我的投資期還是十年. 在極端理想的情況下。第一年買一個effective maturity 10 年
: 的bond fund. 第二年把這個賣掉換一個 effective maturity 9 年的bond fund第三
: 年換一個effective maturity 8 年的 bond fund最後一年是effective maturity 1 年
: 的bond fund.
: 那麼問題來了一: 实际操作的时候，找对应的effective maturity 的bond fund 好找
: 吗？ bond fund 的effective maturity 是固定的吗？二： 卖掉effective maturity
: 10年的bond fund 的时候，如果利率上升了，是不是有实际的亏损.？如果利率年年上
: 升，每年在做调整的时候是不是年年都有本金方面实际的亏损？
|
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 69 其实bond fund 的支持着也🈶️两派. Waterfall 基本是low cost
index bond fund 派. 还有一派是active bond management. 象PIMCO 就经常在
Barron's 上做广告，宣传active bond management. 可惜他们用的数据只有过去十年
的.
对你的 financial advisor 的观点赞同.
By the way, I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
interest rate environment. Though, we do not know the timing. |
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 70 你提到了准备hold 10-20年，那你也可以考虑配置一部分EE Savings Bond （guarante
ed double value in 20Y = 3.5% APR w/ tax benefits）。
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thebogleheadsview/2013/03/01/build-your-own-ann
uity/#57016c4f7ba3
我自己只选择了在Retirement Accounts里面买low cost（Intermediate-Term) Bond
Index Funds，我公司的401K提供了After-tax 401K选项并可以Out-of-plan
conversion到Roth IRA，所以没有考虑在Taxable Accounts里面再hold bonds，另外就
是Max每年的EE Savings Bonds （$10K/Y）。
coupon
make
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢大家对我的问题的答复，和大家的讨论。
: 我是一个新手。但是也看了一些文章做了一点research。
: 我的financial advisor的建议是做bond ladder（不是他的产品，他是我们公司雇的，
: 所以无论我买什么他也收不到佣金）。我网上查了一下这两个方案各有利弊，这个版上
: 大家提到的point在别的论坛上也看到过。主要汇总下来就是：
: 1. bond ladder有确定的现金流，bond fund没有。
: 2. bond fund有人给你选fund（好坏先不论）。bond ladder完全得你自己选。像我这
: 样的新手就有一定的风险。我的公司的financial advisor让我stick to zero coupon
: ，insured，rated AA- or better municipal bond.不知道这个对我的situation make
: sense吗？我现在四十，计划二十年后退休。
|
|
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 71 I just presumed that someone named *fiduciary must be a financial advisor.
No?
I don't really have too strong an opinion on active vs passive. As long as
they are low-cost, I'd keep an open mind. Vanguard has proved that low-cost,
active equity/bond funds can also be excellent.
"I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
interest rate environment."
That's not a well-kept secret, is it? Why would I want to do something
differently and what alternatives do I have?
Not that I care much about rising interest rates, I actually see it as
positive that future returns will have a chance to go higher than stuck in a
zero-interest rate environment. |
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 72
I have both 401k and a brokerage account. Hence I'm weighing the two options
. All stock funds with my 401k and a mix of ETF & muni funds with my
brokerage account, or a mix of stock funds and bond funds with my 401k and
all ETF with my brokerage account. My original question assumes I will opt
for the latter case. And my 401k doesn't allow me to buy muni funds even if
I'm interested.
I agree with you that it's pretty much impossible to predict the fluctuation
of short term interest rate. However for the big picture, given the fact
that the current rate is close to zero, I assume it's a relatively safe bet
that the rate will go up. No?
Fed also keeps saying that.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: I just presumed that someone named *fiduciary must be a financial advisor.
: No?
: I don't really have too strong an opinion on active vs passive. As long as
: they are low-cost, I'd keep an open mind. Vanguard has proved that low-cost,
: active equity/bond funds can also be excellent.
: "I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
: interest rate environment."
: That's not a well-kept secret, is it? Why would I want to do something
: differently and what alternatives do I have?
: Not that I care much about rising interest rates, I actually see it as
|
K*********y
发帖数: 18 | 73 "I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
interest rate environment." That's not a well-kept secret, is it? Why
would I want to do something differently and what alternatives do I have?
如果這個20到30 年rising interest rate 的打環境大家意見一致就好辦了.
Laddered bond 本身并不比bond fund 更好. 但在这个利率将长期上涨的大环境&#
11015;️，laddered bond 是比bond fund 更合适的投资bond 的方法. 如果说
确定的现金流不足以令人信服。那么，换个角度。就是投资如何出来. 还是以十年为例
吧。投资bond fund, 无论你怎么样rebalance, 总是要🈶️一个时候从
bond fund 里出来. 从bond fund 里出来的时候、就要以市场价折算，如果认可长期利
率上涨，这个折算就意味着损失. 100元买的bond fund,出来的时候就只剩90！ 80了！
. 中间调整maturity 的时候也是要有这个损失. 当然再投资得时候可以以便宜的价格
买新的bond fund, 可别忘了我们讨论的是是一个长期利率上涨的的环境. 更直观的说
，便宜买的bond fund 后来又更便宜了,从bond fund 里出来，还是损失. 是一个不断
跌价损失的过程. 我曾经跟一个bond fund manager 探讨过，他的回答才是對bond
fund 更有力的支持：”interest rate go up? When? "
However for the big picture, given the fact that the current rate is close
to zero, I assume it's a relatively safe bet that the rate will go up. No?
