s*****j
发帖数: 136 | 1 really cannot get the idea how this works.
if we only consider the interest, which is the really costs, 30 year 4.375
the monthly interest is higher than 15 yera 4.0... so, even I only live in
my hosue for a short time, 15 year is bettern than 30 year, do I get it
right? the principal part, you either put it into your bank, or to your
house, does not matter.. | p*a
发帖数: 3350 | 2 这里的人咋都这么土鳖呢？为啥不全款买房？一分钱利息都不用付。
375
in
【在 s*****j 的大作中提到】
: really cannot get the idea how this works.
: if we only consider the interest, which is the really costs, 30 year 4.375
: the monthly interest is higher than 15 yera 4.0... so, even I only live in
: my hosue for a short time, 15 year is bettern than 30 year, do I get it
: right? the principal part, you either put it into your bank, or to your
: house, does not matter..
| w*******g
发帖数: 9932 | 3 it is not true.
375
in
【在 s*****j 的大作中提到】
: really cannot get the idea how this works.
: if we only consider the interest, which is the really costs, 30 year 4.375
: the monthly interest is higher than 15 yera 4.0... so, even I only live in
: my hosue for a short time, 15 year is bettern than 30 year, do I get it
: right? the principal part, you either put it into your bank, or to your
: house, does not matter..
| b*d
发帖数: 9308 | 4 15年还是30年完全是看个人的情况而定，没有一个统一适用的法则。现在的利率这么低
，很多人宁可多借点钱，每个月少还一点，然后投资在其他地方。
375
in
【在 s*****j 的大作中提到】
: really cannot get the idea how this works.
: if we only consider the interest, which is the really costs, 30 year 4.375
: the monthly interest is higher than 15 yera 4.0... so, even I only live in
: my hosue for a short time, 15 year is bettern than 30 year, do I get it
: right? the principal part, you either put it into your bank, or to your
: house, does not matter..
| s********n
发帖数: 4535 | 5 15年的话你需要投入的principal就多了，对很多房子贵的的人来说这是个挺大的负担
375
in
【在 s*****j 的大作中提到】
: really cannot get the idea how this works.
: if we only consider the interest, which is the really costs, 30 year 4.375
: the monthly interest is higher than 15 yera 4.0... so, even I only live in
: my hosue for a short time, 15 year is bettern than 30 year, do I get it
: right? the principal part, you either put it into your bank, or to your
: house, does not matter..
| s*****j
发帖数: 136 | 6 So if a familiy can afford 15 year, is 15 year better than 30 year?
we are in texas. ,the texas house value never go up, and hard to win from
stock market, and too late to enter into china house market,,, anyway, all
the investment have the possibility to lose money.... the only guarteen
win possibility is the bank rate goes higher in next few years. but how
high it could be. 5%?
if loan amt $300K, and the bank rate goes up to 5% at year end,2010, than
in next 15 years, (2011-2025), 30 y | n*********e
发帖数: 25274 | 7 30年比15年好,是基于通货膨胀的假设.
如果象日本那样通货萎缩,那15年比30年要好多了. | T*U
发帖数: 22634 | 8 you always pay in advance. 30 years is the worst case, so you have some
buffer time.
from
anyway, all
guarteen
how
than
than
people
pay
【在 s*****j 的大作中提到】
: So if a familiy can afford 15 year, is 15 year better than 30 year?
: we are in texas. ,the texas house value never go up, and hard to win from
: stock market, and too late to enter into china house market,,, anyway, all
: the investment have the possibility to lose money.... the only guarteen
: win possibility is the bank rate goes higher in next few years. but how
: high it could be. 5%?
: if loan amt $300K, and the bank rate goes up to 5% at year end,2010, than
: in next 15 years, (2011-2025), 30 y
| l****l
发帖数: 3394 | 9 我玩的是7年ARM。如果7年之后还没卖 (20% chance)，就扔进去1/3principal，然后玩
15年fix。
怎么算都比30年fix划算啊。。。 | j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 10 By that time, the rate for 15 year fixed can be higher than 30 year fixed
now.
【在 l****l 的大作中提到】
: 我玩的是7年ARM。如果7年之后还没卖 (20% chance)，就扔进去1/3principal，然后玩
: 15年fix。
: 怎么算都比30年fix划算啊。。。
| | | c*****r
发帖数: 2608 | 11 你不知道那时的 market 怎么样
【在 l****l 的大作中提到】
: 我玩的是7年ARM。如果7年之后还没卖 (20% chance)，就扔进去1/3principal，然后玩
: 15年fix。
: 怎么算都比30年fix划算啊。。。
| s******8
发帖数: 4192 | 12 实际上对于老中来说variable最好。过去30年variable大概比30年省30%左右的利息。当然，美国没有variable，许多人靠HELOC曲线做。
30年好于15年是对老美来说的。月光，没存款，每月的固定开销越少越好。 | o*****e
发帖数: 354 | 13 我们是从实用角度考虑的，没有考虑太多“投资效果”：
30年的贷款，月付小于15年的贷款；如果你的贷款允许你提前付清，那边我们可以在条
件允许的情况下每月多付些本金；如果条件不允许，就只付应该的月付额。这样子对于
自己来说，相对可以调节手头的流动资金；
如果（1）你能支付15年的贷款（2）保证家庭收入的稳定，那么15年的就划算很多了。
all
【在 s*****j 的大作中提到】
: So if a familiy can afford 15 year, is 15 year better than 30 year?
