d*2 发帖数: 2053  1 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumerconfidenceisata13yearhighin
america143433905.html
On Friday, the latest consumer sentiment numbers from the University of
Michigan released Friday showed that in March confidence rose again, as the
index of consumer sentiment rose to 97.6 from a final reading of 96.3 in
February.
Though just below readings seen in January and February, March’s
preliminary reading indicates consumers haven’t been this consistently
confident since early 2004.
“The o... 阅读全帖 

p***w 发帖数: 2  2 Chapter 10 Building SelfConfidence and SelfEsteem
Lacking SelfConfidence
Rachel believed she could never be confident. She was convinced that confident
people had something that she just did not have, like blond hair or long legs.
She was not sure how the differences between her and them allowed their
confidence to remain strong in the face of adversity while hers remained
fragile and elusive, even in good times. She suspected that confidence was
unchangeable because it was written in the sta 

c*****3 发帖数: 3  3 People who are confident shine from their facial expression to their way of
acting. People like to be with selfconfident people and feel thrilled.
Confident people believe in themselves, and believe they are good. They
always hold positive attitude. Confident people are not arrogant, and they
do not feel superior to others. There is a clear line between self
confidence and arrogance.
I realize that I am shy and lack selfconfidence long time ago. But I have
not decided to shake it off until ve 

l******a 发帖数: 3803  4 Confidence among U.S. consumers declined more than forecast in January,
reaching the lowest level in more than a year as higher payroll taxes took a
bigger bite out of Americans’ paychecks.
Enlarge image
Sales grew to $48 billion from Oct. 28 through Dec. 22. Photographer: David
Paul Morris/Bloomberg
3:15
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg)  Karl Case, cocreator of the S&P/CaseShiller index
of property values in 20 U.S. cities, talks about the housing market. The S&
P/CaseShiller index increased 5.5 percen... 阅读全帖 

l****z 发帖数: 29846  5 Confidence among U.S. consumers plunged in August to the lowest level since
May 1980, adding to concern that weak employment gains and volatility in the
stock market will prompt households to retrench.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer
sentiment slumped to 54.9 from 63.7 the prior month. The gauge was projected
to decline to 62, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News
survey.
The biggest oneweek slump in stocks since 2008 and the threat of def... 阅读全帖 

l*****0 发帖数: 299  6 simultaneous和nonsimultaneous confidence bounds for function的区别？
在regression(curve fitting)中，simultaneous和nonsimultaneous confidence
bounds for function的区别是什么？请注意是confidence bounds for function不是
confidence bounds for future observations. matlab里有简短的解释，但很不清楚。
谢谢！ 

b***i 发帖数: 3043  7 2进制数据流，为了验证系统的误码率为1e6一下，需要测多少数据位才能有99.5%的信
心？
这个问题挺难，用公式算了一下，测740万次如果只出现一次误码，则confidence为99.
5%
但是，如果这740万中出现两次误码，则再测下去，到940万只有这两次误码，
confidence还是99.5%,
那么，如果940万次出现三次，再测到1100万次多还是三次，confidence还是大约99.5%,
为了达到误码率以下，则任何次数的测试有个最大误码次数。
那么，这个问题的答案有两个数，即实验次数和误码次数，我到底要测几次才能判断出
99.5%的信心？
要算期望吗？
还是我就规定测1亿次，看是不是某个误码次数以下，就达到confidence， 否则就算不
到？ 

l*****0 发帖数: 299  8 simultaneous和nonsimultaneous confidence bounds for function的区别？
在regression(curve fitting)中，simultaneous和nonsimultaneous confidence
bounds for function的区别是什么？请注意是confidence bounds for function不是
confidence bounds for future observations. matlab里有简短的解释，但很不清楚。
谢谢！ 

a***c 发帖数: 315  9 Rasmussen Consumer Index
After Wall Street Falls Nearly 800 Points, Consumer Confidence RISES
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Email a Friend Email to a Friend
Advertisement
Highlighting the gap between Main Street and Wall Street, the Rasmussen
Consumer Index shows consumer confidence gaining a point on Tuesday morning.
On the day after the economic “rescue” package failed in the House of
Representatives and the stock market fell 800 points, the Index shows that
consumer confidence rose for the thir 