同样关于等一年再投资长期bond 也是面临这样的问题。比方说明年确实升息了？ 以后
就不再升息了吗？如果继续升息，明年买的bond 或bond fund 是不是仍会跌价？我们
判断的是一个长期走势而不是下一年的利率走向. 事实上，下面一年的利率走势，不是
这么明确. 也有人在关注是否会出现inverted yield curve. 什么意思呢？fed 能定
的只是短期利率，长期利率是由市场定的. Fed 升息，长期利率也可能不升，甚至到了
一个程度，短期利率高于长期利率.
Laddered bond 是否比bond fund 更为合理的策略，归根结底还是大家是否认可我们将
进入一个长达20， 30 多年的利率不断上升的时期。 |
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 74 Merely knowing the interest rate will more likely be rising than falling in
the next however many years is not actionable information.
All that rookie investors know, the market already know long time ago.
Financial advisors or "pros" can't really do much better, if not worse.
You keep promoting bond ladders, but as I repeatly said, bond funds can
achieve the same goals with lower cost and better diversification.
If you want to match certain liabilities in the future, there are funds (
Guggenheim etc.) that target certain maturity.
If you want to keep sensitivity to interest rate stable, there are also
funds (vanguard/ishare/fidelity etc.) target certain duration.
If you want to make investing appear complicated so that you can sell your
service and charge a hefty fee, well, keep at it and don't recommend low-
cost funds. |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 75 感觉用fund很难操作啊， Kc说得比较好理解。
[在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
:"不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而
:bond
:是有確定的到期日的... 到期拿回本金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响."
:This is a misconception debunked so many times. It's just mental
accounting. Upon interest hikes, you can ignore the market fluctuations all
you want,
:and pretend that the value of your individual bonds doesn't suffer a
loss,
:but in reality the loss has already occurred.
:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bonds-vs-bond-funds-an-easy-choice/
:It's better to hold a low-cost bond fund whose effective maturity
matches
:your investment horizon. If the interest rate does go up, it's fine,
because principal return is only part of the total return. Your reinvestment
and
:future contribution all get better rates.
:.......... |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 76 Fund的好处是风险低吧。
自己挑的bond万一破产了怎么办。。。？
我一直想买点bond, 不过还没学习好，不知道买啥。该去哪里找信息呢？
有没有五到十年期的bond, 利息>4% 风险又是很低的？
[在 Kcfiduciary (Kcfiduciary) 的大作中提到：]
:"I would rather believe there will be a 20 to 30 years of rising
:interest rate environment." That's not a well-kept secret, is it
? Why
:would I want to do something differently and what alternatives do I have?
:如果這個20到30 年rising interest rate 的打環境大家意見一致就好辦了.
:Laddered bond 本身并不比bond fund 更好. 但在这个利率将长期上涨的大环境&#
:. 中间调整maturity 的时候也是要有这个损失. 当然再投资得时候可以以便宜的价
格买新的bond fund, 可别忘了我们讨论的是是一个长期利率上涨的的环境. 更直观的说
:，便宜买的bond fund 后来又更便宜了,从bond fund 里出来，还是损失. 是一个不断
:跌价损失的过程. 我曾经跟一个bond fund manager 探讨过，他的回答才是對bond
:fund 更有力的支持：”interest rate go up? When? "
:However for the big picture, given the fact that the current rate is close
:.......... |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 77 请问ibond是啥？
[在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
:我的401k和brokerage加起来准备equity和fixed income 70对30的比例投资。现在
:stock fund和ETF已经都买好了，接着想买bond，大概十二万的样子。
:原来想买muni bond的，现在兜了一圈感觉直接买index fund比如FSITX可能更适合我。
:目前比较纠结的是利率在低谷。Yallen说了今年要涨一次，明年要涨三次利率，现在
买bond fund的话短期内NAV肯定要跌。
:想请教一下该采取什么措施？我想：
:1.买ibond，过一年利息升的差不多了卖掉买bond fund，损失三个月的利息。但这个
只能买一万。
:这样做make sense吗？请大牛支招。
:顺便问一下，这个ibond的利率是怎么算的。比如我10月1日买ibond，利率是3%的样子
:。那么如果11月利率升了的话，我要什么时候才能享受新的利率？是十一月还是明年
四月还是五月？
:多谢！ |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 78 对bond fund不太懂，不是特别理解你说的。
我有一笔钱要投资，十年后要拿出来。买十年bond的话结果是可以预期的。我的回报率
和利率没关系。
如果买bond fund的话， 利率如果涨的话，不就跌了吗？
[在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
:"不建議買bond fund ,建議買bond. 區別在哪裡呢？？bond fund 沒有到期日，而
:bond
:是有確定的到期日的... 到期拿回本金. 利率的变动对你的回报没有影响."
:This is a misconception debunked so many times. It's just mental
accounting. Upon interest hikes, you can ignore the market fluctuations all
you want,
:and pretend that the value of your individual bonds doesn't suffer a
loss,
:but in reality the loss has already occurred.
:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bonds-vs-bond-funds-an-easy-choice/
:It's better to hold a low-cost bond fund whose effective maturity
matches
:your investment horizon. If the interest rate does go up, it's fine,
because principal return is only part of the total return. Your reinvestment
and
:future contribution all get better rates.
