i******e
发帖数: 217 | 1 http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/24/my-take-why-is-ncaa-ta
(CNN) – As a resident of the most Catholic state in the nation (
Massachusetts), I have watched for more than a decade as the Roman Catholic
Church responded to charges of priestly pedophilia with a troubling
combination of procrastination and obfuscation.
Far too often, Catholic priests, bishops and cardinals have identified not
with abused children but with their “band of brothers,” their fellow
priests.
In the case of the sex crimes committed by former assistant football coach
Jerry Sandusky, officials at Penn State also looked the other way.
They must be credited, however, with commissioning a no-holds-barred
investigation by former FBI Director Louis Freeh, whose report (PDF)
concluded that Penn State officials engaged in a cover-up that allowed
Sandusky’s sexual assaults on children to continue for years.
They should also be applauded for removing a statue of head coach Joe
Paterno, who for far too long was revered as a demigod at Penn State.
On Monday, however, the NCAA took the higher road. In a shocking departure
from the foot-dragging in Rome, it sided quickly and definitively with the
victims.
In a harsh ruling, the NCAA banned the Penn State football team from
postseason games for four years and took away 20 football scholarships per
year for the same period. It also ruled that the university will not receive
its portion of conference bowl revenues for those four years. And it fined
the school $60 million.
Equally significantly, it turned all of Penn State's football wins from 1998
forward into losses, stripping Paterno of his claim to fame as the
winningest football coach in NCAA history.
These penalties did not include the so-called “death penalty,” which would
have shut down the football program for a year or more. But, in truth, this
penalty is worse.
The NCAA acted boldly to send a message to collegiate athletic programs
elsewhere in the United States that neither the sex crimes of Sandusky nor
the “see no evil, hear no evil” response of Paterno and other Penn State
officials will be tolerated.
Still, I wonder whether the message will reverberate even further, perhaps
even to the hallowed halls of the Vatican.
I was not raised a Catholic, but in my youth I admired the Roman Catholic
Church for taking clear stands on the major moral issues of our time – on
abortion and war and poverty and capital punishment. I have watched with
both sadness and horror as this venerable institution has squandered the
moral capital it accrued over centuries in a misguided and un-Christian
attempt to wish away a problem that was staring it in its face for decades.
Although the Vatican has undertaken nothing like the independent Freeh
report to unearth how its institution lost its way, the U.S. Conference of
Catholic Bishops did commission an outside report delivered in May by
researchers from John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York. It also
weighed a parallel report by lay Catholics of the National Review Board in
June.
Neither of these documents read anything like the hard-hitting Freeh report,
however, and the Catholic Church did not respond to its crisis with either
the speed or the firmness of the NCAA.
In the Gospel of Luke, at the end of the Good Samaritan story, Jesus tells
his followers to “go and do likewise.”
That is the NCAA's message to the Vatican. | i******e
发帖数: 217 | 2 ylil，why are there so many pedophiles, child-abusers, perverts among the
catholic priests? is there something fundamentally wrong about the way
catholic churches run their priesthood?
and why is it so hard to punish these scum bags?
Catholic
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/24/my-take-why-is-ncaa-ta
: (CNN) – As a resident of the most Catholic state in the nation (
: Massachusetts), I have watched for more than a decade as the Roman Catholic
: Church responded to charges of priestly pedophilia with a troubling
: combination of procrastination and obfuscation.
: Far too often, Catholic priests, bishops and cardinals have identified not
: with abused children but with their “band of brothers,” their fellow
: priests.
: In the case of the sex crimes committed by former assistant football coach
: Jerry Sandusky, officials at Penn State also looked the other way.
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 3 does it bother you bringing your kids to the catholic church and get close
to these people? you never know maybe one of them looks at your kids and
lusts for something more...
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: ylil，why are there so many pedophiles, child-abusers, perverts among the
: catholic priests? is there something fundamentally wrong about the way
: catholic churches run their priesthood?
: and why is it so hard to punish these scum bags?