l****z 发帖数: 29846  10 Survey: Managing Partners Losing Confidence in the Economy
The people who head up law firms are, understandably, a little anxious about
the economy, according to a survey out this week from Citi Private Bank.
As the European debt crisis continues to cast a pall over the global economy
, the overall confidence level of managing partners at 79 law firms fell
slightly during the second quarter of 2012, according to Citi. The bank,
which is among the largest law firm lenders, polled managing partner... 阅读全帖 

l****z 发帖数: 29846  11 By Kathleen Madigan
Smaller paychecks and a darker view of labor markets brought U.S. consumer
confidence this month to its lowest reading since November 2011, according
to a report released Tuesday.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer
confidence fell further to 58.6 in January from a revised 66.7 in December,
first reported as 65.1. The January decline was the third consecutive fall
and brought confidence to its lowest reading since November 2011.
Economis... 阅读全帖 

v***g 发帖数: 126  12 Boehner:I'm confident that we'll have a solid work product that we can go to
conference with the Se
The House is going to work its will on immigration. We're not going to be
stampeded by the White House,” House Speaker John Boehner (R) of Ohio told
reporters Thursday. “The House will work its will. Don't ask me how because
if I knew I'd certainly tell you, but ... I'm confident that we'll have a
solid work product that we can go to conference with the Senate.”
The House Republican conference, lo... 阅读全帖 

T*******m 发帖数: 27308  13 本届版务从今年3月份上任以来，到现在刚好满半年了。这几天许多版友就花版的方向
进行了热烈的讨论。作为版主，最重要的一点就是为版上的大多数版友服务。大多数人
的意见和决定，版主要么执行，要么就干脆辞职，让更有德有能的同学来做新的版主。
乘此机会，我想在版上来个vote of （no） confidence，请版上灌水和潜水的农民朋
友积极发言。
我的办版理念很明确：欢迎讨论以gardening和gardener为主的话题，同时也欢迎有关
动物饲养、美酒酿制、品酒品茶、烹饪、音乐、家居、乡情、体育、垂钓和旅游等能为
大家增加生活情趣的话题。任何与gardener有关的帖子（如所见所闻、往事回忆、未来
展望、生儿育女等等），只要不违法，只要不人身攻击，在本版都是受欢迎的。青菜萝
卜，各有所爱。喜欢青菜的，不要讥笑喜欢萝卜长得胖。喜欢萝卜的，不要讥笑青菜没
有萝卜白富美。
我做版主，就是希望看到版面热热闹闹，有关版友的什么帖子都可以发，都受欢迎。如
果大部分版友认同我的理念，我就再做几个月的版主。如果大部分版友不认同我的理念
，我就趁早辞了，让其他同学把花园版办得更好。
本届版务监督体制有这么... 阅读全帖 

l*****0 发帖数: 299  14 原始数据点yi的std err会影响fitted curve的confidence bound吗？
每个原始数据点yi的std err SEi在做regression y(x) = fitResult(x) + ep(x) 时候
会转化成weights: wi = 1/Ni/SEi^2。
请问这些原始数据点的std errs会影响fitted curve的confidence bound吗？
知觉上好像是原始数据点的std errs越大，fitted curve的confidence band越宽，不
知是否正确？
谢谢！ 

a********e 发帖数: 3771  15 【 以下文字转载自 Pre_med 俱乐部 】
发信人: andyzzdlee (麦地之一看二慢三通过), 信区: Pre_med
标 题: MLMW：Humble vs. confidence
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jul 15 01:19:24 2009, 美东)
发信人: MLMW (mylifemyway), 信区: MedicalCareer
标 题: Humble vs. confidence: common pitfalls for Chinese applicants or
students
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 21 19:43:05 2008)
Being humble is a great asset. However, it is very often being misread as
lacking of confidence in the American culture.
So you have to show yourself whenever APPROPRIATE. If you are brillian 