:.......... |
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 79 是一种government issued bond。所以风险接近零。它的利率会随着通胀率而调整。“
i” stands for inflation。但是利率达不到你的这个4%的目标。
我。
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 请问ibond是啥？
: [在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
: :我的401k和brokerage加起来准备equity和fixed income 70对30的比例投资。现在
: :stock fund和ETF已经都买好了，接着想买bond，大概十二万的样子。
: :原来想买muni bond的，现在兜了一圈感觉直接买index fund比如FSITX可能更适合我。
: :目前比较纠结的是利率在低谷。Yallen说了今年要涨一次，明年要涨三次利率，现在
: 买bond fund的话短期内NAV肯定要跌。
: :想请教一下该采取什么措施？我想：
: :1.买ibond，过一年利息升的差不多了卖掉买bond fund，损失三个月的利息。但这个
: 只能买一万。
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 80 我们公司的plan只允许 in plan conversion after-tax contribution到Roth 401k。
“Through the Roth In-Plan Conversion feature, you now have the potential to
avoid federal tax on future 401(k) investment earnings by converting your
401(k) pre-tax savings and/or your after-tax earnings to the Roth 401(k)
source options.”
这个是不是就没什么意思啦？我的理解是这个还不如自己开个Roth IRA，用
traditional IRA走后门转到Roth IRA里。这样的话投资选择要比我们公司提供的这种
option 多。是不是这样的？did I miss anything？
为什么你不考虑muni bond呢？20年的话比如“WISCONSIN CTR DIST WIS TAX REV SR”
，CUSIP 976595EU8，S&P rating AA，yield to worst是3.77%，而且还不用交联邦税
。当然EE bond的风险要更低。仅仅是出于降低风险的考虑吗还是有什么别的原因？一
般讲的low cost bond fund的ER是多少啊？税后收益大概是多少？能讲来参考一下吗？
TIA
guarante
ann
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 你提到了准备hold 10-20年，那你也可以考虑配置一部分EE Savings Bond （guarante
: ed double value in 20Y = 3.5% APR w/ tax benefits）。
: https://www.forbes.com/sites/thebogleheadsview/2013/03/01/build-your-own-ann
: uity/#57016c4f7ba3
: 我自己只选择了在Retirement Accounts里面买low cost（Intermediate-Term) Bond
: Index Funds，我公司的401K提供了After-tax 401K选项并可以Out-of-plan
: conversion到Roth IRA，所以没有考虑在Taxable Accounts里面再hold bonds，另外就
: 是Max每年的EE Savings Bonds （$10K/Y）。
:
: coupon
|
|
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 81 学习了。多谢！
[在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
:是一种government issued bond。所以风险接近零。它的利率会随着通胀率而调整。
“i” stands for inflation。但是利率达不到你的这个4%的目标。
:我。 |
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 82 I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help op
and others with a better understanding.
1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years.
Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
lose value when the rate hike occurs in the future.
The expected rate hikes are immediately priced in any existing financial
securities including any bonds, when they are announced. The prices you see
and buy today already incorporate those expectations (risk-neutral, if you
know what I mean) and you don't get bite again when rates actually go up
next year according to the plan/expectation. You are only exposed to
unexpected rate change risks. For example, if market expects rates to go up
25 bps in Jan 2018, and Yellen indeed raises it by 25 bps on that day, your
bond will not gain or lose any value due to this rate increase. The 25 bps
discount of your bond value already happened long ago when it was announced
or implied. Only unexpected rate change will impact your bond value in the
future (e.g. Yellen decides to raise 50 bps during the Jan meeting instead
of 25 bps, or hold it unchanged), but as of today everyone has the same
market info. It makes no sense to hold your breath or be scared and do
anything differently because you are certain that rate will go up (or down).
This should not be hard to understand once you put some thoughts to it.
2) Bond funds are better than bond ladder, or the other way round.
Bond funds are bond ladders, with predefined sets of rules so they are more
transparent and can be executed on exchanges. Therefore bond funds can be
substantially more easily scaled in the market resulting in much higher
liquidity and lower costs. Behind the scenes, they all need to be rolled/
rebalanced periodically by traders/systems. By choosing bond ladders (or
building any bond portfolios of your own), you basically believe that your
expertise (or your financial advisor's) can outperform the market average
plus the additional expense ratio of customization. Statistically (or by my
own subjectivity), there are less than 10% MMs that can beat market even
ignoring the additional cost). Adding 1% cost for bond ladder will easily
reduce that percentage to 1% and below, and do you believe you (or your
advisor) are in the top 1% investment experts? It’s the same analogy of
building a custom stock portfolio vs. buying ETFs such as SPY (i.e. SP 500).
If you did not build a custom stock portfolio, why bother with a bond
ladder?
3) If my investment horizon is 10 years, then I am best served with a bond
portfolio/fund with an average duration close to 10 years.
They are two totally different things. You can exit any position at any time
at the market value (assuming you chose something with good enough
liquidity). You should aim to control your risks (especially tail risks) on
the 10-year horizon while seeking the maximum return within your tolerance
level for that horizon. A long-term treasury fund or a shorter-term high
yield fund or a TIP may serve you better as a diversifier to your existing
positions, whatever they are.
4) Shorter-term bonds have lower exposure to interest risks.
Shorter-term bonds usually have higher correlation with benchmark rates such
as Fed Fund rate or LIBOR rate. They have lower beta only because they have
very low leverages (therefore more wasted capital opportunities at a 100%
funding) for a long-term investor. This caveat can be eliminated by using
bond futures or partially mitigated by using leveraged ETFs, but beware of
the extra costs. |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 83 仍然不是很懂你说的第二第三点比如那个10年duration的bond fund。
股票的etf比较好理解，我可以当spy就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。
但是bond fund怎么操作的我还是不明白。 如果是买十年的bond, 到时候我就是拿本金
出来。 可是你说的大约为十年的bond fund买了以后十年后会怎么样？ 我还是要卖了
才能拿钱出来对不对？ 理论上到时候的市场价应该和我的本金是一样的？
[在 sephiroth (SOLDIER) 的大作中提到：]
:I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
:income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
:clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help
op and others with a better understanding.
:1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
:in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years
. Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
:lose value when the rate hike occurs in the future.