: we are in texas. ,the texas house value never go up, and hard to win from
: stock market, and too late to enter into china house market,,, anyway, all
: the investment have the possibility to lose money.... the only guarteen
: win possibility is the bank rate goes higher in next few years. but how
: high it could be. 5%?
: if loan amt $300K, and the bank rate goes up to 5% at year end,2010, than
: in next 15 years, (2011-2025), 30 y
| l*******n
发帖数: 2718 | 14 doesn't matter. Most Chinese families have the ability to pay off in 7 years.
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: 你不知道那时的 market 怎么样
| l****l
发帖数: 3394 | 15 why do you care. You are paying less interest to the bank.
【在 j***b 的大作中提到】
: By that time, the rate for 15 year fixed can be higher than 30 year fixed
: now.
| l****l
发帖数: 3394 | 16 and i think paying $28000 more in 7 years just for that insurance is not
wise.
Think about this economy. If the interest rate can go back to 8%, how
fabulous
can the housing market be!!! I don't see that coming anytime soon. And
remember, you can always pay back when you want. I don't have the number
but
just for people around me, 90% of the mortgage that Chinese do won't stay
more
than 10 years. Then why even bother fix for 30 years.
years.
【在 l*******n 的大作中提到】
: doesn't matter. Most Chinese families have the ability to pay off in 7 years.
| s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 17 这是基于过去的经验和对于未来超级大通膨的预测。
一旦钱布值钱，例如贬值到现在1/5.那么等于你的贷款也贬值为现在的1/5.
选择稍付利息还是现在花掉，应该有个临界点决定哪个更合算。
如果想投资，在现在利率这么低的情况下，手里拿着钱买入HY bond或者等待将来加息
都好过把钱换给银行。这个世界上吃利息差的机会还是不少的。买入一些可以抗通膨的
资产也不错。
总之，如果巴菲特所说的超级大通膨发生了，一手拿着可能暴涨的资产，一手拿着不断
贬值的债务。还是值得一试的。
375
in
【在 s*****j 的大作中提到】
: really cannot get the idea how this works.
: if we only consider the interest, which is the really costs, 30 year 4.375
: the monthly interest is higher than 15 yera 4.0... so, even I only live in
: my hosue for a short time, 15 year is bettern than 30 year, do I get it
: right? the principal part, you either put it into your bank, or to your
: house, does not matter..
| w*******g
发帖数: 9932 | 18 the risk of inflation is low. US government is always able to impose more
taxes
to get the debt under control. Clinton did it in a few years to turn the
mountain
of debt he inherited into surplus.
【在 s*****n 的大作中提到】
: 这是基于过去的经验和对于未来超级大通膨的预测。
: 一旦钱布值钱，例如贬值到现在1/5.那么等于你的贷款也贬值为现在的1/5.
: 选择稍付利息还是现在花掉，应该有个临界点决定哪个更合算。
: 如果想投资，在现在利率这么低的情况下，手里拿着钱买入HY bond或者等待将来加息
: 都好过把钱换给银行。这个世界上吃利息差的机会还是不少的。买入一些可以抗通膨的
: 资产也不错。
: 总之，如果巴菲特所说的超级大通膨发生了，一手拿着可能暴涨的资产，一手拿着不断
: 贬值的债务。还是值得一试的。
:
: 375
| s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 19 超级大通膨是巴菲特预测的。我直觉现在就是类似宇宙大爆炸或者Chao理论。不断的通
缩之后到了一个极弦值，美国政府再也发不出国债，只好采取货币贬值策略，于是能源
粮食猛涨，超级大通膨开始...
【在 w*******g 的大作中提到】
: the risk of inflation is low. US government is always able to impose more
: taxes
: to get the debt under control. Clinton did it in a few years to turn the
: mountain
: of debt he inherited into surplus.
| p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 20 After some calculation, I have determined that 15YR are generally bad.
If you are very uncertain about your future earning powers, your best option
is 30YR fixed. That way, you lock a great rate (from historical point of
view), that inflation will likely ease your debt burden in the future. If
your income streams stopped, you are only obliged to pay a low monthly
payment.
If you are very certain about your future earning powers, your best option
is ARM (e.g. 7YR ARM). If the interest rates go up
【在 s*****j 的大作中提到】
: really cannot get the idea how this works.
: if we only consider the interest, which is the really costs, 30 year 4.375
: the monthly interest is higher than 15 yera 4.0... so, even I only live in
: my hosue for a short time, 15 year is bettern than 30 year, do I get it
: right? the principal part, you either put it into your bank, or to your
: house, does not matter..
|
|
