s*****i
发帖数: 247 | 1 Visa Predictions from Charles Oppenheim
On October 24, 2012, in a meeting with Department of State officials, the
Visa Bulletin predictions were made. The news is glum for the India EB2
priority date, which will not move much the rest of this fiscal year, which
ends September 30, 2013. At best, it is expected that the EB2 category will
not advance beyond the first quarter of 2008, which ends on March 31, 2008.
EB2 China— May advance to the second half of 2008 by end of fiscal year
2013 (which ends on 9/30/13).
EB2 India—There are approximately 20,000 applicants for EB2 visa numbers in
the queue. The annual limit of EB2 visa numbers allocated to India is 2,803
EB2 numbers per year. No forward movement is likely in the foreseeable
future. The best case scenario is that India EB2 will advance to the first
quarter of 2008 by the end of fiscal year 2013. A ten year wait in the EB2
line for India is ever more likely.
EB2—ROW—Will likely remain current for the rest of fiscal year 2013.
EB3 ROW—Will likely advance 3-4 weeks per month during this fiscal year.
Note: There are substantial numbers of upgrades for the entire world from
EB3 to EB2 but the Department of State has no way to know the demand for
upgrade numbers under present USCIS protocols. DOS is not advised of
upgrades until USCIS requests an EB2 visa number for a person already in the
queue for an EB3 number. DOS receives thousands of requests per month from
all countries for upgrades. There will be 1/3 fewer visa numbers able to “
fall across” to India and China this year because of visa number demand
from the rest of the world.
给大家个参考，该干嘛干嘛，也请有关部门监督下这个o呆逼 |
i******t
发帖数: 11048 | 2 前景不妙阿。
which
will
in
803
【在 s*****i 的大作中提到】
: Visa Predictions from Charles Oppenheim
: On October 24, 2012, in a meeting with Department of State officials, the
: Visa Bulletin predictions were made. The news is glum for the India EB2
: priority date, which will not move much the rest of this fiscal year, which
: ends September 30, 2013. At best, it is expected that the EB2 category will
: not advance beyond the first quarter of 2008, which ends on March 31, 2008.
: EB2 China— May advance to the second half of 2008 by end of fiscal year
: 2013 (which ends on 9/30/13).
: EB2 India—There are approximately 20,000 applicants for EB2 visa numbers in
: the queue. The annual limit of EB2 visa numbers allocated to India is 2,803
|
p******8
发帖数: 551 | 3 it seems every month still moves around 50 days. is it right?
Now it is 10/22/07.
01/13 PD : 12/10/07
02/13 PD: 1/31/08 to 2/4/08
03/13 PD: 3/22/08 to 3/25/08
.....
is it right? Any comments? Tired for this kind of thing!!! |
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 4 有这个速度就挺好的了
【在 p******8 的大作中提到】
: it seems every month still moves around 50 days. is it right?
: Now it is 10/22/07.
: 01/13 PD : 12/10/07
: 02/13 PD: 1/31/08 to 2/4/08
: 03/13 PD: 3/22/08 to 3/25/08
: .....
: is it right? Any comments? Tired for this kind of thing!!!
|
c**s
发帖数: 268 | 5 He may change his prediction any time. |
l********e
发帖数: 848 | 6 That's right.
The CO can make a new "prediction" tomorrow.
【在 c**s 的大作中提到】
: He may change his prediction any time.
|
k*****c
发帖数: 1670 | 7 这个大家早就有心理准备了吧？反正，2008年下半年的，至少等到明年下半年。
which
will
in
803
【在 s*****i 的大作中提到】
: Visa Predictions from Charles Oppenheim
: On October 24, 2012, in a meeting with Department of State officials, the
: Visa Bulletin predictions were made. The news is glum for the India EB2
: priority date, which will not move much the rest of this fiscal year, which
: ends September 30, 2013. At best, it is expected that the EB2 category will
: not advance beyond the first quarter of 2008, which ends on March 31, 2008.
: EB2 China— May advance to the second half of 2008 by end of fiscal year
: 2013 (which ends on 9/30/13).
: EB2 India—There are approximately 20,000 applicants for EB2 visa numbers in
: the queue. The annual limit of EB2 visa numbers allocated to India is 2,803
|
f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 8 解读：
1. EB2I 的 20,000 数字严重低估，根据本月 demand data 实际应为 39,300。不过不
怎么影响结论。
2. EB2I 和 EB3I 在 FY2013 年底如果是不同排期(C: second half of 2008; I:
first
quarter of 2008)，意味着 EB2C 不可能分配到 SO。
3. EB2 C/I 的 SO 总数比往年少 1/3。往年 SO 数量：
EB2C EB2I SO (EB2I+EB2C-2803*2)
FY2012* 5850 19700 19944
FY2011 8257 23997 26648
FY2010 6505 19961 20860
FY2009 3045 10106 7545
* 非官方数字来自 http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31813151.html
假如“往年SO”按 20000 个算的话，今年的SO按奥本说法只会有 13000 个左右。根据
demand data估算，这个数字支持“本财年年底中印两国EB2排期都能到2008年中某个时
候”的结论。但是由于上述2，EB2C很可能一个SO都分不到。
4. EB3 前进速度还可能加快。因为奥本所掌握的 EB3 demand data 中有一部分升级了
，而升级的人只有在即将拿 EB2 的绿卡后才能从 demand 数据中取消掉。(DOS is not
advised of upgrades until USCIS requests an EB2 visa number for a person
already in the queue for an EB3 number.) 因此当前 EB3 demand 数据中的人很可
能不再需要 EB3 visa number。这些升级的数量是“thousands of requests per
month from all countries”。
which
will
in
803
【在 s*****i 的大作中提到】
: Visa Predictions from Charles Oppenheim
: On October 24, 2012, in a meeting with Department of State officials, the
: Visa Bulletin predictions were made. The news is glum for the India EB2
: priority date, which will not move much the rest of this fiscal year, which
: ends September 30, 2013. At best, it is expected that the EB2 category will
: not advance beyond the first quarter of 2008, which ends on March 31, 2008.