:The expected rate hikes are immediately priced in any existing financial
:securities including any bonds, when they are announced. The prices you see
and buy today already incorporate those expectations (risk-neutral, if you
:know what I mean) and you don't get bite again when rates actually go
up
:next year according to the plan/expectation. You are only exposed to
:.......... |
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 84 用AGG作个例子,AGG tracks the Barclays U.S. Agg index - 5bps for expense
ratio. "你可以当AGG就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。" It pays dividends/
coupons every month, which you can reinvest in the ETF itself automatically
to achieve the total return .
Behind the scene, both AGG and Agg index are just massive bond ladders, with
the Agg index consisted of about 10,000 bonds while AGG consisted of about
5000 bonds (not practical to replicate every single bonds in Agg). You
dividends come from the bond coupons, and when the short end bunch expire,
the principals are rolled into a new bunch of longer maturity bonds every
month.
In average, it has a modified duration of about 6-6.5 years, but anybody can
invest in it and exit it at any time regardless of his/her target horizon.
It's just one way and the cheapest way to access this asset class for most.
not
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 仍然不是很懂你说的第二第三点比如那个10年duration的bond fund。
: 股票的etf比较好理解，我可以当spy就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。
: 但是bond fund怎么操作的我还是不明白。 如果是买十年的bond, 到时候我就是拿本金
: 出来。 可是你说的大约为十年的bond fund买了以后十年后会怎么样？ 我还是要卖了
: 才能拿钱出来对不对？ 理论上到时候的市场价应该和我的本金是一样的？
: [在 sephiroth (SOLDIER) 的大作中提到：]
: :I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
: :income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
: :clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help
: op and others with a better understanding.
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 85 呃， 如果把AGG看成股票的话一切都make sense. 问题是我需要bond, 或者说，我需要
像CD一样，在一段时间后能全部转成cash的投资方式。
感觉你说的bond fund只能长期track某一种bond的performance, 但是不能像bond一样
到期兑现啊。
[在 sephiroth (SOLDIER) 的大作中提到：]
:用AGG作个例子,AGG tracks the Barclays U.S. Agg index - 5bps for expense
:ratio. "你可以当AGG就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。" It pays
dividends/
:coupons every month, which you can reinvest in the ETF itself automatically
to achieve the total return .
:Behind the scene, both AGG and Agg index are just massive bond ladders,
with the Agg index consisted of about 10,000 bonds while AGG consisted of
about 5000 bonds (not practical to replicate every single bonds in Agg). You
:dividends come from the bond coupons, and when the short end bunch expire,
:the principals are rolled into a new bunch of longer maturity bonds every
:month.
:In average, it has a modified duration of about 6-6.5 years, but anybody
can invest in it and exit it at any time regardless of his/her target
horizon. It's just one way and the cheapest way to access this asset
class for most.
:not |
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 86 1. After-tax 401K
你可以看看下面这个文中的比较：
news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=682209
如果没有out-of-plan conversion的选项，但401K里面的fund还可以，那么我还是会选
择Max After-Tax，然后in-plan converstion到Roth 401K。因为，等你以后换工作了，
或者退休了，你还是可以把old 401K convert到IRA的。
Back door roth IRA当然如果有足够资金，应该默认优先Max。
2. 关于EE Savings vs. Muni
其实我对于bond的研究不多，因为investment gain主要是来源于Stock，EE的配置我主
要看重的是a）Very Low Risk的长期回报（3.5% is acceptable for me）；b）No cos
t，容易manage，每年可以固定购买$10K per SSN。主要的bond holding还是duration
5-7年左右的Intermediate Term的Bond Index。
to
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: 我们公司的plan只允许 in plan conversion after-tax contribution到Roth 401k。
: “Through the Roth In-Plan Conversion feature, you now have the potential to
: avoid federal tax on future 401(k) investment earnings by converting your
: 401(k) pre-tax savings and/or your after-tax earnings to the Roth 401(k)
: source options.”
: 这个是不是就没什么意思啦？我的理解是这个还不如自己开个Roth IRA，用
: traditional IRA走后门转到Roth IRA里。这样的话投资选择要比我们公司提供的这种
: option 多。是不是这样的？did I miss anything？
: 为什么你不考虑muni bond呢？20年的话比如“WISCONSIN CTR DIST WIS TAX REV SR”
: ，CUSIP 976595EU8，S&P rating AA，yield to worst是3.77%，而且还不用交联邦税
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 87 要到期兑现还不容易，bond fund也不是只有一种，Guggenheim 就有到期兑现的bond
fund。看来不贴链接没用，那你看看下面这个是你要的效果吗？
https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/bulletshares
感兴趣的话可以去看看vanguard的research paper：
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ICRDMB.pdf
我自己是不买这样的基金的，你们喜欢的确定到期日对我没什么吸引力。不过在我看来
，这种fund至少比自己费时费力或是花高价请人build bond ladder要强。
automatically
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 呃， 如果把AGG看成股票的话一切都make sense. 问题是我需要bond, 或者说，我需要
: 像CD一样，在一段时间后能全部转成cash的投资方式。
: 感觉你说的bond fund只能长期track某一种bond的performance, 但是不能像bond一样
: 到期兑现啊。
: [在 sephiroth (SOLDIER) 的大作中提到：]
: :用AGG作个例子,AGG tracks the Barclays U.S. Agg index - 5bps for expense
: :ratio. "你可以当AGG就是一个股票。有股息，股价也会波动。" It pays
: dividends/
: :coupons every month, which you can reinvest in the ETF itself automatically
: to achieve the total return .
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 88 Well said.