:
: Catholic
| E*****m
发帖数: 25615 | | y**l
发帖数: 714 | 5 你是怎么定义"so many"的？据Newsweek分析，按比例计算，儿童性虐待的人，在天主
教教会跟一般成人平均比例差不多。而且，在天主教教会中，儿童性虐待发生量已在70
年代后大幅下降。
教会确实有管理、处理失误的地方，很多人都谴责的。但近期已有明显改进。
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: ylil，why are there so many pedophiles, child-abusers, perverts among the
: catholic priests? is there something fundamentally wrong about the way
: catholic churches run their priesthood?
: and why is it so hard to punish these scum bags?
:
: Catholic
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 6 那小孩是不是也都不要上学、不要加入运动队了？不赞成因噎废食、因为少数人而否定
整个群体。
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: does it bother you bringing your kids to the catholic church and get close
: to these people? you never know maybe one of them looks at your kids and
: lusts for something more...
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 7 there is no doubt that "catholic priests" are more likely to be come
pedophile, child-abuser and sex pervert than the general public, just look
at the number of priests accused of such deeds, and consider just how many
catholic priests are out there
i did not say catholicism make people behave that way, i said catholic
priest are more likely to do such things
shamefully only a few of them got indicted
70
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 你是怎么定义"so many"的？据Newsweek分析，按比例计算，儿童性虐待的人，在天主
: 教教会跟一般成人平均比例差不多。而且，在天主教教会中，儿童性虐待发生量已在70
: 年代后大幅下降。
: 教会确实有管理、处理失误的地方，很多人都谴责的。但近期已有明显改进。
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 8 请注明信息来源。
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: there is no doubt that "catholic priests" are more likely to be come
: pedophile, child-abuser and sex pervert than the general public, just look
: at the number of priests accused of such deeds, and consider just how many
: catholic priests are out there
: i did not say catholicism make people behave that way, i said catholic
: priest are more likely to do such things
: shamefully only a few of them got indicted
:
: 70
| C*******t
发帖数: 766 | 9 http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/04/07/mean-men.html
70
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 你是怎么定义"so many"的？据Newsweek分析，按比例计算，儿童性虐待的人，在天主
: 教教会跟一般成人平均比例差不多。而且，在天主教教会中，儿童性虐待发生量已在70
: 年代后大幅下降。
: 教会确实有管理、处理失误的地方，很多人都谴责的。但近期已有明显改进。
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 10 http://www.bishop-accountability.org/AtAGlance/USCCB_Yearly_Dat
from 1950 to 2011, totally 6115 clerics have been credibly accused of
sexually abusing children
now how many catholic priests were out there from 1950-2011, half a million?
okay let's just say it is half a million, what does it mean?
that means you have a pedophile every 80 men
that looks normal to you?
and be clear, we are talking about sexually abusing children, not child-
abuse in general
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 请注明信息来源。
| | | i******e
发帖数: 217 | 11 http://www.bishop-accountability.org/AtAGlance/USCCB_Yearly_Dat
just read the numbers and tell me you actually feel safe to put your
children near these people
Number of Priests Accused of Sexually Abusing Children
As Reported by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops
with Numbers of Persons Alleging Abuse
Compiled by BishopAccountability.org
From reports commissioned by the USCCB
Updated April 10, 2012
As of April 10, 2012, the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) has
counted 6,115 clerics "not implausibly" and "credibly" accused in 1950-2011
of sexually abusing minors. The USCCB total omits allegations made in 2003.
As of April 10, 2012, the USCCB has counted 16,324 individuals who have
alleged that they were abused as minors by priests. The USCCB total omits
persons who made allegations in 2003.
In the table below, we provide year-by-year the USCCB's data – on accused
priests and persons making allegations – which add up to 6,115 accused
priests and 16,324 survivors. The numbers in the table are color-coded for
easier reference. We also provide links to all the USCCB source documents.
The USCCB hired the John Jay College of Criminal Justice to evaluate data
submitted by member bishops regarding the sexual abuse of minors by Catholic
priests, bishops, deacons, and seminarians. In its 2004 report, the John
Jay College found that, according to survey forms completed by the bishops,
they had received in 1950-2002 "not implausible" allegations of sexual abuse
of minors committed by 4,392 priests, including 12 bishops.