: EB2 China— May advance to the second half of 2008 by end of fiscal year
: 2013 (which ends on 9/30/13).
: EB2 India—There are approximately 20,000 applicants for EB2 visa numbers in
: the queue. The annual limit of EB2 visa numbers allocated to India is 2,803
|
d********1
发帖数: 1698 | 9 严重同意你的观点！！
既然他预测中国的到08中旬， 印度的到08年1季度，大家看我们自己的DEMAND 就明白
， 我们靠自己的2800。。。就到08年中旬了。
结论是我们连佗屎都分不到。。。
【在 f**u 的大作中提到】
: 解读：
: 1. EB2I 的 20,000 数字严重低估，根据本月 demand data 实际应为 39,300。不过不
: 怎么影响结论。
: 2. EB2I 和 EB3I 在 FY2013 年底如果是不同排期(C: second half of 2008; I:
: first
: quarter of 2008)，意味着 EB2C 不可能分配到 SO。
: 3. EB2 C/I 的 SO 总数比往年少 1/3。往年 SO 数量：
: EB2C EB2I SO (EB2I+EB2C-2803*2)
: FY2012* 5850 19700 19944
: FY2011 8257 23997 26648
|
B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 10 吃不上早在预料之中了
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: 严重同意你的观点！！
: 既然他预测中国的到08中旬， 印度的到08年1季度，大家看我们自己的DEMAND 就明白
: ， 我们靠自己的2800。。。就到08年中旬了。
: 结论是我们连佗屎都分不到。。。
|
|
|
m*******t
发帖数: 1359 | |
r**********u
发帖数: 1343 | 12 co 希望
【在 m*******t 的大作中提到】
: 09年初的pd 希望13年底可以绿...
|
m*******t
发帖数: 1359 | 13 你几月的？
【在 r**********u 的大作中提到】
: co 希望
|
i***4
发帖数: 678 | 14 前几年中印捆绑，老印大口吃肉老中总算还能喝口汤。
【在 d********1 的大作中提到】
: 严重同意你的观点！！
: 既然他预测中国的到08中旬， 印度的到08年1季度，大家看我们自己的DEMAND 就明白
: ， 我们靠自己的2800。。。就到08年中旬了。
: 结论是我们连佗屎都分不到。。。
|
m*******t
发帖数: 1359 | 15 之前都吵着要中印松绑，现在松绑了，又开始怀念SO，无语。。。。 |
f*******8
发帖数: 1430 | 16 没那么乐观。到14年第一季度差不多。
【在 m*******t 的大作中提到】
: 09年初的pd 希望13年底可以绿...
|
m*******t
发帖数: 1359 | |
f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 18 说过很多遍了，“中印捆绑”是果不是因。想从根本上改变现状，必须让奥本改变SO分
配方法。
【在 m*******t 的大作中提到】
: 之前都吵着要中印松绑，现在松绑了，又开始怀念SO，无语。。。。
|
m***k
发帖数: 946 | 19 你觉得奥本会改变么？
【在 f**u 的大作中提到】
: 说过很多遍了，“中印捆绑”是果不是因。想从根本上改变现状，必须让奥本改变SO分
: 配方法。
|
f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 20 不会。
【在 m***k 的大作中提到】
: 你觉得奥本会改变么？
|
|
|
y**********r
发帖数: 2004 | 21 那不就是2013年年末吗
【在 f*******8 的大作中提到】
: 没那么乐观。到14年第一季度差不多。
|
f*c
发帖数: 2726 | 22 EB1，4，5剩下来的 fall down,按理可以分到7%的是不？不过极大可能没有fall down
eb2 row so 就不想了。
【在 f**u 的大作中提到】
: 解读：
: 1. EB2I 的 20,000 数字严重低估，根据本月 demand data 实际应为 39,300。不过不
: 怎么影响结论。
: 2. EB2I 和 EB3I 在 FY2013 年底如果是不同排期(C: second half of 2008; I:
: first
: quarter of 2008)，意味着 EB2C 不可能分配到 SO。
: 3. EB2 C/I 的 SO 总数比往年少 1/3。往年 SO 数量：
: EB2C EB2I SO (EB2I+EB2C-2803*2)
: FY2012* 5850 19700 19944
: FY2011 8257 23997 26648
|
p******8
发帖数: 551 | |