l*****0 发帖数: 299  16 原始数据点yi的std err会影响fitted curve的confidence bound吗？
每个原始数据点yi的std err SEi在做regression y(x) = f(x) + ep(x) 时候会转化成
weights: wi = 1/Ni/SEi^2。
请问这些原始数据点的std errs会影响fitted curve的confidence bound吗？
知觉上好像是原始数据点的std errs越大，fitted curve的confidence band越宽，不
知是否正确？
谢谢！ 

m******a 发帖数: 77  17 大致作法应该是这样的
1. 你有一列数据点(y0, x0), 这里x应理解为N维矢量
你的模型是 y = f(x, c), c 是一列模型参数
在你建模型时, 你是要定出这一列参数 c, 同时你还应该得到对应的 Covariance
Matrix
通常的软件都提供这些信息
2. 有了Covariance Matrix后, 你可以生成很多列参数 c,
下面实际是作一些 Monte Carlo 模拟,
对应每一个数据点, 你都有很多 prediction  因为每列c 给一个prediction
因此, 如果你有 D 个数据点的话,
你得到 D by D 的一个Covariance Matrix M 别和前面的Covariance Matrix混淆
3. 现在你可以算出来 ChiSquare
SUM( (y0  y) M^1 (y0  y) )
同时, D 就是你的自由度数
有了这两个, 查表就知道你的 confidence level, 就是你的模型有多可靠
4. 关于你说的 confidence interval... 阅读全帖 

z***e 发帖数: 5600  18 Trump had "full confidence" in Flynn one day before Flynn resigned
Well, total confidence is different! 

S*********g 发帖数: 24893  19 Trump has ‘total confidence’ in Sessions
Conway: Trump has ‘full confidence’ in Flynn 

S*********g 发帖数: 24893  20 Trump has ‘total confidence’ in Sessions
Conway: Trump has ‘full confidence’ in Flynn 

z**********3 发帖数: 11979  21 Consumer Confidence in U.S. Unexpectedly Dropped in November
Bloomberg  43 minutes ago
Consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in November to a fivemonth low as
Americans became less upbeat about the economy and labor market. 

t***s 发帖数: 163  22 http://www.ebri.org/pdf/briefspdf/EBRI_IB_04a20075.pdf
Executive Summary
• Workers slow to see or adapt to a changing U.S. retirement
system: The 17th annual wave of the Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS)
suggests that American workers may be slow to recognize how the U.S.
retirement system is changing, and those who are aware of these changes may
not be adapting to them in ways that are likely to secure them a comfortable
retirement.
• Half of workers less confident abo 

r******o 发帖数: 1530  23 >> Why the Consumer Confidence Number is Misleading
The headlines this morning have been focused on the sharp decline in
Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey. Results for "February" showed
a decline to 46 from the January report of 56.5. This might lead some to
believe there has been a sharp deterioration in the outlook; it has
certainly done that on Wall Street. However, as is all too often the case, I
think these headlines are misleading.
The problem here is very few people have taken 

j***4 发帖数: 3119  24 i don't see any improvement in defense. they played with no confidence, that
's why I lost my confidence too.
team
lost 

j***4 发帖数: 3119  25 no confidence is not ok! If a secondary don't have confidence, you are not
going to stop anyone.
I think our player played hard. they just don't know how to play D. what a
shame. i feel bad for those kids 

l*******o 发帖数: 12469  26 亮点在最后阿
Chinese dragon breathing fire again
(FIFA.com) Thursday 25 August 2011
Zhao Peng headed home the only goal as China PR defeated Jamaica at home in
a downpour a little over a fortnight ago. That friendly triumph, allied with
their 61 secondleg 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™ qualifying victory
over Laos, saw the east Asians continue their upward trajectory on the FIFA/
CocaCola World Ranking, moving four places to 69.
This position, China’s highest since the inception of the new ranki... 阅读全帖 