In 2004, the USCCB commissioned the Center for Applied Research in the
Apostolate (CARA) at Georgetown University to begin collecting annual data
on allegations and settlements, and starting in Spring 2005, CARA has
published a report each year. (See Bendyna's 2/15/05 letter to Skylstad
describing the commission, in the 2005 Report, PDF p. 12.) Among other data,
that report counts the number of diocesan and religious order priests "
credibly" accused of abuse during the previous calendar year, and states how
many of those had been accused in prior years or are being accused for the
first time. These data were obtained using a survey that was available to
the bishops and superiors of religious orders online. See, for example, the
2009 diocesan and religious order surveys (with aggregate U.S. numbers
filled in), and see below for the Manchester diocese's summaries of its
responses to the surveys.
The CARA report on 2011 allegations was released on April 10, 2012, along
with an audit of the implementation of the Charter. We have cached a copy of
that report for safekeeping.
Below we have collated the data on accused priests as provided in the John
Jay report, and supplemented that data with CARA's count of the number of
priests newly accused each year. Note that:
The USCCB does not maintain a running total of the number of priests who
have been accused. The table below supplies that missing total.
The USCCB has never released a count of the number of priests accused in
2003, which was a year when many victims came forward.
The USCCB and CARA counts include data from most U.S. dioceses, but a
smaller percentage of the religious orders have cooperated with the process.
As a result, accused religious order priests are under-represented. This
can be seen by comparing the percentage of accused religious order priests
with the percentage of total religious order priests at the bottom of the
table. Religious order priests account for only 21% of the accused, but
religious order priests constitute 32% of the total priests in the United
States.
The USCCB has not released the names of the 6,115 clerics who have been
accused.
A small number of U.S. bishops have released lists of accused priests;
see our collection of links to those bishops' lists.
BishopAccountability.org maintains a Database of Accused Priests and
other accused clergy. As of February 10, 2012, there were 3,700 names in
that database, including 3,303 priests, 22 bishops, 50 deacons, and 21
seminarians, for a total of 3,396 accused clerics in those categories. But
the USCCB counts a combined total of 6,115 accused priests, bishops, deacons
, and seminarians. This means that there are at least 2,719 accused clerics
whose names are still secret. In other words, of the 6,115 total, at least
44 percent of the names are being kept secret by bishops and superiors of
religious orders.
The 6,115 priests who are now counted by the U.S. bishops as accused
comprise 5.6% of the 109,694 priests in ministry 1950-2002. Yet as recently
as November 2002, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, now Pope Benedict XVI, stated
in an interview: "In the United States, there is constant news on this topic
, but less than 1% of priests are guilty of acts of this type."
In U.S. dioceses where there is something like full disclosure, the
percentage of accused priests is approaching 10 percent (see examples). If
10 percent of priests nationwide are ultimately accused of abuse, the total
would rise to 10,969 accused priests.
Years Total Newly
Accused in Each Time Period Newly Accused Diocesan Clerics in Each Time
Period Newly Accused Religious Order Clerics in Each Time Period
Newly Accused Other Clerics in Each Time Period Source Notes
1950-2002
4,392
10,667
survivors
3,282 929
181
10,667
survivors
John Jay Report for the USCCB, pp. 28 and 42. See also a PDF of the John
Jay report. The "diocesan" category includes diocesan priests, extern
priests, eparchian priests, deacons, bishops, seminarians, and other. In
addition to 3,282 diocesan priests and 929 religious order priests, the John
Jay report counted 181 priests who were accused of abuse but whose "
clerical status" (diocesan or religious) was not provided in the source
surveys. The John Jay researchers included priests "not implausibly" accused.
2003 NA NA NA NA The USCCB never released data for
2003.
2004
387
1,083
survivors of new and previously accused priests
311
889
survivors of new and previously accused priests
76
194
survivors of new and previously accused priests
CARA Report on 2004 (PDF pp. 12, 18-21, 34-47, no surveys provided
) The CARA report states (p. 8): "Of the 134 [religious order] priests
and deacons against whom allegations
were made ... [l]ess than half, 43 percent ... had been the
subject of previous allegations prior to January 1, 2004." I.e., 57% of the
134 were newly accused, or 76.38. We have rounded down to 76.
