q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 1 目前全世界只有通缩？
哪里有一点通胀的影子？
欧盟日本还在无限继续qe下去？
各国央行好像纷纷减息竞争比烂本国货币？
可以用一句话来形容？
纸币泛滥债务无穷？
结局肯定是恶性通胀？
啥时候出现？
不得而知？
联储必须加息？
目的可能是预防恶性通胀？
一点胡想？ |
p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 2 The bank hasn't lent out. So right now only money base expands greatly.
Once banks start to lend, then money supply would expand greatly. Take us
for example, Money base pre-crisis I about 800 bill and since require
reserve is 10 pct, the money supply is 8 trillion. After series of qe, now
the money base is around 4 trill. If the bank were doing wat they do, the m2
would've been 40 trill. Instead, banks wasn't willing to lend, and
put money at the fed, these are excessive reserve. So the m2 is only 11
trillion. That means the bank is now holding near 40 pct of reserve when
they only required to hold 10pct. When the bank starts to lend as they do
historically. Then money supply will expand rapidly an per money theory mv=
py. Inflation is all but certain unless
a) fed was able to manipulate the interest they pay on excess reserve to
prevent a outflow
b) fed can reduce the money base
c) some smart dude invent a smart way to proudce so the real output y can
expand greatly, so that an expansion of the left side of equation need not
necessarily cause a rise in p.
I seriously doubt c will happen, and with a or b, it will not happen without
consequence |
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 3 excess reserve 现在fed interest rate 0.25,
低息情况下银行宁愿在fed吃利息。fed现在在用reverse repo来处理 excess reserve,
最近没跟踪不知道进行如何了。 萝卜这文章是原创吗？ 非常不错
m2
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: The bank hasn't lent out. So right now only money base expands greatly.
: Once banks start to lend, then money supply would expand greatly. Take us
: for example, Money base pre-crisis I about 800 bill and since require
: reserve is 10 pct, the money supply is 8 trillion. After series of qe, now
: the money base is around 4 trill. If the bank were doing wat they do, the m2
: would've been 40 trill. Instead, banks wasn't willing to lend, and
: put money at the fed, these are excessive reserve. So the m2 is only 11
: trillion. That means the bank is now holding near 40 pct of reserve when
: they only required to hold 10pct. When the bank starts to lend as they do
: historically. Then money supply will expand rapidly an per money theory mv=
|
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 4 还有一点以前fed提过， 提高FFR的方法可能主要是通过提高银行的excess reserve 的
interest rate 来实现， 我一直对这一点比较纠结，加息主要为了限制流动， 但是用
给银行更多钱的方法来减少流动，这个一直搞不明白， 求大牛解惑
reserve,
【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】
: excess reserve 现在fed interest rate 0.25,
: 低息情况下银行宁愿在fed吃利息。fed现在在用reverse repo来处理 excess reserve,
: 最近没跟踪不知道进行如何了。 萝卜这文章是原创吗？ 非常不错
:
: m2
|
p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 5 Fed fund rate is the rate that banks charge each other when they lend out
their excessive reserve at the fed to their companion. Once the fed raise
excessive reserve rate. The fed fund rate will go higher since the fed is
putting a floor on the rate.
My point was, it's very easy for the fed to say. Either retiring
portfolio or raising excessive reserve rate, they will tighten financial
condition. And it seems that they believe this will be easy thing to do.
To put it simply, the problem with the fed is that they seem nvr to consider
a stagflation condition.
And there is little fed can help pple out of their misery once stagflation
is here.
But then it's really hard to predict. Maybe some guy invent a pill in
which one pill feeds the whole ...
[在 papyrus (小饭团) 的大作中提到：]
：还有一点以前fed提过， 提高FFR的方法可能主要是通过提高银行的excess reserve
的interest rate 来实现， 我一直对这一点比较纠结，加息主要为了限制流动， 但是
用给银行更多钱的方法来减少流动，这个一直搞不明白， 求大牛解惑
：
：........... |
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 6 萝卜， 你写的东西和你平常的操作， 不像是一个人啊～
consider
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: Fed fund rate is the rate that banks charge each other when they lend out
: their excessive reserve at the fed to their companion. Once the fed raise
: excessive reserve rate. The fed fund rate will go higher since the fed is
: putting a floor on the rate.
