g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Chicago 讨论区 】
发信人: gogo2004 (挑灯看剑), 信区: Chicago
标 题: Re: 耶伦 DAMA 快出手啦
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 25 09:09:09 2015, 美东)
高盛总裁Gary Cohn周三(6月23日)表示，尽管数年以来市场一直在谈论美联储将于何
时以及如何升息，但这并不意味着市场已经为此做好准备了，若美联储真的开始加息，
市场参与者仍有可能被打个措手不及。
“我们可能并没有人们预计的准备的那么充分，”Cohn周三在高盛的网站上发布的视频
中表示，“美联储改变利率政策时，若市场上出现一些有趣的反应，那么我一点都不感
到意外。”
经济学家们预计，美联储在实行了6年多的近零利率之后，将于9月份首次升息。Cohn引
用了美国和欧元区的量化宽松政策作为宏观经济事件的例子，尽管市场长期以来已经预
见到这些政策的实施，但是政策公布之后仍引起了不小的市场波动。
“当真的发生时，往往不是事件的第一衍生事件让人们措手不及，”Coln指出，“而是
第二、第三和第四衍生事件让人们措手不及。”
作为全球最大的投行之一，高盛今年前三个月固定收益高达12%。高盛首席财务官
Harvey Schwartz指出，该时期的“一个主要议题就是央行政策”。
Cohn指出，大多数企业客户已经利用低利率发行债务和筹集资金。
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-24/goldman-s-coh
Years of discussing when and how the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates probably isn’t going to prevent market participants from being caught
off guard, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn said.
“We’re probably less ready than people think,” Cohn said on a podcast
posted Wednesday on the firm’s website. “It won’t at all be surprising to
me if there are some interesting market reactions based on official change
in rate policy by the Fed.”
Economists estimate the U.S. central bank will begin raising its benchmark
target in September after more than six years of near-zero rates. Cohn cited
quantitative easing in the U.S. and Europe as examples of macroeconomic
events that were long expected and still caused market swings when announced.
“When it does happen, it’s usually not the first-derivative event that
people are caught off guard by,” Cohn said. “They’re caught off guard by
the second-, third- and fourth-derivative events. It’s ‘Oh yeah, when
interest rates go up, that happens.’”
Goldman Sachs, one of the largest global trading banks, posted a 12 percent
jump in fixed-income revenue in the first three months of the year. Chief
Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz said that period “was dominated by one
primary theme, central bank policies.” |
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