2005
203
777
survivors of new and previously accused priests
158
690
survivors of new and previously accused priests
45
87
survivors of new and previously accused priests
CARA Report on 2005 (PDF pp. 37-57, 57-60; i.e., Chapters 5 and 6,
Appendices B and C [blank surveys]) The CARA report states (p. 40): "Of
the 69 religious priests ... [j]ust over a third, 35 percent ... had
already been the subject of previous allegations in prior years." I.e., 65%
of the 69 were newly accused, or 44.85. We have rounded up to 45.
2006
189
710
survivors of new and previously accused priests
168
632
survivors of new and previously accused priests
21
78
survivors of new and previously accused priests
CARA Report on 2006 (PDF pp. 18-40, 46-49; i.e., Chapter 3;
Appendices I and II [surveys populated with totals; see line items 31 and 38
in each survey for the relevant counts])
2007
204
689
survivors of new and previously accused priests
158
598
survivors of new and previously accused priests
46
91
survivors of new and previously accused priests
CARA Report on 2007 (PDF pp. 34-56, 68-71; i.e., Chapter 4 and
Appendices B and C [surveys populated with totals; see line items 31 and 38
in each survey for the relevant counts])
2008
225
796
survivors of new and previously accused priests
173
620
survivors of new and previously accused priests
52
176
survivors of new and previously accused priests
CARA Report on 2008 (PDF pp. 35-57, 70-73; i.e., Chapter 4 and
Appendices B and C [surveys populated with totals; see line items 31 and 38
in each survey for the relevant counts])
2009
169
513
survivors of new and previously accused priests
130
398
survivors of new and previously accused priests
39
115
survivors of new and previously accused priests
CARA Report on 2009 (Chapter 4, Appendices B and C [surveys
populated with totals; see line items 31 and 38 in each survey for the
relevant counts])
2010
179
501
survivors of new and previously accused priests
144
426
survivors of new and previously accused priests
35
75
survivors of new and previously accused priests
CARA Report on 2010 (PDF pp. 30-52, 65-68, i.e., Appendices B and
C [surveys populated with totals; see line items 31 and 38 in each survey
for the relevant counts])
2011
167
588
survivors of new and previously accused priests
147
489
survivors of new and previously accused priests
20
99
survivors of new and previously accused priests
CARA Report on 2011 (PDF pp. 39-61, 73-76, i.e., Appendices B and
C [surveys populated with totals; see line items 31 and 38 in each survey
for the relevant counts])
Grand Total of Accused Priests 6,115 4,671 1,263 181
Ratio 76% 21% 3%
Total U.S. Priests in 2010 40,788 27,614 13,174
Data from Official Catholic Directory (New York: Kenedy & Sons, 2010)
Ratio 67% 32%
Total Survivors 16,324 4,742 915 10,667
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 请注明信息来源。
| E*****m
发帖数: 25615 | 12
這問題你越吵，人家會拿出越多資料，天主教越難看，你考慮一下吧！
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 那小孩是不是也都不要上学、不要加入运动队了？不赞成因噎废食、因为少数人而否定
: 整个群体。
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 13 这有什么，有缺点就承认，不是难看不难看的问题。只有认识到缺点才能改进。以前天
主教比这难看的多了。
【在 E*****m 的大作中提到】
:
: 這問題你越吵，人家會拿出越多資料，天主教越難看，你考慮一下吧！
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 14 我看的资料好像是4%唉，你这1/80还低了呢。
你知道普通人中有这一问题的比率么？我认为只有比较之后才能得出有意义的结论。
million?
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: http://www.bishop-accountability.org/AtAGlance/USCCB_Yearly_Dat
: just read the numbers and tell me you actually feel safe to put your
: children near these people
: Number of Priests Accused of Sexually Abusing Children
: As Reported by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops
: with Numbers of Persons Alleging Abuse
: Compiled by BishopAccountability.org
: From reports commissioned by the USCCB
: Updated April 10, 2012
: As of April 10, 2012, the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) has
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 15 so are you saying 1 in 25 catholic priests committed sexual child abuse?