: My point was, it's very easy for the fed to say. Either retiring
: portfolio or raising excessive reserve rate, they will tighten financial
: condition. And it seems that they believe this will be easy thing to do.
: To put it simply, the problem with the fed is that they seem nvr to consider
: a stagflation condition.
: And there is little fed can help pple out of their misery once stagflation
|
l*********t
发帖数: 1067 | 7 大资金需要的是无风险盈利，比如以前的人民币，就这还要承担退出风险，现在还有套
在国内的，正在加紧流出，股市暴涨的一个目的就是给它们补偿，不要添乱，这是一个
目的。提高了超额储备利率这就是稳赚，这部分就沉淀下来了，变相控制了通胀，至于
以后，谁知道呢？所以世界平静不下来，要给这些钱找出路
【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】
: 还有一点以前fed提过， 提高FFR的方法可能主要是通过提高银行的excess reserve 的
: interest rate 来实现， 我一直对这一点比较纠结，加息主要为了限制流动， 但是用
: 给银行更多钱的方法来减少流动，这个一直搞不明白， 求大牛解惑
:
: reserve,
|
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 8 对，是这样的， 我甚至觉得去年罗素盘了一年跟这个也是有关联的
【在 l*********t 的大作中提到】
: 大资金需要的是无风险盈利，比如以前的人民币，就这还要承担退出风险，现在还有套
: 在国内的，正在加紧流出，股市暴涨的一个目的就是给它们补偿，不要添乱，这是一个
: 目的。提高了超额储备利率这就是稳赚，这部分就沉淀下来了，变相控制了通胀，至于
: 以后，谁知道呢？所以世界平静不下来，要给这些钱找出路
|
q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 9 谢谢您的深刻见解？
m2
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: The bank hasn't lent out. So right now only money base expands greatly.
: Once banks start to lend, then money supply would expand greatly. Take us
: for example, Money base pre-crisis I about 800 bill and since require
: reserve is 10 pct, the money supply is 8 trillion. After series of qe, now
: the money base is around 4 trill. If the bank were doing wat they do, the m2
: would've been 40 trill. Instead, banks wasn't willing to lend, and
: put money at the fed, these are excessive reserve. So the m2 is only 11
: trillion. That means the bank is now holding near 40 pct of reserve when
: they only required to hold 10pct. When the bank starts to lend as they do
: historically. Then money supply will expand rapidly an per money theory mv=
|
q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 10 赞您的专业见解？
reserve,
【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】
: excess reserve 现在fed interest rate 0.25,
: 低息情况下银行宁愿在fed吃利息。fed现在在用reverse repo来处理 excess reserve,
: 最近没跟踪不知道进行如何了。 萝卜这文章是原创吗？ 非常不错
:
: m2
|
|
|
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 11 有人聊这些我很happy哈？ 谢谢你挑的头？
【在 q********u 的大作中提到】
: 赞您的专业见解？
:
: reserve,
|
T*********s
发帖数: 2987 | 12 Thanks. very good explanation.
m2
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: The bank hasn't lent out. So right now only money base expands greatly.
: Once banks start to lend, then money supply would expand greatly. Take us
: for example, Money base pre-crisis I about 800 bill and since require
: reserve is 10 pct, the money supply is 8 trillion. After series of qe, now
: the money base is around 4 trill. If the bank were doing wat they do, the m2
: would've been 40 trill. Instead, banks wasn't willing to lend, and
: put money at the fed, these are excessive reserve. So the m2 is only 11
: trillion. That means the bank is now holding near 40 pct of reserve when
: they only required to hold 10pct. When the bank starts to lend as they do
: historically. Then money supply will expand rapidly an per money theory mv=
|
q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 13 您似乎属于行内的专门家？
自己就是个天不怕地不怕成天到晚胡思乱想的下里巴？
【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】
: 有人聊这些我很happy哈？ 谢谢你挑的头？
|
p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 14 I graduate with an economic degree. Lousy as my school maybe, I spend 4 yrs
on the crap. So I know a little about macroeconomics and money and banking.