One comment to add to your 1):
How the expected rates, or market expectations in general, work is that they
are a discounting mechanism based on a function of probabilities that
update instantly based on new information. Even though many here, who by the
way may not have much investing experience yet strongly believe (likely
more so than Yellen and company) that rate will go up, the market is not
exactly pricing it in as a 100% certainty. All these noises should not
change how we invest though, not for people who believe market is efficient
enough.
op
years.
see
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
: income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
: clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help op
: and others with a better understanding.
: 1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
: in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years.
: Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
: lose value when the rate hike occurs in the future.
: The expected rate hikes are immediately priced in any existing financial
: securities including any bonds, when they are announced. The prices you see
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 89 非常感谢。
之前不知道有这种fixed term的bond fund, 看起来是我要找的那种，我去研究研究。
[在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
:要到期兑现还不容易，bond fund也不是只有一种，Guggenheim 就有到期兑现的bond
:fund。看来不贴链接没用，那你看看下面这个是你要的效果吗？
:https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/bulletshares
:感兴趣的话可以去看看vanguard的research paper：
:https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ICRDMB.pdf
:我自己是不买这样的基金的，你们喜欢的确定到期日对我没什么吸引力。不过在我看
来，这种fund至少比自己费时费力或是花高价请人build bond ladder要强。
:automatically |
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 90 学习了一下， 似乎目前主要问题在于收益率和风险比起来是否值得。
我和楼主情况不太一样， 是手里有余钱， 准备一部分还房贷， 一部分买股票， 在考
虑有没有风险介于两者之间的投资方式。
我家的房贷是ARM， 因为不确定到时候利率如何， 我希望这部分钱那个时候可以转成
现金， 以备还房贷之用。 所以才考虑bond或者你说的defined-maturity bond etf。
房贷是三点几的利率，看起来风险低的bond回报比不上这个， high yield的bond不知
道是不是值得。
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: 要到期兑现还不容易，bond fund也不是只有一种，Guggenheim 就有到期兑现的bond
: fund。看来不贴链接没用，那你看看下面这个是你要的效果吗？
: https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/bulletshares
: 感兴趣的话可以去看看vanguard的research paper：
: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ICRDMB.pdf
: 我自己是不买这样的基金的，你们喜欢的确定到期日对我没什么吸引力。不过在我看来
: ，这种fund至少比自己费时费力或是花高价请人build bond ladder要强。
:
: automatically
|
|
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 91 谢谢你的详尽解释。我对你所说的理解是这样的，麻烦你看一看对不对。
我举的例子那个20年的muni bond利率是3.7%的样子，免联邦税。你举的例子AGG 的ETF
现在的利率是税前-0.36%，税后-1.39%。两者差了5%。
那你的意思是不是说这个muni bond给的利率已经考虑到了今后利率要大涨。而这个AGG
是基于目前的interest rate，今后它的利率要非常大幅度的增长？（要match 这个5%
今后AGG的利率至少也要10%吧，3.7%+5%+additional increase to catch up）。我的
理解不知道对不对？
另外如果我决定买bond fund的话（我公司的401k即使用了fidelity的brokerage link
也不能买ETF）有什么可以推荐的吗？我计划20年后才退休，那么是不是买long term的
bond fund yield会比较高？你说的那个agg的equivalent maturity duration好像是6
～7年。
op
years.
see
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: I see a few misunderstandings about investing, and in particular fixed
: income investing in this post. Some have been debunked, but others are not
: clarified and more are created in the replies. Hope my two cents can help op
: and others with a better understanding.
: 1) We are in a low rates environment, and Fed says rates will surely go up
: in the next year, in the next 10 years and even maybe in the next 100 years.
: Therefore if I buy a bond (or a bond fund) and hold it, my position will
: lose value when the rate hike occurs in the future.
: The expected rate hikes are immediately priced in any existing financial
: securities including any bonds, when they are announced. The prices you see
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 92 可以请教下为什么要买bond吗？
如果还有很长时间才退休的话，bond和股票比有啥优势吗？
我的401k百分百就是spy和qqq...
[在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
:谢谢你的详尽解释。我对你所说的理解是这样的，麻烦你看一看对不对。
:我举的例子那个20年的muni bond利率是3.7%的样子，免联邦税。你举的例子AGG 的
ETF现在的利率是税前-0.36%，税后-1.39%。两者差了5%。
:那你的意思是不是说这个muni bond给的利率已经考虑到了今后利率要大涨。而这个
AGG是基于目前的interest rate，今后它的利率要非常大幅度的增长？（要match 这个
5%
:今后AGG的利率至少也要10%吧，3.7%+5%+additional increase to catch up）。我的
:理解不知道对不对？
:另外如果我决定买bond fund的话（我公司的401k即使用了fidelity的brokerage link
:也不能买ETF）有什么可以推荐的吗？我计划20年后才退休，那么是不是买long term
的bond fund yield会比较高？你说的那个agg的equivalent maturity duration好像是
6
:～7年。
:years.
:see |
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 93 bond相对稳健一些，而且bond，特别是government bond的走向基本和stock负相关。所
以bond用来在熊市时缓冲。一般的rule of thumb是你的退休基金中bond的百分比等于
你的年龄+/-10%。如果你刚开始工作还有个四五十年才退休的话也可以all stock。或
者你的心理足够强大在股市暴跌的时候能够hold得住，然后也有足够的emergency fund
，也可以all stock。这是我的理解。
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 可以请教下为什么要买bond吗？
: 如果还有很长时间才退休的话，bond和股票比有啥优势吗？
: 我的401k百分百就是spy和qqq...