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 我看的资料好像是4%唉，你这1/80还低了呢。
: 你知道普通人中有这一问题的比率么？我认为只有比较之后才能得出有意义的结论。
:
: million?
| g****m
发帖数: 996 | 16 你敢不敢让你的孩子和神父单独相处相处？
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 那小孩是不是也都不要上学、不要加入运动队了？不赞成因噎废食、因为少数人而否定
: 整个群体。
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 17 维基说的：The 4,392 priests who were accused amount to approximately 4% of
the 109,694 priests in active ministry during that time.
不过是accused，不是committed.
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: so are you saying 1 in 25 catholic priests committed sexual child abuse?
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 18 这问题问的……孩子当然只能跟我了解和信任的人单独相处了，无论是神父、老师、邻
居、还是朋友，都是一样的。
【在 g****m 的大作中提到】
: 你敢不敢让你的孩子和神父单独相处相处？
| l*****a
发帖数: 187 | 19 "不过"是accused, 经典
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 维基说的：The 4,392 priests who were accused amount to approximately 4% of
: the 109,694 priests in active ministry during that time.
: 不过是accused，不是committed.
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 20 神父行为正常、检点，谁会去accuse？真是笑话
看来之前1/80真是低估了，应该是1/25
就是说，每25个天主教神父就有1个性侵犯儿童
如果这个比例正常，美国一亿六千万男人中应该有640万个男人性侵犯儿童
美国五十个州中只有17个州总人口高于600万。
如果只算男性人口，只有6个州的男人数量超过600万。
如果这个比例正常，中国7亿男人中约有2800万性侵犯儿童，比北京总人口还多，比上
海总人口也多。实际上中国只有九个省有这么多的男人。
如果这个比例正常，世界约35亿男人中会有1.4亿男人性侵犯儿童，和俄罗斯总人口一
样多，大概是欧洲总人口的五分之一。事实上世界只有三个国家有这么多的男人，中国
，印度和美国。第四的印尼只有1.2亿左右男人。
我还真是不知道普通男人里面性侵犯儿童的比例有多少，没有资料，不过按照你这个“
正常比例”算一下，美国，中国和世界上性侵犯儿童的男人，真是多得让让人汗毛倒竖
阿。。。
上面的数据都是可以查到的，你自己算算，如果你觉得这个比例正常，就正常咯
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 维基说的：The 4,392 priests who were accused amount to approximately 4% of
: the 109,694 priests in active ministry during that time.
: 不过是accused，不是committed.
| | | i******e
发帖数: 217 | 21 再简单点说，你带你家孩子逛趟街，运气不好都可以被性侵好几次了
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 维基说的：The 4,392 priests who were accused amount to approximately 4% of
: the 109,694 priests in active ministry during that time.
: 不过是accused，不是committed.