For example, with the evolving situation in the oil mkt. I do rmb there is a
course call industrial organization in which there is a way to model what
happen when new entrant (us fracking) break the cartel. And what shifting
supply curve will do to equilibrium pricing.
But, after 8 years staring at the screen day in and night out, I do know
that with short term trading(anything shorter than a decade, which is what
we do here) none of those actually matter. And in fact, mines is even worse,
when I bet, I bet with less than one mth horizon, in essence, at this point
. I am gambling and nothing but. I have no money, no steady income, that'
;s the only possible way out for me now:(.
[在 papyrus (小饭团) 的大作中提到：]
：萝卜， 你写的东西和你平常的操作， 不像是一个人啊～
：
：........... |
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 15 Haha, 果然是这样， 我就觉得你分析弥漫着学院派的气息--
yrs
.
a
worse,
point
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: I graduate with an economic degree. Lousy as my school maybe, I spend 4 yrs
: on the crap. So I know a little about macroeconomics and money and banking.
: For example, with the evolving situation in the oil mkt. I do rmb there is a
: course call industrial organization in which there is a way to model what
: happen when new entrant (us fracking) break the cartel. And what shifting
: supply curve will do to equilibrium pricing.
: But, after 8 years staring at the screen day in and night out, I do know
: that with short term trading(anything shorter than a decade, which is what
: we do here) none of those actually matter. And in fact, mines is even worse,
: when I bet, I bet with less than one mth horizon, in essence, at this point
|
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 16 我不是行家最多就算搭点边儿？
平常很少出来说这些因为不太有自信？而且古板也没什么人提宏观？
我做这些分析就是为了保持个vision?
操作的时候还是主要看图？
【在 q********u 的大作中提到】
: 您似乎属于行内的专门家？
: 自己就是个天不怕地不怕成天到晚胡思乱想的下里巴？
|
p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 17 咋樣，裝家裝的挺像樣的吧。
[在 papyrus (小饭团) 的大作中提到：]
：Haha, 果然是这样， 我就觉得你分析弥漫着学院派的气息--
：【 在 poiuytre (不要笑，我拔的是大萝卜) 的大作中提到: 】
：........... |
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 18 像， 嘻嘻
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: 咋樣，裝家裝的挺像樣的吧。
: [在 papyrus (小饭团) 的大作中提到：]
: ：Haha, 果然是这样， 我就觉得你分析弥漫着学院派的气息--
: ：【 在 poiuytre (不要笑，我拔的是大萝卜) 的大作中提到: 】
: ：...........
|
D*********t
发帖数: 5748 | 19 大牛不是早就和你说了结论
意见不同的捏死就行
【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】
: 我不是行家最多就算搭点边儿？
: 平常很少出来说这些因为不太有自信？而且古板也没什么人提宏观？
: 我做这些分析就是为了保持个vision?
: 操作的时候还是主要看图？
|
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 20 FA抱团分析比较危险， 分析了九十九件事， 最后差一件没想到， 也有可能走偏。 听
听意见不同的， 防止过于激动 !(^^)!
【在 D*********t 的大作中提到】
: 大牛不是早就和你说了结论
: 意见不同的捏死就行
|
|
|
D*********t
发帖数: 5748 | 21 有那时间听别人分析，不如把晚饭碗洗了来的实在
【在 p*****s 的大作中提到】
: FA抱团分析比较危险， 分析了九十九件事， 最后差一件没想到， 也有可能走偏。 听
: 听意见不同的， 防止过于激动 !(^^)!
|
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 22 外面吃的。。。所以挺闲的
【在 D*********t 的大作中提到】
: 有那时间听别人分析，不如把晚饭碗洗了来的实在
|
k**o
发帖数: 15334 | |
