c******i
发帖数: 4091 | 1 这厮用的比喻里genie就是gov，大政府就是神啊。
We Love What Warren Buffett Says About Life, Luck, And Winning The 'Ovarian
Lottery'
Joe Weisenthal
Dec. 10, 2013, 5:04 AM 13,365 9
warren buffett
REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
Warren Buffett recently met with a group of MBA students.
A student asked him what shaped his political views (Buffett is a Democrat).
The famous investor offered a great thought experiment, which helped him
think through the kind of world he wants to live in. In it he characterizes
something he calls the "Ovarian Lottery":
My political views were formed by this process. Just imagine that it is 24
hours before you are born. A genie comes and says to you in the womb, “You
look like an extraordinarily responsible, intelligent, potential human being
. [You're] going to emerge in 24 hours and it is an enormous responsibility
I am going to assign to you — determination of the political, economic and
social system into which you are going to emerge. You set the rules, any
political system, democracy, parliamentary, anything you wish — you can set
the economic structure, communistic, capitalistic, set anything in motion
and I guarantee you that when you emerge this world will exist for you, your
children and grandchildren.
What’s the catch? One catch — just before you emerge you have to go
through a huge bucket with 7 billion slips, one for each human. Dip your
hand in and that is what you get — you could be born intelligent or not
intelligent, born healthy or disabled, born black or white, born in the US
or in Bangladesh, etc. You have no idea which slip you will get. Not knowing
which slip you are going to get, how would you design the world? Do you
want men to push around females? It’s a 50/50 chance you get female. If you
think about the political world, you want a system that gets what people
want. You want more and more output because you’ll have more wealth to
share around.
The US is a great system, turns out $50,000 GDP per capita, 6 times the
amount when I was born in just one lifetime. But not knowing what slip you
get, you want a system that once it produces output, you don’t want anyone
to be left behind. You want to incentivize the top performers, don’t want
equality in results, but do want something that those who get the bad
tickets still have a decent life. You also don’t want fear in people’s
minds — fear of lack of money in old age, fear of cost of health care. I
call this the “Ovarian Lottery.”
My sisters didn’t get the same ticket. Expectations for them were that they
would marry well, or if they work, would work as a nurse, teacher, etc. If
you are designing the world knowing 50/50 male or female, you don’t want
this type of world for women — you could get female. Design your world this
way; this should be your philosophy. I look at Forbes 400, look at their
figures and see how it’s gone up in the last 30 years. Americans at the
bottom are also improving, and that is great, but we don’t want that degree
of inequality. Only governments can correct that. Right way to look at it
is the standpoint of how you would view the world if you didn’t know who
you would be. If you’re not willing to gamble with your slip out of 100
random slips, you are lucky! The top 1% of 7 billion people. Everyone is
wired differently. You can’t say you do everything yourself. We all have
teachers, and people before us who led us to where we are. We can’t let
people fall too far behind. You all definitely got good slips.
Even if you don't buy Buffett's idea that only government can alleviate
certain forms of inequality, one thing that's great about Buffett is his
appreciation of luck, and the realization that he won a lottery ticket by
dint of his birth. So many of our elites can't stop talking about how hard
they worked, or the importance of taking risk and all that. Buffett readily
acknowledges that he had incredible fortune from the moment he was born.
At the same event, Warren Buffett also explained why he thought George W.
Bush uttered the greatest economic statement of all time.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-on-the-ovarian-lottery-2013-12#ixzz2n6Os6Hz5 | S*****n
发帖数: 692 | 2 Paul Krugman 也用过类似的桥段。 其实是典型的偷换概念， 构造一个不可能存在的
理想社会来给中央集权找理由。 | c******i
发帖数: 4091 | 3 厮们都是一伙儿的
kayenesian elites
新的奴隶主 |
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