| E*****m
发帖数: 25615 | 22 你覺得原因是什麼？
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 这有什么，有缺点就承认，不是难看不难看的问题。只有认识到缺点才能改进。以前天
: 主教比这难看的多了。
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 23 就怕你这种拿几个数字随便算的。你那所谓美国一亿六千万男人是小孩和老人都包括在
内的，不能用作计算的基数。神父那个数据是52年间的累积投诉案例，除以这52年间在
职神父的总人数。再告诉你一个信息，美国仅2005年一年就有83600起被证实的儿童性
侵案例（你可以去查维基），投诉的数目肯定比这个多，你自己算算52年有多少吧；然
后你再比较一下。
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: 神父行为正常、检点，谁会去accuse？真是笑话
: 看来之前1/80真是低估了，应该是1/25
: 就是说，每25个天主教神父就有1个性侵犯儿童
: 如果这个比例正常，美国一亿六千万男人中应该有640万个男人性侵犯儿童
: 美国五十个州中只有17个州总人口高于600万。
: 如果只算男性人口，只有6个州的男人数量超过600万。
: 如果这个比例正常，中国7亿男人中约有2800万性侵犯儿童，比北京总人口还多，比上
: 海总人口也多。实际上中国只有九个省有这么多的男人。
: 如果这个比例正常，世界约35亿男人中会有1.4亿男人性侵犯儿童，和俄罗斯总人口一
: 样多，大概是欧洲总人口的五分之一。事实上世界只有三个国家有这么多的男人，中国
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 24 你这统计学和概率论还真得补习。
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: 再简单点说，你带你家孩子逛趟街，运气不好都可以被性侵好几次了
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 25 我这是用简单的比方告诉你1/25的神父儿童性侵犯概率是什么概念
如果你还是认为1/25的概率在普通人里面也算正常，那我们来大概算算好了，就用你给
的数据
1/25的概率对神父是不变的，因为是52年的统计结果，这个你也承认了
对于普通人，我们用你给的2005年的数据好了，minor年龄以常规14岁为界
2005年美国男人总数大约1.49亿，其中大于14岁的占80%左右，一共1.19亿。
性侵案件83600。我们不算累犯，最多也就是83600左右个人吧，算下来也是1/1426，和
1/25差了多少？57倍。
再不满意，我们只算20-60岁之间的，大概占人口60%，也就是8940万，这也是1/1069，
和1/25差了多少？42倍。
不要用什么投诉/accuse这类文字做文章，catholic church对这个丑闻的掩盖的程度，
花的金钱和力气，加上神父这个行当本身的社会地位，还不知道还有多少受害者没有站
出来呢！而且人/人概率这个数据，1年和52年能有多大区别？
你要是不服，我们慢慢算，你划道道，我奉陪到底
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 就怕你这种拿几个数字随便算的。你那所谓美国一亿六千万男人是小孩和老人都包括在
: 内的，不能用作计算的基数。神父那个数据是52年间的累积投诉案例，除以这52年间在
: 职神父的总人数。再告诉你一个信息，美国仅2005年一年就有83600起被证实的儿童性
: 侵案例（你可以去查维基），投诉的数目肯定比这个多，你自己算算52年有多少吧；然
: 后你再比较一下。
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 26 你越说越暴露了你的统计概率基础不行啊。52年累积4%的概率，让你说成了每年4%的概
率。你知道每年4%的概率，52年累积是多少么？不跟你多讲了。学好统计概率再来吧。
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: 我这是用简单的比方告诉你1/25的神父儿童性侵犯概率是什么概念
: 如果你还是认为1/25的概率在普通人里面也算正常，那我们来大概算算好了，就用你给
: 的数据
: 1/25的概率对神父是不变的，因为是52年的统计结果，这个你也承认了
: 对于普通人，我们用你给的2005年的数据好了，minor年龄以常规14岁为界
: 2005年美国男人总数大约1.49亿，其中大于14岁的占80%左右，一共1.19亿。
: 性侵案件83600。我们不算累犯，最多也就是83600左右个人吧，算下来也是1/1426，和
: 1/25差了多少？57倍。
: 再不满意，我们只算20-60岁之间的，大概占人口60%，也就是8940万，这也是1/1069，
: 和1/25差了多少？42倍。
| E*****m
发帖数: 25615 | 27 人家算性侵犯人口的比例， 你怎麼搞成每年的比例？ 有點惡搞吧？
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 你越说越暴露了你的统计概率基础不行啊。52年累积4%的概率，让你说成了每年4%的概
: 率。你知道每年4%的概率，52年累积是多少么？不跟你多讲了。学好统计概率再来吧。
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 28 你这太搞了吧！？
谁说这个是每年4%的概率了？
这是每25个人就有1个人的问题，和多少年有什么关系？
你到底名不明白应该怎么算？不要说概率统计不好，你连问题都没搞清楚！
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 你越说越暴露了你的统计概率基础不行啊。52年累积4%的概率，让你说成了每年4%的概
: 率。你知道每年4%的概率，52年累积是多少么？不跟你多讲了。学好统计概率再来吧。
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 29 不要回避问题，不明白我们慢慢讲，我们慢慢算，算到你明白为止