: [在 llev (llev) 的大作中提到：]
: :谢谢你的详尽解释。我对你所说的理解是这样的，麻烦你看一看对不对。
: :我举的例子那个20年的muni bond利率是3.7%的样子，免联邦税。你举的例子AGG 的
: ETF现在的利率是税前-0.36%，税后-1.39%。两者差了5%。
: :那你的意思是不是说这个muni bond给的利率已经考虑到了今后利率要大涨。而这个
: AGG是基于目前的interest rate，今后它的利率要非常大幅度的增长？（要match 这个
: 5%
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 94 嗯。。。可能因为没经历过漫长的熊市， 股市死捂一段时间就起来了。 如果二三十年
后才退休的话， 感觉股市收益还是大于bond。
当然这只是我的感觉， 没有算过。
fund
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: bond相对稳健一些，而且bond，特别是government bond的走向基本和stock负相关。所
: 以bond用来在熊市时缓冲。一般的rule of thumb是你的退休基金中bond的百分比等于
: 你的年龄+/-10%。如果你刚开始工作还有个四五十年才退休的话也可以all stock。或
: 者你的心理足够强大在股市暴跌的时候能够hold得住，然后也有足够的emergency fund
: ，也可以all stock。这是我的理解。
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 95 You shouldn't be looking at asset classes in isolation or without
considering your overall financial situation and your investment portfolio
as a whole.
If you are paying interest rate much higher than what your bond investments
return, why do it? It's simple math, isn't it.
If you have no idea what your equity-bond allocation should be, and what
kind of risks you are willing/able/need to take, why even start with which
bond/bond fund is a better choice? That'd be a waste of time.
p.s., junk bonds are not worth it for most. The risk premium is very low (
don't confuse yield with total return), and the risk shows up at the wrong
time (when stocks are tanking). That's especially true as you said you are
100% spy/qqq.
。
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 学习了一下， 似乎目前主要问题在于收益率和风险比起来是否值得。
: 我和楼主情况不太一样， 是手里有余钱， 准备一部分还房贷， 一部分买股票， 在考
: 虑有没有风险介于两者之间的投资方式。
: 我家的房贷是ARM， 因为不确定到时候利率如何， 我希望这部分钱那个时候可以转成
: 现金， 以备还房贷之用。 所以才考虑bond或者你说的defined-maturity bond etf。
: 房贷是三点几的利率，看起来风险低的bond回报比不上这个， high yield的bond不知
: 道是不是值得。
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 96
呃， 我自然是把所有的portfolio一起考虑的。 就是觉得现在全是cash或者股票， 考
虑是不是加点bond diversify一下。
investments
是啊， 现在就是想找比房贷利率高的bond。
我的意思是虽然我愿意冒一定的风险， 来拿比CD高一些的利率，但是具体到什么程度
还是没想清楚的。 这需要先搞清楚那些bond/bond fund是怎么回事才行呀。
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: You shouldn't be looking at asset classes in isolation or without
: considering your overall financial situation and your investment portfolio
: as a whole.
: If you are paying interest rate much higher than what your bond investments
: return, why do it? It's simple math, isn't it.
: If you have no idea what your equity-bond allocation should be, and what
: kind of risks you are willing/able/need to take, why even start with which
: bond/bond fund is a better choice? That'd be a waste of time.
: p.s., junk bonds are not worth it for most. The risk premium is very low (
: don't confuse yield with total return), and the risk shows up at the wrong
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 97 研究了一下， 发现原先想的太简单， 实际情况要复杂一些。
本来以为买这种defined-maturity bond fund就是同时买了很多bond， 按时拿coupon
， 最后拿本金。 交一些fee， 减少风险， 也是值得的。
不过后来想起来， 这种bond fund的公司并不是二道贩子， 不是说他们买了这么多
bond， 然后分成小份再卖给普通投资者。 买这种fund， 和同时买这么多bond， 还是
有些差别的。
比如这个Guggenheim BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF，其实它是correspond
generally to the performance of NASDAQ BulletShares® USD Corporate Bond
2027 Index.
具体他们怎么试图track这个index我没搞清楚， 但是从曲线看， 两者的performance
并不是完全一样的。 就是说， 有这个etf本身操作的风险在里面， 不考虑expense和
fee, 有可能它的收益就是比这些bond要低。
另外就是买了fund后， 并不是真正拥有那些bond。 所以除了bond default的risk，
还要考虑fund公司， 比如Guggenheim破产的风险。
bond
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 非常感谢。
: 之前不知道有这种fixed term的bond fund, 看起来是我要找的那种，我去研究研究。
: [在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
: :要到期兑现还不容易，bond fund也不是只有一种，Guggenheim 就有到期兑现的bond
: :fund。看来不贴链接没用，那你看看下面这个是你要的效果吗？
: :https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/etf/bulletshares
: :感兴趣的话可以去看看vanguard的research paper：
: :https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ICRDMB.pdf
: :我自己是不买这样的基金的，你们喜欢的确定到期日对我没什么吸引力。不过在我看
: 来，这种fund至少比自己费时费力或是花高价请人build bond ladder要强。
|
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 98 I want to be clear that I was not promoting AGG in my previous post. I was
simply using it to explain the mechanism of a typical bond ETF or a bond
index (using Barclays Agg).
It’s not meaningful to calculate the interest/yield of a bond ETF (or any
ETF). They are exchange traded and marked to market at any moment. I am
guessing you simply plug it into a bond calculator and treat it as a
perpetual bond (or a 20-year bond) and it gives you a negative rate using
the current level of around 109. An ETF does not have a par or principal,
and the price level is simply a figure for converting dollar to shares. It
could be renormalized at any time to any level and nothing would change.
