c******h
发帖数: 454 | 1 指数也有很贵的时候。无脑买指数不能算投资。投资还要靠仔细分析，个股也可以投资
。大大底于book value 买加safety margin 是投资。当十年平均PE远离平均值，无脑
入index，也是危险的。再差的股票，如希腊，只要足够便宜再加diversify 也可以是
invest. | M********r
发帖数: 278 | 2 Key to index investing is not index per se. Index investors normally have a
diversified and balnced portfolio with a basket of indexes that cover
equities and bonds, domestic and foreign. some may even include real estate
and commodities. Risk adjusted returned is then determined by the
composition of the portfolio. Yes, at times some index in the portfolio may
be overvalued, but the risk associated with these overvalued assets are
mitigated by other non-correlated assets. As a passive investor, I don't
time the market and make investment decision based on valuation. (I am not a
financial professional and I honestly don't know how to valuate the market.
) But I am confident my diversified portfolio can weather the ups and downs
of the market.
【在 c******h 的大作中提到】
: 指数也有很贵的时候。无脑买指数不能算投资。投资还要靠仔细分析，个股也可以投资
: 。大大底于book value 买加safety margin 是投资。当十年平均PE远离平均值，无脑
: 入index，也是危险的。再差的股票，如希腊，只要足够便宜再加diversify 也可以是
: invest.
| c******h
发帖数: 454 | 3 But.. These days market is more correlated.
So the diversity may not work very well.
Bond is very high with ultra low interest.
Equity is high due to QE.
Real estate is high due to QE.
So the market is skewed by FED.
a
estate
may
a
market.
downs
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: Key to index investing is not index per se. Index investors normally have a
: diversified and balnced portfolio with a basket of indexes that cover
: equities and bonds, domestic and foreign. some may even include real estate
: and commodities. Risk adjusted returned is then determined by the
: composition of the portfolio. Yes, at times some index in the portfolio may
: be overvalued, but the risk associated with these overvalued assets are
: mitigated by other non-correlated assets. As a passive investor, I don't
: time the market and make investment decision based on valuation. (I am not a
: financial professional and I honestly don't know how to valuate the market.
: ) But I am confident my diversified portfolio can weather the ups and downs
| M********r
发帖数: 278 | 4 You are right that correlations among assets vary over time. If you think
now is bad, consider the 70's when the correlation btw US stock and US bonds
was around 0.6-0.7 instead of a negative number. This simply reflects the
randomness in the returns of these assets. In the long term, however, bonds
are still effective diversifiers against stocks. Also, we should consider "
magnitude", that is when assets become correlated than usual, the magnitude
of price movements differs. Almost always, bond prices are less volatile
than stocks. Lastly, the decision to go with index investing for many
passive investors is based on a humble realization that I, the investor, don
't have the ability to time the market. | r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 5
这个说法听起来有道理, 实际上也是problematic, because it all depends on your
perspective.
For example, current S&P 500 index PE is 16.7, is it expensive?
You might say yes because 16.7 is higher than the average over the past
century; but you might say no because 16.7 is still at a 5% discount to the
average PE over the past 15 years.
Does 5% discount to past 15-yr average represent a buying opportunity? Well,
that again depends on your geographical perspective.
For example, European equities are trading at an 18% discount to their past
15-year average PE, sounds cheaper, right?
But wait, the emerging markets are even cheaper because their PE is at a
more than 20% discount to its past 15-year average.
If you believe the European market and Emerging markets are cheap and want
to add them to your portfolio, you can consider Vanguar'd FTSE European ETF
(VGK) and iShares Emerging Markets Dividend ETF (DVYE).
In the end, building a sufficiently diversified portfolio and investing DCA
will help you grow in the long term, in the short term? It's all speculative
.
【在 c******h 的大作中提到】
: 指数也有很贵的时候。无脑买指数不能算投资。投资还要靠仔细分析，个股也可以投资
: 。大大底于book value 买加safety margin 是投资。当十年平均PE远离平均值，无脑
: 入index，也是危险的。再差的股票，如希腊，只要足够便宜再加diversify 也可以是
: invest.
| c******h
发帖数: 454 | 6 PE值并不是一个很好的指标。因为earning 变化非常大.
P book 是个好参数。
Book value 是其帐面价值。再减去不动产，机器厂房 的working capital 就更好。
再把库存打50％折扣后的就其本是公司清盘价。再减去30％的安全边际。这样的组合是
非常有利的。
your
the
Well,
past
【在 r****m 的大作中提到】
:
: 这个说法听起来有道理, 实际上也是problematic, because it all depends on your
: perspective.
: For example, current S&P 500 index PE is 16.7, is it expensive?
: You might say yes because 16.7 is higher than the average over the past
: century; but you might say no because 16.7 is still at a 5% discount to the
: average PE over the past 15 years.
: Does 5% discount to past 15-yr average represent a buying opportunity? Well,
: that again depends on your geographical perspective.
: For example, European equities are trading at an 18% discount to their past
| r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 7 I agree. Tobin's q is a better metric than PE, and it's been proven by real
data. |
|