l********s 发帖数: 522  27 http://nypost.com/2014/09/05/coachmichaelchangconfidentnish
By Marc Berman
September 5, 2014  1:46am
Former American great Michael Chang arrived too late to see Japan’s Kei
Nishikori play live at the U.S. Open last year. Chang, a Hall of Famer,
arrived the second week to play the elder Champions event. Nishikori had
lost in the first round.
But Nishikori’s agent asked Chang during the 2013 Open if he would be
willing to come aboard as coach. They had played against each other in an
exhibiti... 阅读全帖 

l*****0 发帖数: 299  28 matlab中的robust fit可以画confidence bound for function吗？
Least square fit是可以画confidence bound for function的。robust fit也可以画
吗？
谢谢！ 

e****e 发帖数: 677  29 我现在有一组数据，20个sample
根据某个分布（比如student't）来求其confidence interval不难
现在有个问题
就是这些数据是在一定丢包率下测得的质量指数
比如丢包率为10%的情况下测得
但是丢包率是用一个系统实现的，这个系统不能严格的实现10%的丢包率，
其丢包率是一个二项式分布，也就是这20个sample的前提丢包率是随机的，不一定为
10%
这种情况下如何确定 10%丢包率下的质量指数以及confidence interval?
谢谢 

b*********n 发帖数: 182  30 Sorry, don't have Chinese input here.
Is there anyone who knows how to put a confidence interval curve on a KM
curve? (kind of get a confidence range for all the points on a KM curve)
Thanks. 

k***o 发帖数: 55  31 I assume you are looking for a pointwise confidence interval, if so, you
can compute the estimated asymptotic variance from your data pointbypoint
and use the standard confidence interval formula with tdistribution to
obtain your CI's.
If you are looking for a uniform CI for the whole KM curve, sorry I have no
idea how to do that. 

C*****n 发帖数: 1872  32 一个time series T
我首先用differencing去掉trend
然后用arma model fitting
最后预测得到n步的mean和confidence interval
请问我怎样转换confidence interval，去掉differencing
多谢！ 

z********n 发帖数: 710  33 用proc surveylogistic 出来的结果里面
wald confidence limits 的区间很大：
for instance:
point estimate
3.31
95% wald confidence limits:
0.514  21.300
这种情况是不是sample size太小的缘故呢?非常感谢！ 

j*****e 发帖数: 182  34 Confidence level means how confident you are with your method.
A 95% CI means if you repeat this experiment many times, say counting the
total number of success out of 6 tries many times, 95% of the CI will
contain the true parameter (p). This is basic knowledge in an introlevel
stat class.
Of course, in reality, you only did the experiment once. So, you believe
your CI is good and does contain p.
I didn't plug values into the formula given by Agresti, but supposely, the
95% CI based on 6 succe 

g******n 发帖数: 339  35 The question is: a CI for what?
When people say the confidence interval of x, in general x is a unknown
parameter, say the population mean, not a random variable. 95% CI of Y^2: A
confidence interval of a random variable? It is possible but rarely in the
general context, and in these cases they may have to called by other names
such as the prediction intervals etc.
If a 95% CI of a parameter x =(L,U), then the 95% CI for the parameter x^2=(
L^2, U^2), provided that the transformation x>x^2 is o 

e****e 发帖数: 677  36 我现在有一组数据，20个sample
根据某个分布（比如student't）来求其confidence interval不难
现在有个问题
就是这些数据是在一定丢包率下测得的质量指数
比如丢包率为10%的情况下测得
但是丢包率是用一个系统实现的，这个系统不能严格的实现10%的丢包率，
其丢包率是一个二项式分布，也就是这20个sample的前提丢包率是随机的，不一定为
10%
这种情况下如何确定 10%丢包率下的质量指数以及confidence interval?
谢谢 

l***o 发帖数: 5337  37 如果我们能分别估计出 X 和 Y 的confidence interval，怎么构建 X/Y 的confidence
interval？ X和Y都是关于population的未知常量。谢谢！ 