For investing, all that matters is how much you put in and how much you take
out when you decide to liquidate your position. For that, you need to
understand the mechanism and characteristics of what you are buying. I think
you are on the right track.
If you are certain you will not need to spend any of these money in the next
20 years, the main question should be how to seek more premium.
Diversification and risk hedging are secondary objectives, until maybe 5
years before your exit time. No crisis in history has lasted longer than
five years in the last hundred years (1927-1932 was the longest but modern
financial systems adjust much faster to crisis.) However, you need to be
sure that you never need to spend any of these money in the next 20 years,
and you are psychologically strong enough to wade through financial crisis (
which likely to happen 1-2 times in the next 15 years) by sticking to your
own plan. Most people aren’t.
There are enough bond funds in any company's 401k plan. However, no bonds or
bond funds can provide premium comparable to equities.
ETF
AGG
link
6
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢你的详尽解释。我对你所说的理解是这样的，麻烦你看一看对不对。
: 我举的例子那个20年的muni bond利率是3.7%的样子，免联邦税。你举的例子AGG 的ETF
: 现在的利率是税前-0.36%，税后-1.39%。两者差了5%。
: 那你的意思是不是说这个muni bond给的利率已经考虑到了今后利率要大涨。而这个AGG
: 是基于目前的interest rate，今后它的利率要非常大幅度的增长？（要match 这个5%
: 今后AGG的利率至少也要10%吧，3.7%+5%+additional increase to catch up）。我的
: 理解不知道对不对？
: 另外如果我决定买bond fund的话（我公司的401k即使用了fidelity的brokerage link
: 也不能买ETF）有什么可以推荐的吗？我计划20年后才退休，那么是不是买long term的
: bond fund yield会比较高？你说的那个agg的equivalent maturity duration好像是6
|
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 99 That is a tiny fund with 6m asset. Do not draw much conclusion from it.
An ETF is fully collateralized and doesn't have any counter party credit
risks as long as the vendor operates legally. You may have mixed it with an
ETN which assumes issuers' counterparty credit risks. Both a bond ETF and a
bond ETN have underlying credit risks, but that's different than the issuer'
s credit risks.
coupon
correspond
Bond
performance
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 研究了一下， 发现原先想的太简单， 实际情况要复杂一些。
: 本来以为买这种defined-maturity bond fund就是同时买了很多bond， 按时拿coupon
: ， 最后拿本金。 交一些fee， 减少风险， 也是值得的。
: 不过后来想起来， 这种bond fund的公司并不是二道贩子， 不是说他们买了这么多
: bond， 然后分成小份再卖给普通投资者。 买这种fund， 和同时买这么多bond， 还是
: 有些差别的。
: 比如这个Guggenheim BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF，其实它是correspond
: generally to the performance of NASDAQ BulletShares® USD Corporate Bond
: 2027 Index.
: 具体他们怎么试图track这个index我没搞清楚， 但是从曲线看， 两者的performance
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 100 There are costs incurred, so it's too much to ask for the fund to be
perfectly tracking the index. I'm not recommending this fund, but I think
they do fairly well.
The 2027 fund is too new. Let's take BSCH (to return all capital this year):
Expense Ratio 0.24%
Median Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.26%
Max. Upside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.19%
Max. Downside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.33%
Hypothetically, if you and Buffett combined put in 10 million dollars into
the fund, they will have to go out and buy bonds maturing by the said year.
It's not always easy to do and has a cost which the existing owners will
have to swallow.
But if you DIY, you will do much better than them with your new
contributions and coupon payment reinvestment?
correspond
Bond
performance
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: 研究了一下， 发现原先想的太简单， 实际情况要复杂一些。
: 本来以为买这种defined-maturity bond fund就是同时买了很多bond， 按时拿coupon
: ， 最后拿本金。 交一些fee， 减少风险， 也是值得的。
: 不过后来想起来， 这种bond fund的公司并不是二道贩子， 不是说他们买了这么多
: bond， 然后分成小份再卖给普通投资者。 买这种fund， 和同时买这么多bond， 还是
: 有些差别的。
: 比如这个Guggenheim BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF，其实它是correspond
: generally to the performance of NASDAQ BulletShares® USD Corporate Bond
: 2027 Index.
: 具体他们怎么试图track这个index我没搞清楚， 但是从曲线看， 两者的performance
|
|
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 101 多谢提醒。 那看来issuer破产导致的风险应该是很小基本可以忽略不计的。
an
a
issuer'
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: That is a tiny fund with 6m asset. Do not draw much conclusion from it.
: An ETF is fully collateralized and doesn't have any counter party credit
: risks as long as the vendor operates legally. You may have mixed it with an
: ETN which assumes issuers' counterparty credit risks. Both a bond ETF and a
: bond ETN have underlying credit risks, but that's different than the issuer'
: s credit risks.
:
: coupon
: correspond
: Bond
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 102 Actually I was referring to the "total return" of this ETF from ishares
website. As you said these are two different animals. So I think by
comparing total return of the ETF and the yield to worst of the zero coupon
muni bond, I'm essentially comparing the money I gain by purchasing these
two products assuming I hold the muni bond to maturity or to be called. And
on top of it muni bond's yield is immune from the fed tax.
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: I want to be clear that I was not promoting AGG in my previous post. I was
: simply using it to explain the mechanism of a typical bond ETF or a bond
: index (using Barclays Agg).
: It’s not meaningful to calculate the interest/yield of a bond ETF (or any
: ETF). They are exchange traded and marked to market at any moment. I am
: guessing you simply plug it into a bond calculator and treat it as a
: perpetual bond (or a 20-year bond) and it gives you a negative rate using
: the current level of around 109. An ETF does not have a par or principal,
: and the price level is simply a figure for converting dollar to shares. It
: could be renormalized at any time to any level and nothing would change.