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 你越说越暴露了你的统计概率基础不行啊。52年累积4%的概率，让你说成了每年4%的概
: 率。你知道每年4%的概率，52年累积是多少么？不跟你多讲了。学好统计概率再来吧。
| y**l
发帖数: 714 | 30 4%的人50年内有问题，和4%的人1年内有问题，你说一样么？捣浆糊。
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: 你这太搞了吧！？
: 谁说这个是每年4%的概率了？
: 这是每25个人就有1个人的问题，和多少年有什么关系？
: 你到底名不明白应该怎么算？不要说概率统计不好，你连问题都没搞清楚！
| | | i******e
发帖数: 217 | 31 那我们退一万步讲吧
x%的人1年内有问题
y%的人52年内有问题
其中很多人对小孩子没有这方面的性趣
y/x << 52
这个结论你认同么？
【在 y**l 的大作中提到】
: 4%的人50年内有问题，和4%的人1年内有问题，你说一样么？捣浆糊。
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 32 认同么？
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: 那我们退一万步讲吧
: x%的人1年内有问题
: y%的人52年内有问题
: 其中很多人对小孩子没有这方面的性趣
: y/x << 52
: 这个结论你认同么？
| s*********a
发帖数: 801 | 33 Hundreds of Roman Catholic priests across the United States have died of
AIDS-related illnesses, and hundreds more are living with HIV, the virus
that causes the disease. The actual number of AIDS deaths is difficult to
determine. But it appears priests are dying of AIDS at a rate at least four
times that of the general U.S. population, according to estimates from
medical experts and priests and an analysis of health statistics by The
Kansas City Star. | E*****m
发帖数: 25615 | 34 這太神奇了！
four
【在 s*********a 的大作中提到】
: Hundreds of Roman Catholic priests across the United States have died of
: AIDS-related illnesses, and hundreds more are living with HIV, the virus
: that causes the disease. The actual number of AIDS deaths is difficult to
: determine. But it appears priests are dying of AIDS at a rate at least four
: times that of the general U.S. population, according to estimates from
: medical experts and priests and an analysis of health statistics by The
: Kansas City Star.
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 35 继续问，认同吗？
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: 那我们退一万步讲吧
: x%的人1年内有问题
: y%的人52年内有问题
: 其中很多人对小孩子没有这方面的性趣
: y/x << 52
: 这个结论你认同么？
| i******e
发帖数: 217 | 36 你应该猜到接下来的结论是什么了
因为y/x << 52 是合理的
所以根据你的数据，如果用2005年一年的数据作为x，那么普通人52年的性侵犯儿童概
率y应该满足
y << 52x
我们算过了，2005年的数据给出普通人性侵犯儿童的概率是1/1426
所以普通人52年性侵犯儿童的概率
y << 52/1426 < 1/25
这就证明了普通人性侵犯儿童的概率比神父小得多，你不同意么？
其实这根本就是no brainer，神父可能并不会比普通人有更高比例的恋童情节等等，但
就是因为作为神父他没有正常的性方面的满足和发泄，所以更容易引发这方面的需求以
至于行差踏错。可以说catholic priesthood的规条就像一个放大镜，把性方面一些畸
形的需求放大了，这很难理解么？
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: 那我们退一万步讲吧
: x%的人1年内有问题
: y%的人52年内有问题
: 其中很多人对小孩子没有这方面的性趣
: y/x << 52
: 这个结论你认同么？
| l*****a
发帖数: 38403 | 37 牧师虐童有没有数据？我记得好像也挺可观
【在 i******e 的大作中提到】
: 你应该猜到接下来的结论是什么了
: 因为y/x << 52 是合理的
: 所以根据你的数据，如果用2005年一年的数据作为x，那么普通人52年的性侵犯儿童概
: 率y应该满足
: y << 52x
: 我们算过了，2005年的数据给出普通人性侵犯儿童的概率是1/1426
: 所以普通人52年性侵犯儿童的概率
: y << 52/1426 < 1/25
: 这就证明了普通人性侵犯儿童的概率比神父小得多，你不同意么？
: 其实这根本就是no brainer，神父可能并不会比普通人有更高比例的恋童情节等等，但
| l*****a
发帖数: 38403 | |
|