j*****e 发帖数: 182  38 You are confusing the random variable with its parameter.
If your X and Y are binary, they can be modeled by bernoullie with parameter
p_x and p_y. So, you must be interested in estimating the confidence
interval for p_x/p_y. Note that X and Y are random variables, there is so
confidence interval regarding X/Y.
Denote the estimator of p_x is p_x_hat. That for p_y is p_y_hat.
If your sample size is large enough, the point estimator for p_x/p_y is p_x_
hat/p_y_hat. The SE for this estimator can be... 阅读全帖 

l*****0 发帖数: 299  39 matlab中的robust fit可以画confidence bound for function吗？
Least square fit是可以画confidence bound for function的。robust fit也可以画
吗？
谢谢！ 

T*********e 发帖数: 39815  40 发信人: lauderdream (一泓清水), 信区: Food
标 题: Shopping with Confidence  wine
发信站: The unknown SPACE (Thu Apr 19 12:09:12 2001) WWWPOST
Shopping with Confidence
The same ease you reach in dealing with sommeliers in
restaurants should be reached when dealing with The Wine
Merchant. It's easy to think your way into this: Some stores
sell hardware. Some stores sell stationery. Wine stores sell
wine, and of course their owners and employees know a lot
about the merchandise. Even a wine expert would b 

v******a 发帖数: 45075  41 I don't know much about Japanese culture aside from the common
knowledge that it were inherited from ours. The paper, interestingly
enough, didn't include South Korea and Japan. I would boldly conjecture
that Japanese respondents won't be so overconfident. In fact, they may
well show some underconfidence.
If my conjecture is true, what explains this? 

l****z 发帖数: 29846  42 Americans are more pessimistic about the state of the country and less
confident in President Barack Obama's leadership than at any point since Mr.
Obama entered the White House, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC
News poll.
The survey also shows grave and growing concerns about the Gulf oil spill,
with overwhelming majorities of adults favoring stronger regulation of the
oil industry and believing that the spill will affect the nation's economy
and environment.
Sixtytwo percent of adul 

l****z 发帖数: 29846  43
By Cynthia Lin
U.S. consumers soured on the economy in August as their outlook on business
and job prospects declined, according to a report released Tuesday.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer
confidence fell to 60.6 in August–the lowest reading since November 2011–
from a revised 65.4 in July, first reported as 65.9. The latest index falls
short of the 66.0 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
The decline contrasts with a midAugus... 阅读全帖 

l****z 发帖数: 29846  44 by Jammie
One would think after five years of economic misery under Obama these media
clowns would lose the “unexpectedly” shtick. Next thing you’ll know they
’ll tell us ObamaCare unexpectedly failed.
Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in November to a
sevenmonth low as Americans grew more pessimistic about the labormarket
outlook.
The Conference Board’s index fell to 70.4 from a revised 72.4 a month
earlier that was stronger than initially estimated, the New Yorkb... 阅读全帖 

m****g 发帖数: 2215  45 http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/tedcruzcampaignnervous
Ted Cruz is speaking confidently about knocking off Donald Trump to take the
GOP nomination, but his top staffers admit they’re getting nervous.
In interviews, several aides, speaking on the condition of anonymity,
expressed growing alarm that Cruz would lose Indiana’s primary on Tuesday
— an outcome that would be a major blow to his hopes of holding Trump below
the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination on the party
co... 阅读全帖 

i**********k 发帖数: 5274  46 “total confidence"，哇，蠢逼连这都要改。ldy你那回子老婆今晚需要三通吗？ 

b********e 发帖数: 1100  47 Trump没有说过对Flynn有confidence，只是说过他是一个好人 

发帖数: 1  48 怕你英文不行看不懂，我自作多情了
: “total confidence"，哇，蠢逼连这都要改。


w*******e 发帖数: 271  49 Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, said he was confident the
Justice Department would bolster Mr. Trump’s unproven accusation about his
predecessor. 

N*******M 发帖数: 3963  50 confidence level = speculation
不要太当真 