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 103 yeah， 我知道不可能100%track的。
不过考虑到平均0.4%的expense， 再加上track的损耗， 感觉也不少了。 因为我得和
房贷， 而不是和CD比。
刚才看fidelity的网站， 十年Corporate (A/A) 最高的yield是4.14%, Municipal (A/
A)是3.5%
似乎就我个人情况， 自己去买十个bond会更划算点？
):
.
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: There are costs incurred, so it's too much to ask for the fund to be
: perfectly tracking the index. I'm not recommending this fund, but I think
: they do fairly well.
: The 2027 fund is too new. Let's take BSCH (to return all capital this year):
: Expense Ratio 0.24%
: Median Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.26%
: Max. Upside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.19%
: Max. Downside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.33%
: Hypothetically, if you and Buffett combined put in 10 million dollars into
: the fund, they will have to go out and buy bonds maturing by the said year.
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 104 感觉你说的是收益而不是利率吧。
我猜AGG是因为利率涨所以收益是负的， 因为bond跌了。
coupon
And
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: Actually I was referring to the "total return" of this ETF from ishares
: website. As you said these are two different animals. So I think by
: comparing total return of the ETF and the yield to worst of the zero coupon
: muni bond, I'm essentially comparing the money I gain by purchasing these
: two products assuming I hold the muni bond to maturity or to be called. And
: on top of it muni bond's yield is immune from the fed tax.
|
s*******h
发帖数: 1361 | 105 Oh, that's apple to orange. You cannot compare a past performance with a
future cash flow metric. You cannot compare a single bond with specific
characteristics with an index representing a strategy/assect class either.
You can find the average YTW for AGG is about 2.5 but as I said, you can't
imply anything from this number alone.
coupon
And
【在 l**v 的大作中提到】
: Actually I was referring to the "total return" of this ETF from ishares
: website. As you said these are two different animals. So I think by
: comparing total return of the ETF and the yield to worst of the zero coupon
: muni bond, I'm essentially comparing the money I gain by purchasing these
: two products assuming I hold the muni bond to maturity or to be called. And
: on top of it muni bond's yield is immune from the fed tax.
|
l**v
发帖数: 188 | 106 So anyway to compare which one is better, if one needs to decide which one
to buy?
【在 s*******h 的大作中提到】
: Oh, that's apple to orange. You cannot compare a past performance with a
: future cash flow metric. You cannot compare a single bond with specific
: characteristics with an index representing a strategy/assect class either.
: You can find the average YTW for AGG is about 2.5 but as I said, you can't
: imply anything from this number alone.
:
: coupon
: And
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 107 I'm not sure how you calculated 0.4% expense. It's 0.24%, which is very
close to the median tracking error of 0.26%, meaning they did a good job
tracking the index before expense.
I know there was a comment earlier in this thread that 10 bonds may be
considered diversified. It's not even close, if you are talking about
corporate bonds.
You know, as much as I'm glad to help, I suggest you find and read some
books first, rather than counting on getting information by pieces and bits
here.
A/
【在 S**P 的大作中提到】
: yeah， 我知道不可能100%track的。
: 不过考虑到平均0.4%的expense， 再加上track的损耗， 感觉也不少了。 因为我得和
: 房贷， 而不是和CD比。
: 刚才看fidelity的网站， 十年Corporate (A/A) 最高的yield是4.14%, Municipal (A/
: A)是3.5%
: 似乎就我个人情况， 自己去买十个bond会更划算点？
:
: ):
: .
|
S**P
发帖数: 1290 | 108 哦，我看错了。是平均0.27的expense。很多dmf etf的平均。
说十个是因为感觉股票差不多十个我比较comfortable。 价格也比较合适。是不是足够
diversify其实我觉得关系并不是很大，主要是看风险。
是要找本书看看，对bond了解太少了。反正要买也要等tax reform结果出来， 正好先
学习一下。
[在 wltsn (waterfall) 的大作中提到：]
:I'm not sure how you calculated 0.4% expense. It's 0.24%, which is
very
:close to the median tracking error of 0.26%, meaning they did a good job
:tracking the index before expense.
:I know there was a comment earlier in this thread that 10 bonds may be
:considered diversified. It's not even close, if you are talking about
:corporate bonds.
:You know, as much as I'm glad to help, I suggest you find and read some
:books first, rather than counting on getting information by pieces and bits
here. |
g*******s
发帖数: 65 | |
M*********n
发帖数: 137 | 110 看了这么多讨论，我来说点可以实际操作啊。
如果有一笔是较小资金量，个人brokerage账户的。10万20万及以下的，个人income税
又高。不想买股票或者股票已经买够了。可以买几个muni就好。要买没有federal tax
的。注意看清楚了。
如果是401k的钱，通常是不可以买单个bond, 也通常没有defined maturity bond
fund的选项的。公司提供的bond fund通常是固定duration的。这样的bond fund在长期
升息环境下本金是一定要跌的。短期可以起起落落，但是债券是个30年的牛市末期，未
来可能要跌很多很多年。长期来说，不推荐在401k里面买duration固定的bond fund。
如果是IRA或者是Roth IRA的钱。倒是可以考虑defined maturity bond fund或者
laddered bond portfolio。但是如果钱太少不值得折腾。如果你有个好的broker/
advisor专长bond的，可以帮你推荐几个bond就好。个人投资者几乎很难找到好的bond
deal，而且好deal转瞬即逝。
最适合laddered bond的，应该是小型的pension fund。一个人或者几个人own的。不能
涨太多也不能跌太多。每年老老实实有个3-5%return并且最好有cash flow的。 |
